Author Topic: Elon Musk believes AI will overtake humans within 5 years, end of workcelling?  (Read 6559 times)

ElPolloSalmonello

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Strong AI wont happen. Machines already have far more computational power than humans, yet they're still not conscious. There's no Dr Frankenstein solution. You cannot imbue a thing with Being.

Weak AI will drive cars, etc, and everyone will call it AI and mistake sufficiently sophisticated programming for consciousness, but it will never reason forward or develop beyond its parameters.

Btw the AI toaster on Red Drawf was hilarious. Constantly in a state of existential crisis, the poor thing just couldn't resolve why it was here and what it all meant. Every time someone came in the room it was "Hi! You want some toast?"

Computers aren't even close to the brains computational power.

Might be close to the average getbig get though.

Rare has so much nonsense been spoken on a single thread.

Theoak*

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Say what?

Real AI is not possible to create without replicating biological reproduction and evolution.  There are two issues here:  most organisms really are Freudian in nature and are not just spontaneously thinking for no reason, but more like problem solving things that are related to the prime directives they're built with - usually things like reproduction, shelter, food, etc.  For instance, there is enough quantum noise and entropy floating around where a human could record it 24/7 and study it eternally, but they would not because there is no payoff related to their Freudian urges.

A so-called AI, on the other hand, would not have such Freudian prime directives and would get stuck in a hard loop doing things like just staring at random entropy forever.  It has no such Freudian prime directives, so it's either going to have no motivation to perform any action at all, or it's going to get hard locked attempting to endlessly analyze every meaningless detail/noise/entropy that exists.

To create AI, you would be forced to give it some type of identical Freudian prime directives just like humans, such as reproducing itself or what have you.  The 'AI' would then not get continuously hard locked doing seemingly useless things because the artificial Freudian instincts are it's debugging mechanism.  You would likely still need to use magic numbers like:  halt analyzing data after whatever numbers of seconds or power expenditure elapsed with no useful returns to operation.

Trying to create AI this way still wouldn't be real AI, you've just created some type of designer, seek and destroy, self reproducing robot that probably consumes all resources in the universe while obliterating anything that gets in it's way - a physical, macro-scale virus in other words.  It's debugging routines, or artificial Freudian instincts - whatever you want to call them - also sit above anything it does in hierarchy, making it just a complex looping script or algorithm artificially designed by you.

A real AI would be required to be able to rewrite and create all of it's own debugging and prime directives that govern how it operates on the fly in order to not be  considered a script.  When you alter the base debugging code that governs how the entire system runs, some alterations would create hard locks because this process simply cannot be done without trial and error, or harnessing the power of entropy in an infinite monkeys with typewriters phenomenon until you get something that doesn't hard lock.

Since you're 100% guaranteed to have hard locks, it's impossible to proceed past this point without the action of the AI duplicating/copying itself each time it attempts to perform said action.  The old and new copy would then exist in the same physical plain of existence and be forced to compete with one another for resources, thus you have seemingly replicated biological evolution/natural selection, just in the form of silicon.  This form of silicon evolution could pass by much faster than biological evolution, or another possibility is that while the silicon entities can theoretically rewrite their own debugging code and succeed, the chance is so small that every real world attempt fails and only the original, human created one remains which is just a complex script in practice.

Tapeworm

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Computers aren't even close to the brains computational power.

Might be close to the average getbig get though.

Rare has so much nonsense been spoken on a single thread.

Multiply a few 6 digit numbers in your head. Instantly recall massive amounts of information. Run cryptographic inquiries in the background all day.

Why, how are you defining computational power?

Army of One

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It isnt just Musk, Ray Kurzweil, who has an extremely high prediction rate predicts Artificial GENERAL Intelligence


"Artificial general intelligence (AGI) is the hypothetical[1] intelligence of a machine that has the capacity to understand or learn any intellectual task that a human being can"

Kurzweil is seen as the God of Futurism due to his ability to predict future tech.

https://sci-techmaven.io/superposition/tech/ray-kurzweil-predicts-machines-will-reach-human-like-intelligence-by-2029-rbm2y0xcT0aqwUhC7wAHiA

harmankardon1

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It isnt just Musk, Ray Kurzweil, who has an extremely high prediction rate predicts Artificial GENERAL Intelligence


"Artificial general intelligence (AGI) is the hypothetical[1] intelligence of a machine that has the capacity to understand or learn any intellectual task that a human being can"

Kurzweil is seen as the God of Futurism due to his ability to predict future tech.

https://sci-techmaven.io/superposition/tech/ray-kurzweil-predicts-machines-will-reach-human-like-intelligence-by-2029-rbm2y0xcT0aqwUhC7wAHiA

army seriously?? Don't read him bro.

Kurzweil is a total joke... He is the king of wishful thinking and delusion, claims were on the cusp of biological immortality.... believe me I'm a biomedical scientist were nowhere fucking near it.

