Coronavirus - Model was wrong and drastically downgrades projections

[Thin Lizzy]

This the same thing as climate change reporting.  People take the improbable, highly unlikely, worst case scenarios and blast it out like there's a high probability of it happening.  The climate thing doesn't ever stick and cause real panic amongst the masses because there's no tangible bodies to be seen.  There's only two possible scenarios here. 1.  All the modeling was done with poor data and assumptions and this virus is not near the threat people made it out to be or 2. It's a serious virus and President Trump and his team have done a great job mitigating it.  

Solid post. It’s #1:

Here is a new York city health official, on February 9, prodding people to go to chinatown for a parade:



Mark D. Levine
@MarkLevineNYC
In powerful show of defiance of #coronavirus scare, huge crowds gathering in NYC's Chinatown for ceremony ahead of annual #LunarNewYear parade. Chants of "be strong Wuhan!"

If you are staying away, you are missing out!

[loco]

This the same thing as climate change reporting.  People take the improbable, highly unlikely, worst case scenarios and blast it out like there's a high probability of it happening.  The climate thing doesn't ever stick and cause real panic amongst the masses because there's no tangible bodies to be seen.  There's only two possible scenarios here. 1.  All the modeling was done with poor data and assumptions and this virus is not near the threat people made it out to be or 2. It's a serious virus and President Trump and his team have done a great job mitigating it.  

[IroNat]

And when all the 40 and 50 yearolds who are obese, smoke, drink etc need hospital treatment to recover from the virus, but there aren't enough beds, doctors and nurses available to treat them. What happens to them?

[harmankardon1]

Holy shit what a gif^

[Thin Lizzy]

It is possible to have one medical condition and die from a second, entirely different condition.  In that sense, it is not incorrect to say he died from COVID pneumonia.  You are right though in that the leukemia was almost certainly a huge factor in his death

Your point would be valid except for one thing: not everyone has symptoms. In the guardian piece posted below, it cites an Iceland study that shows an asymptomatic rate of 50%. With that said, how do you know that you wouldn’t have had the other symptoms even if you didn’t have the virus. People did get colds before corona: right?



https://amp.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/mar/23/have-i-already-had-covid19-coronavirus

Could I have had it and been asymptomatic?
Hillmann: Coronavirus is actually quite a significant spectrum of symptoms, from people who are entirely asymptomatic and would have no idea that they have it to people with very mild, cold-like symptoms – runny nose, congestion, sore throat – to people with more flu-like symptoms – high fevers, muscle aches, shortness of breath and cough. All the way up to people with severe illness, who we’re seeing in the hospital with respiratory failure, requiring ICU care. (Editor’s note: recent reports suggest that loss of smell and taste are also signs of Covid-19 infection.)

[nzgs]

This has nothing to do with his model being wrong. The 500,000 UK deaths and 2.2 million US deaths were assuming worst case scenarios if no action were taken. Action however has been taken so now you add those to the model, plus any other new data.

No offence, but you need to read and understand both papers before commenting on this.

Only an imbecile believes the original numbers. 96% of people with covid have mild symptoms that don't require hospitalisation. Even if every single person in the UK contracted the virus (which is ridiculous) you would only have 4.4% of people with severe conditions and only a small proportion of these will die, which is nowhere near 500k. Almost no one currently with covid is being tested, they are being told to stay at home unless it gets serious.

I am sick to death of these "experts" never being held accountable for their politically-motivated anti-science. This is on the same scale of delusion as the NASA scientists who said the arctic would disappear by 2013.

[Necrosis]

And when all the 40 and 50 yearolds who are obese, smoke, drink etc need hospital treatment to recover from the virus, but there aren't enough beds, doctors and nurses available to treat them. What happens to them?

This is the problem that the tarts cant see. Good luck US, your leadership is atrocious.

[Flexacon]

Only an imbecile believes the original numbers. 96% of people with covid have mild symptoms that don't require hospitalisation. Even if every single person in the UK contracted the virus (which is ridiculous) you would only have 4.4% of people with severe conditions and only a small proportion of these will die, which is nowhere near 500k. Almost no one currently with covid is being tested, they are being told to stay at home unless it gets serious.

I am sick to death of these "experts" never being held accountable for their politically-motivated anti-science. This is on the same scale of delusion as the NASA scientists who said the arctic would disappear by 2013.

Only a small proportion die because those with severe conditions are able to receive medical attention. Remove that medical attention, which is what happens if too many are infected at the same time and suddenly it's not such a small proportion dying. The  motive behind this particular experts original numbers was to stop this happening.

I agree though experts need to be called out and this particular one was by some Oxford academics. What we don't need are morons who haven't even read his paper doing it.

