Coronavirus - Model was wrong and drastically downgrades projections

[Army of One]

You can keep chasing the story all you want, the politicians in Washington have moved on. All they care about right now is spending the money.

The mayor and governor in New York didn’t give a shit about corona until word came down that there was gonna be a stimulus package. At that point, it became the most important thing in the world and nobody could get within 6 feet of each other.

What story?It's just the facts.A virus nobody had heard of 3 months ago is now the biggest killing transmissible disease in the world, that's not a story, that's a fact.If you think thats nothing, then you clearly have a very warped view of what is normal.

[Thin Lizzy]

What story?It's just the facts.A virus nobody had heard of 3 months ago is now the biggest killing transmissible disease in the world, that's not a story, that's a fact.If you think thats nothing, then you are clearly have a very warped view of what is normal.

We can go back-and-forth about the data forever. One thing that is beyond debate is the fact that trillions of dollars have recently been printed. And if you think there’s nothing else going on beneath the surface you’re completely clueless as to how the world really works.

[mazrim]

Some of you guys are ridiculous and cannot admit you were wrong and are the type of people I now look at as completely unreasonable and ones to look out for if something really bad actually does come about in our country. You will completely meltdown and be a danger to the rest of us. He was wrong and many, many have been pointing this out for weeks now.

"In order to save face, Ferguson told members of Parliament that part of his calculous is that the lockdown measures are helping. But the problem is, as former NYT reporter Alex Berenson observed, those measures were not implemented until two days ago. The backbone of Ferguson’s new projection is constructed on a fact that has been built into the equation for months."

https://www.conservativereview.com/news/horowitz-man-spooked-world-coronavirus-model-walks-back-prediction/?fbclid=IwAR1gMHyE6-7dfvTHx4GK88SzekT2dtw3-KAcjU8ewDLKE2zsjjnTt8CxQi0

[mazrim]

We can go back-and-forth about the data forever. One thing that is beyond debate is the fact that trillions of dollars have recently been printed. And if you think there’s nothing else going on beneath the surface you’re completely clueless as to how the world really works.

You get it.

They messed up royally (both intentionally and unintentionally) and will never admit it and also took the opportunity for the gullible sheeplike crowds to push their agenda for them by not looking at the data for themselves and only reading headlines. Both parties are at fault for this. They will be praised by over 50% of the country when in reality they caused a bigger issue than what was there.

[Dave D]

If a virus spreads and eventually infects 80% of the population with no measures in place before burning out, then the difference in rates doesn't  matter.

Let's say I eat a plate of spaghetti in 2.5 minutes and my belly will be 80% full. If I eat it is 3 minutes my belly will still be 80% full. No difference.

He admitted he was wrong about the rate the virus spread. He used Chinese numbers which was around 2.5, it now looks more like 3. This however doesn't change his original 500k or 2.2m claim

Ok.

So the original media article was correct and I am wrong there is no spin......

[Flexacon]

Ok.

So the original media article was correct and I am wrong there is no spin......

I wasn't talking about spin in this thread. I was saying people who don't understand the paper or haven't read it should avoid commenting on it.

[SOMEPARTS]

There will be more conspiracies about this thing than ten 9/11s put together...

[chaos]

Create panic and fear with bullshit model and scare tactics, force people to lockdown "for their own good", tell them to "social distance" if they do go outside, convince the media and government that millions will die, then when they don't die, claim your "social distancing" is working.
Majority of people in CA are still out in public, interacting with each other and living their lives. The POS governor that slept with his best friends wife claimed 22.5 millions Californians would be infected.
Over 40 million people in California, as of 3-26, there were 4,000 cases. You do the math.

[tommywishbone]

  

Well color me surprised. It's all just a crying baby with a diaper rash.

 

[Dave D]

https://www.dailywire.com/news/epidemiologist-behind-highly-cited-coronavirus-model-admits-he-was-wrong-drastically-revises-model

I wasn't talking about spin in this thread. I was saying people who don't understand the paper or haven't read it should avoid commenting on it.

Yes well people who read the highlighted link first, as many do or in most cases only headlines, would have a massively different opinion than the truth. Hence the media created a false narrative.

That said the majority of people dont know all the information or understand the facts, for anything.

Getbig has the experts and even they are mocked. Army and Gib were the first ones to warn us about this virus and for the most part they were correct, and they’re still ridiculed.

Misinformed opinions are what this place is about. Welcome to Getbig.

[Army of One]

Imagine the denial and cope to think the speed of growth and amount is nothing to worry about.

[Mayday]

Not only was the model wrong but the tests are shit.

A lot of debate here about the tests because the numbers for something so infectious are so tiny.

I posted about my neighbour who is a doctor at a hospital told me 8000 people rock up and only 40 test positive.

It's already everywhere. If they built a model under incorrect assumptions in exposure then estimated mortality rates will be incorrect (ie formulated to high).

[harmankardon1]

Create panic and fear with bullshit model and scare tactics, force people to lockdown "for their own good", tell them to "social distance" if they do go outside, convince the media and government that millions will die, then when they don't die, claim your "social distancing" is working.
Majority of people in CA are still out in public, interacting with each other and living their lives. The POS governor that slept with his best friends wife claimed 22.5 millions Californians would be infected.
Over 40 million people in California, as of 3-26, there were 4,000 cases. You do the math.

You said it brother, total crock of shit!