He is not to be taken even remotely seriously.

FitnessFrenzy

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army seriously?? Don't read him bro.

Kurzweil is a total joke... He is the king of wishful thinking and delusion, claims were on the cusp of biological immortality.... believe me I'm a biomedical scientist were nowhere fucking near it.

He is not to be taken even remotely seriously.

yes he is a bit of a dreamer

IronMeister

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El Diablo Blanco

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These types of predictions have been happening for decades.  I remember in the 80's that by the year 2000 we'd be living in a Jetson's world.  Flying cars, moving sidewalks, robot everything.  Not happened yet. One of the biggest if not the biggest limitation of robots taking over is batter power.  Our battery technology is absolute SHIT.  Until someone can develop some sort of battery that can power a robot without charging, then we'll be okay.

ElPolloSalmonello

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Multiply a few 6 digit numbers in your head. Instantly recall massive amounts of information. Run cryptographic inquiries in the background all day.

Why, how are you defining computational power?

A good example. Here's a different one.
- A ball is fired in your direction from 60ft away traveling between 60-146mph. It's aimed at area in front of you that is 21ft x 13ft wide. After landing the ball will bounce.

As the ball moves towards you, you must do the following:
- Predict the location of the bounce so that you can predict when the ball will be 2-6 feet off the ground after it bounces.
- Position your body behind that location, slightly to the right (as you face it) with your outstretched arm 24 inches from the location the ball will pass.
- Swing your arm forwards so that a flat surface you are holding makes contact with the ball at a speed and angle for it to pass over a 3.5ft obstacle 15 ft away and land in an area 39ft x 40.5ft beyond the obstacle.
- Make adjustments to the angle and speed calculations according to the position of a person 60ft away that is moving as the ball moves your way.

I couldn't figure this out consciously ever. I could do it though because I can play tennis. Your brain is doing all this subconsciously when you play a game, when you drive, play an instrument - anything that's a skill...

So you can't compare to your conscious computational skills - because your subconscious is doing the work for you. That's where the power is.

There's 100 billion neurons, each can contact 100's or 1000's of others via synapsis. It is the MOST complex computer by far on earth and we have no idea how it really works....

It took 10 years to build SpiNNaker supercomputer built to simulate the way the brain works. It’s ongoing but as of 2018 it had 1,200 connected circuit boards and 1,000,000 core processors. It is able to mimic the function of a mouse brain which is 1000 times smaller than a human brain. With those million processors it is approaching 1% of the scale of a human brain.


So yeah - computers are not even close to the complexity of the brain or the computational power of it.






ElPolloSalmonello

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I cant say I disagree with him after following AI closely for 20 years.I see it certainly within 10 years.When machines have an iq measured over 1000 in humans terms, what will be the point of human work when the machine can do in a day what takes us a year?And when robots are made that have the dexterity to say plumb a house better than any human, then thats all the physical jobs gone too.I only see one way out of this, Universal basic income for all with massive taxation on the worlds richest.

IQ is a poor measure of your intellect. It is largely pattern matching - a specific set of skills.

I've met high IQ people that were absolutely bloody dolts - no social skills, not empathy, no charm. Take someone with an average IQ and give them better social skills and they'll do much better in life as they simply have different intellectual capabilities. IQ Measures one of them. Also - because of the nature of IQ tests - you could, of course, program a computer to get 100% - but you just coded it to solve patterns and a few other things.

Doesn't mean it could get it's cock sucked by some mysterious blonde it bumped into in a club and convinced to come back for a ride now, does it?

IroNat

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One thing I've observed over my lifetime is that predictions of the future are rarely correct.

The future will be different than today but unlikely to be as predicted.

IroNat

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A good example. Here's a different one.
- A ball is fired in your direction from 60ft away traveling between 60-146mph. It's aimed at area in front of you that is 21ft x 13ft wide. After landing the ball will bounce.

As the ball moves towards you, you must do the following:
- Predict the location of the bounce so that you can predict when the ball will be 2-6 feet off the ground after it bounces.
- Position your body behind that location, slightly to the right (as you face it) with your outstretched arm 24 inches from the location the ball will pass.
- Swing your arm forwards so that a flat surface you are holding makes contact with the ball at a speed and angle for it to pass over a 3.5ft obstacle 15 ft away and land in an area 39ft x 40.5ft beyond the obstacle.
- Make adjustments to the angle and speed calculations according to the position of a person 60ft away that is moving as the ball moves your way.

I couldn't figure this out consciously ever. I could do it though because I can play tennis. Your brain is doing all this subconsciously when you play a game, when you drive, play an instrument - anything that's a skill...

So you can't compare to your conscious computational skills - because your subconscious is doing the work for you. That's where the power is.

There's 100 billion neurons, each can contact 100's or 1000's of others via synapsis. It is the MOST complex computer by far on earth and we have no idea how it really works....

