Election Prediction Thread - Biden vs. Trump - Who will win?

[Rascal full]

Trump will win big on election night but then millions of mail in ballots will flood in all for Biden.  When most of those ballots are thrown out for being either too late or non verifiable addresses the left will use that to claim Trump is illegitimate and should be impeached.  More rioting and looting until the military is called in and then the media and left (same thing) will claim Trump is a dictator.

I think this looks like a great prediction. When Trump wins the backlash from insane libs will be hilarious but also deranged and dangerous. They will use the mail in ballots for Biden as you said and use that to beat Trump for the next four years.

Empty vessels make the most noise and that is what it is with the biased MSM and nutty dems always sounding off but, thankfully, they are not in big numbers and I expect Trump to win resoundingly in reality.

[Thin Lizzy]

True. On the other hand, everyone knows the pollsters blew it in the 2016 presidential election. They concede as much and have even claimed to have changed their methodology. However, does that mean there is a provable conspiracy afoot as the author claims?

The burden of proof that they fixed their flaws and their methodology is on them. Considering that there’s been a monkey wrench thrown into the election as a result of Covid, I find their claim highly doubtful.

Moreover, they could be wrong for an entirely different reason. I believe that mail in voting will be a colossal failure for the Democrats as it’s somewhat of a literacy test and it requires some work.

As far as conspiracies, is it a conspiracy that the liberal networks are biased towards Democrats? These are the same networks and media outlets that sponsor many of these polls.

Was it an accident that they were THIS wrong?

[Mayday]

Trump will win big on election night but then millions of mail in ballots will flood in all for Biden.  When most of those ballots are thrown out for being either too late or non verifiable addresses the left will use that to claim Trump is illegitimate and should be impeached.  More rioting and looting until the military is called in and then the media and left (same thing) will claim Trump is a dictator.

I read what you wrote and i believe sadly you are probably correct.

If you guys were outside of the US you would realise just how insane your country looks to outsiders right now. A country cannot function properly with main 2 political parties so far apart. It only leads to fighting and sabotage. Look at the Middle East. Look at some of the asian countries who experienced unrest. All fought over large political differences.

You really need both parties replaced with a left and right side more centrered and closer together to stop all the BS.

But i guess the rest of the world will soon find out who Americans really are.......

[Rascal full]

I read what you wrote and i believe sadly you are probably correct.

If you guys were outside of the US you would realise just how insane your country looks to outsiders right now. A country cannot function properly with main 2 political parties so far apart. It only leads to fighting and sabotage. Look at the Middle East. Look at some of the asian countries who experienced unrest. All fought over large political differences.

You really need both parties replaced with a left and right side more centrered and closer together to stop all the BS.

But i guess the rest of the world will soon find out who Americans really are.......

Yeah man, I am in England and always been very interested in all things America and love the country very much. I really hope Trump wins and some how the nutty dems become extinct! They are doing so much damage, both physical and mental, emotional, etc. Their warped ideology needs to be stamped out and not just in America, we got that shit running amok here and all over Europe.

[mphgrove]

I know it’s a political topic but it’s mainstream enough to belong on the main page. While there’s always the possibility of something unforeseen happening, I’m ready to go with this map as my prediction.

But what about the polls? I’ll address that in another post.

Anybody else?

Here’s the ones in your map that are totally unrealistic for Trump, but subtracting them out still has him winning if he gets all the others you predict (several of which are iffy like Wisconsin)
Minnesota
Nevada
Maine
New Hampshire
Michigan (conceivable Trump could get it like last time but highly unlikely)

[tom joad]

a Democratic sweep.

[Grape Ape]

I can't figure it out.

Could see the Trump hatred being overwhelming, especially from the youth, and Biden winning.

Could see the silent majority being enormous, as many are disillusioned by the increased violence and lawlessness, and Trump winning.

No idea really.

[Rascal full]

I can't figure it out.

Could see the Trump hatred being overwhelming, especially from the youth, and Biden winning.

Could see the silent majority being enormous, as many are disillusioned by the increased violence and lawlessness, and Trump winning.

No idea really.

Oh shit, this raises a great point about the youth. Idealistic or just not mature enough to see sense I don't know, but this is a massive factor. I just hope in the future they don't lower the voting age like they want to do in UK.

[Thin Lizzy]

I can't figure it out.

Could see the Trump hatred being overwhelming, especially from the youth, and Biden winning.

Could see the silent majority being enormous, as many are disillusioned by the increased violence and lawlessness, and Trump winning.

No idea really.

Typically, the hatred angle doesn’t win elections. More people go to the polls for a candidate they support than to vote against one they hate.

I believe that the number of people with an advanced stage of TDS is overestimated because most of those people are on the Internet all day stewing about Trump. Makes it seem as though there’s more.

[Thin Lizzy]

Oh shit, this raises a great point about the youth. Idealistic or just not mature enough to see sense I don't know, but this is a massive factor. I just hope in the future they don't lower the voting age like they want to do in UK.