This level of hysterics is unmatched in human history.

[Army of One]

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-8157437/If-world-not-responded-coronavirus-immediately-killed-40-million.html

[Mayday]

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-8157437/If-world-not-responded-coronavirus-immediately-killed-40-million.html

I can play with numbers to.

Australia has a 1.4% positive coronavirus rate in testing.

Australia has done 163,000 tests.

Australia has been open (still is compared to the wider world) and is behind everybody else in closures.

The conclusion therefore is there is a virus out there that is almost 100x more infectious than coronvairus which is sending floods of Australian population into hospitals.

OR..... the test kits don't work and corona virus is everywhere. If they are not factoring that into their models, fatality rate is skewed to high giving total bullshit death predictions.

[G_Thang]

[Thin Lizzy]

I can play with numbers to.

Australia has a 1.4% positive coronavirus rate in testing.

Australia has done 163,000 tests.

Australia has been open (still is compared to the wider world) and is behind everybody else in closures.

The conclusion therefore is there is a virus out there that is almost 100x more infectious than coronvairus which is sending floods of Australian population into hospitals.

OR..... the test kits don't work and corona virus is everywhere. If they are not factoring that into their models, fatality rate is skewed to high giving total bullshit death predictions.

Apparently, the model is off because Ferguson didn’t take into account the social distancing practices that would be put into place. Here’s one that took place in New York City on February 2. The health commissioner encouraging people to go to a parade in Chinatown.


Commissioner Oxiris Barbot

@NYCHealthCommr

As we gear up to celebrate the ‪#LunarNewYear‬ in NYC, I want to assure New Yorkers that there is no reason for anyone to change their holiday plans, avoid the subway, or certain parts of the city because of ‪#coronavirus‬.

[G_Thang]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rDpsm971NQQ

Someone said, he had not seen many AA deaths.  Piss poor reporting, given they didn't include underling health issues.  The 2 sisters were obese. I'm assuming they were diabetics.  If you are type 1 or 2, hide in a closet too.

[Thin Lizzy]

See my post above this.

The R value doesn't change the predicted number of deaths if no measures are taken.

Here’s another measure taken. On March 09, the mayor of New York City saying that he has no plans to cancel the St. Patrick’s Day parade which typically draws about 2 million people into the city and packs the bars. You couldn’t have an event more conducive for the spreading of a contagious virus.


Mayor says NYC has no plans to cancel St. Patrick’s Day Parade as Ireland cancels Dublin’s parade amid coronavirus fears

https://www.silive.com/coronavirus/2020/03/mayor-says-nyc-has-no-plans-to-cancel-st-patricks-day-parade-as-ireland-cancels-dublins-parade-amid-coronavirus-fears.html

[Thin Lizzy]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rDpsm971NQQ

Someone said, he had not seen many AA deaths.  Piss poor reporting, given they didn't include underling health issues.  The 2 sisters were obese. I'm assuming they were diabetics.  If you are type 1 or 2, hide in a closet too.

This is how the scam works. If you get a positive test reading, the cause of death is corona and nothing else counts.

There was a story about a 20-year-old who died of corona. Turned out he also had leukemia.

[pellius]

Meanwhile, Sweden is operating pretty much as normal and leaving it up to the individual to take care of themselves and follow the recommendations, not orders, from the government.

It will be interesting to see how it goes for them.

https://reason.com/2020/03/25/despite-coronavirus-sweden-refuses-to-shutter-businesses-and-limit-gatherings/

[harmankardon1]

I can play with numbers to.

Australia has a 1.4% positive coronavirus rate in testing.

Australia has done 163,000 tests.

Australia has been open (still is compared to the wider world) and is behind everybody else in closures.

The conclusion therefore is there is a virus out there that is almost 100x more infectious than coronvairus which is sending floods of Australian population into hospitals.

OR..... the test kits don't work and corona virus is everywhere. If they are not factoring that into their models, fatality rate is skewed to high giving total bullshit death predictions.

Australia has been more or less shut up the last 5 days...

163000 tests just shows how many people catch colds flu etc in these timeframes and that coronavirus is accounting for 1.5% of people displaying these types of symptoms. The rest have other viral or bacterial infections.

[oldtimer1]

24,057 have been killed world wide since the virus was recognized which is the estimate from the WHO, CDC, ECDC, and NHC. Don't trust a meme with phony graphs made by someone in their mom's basement. 1290 are the amount of deaths in the US since the virus began.  These numbers are accurate as of 3-27-2020. They are not daily numbers but the total since the virus was made aware to the world.

[ProudVirgin69]

This is how the scam works. If you get a positive test reading, the cause of death is corona and nothing else counts.

There was a story about a 20-year-old who died of corona. Turned out he also had leukemia.

It is possible to have one medical condition and die from a second, entirely different condition.  In that sense, it is not incorrect to say he died from COVID pneumonia.  You are right though in that the leukemia was almost certainly a huge factor in his death

[bigkid]

This the same thing as climate change reporting.  People take the improbable, highly unlikely, worst case scenarios and blast it out like there's a high probability of it happening.  The climate thing doesn't ever stick and cause real panic amongst the masses because there's no tangible bodies to be seen.  There's only two possible scenarios here. 1.  All the modeling was done with poor data and assumptions and this virus is not near the threat people made it out to be or 2. It's a serious virus and President Trump and his team have done a great job mitigating it.