It took 10 years to build SpiNNaker supercomputer built to simulate the way the brain works. It’s ongoing but as of 2018 it had 1,200 connected circuit boards and 1,000,000 core processors. It is able to mimic the function of a mouse brain which is 1000 times smaller than a human brain. With those million processors it is approaching 1% of the scale of a human brain.


So yeah - computers are not even close to the complexity of the brain or the computational power of it.







Or this...



Or this...


IroNat

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Probably the most likely scenario is the amplification of human abilities by implanted computer processors, enabling use of vast amounts of information and speeding up native abilities.

Certainly, jobs will change and become obsolete.  WalMart is testing complete replacement of cashiers in stores now.

Higher minimum wage laws will have the opposite effect intended and cause the elimination of these menial jobs.  Unskilled workers will have less opportunities.

Vonnegut's book "Player Piano" was mentioned.  Published in 1952 it hits on the elimination of low skill jobs by automation and the result.

Today we are seeing also the elimination of high skill jobs by computers.

ElPolloSalmonello

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BossBoss

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There is no free Will, you are 100% predictable. You do and think what you learned.(+ you're Genetic) You have no Choice. Live is just happening. A Machine\AI dont have to be like a Human.

Does an airplane fly like a bee? No, it is much more advanced. A Bee is 100% Biological Evolution for a very long Time..AI dont have to be like a Human to be superior. (Obviously)

Thinking is just happening and you experience it. Youre Memory is you, things that happened. Ai in the Future will be advanced in almost every aspect and it will be nothing like the Human Brain. There are better ways to do things and Ai will find them.

Griffith

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AI will eventually decide there's no point to keep humans around anymore.

Will probably keep some for entertainment or put in cruel games to torture them in order to 'understand' their feelings and emotions.

Mayday

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The pace will only get quicker and quicker, you cant look at the previous 5 years and assume the same rate, its purely software, and the more it learns, the faster it can learn

The next legit AI that is near to us and will make a large impact is warehousing. Whilst they will get to full automation you also need to remember it.needs.to.roll out across sites.around the world. That takes a huge amount of time.

Eg in Australia we have automated mines. The trucks drive themselves..however that is only for a few and the rest remain human operated. The majority.won't be automated because the life of the mine doesn't justify the cost.

It is definitely decades away from making major impacts on the workforce.

Dave D

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Will AI vote for Trump or Biden?

Jizmonkey

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Will AI vote for Trump or Biden?
Trump would complain about robot voter fraud, and Biden would be replaced by AI.

Henda

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Check out this machine:



I just looked it up as never seen one over here, the lads still have to lay it in the correct pattern standing on top of the machine so all it’s doing Is eliminating the two lads need to kneel down and gradually shuffle forward whilst laying, It still can only lay as quick as a man can lay

Teutonic Knight 1

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Any ideas about AI (robots cyber sex) bonking each other .......... :D

Army of One

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The next legit AI that is near to us and will make a large impact is warehousing. Whilst they will get to full automation you also need to remember it.needs.to.roll out across sites.around the world. That takes a huge amount of time.

Eg in Australia we have automated mines. The trucks drive themselves..however that is only for a few and the rest remain human operated. The majority.won't be automated because the life of the mine doesn't justify the cost.

It is definitely decades away from making major impacts on the workforce.

Im not so sure.For an example of how things can change overnight, look at what Covid19 has done to working in offices, its made everyone realise its pointless for many jobs.When full autonomy happens for veichles the tech will very rapidly be as cheap as your smartphone, at that point cost wont be an issue.Also look at the human genome project, in 97 I think it was pretty much every scientist was predicting it would take 100 years to finish/map.Due to rapid cpu tech advances in the following 6 years by 2003 it was completed.

SOMEPARTS

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I just looked it up as never seen one over here, the lads still have to lay it in the correct pattern standing on top of the machine so all it’s doing Is eliminating the two lads need to kneel down and gradually shuffle forward whilst laying, It still can only lay as quick as a man can lay


Correct, it's just a tool. Some people have a problem understanding that a machine is not AI.  ::)

Get out of the conversation if you think a blender is AI.

FFS!

Teutonic Knight 1

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Im not so sure.For an example of how things can change overnight, look at what Covid19 has done to working in offices, its made everyone realise its pointless for many jobs.When full autonomy happens for veichles the tech will very rapidly be as cheap as your smartphone, at that point cost wont be an issue.Also look at the human genome project, in 97 I think it was pretty much every scientist was predicting it would take 100 years to finish/map.Due to rapid cpu tech advances in the following 6 years by 2003 it was completed.

Very "nice & friendly'' aliens in 'French TV series 'War of the Worlds' , + Canal production 2019  :D


Griffith

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When life-like android or synthetic sexbots or lifeforms will be created coupled with advanced and adaptive learning AI, this will change everything.