[Thin Lizzy]

This is the problem that the tarts cant see. Good luck US, your leadership is atrocious.

Canadians are so fucking clueless. The reason for the run on hospitals is not because of the virus itself but because of the fucking three weeks of nonstop hammering. Do you not think this has had an effect? Everybody with a fucking stuffy nose and a sore throat is going to the hospital. That’s the problem.

Why did all this fear and hysteria have to be ginned up. Take a wild fucking guess:


House leaders look to expedite $2.2 trillion relief package but face possibility that one GOP lawmaker may delay passage - The Washington Post

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/03/26/senate-trump-coronavirus-economic-stimulus-2-trillion/

[Necrosis]

Canadians are so fucking clueless. The reason for the run on hospitals is not because of the virus itself but because of the fucking three weeks of nonstop hammering. Do you not think this has had an effect? Everybody with a fucking stuffy nose and a sore throat is going to the hospital. That’s the problem.

Why did all this fear and hysteria have to be ginned up. Take a wild fucking guess:


House leaders look to expedite $2.2 trillion relief package but face possibility that one GOP lawmaker may delay passage - The Washington Post

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/03/26/senate-trump-coronavirus-economic-stimulus-2-trillion/

Conspiracy theories are always a safe bet!

[Thin Lizzy]

Conspiracy theories are always a safe bet!

It’s not intelligence you lack. It’s Street smarts. $2.2 trillion is bigger than the GDP of your whole fucking country. Only a naive doofus would think that this is on the up and up.

[Bevo]

We certainly have everything on getbig, from millionaires, to MMA experts, a guy that turned down Carmen Electra, medical experts, Bitcoin millionaires, bunny suits, biceps machines, Vince Goodrum PHD CNN MSNBC

Unbelievable getbiggers

[el numero uno]

It’s not intelligence you lack. It’s Street smarts. $2.2 trillion is bigger than the GDP of your whole fucking country. Only a naive doofus would think that this is on the up and up.

The lock downs have been/are being implemented in many countries, not just the US.

Most of Europe and South America is now in quarantine.

Of all countries, only the US is passing a a rescue package.

[Army of One]

If the virus was spread that far and wide, Boris Johnson and Matt Hancock would have got it weeks/months ago with the hundreds of people they meet per week, and hundreds of people those people they meet per week.Same with Prince Charles.The fact they all get it now at the same time tells me the original numbers predicted are correct, and the time it exploded in the media, hospitals began seeing numbers, with everyone bringing it from Italy to the UK from holiday/vacation, is no coincidence.

Still very much the start spread wide unless social distancing can keep it down after the next 3 weeks.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8159701/Boris-Johnson-tests-positive-coronavirus-crisis-grips-UK.html

[hardgainerj]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect

[hardgainerj]

https://www.dailywire.com/news/epidemiologist-behind-highly-cited-coronavirus-model-admits-he-was-wrong-drastically-revises-model

Epidemiologist Neil Ferguson, who created the highly-cited Imperial College London coronavirus model, which has been cited by organizations like The New York Times and has been instrumental in governmental policy decision-making, offered a massively downgraded projection of the potential death toll on Wednesday.

instead of posting a site for good-goyim provide the current up to date research

[Thin Lizzy]

The lock downs have been/are being implemented in many countries, not just the US.

Most of Europe and South America is now in quarantine.

Of all countries, only the US is passing a a rescue package.

The  individual countries in Europe can’t pass rescue package as they don’t have their own currencies. It has to be done by the EU via the central bank. Please just stop and cut your losses. It’s getting embarrassing:



ECB shakes off limits on new €750bn bond buying plan

https://www.ft.com/content/d775a99e-13b2-444e-8de5-fd2ec6caf4bf

“They are saying to countries like Italy ‘we have got your back’,” said Iain Stealey, international chief investment officer for fixed income at JPMorgan Asset Management, which favours peripheral eurozone bonds in its portfolios. “It’s been a painful few days. But now, although we are not back to levels [of before the coronavirus crisis] we are not a million miles away

[hardgainerj]

reminder this is what daily wire's editor-in-chief believes



https://twitter.com/benshapiro/status/812900304865804288

USS Liberty incident was no big deal

=997

the supposed Jesus of Nazareth was justifiably executed by the Romans

[Army of One]

Just passed 25k deaths.

[el numero uno]

The  individual countries in Europe can’t pass rescue package as they don’t have their own currencies. It has to be done by the EU via the central bank.
Please just stop and cut your losses. It’s getting embarrassing:

Of course it has to be done by the EU captain obvious. How is this an argument that they (the UE) can't do it?

