Good point and lots of people say that the race really doesn't start until after labor day .
The problem with Hillary was 2 fold:
1. The right had 30+ years to paint a negative narrative about Hillary.
Team Trump was able to exploit that , which is fair game in big league politics.
2. Hillary was smart and experienced, but wasn't that likeable. Plus, the avg person didn't relate to Hillary or trust her.
Biden is a totally different candidate for Trump to run against.
The Biden brand is a likeable, decent, empathetic man with a wealth of life and political experience.
Granted , team Trump called Biden "sleepy Joe" but for everyone else he's more like " Uncle Joe".
Plus , people remember how bad a financial hole we were in when Obama/ Biden took over in 2008.
The DOW went up over 270% in their 8 years in power plus a record number of jobs and the saving the US auto industry.
In fairness, Trump's economic numbers were good until Covid hit.
Trump didn't invent Covid, but the horrid infection and death numbers with economic collapse are on his watch.
It's like a head coach of any team. I think this makes a clear, simple analogy:
Trump had 3 winning years as head coach of team America.
Then a rash of injuries* came (*Covid) and team America had a losing season.
The front office hears fans screaming to fire coach Trump.
Next thing you know team America is on ESPN putting the team jacket
on newly hired coach Biden.
Coach Biden had a winning record from his previous team and everyone looks forward to the new season.
Fair or not, right now Trump is riding out a losing season and the fans want a change.