Remember the article about the death toll predictions being revised? Every Getbigger which had claimed Covid-19 was just another flu concluded that the model was wrong, even thou the article clearly stated that was not the case. That, my friend, is also confirmation bias.
That model was wrong. On page 14 it states "to avoid a rebound in transmission, these policies will need to need to be maintained until large stocks of vaccine are available to immunize the population- which would be 18 months or more." The whole point of his model was based off of long shutdowns.
He revised his model when we did not meet anywhere near that time and his best case scenario was based on months and months of lockdowns.
He revised it after 2 days of shutdown in UK so no data was even in yet, so his new data could not have been based on that either.
You can't go by the article you have to go by what he originally stated and showed. He tried to save face and that's it.
There are also graphs in the link showing that there are no scenarios in which critical care beds are not overwhelmed. There was one way that maybe they would not be and that was with 5 months of complete shutdown yet his newest model showed that that was no longer the case.
Here is his original:
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf?fbclid=IwAR15h5oAjwjwryZZIwwI2cKgmUfhl15DTnycPjYNajyFFFMqL0-PwfwtY6kHe messed up badly on that model and many people bought into it. Also, of the 20,000 that he now says will die in UK, 2/3rds would have died anyway according to him.