ECB shakes off limits on new €750bn bond buying plan

https://www.ft.com/content/d775a99e-13b2-444e-8de5-fd2ec6caf4bf

“They are saying to countries like Italy ‘we have got your back’,” said Iain Stealey, international chief investment officer for fixed income at JPMorgan Asset Management, which favours peripheral eurozone bonds in its portfolios. “It’s been a painful few days. But now, although we are not back to levels [of before the coronavirus crisis] we are not a million miles away

Many countries have been offered loans, how is this proof of anything?

Drop off the tin foil hat. Nothing you write makes any damn sense.

[Al Doggity]

House leaders look to expedite $2.2 trillion relief package but face possibility that one GOP lawmaker may delay passage - The Washington Post

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/03/26/senate-trump-coronavirus-economic-stimulus-2-trillion/

So, I started a thread about this, but you never responded, so I'll just continue it here.

The theory that you've stated over and over is that the stimulus package is a covert way to devalue the dollar.  I don't understand this could hold any water.

1) Firstly, whose plan is this? Is it a dem plan, repub plan, businesses, a secret cabal?

2)Trump has wanted to devalue the dollar for several years and has been vocal about it. He has publicly feuded with the fed about it. Why would his administration not be taking this opportunity to- at the very least- casually mention that the stimulus will help weaken the dollar?

3)There are transparent ways to weaken the dollar and treas and gov have been openly exploring them.

4)Almost every valuation of the dollars' strength relies on international exchange.  Almost all of the stim money will be distributed domestically and will have a negligible impact on the dollars' strength.

5) No one- not america, not other economies- want the dollar  to surge like it's been surging the last few weeks. It's the world's dominant and safest asset, so when it surges it hurts the entire global economy, especially at a time like this.

6)The stimulus is not a result of exhaustion of debt, it's a rush to liquidity. Debt is one of the world economy's biggest profit drivers.

I just don't get this idea that something that everyone publicly wants (a weaker dollar) is something that the gov would have to come up with a conspiracy to secretly get.

[m8]

Blame idiots like Romano. "Just a flu, bro", "Get back to work", "Just kills old people, lock them up bro". I'm not even in the U.S but I knew this would backfire.

[Thin Lizzy]

So, I started a thread about this, but you never responded, so I'll just continue it here.

The theory that you've stated over and over is that the stimulus package is a covert way to devalue the dollar.  I don't understand this could hold any water.

1) Firstly, whose plan is this? Is it a dem plan, repub plan, businesses, a secret cabal?

2)Trump has wanted to devalue the dollar for several years and has been vocal about it. He has publicly feuded with the fed about it. Why would his administration not be taking this opportunity to- at the very least- casually mention that the stimulus will help weaken the dollar?

3)There are transparent ways to weaken the dollar and treas and gov have been openly exploring them.

4)Almost every valuation of the dollars' strength relies on international exchange.  Almost all of the stim money will be distributed domestically and will have a negligible impact on the dollars' strength.

5) No one- not america, not other economies- want the dollar  to surge like it's been surging the last few weeks. It's the world's dominant and safest asset, so when it surges it hurts the entire global economy, especially at a time like this.

6)The stimulus is not a result of exhaustion of debt, it's a rush to liquidity. Debt is one of the world economy's biggest profit drivers.

I just don't get this idea that something that everyone publicly wants (a weaker dollar) is something that the gov would have to come up with a conspiracy to secretly get.

Al, I’m not gonna get into a long drawn out debate with you about this. I’m going to explain it simply and then that’s it. If you agree, fine. If you disagree, that’s cool too.

The federal government is already running a deficit. Expenses are greater than revenues. So where are they going to get the 2 trillion? They’re going to issue bonds which the Fed is going to buy with money that they print, and that inflates the currency.

The reason the dollar is not gonna lose value in terms of other currencies is because every other country is doing it too. It’s a worldwide currency devaluation. The exchange rate between the dollar and the euro right now is exactly the same as it was five years ago. It’s not surging.

Regarding who is involved in this. Let’s look at who benefits. The financial establishment, the healthcare establishment, and the political class. Republicans and Democrats voted for this unanimously. They fight like cats and dogs but when it comes to spending money they’re all on the same page.

That’s it in a nut shell.  There’s no need to write a book about it.

[Al Doggity]

Al, I’m not gonna get into a long drawn out debate with you about this. I’m going to explain it simply and then that’s it. If you agree, fine. If you disagree, that’s cool too.

Considering how much you've posted about it over several different threads, just assumed it was a topic you actually wanted to get into. 

I just don't see it. You can pass it off as reasonable until you start looking at actual details, then it just makes no sense at all.

[Thin Lizzy]

you really need to be an intellectual equal of Lizzy to argue with him

This😂

The name of this board is gossip and opinions. Not gossip, opinions and endless, pointless debates that make me lose my will to live.