The youth vote figures to be down for two reasons. Colleges aren’t operating at a normal schedule so you don’t have the typical get out the vote campaigns there. Also, Biden is a decrepit  old man who’s not gonna inspire young people to vote as did Obama.

[Walter Sobchak]

Drive through middle America.

The Trump campaign signs in people’s front yards outnumber the Biden signs 10:1 from the California border to the east coast.

These are the people the leftist media never make any effort to poll.

[Rascal full]

The youth vote figures to be down for two reasons. Colleges aren’t operating at a normal schedule so you don’t have the typical get out the vote campaigns there. Also, Biden is a decrepit  old man who’s not gonna inspire young people to vote as did Obama.

Biden is boring and has no charisma but it is the youth and their mindless hatred for Trump that I am worried about. They virtue-signal their way into a constant state of indignation over everything he does, to show how caring and big hearted they are! The youth have been whipped up into a frenzy against Trump and this is their chance to get rid of him so it is a worrying element of this whole thing.

Drive through middle America.

The Trump campaign signs in people’s front yards outnumber the Biden signs 10:1 from the California border to the east coast.

These are the people the leftist media never make any effort to poll.

Yeah, this is the actual reality not the nonsense the MSM cooks up, thank God!

[tom joad]

Typically, the hatred angle doesn’t win elections. More people go to the polls for a candidate they support than to vote against one they hate.

I believe that the number of people with an advanced stage of TDS is overestimated because most of those people are on the Internet all day stewing about Trump. Makes it seem as though there’s more.

It's a referendum on Trump.  (especially since the Dems put forth Biden and not Bernie.)

[ThisisOverload]

It will be like last time. Trump is a President very few like to admit they like in public, but will vote for in private.

That's what i see more and more these days.  Here in New Mexico, you do see some Trump signs in the country areas, but in the Cities the polls are very blue.

A lot of people i know are very quiet about Trump, but will be voting for him.

I don't really care for him at all, but he's the lesser of two evils.

[tom joad]

afraid of the youth vote?  if Biden wins, it'll be largely because he does very well with seniors (compared to past Dem Prez nominees in the last 20 years.)

[Teutonic Knight 1]

United States of America, November 4, 2o2o :

- Straw Girl :     

- PEDO DEFENDER : 
 
- Hocoward : 

- funk51 : 

- dearth : in memoriam ( + Nov., 3rd 2020)

- ilallin : drunk ........................ .............

[Moontrane]

Oh shit, this raises a great point about the youth. Idealistic or just not mature enough to see sense I don't know, but this is a massive factor. I just hope in the future they don't lower the voting age like they want to do in UK.

18 states allow 17-year-olds to vote, if they're 18 by the next election.  CA is probably next to allow this.

[honest]

Im not a fan of Trump he's an ego maniac, but I am a fan of small government democracy and capitalism, more of traditional republican voter but I could never vote for a democrat or their socialist agenda. I don't want a hand out in life only the ability to financially take care of myself, I'm  ok helping others but i don't want the others who my taxes help to hate me and want me to pay even more.
In saying that I think Biden will win unless Trump can pull a miracle and if anyone can he can. Traditional Capitalism is at stake, people need to wake up, socialism will not create equality just a lower quality of life overall and less opportunity. Vote team Red.

[Thin Lizzy]

Here’s the ones in your map that are totally unrealistic for Trump, but subtracting them out still has him winning if he gets all the others you predict (several of which are iffy like Wisconsin)
Minnesota
Nevada
Maine
New Hampshire
Michigan (conceivable Trump could get it like last time but highly unlikely)

There are certainly  going to be some close ones but I believe the enthusiasm factor is so heavily in favor of Trump that it gives him 2-3% in every state. NOBODY GIVES A FUCK ABOUT BIDEN. Have you watched any of his “events”? There are always more Trump supporters there.


We’ll find out in three weeks. If I’m wrong I’ll man up and admit it. I’m not gonna run away like some people did here after Hillary went down in flames.

[Palumboism]

Drive through middle America.

The Trump campaign signs in people’s front yards outnumber the Biden signs 10:1 from the California border to the east coast.

These are the people the leftist media never make any effort to poll.

Democrats only seem to be concerned about the coasts and the big cities.  Disregarding the whole center of the country and then they complain about the electoral college.

[tom joad]

State of the race 3 weeks out:

Trump has a rally in Georgia on Friday.

[Primemuscle]

.

[Rascal full]

.

That would be absolutely horrific! How can a sane human actually want this?

[harmankardon1]

Is this for presidential elections only? Or every race that they poll? Is there any data to verify this in prior elections? Is this how Obama-McCain and Obama-Romney went down? I don’t recall. Forgive my skepticism but the author’s reference to the “demokkkrat” party makes me question his or her credibility somewhat.

It's true... On the inside they call it dissuasion polling.... The recent CNN "poll" that had Biden up 14 points is exactly that... It made to make republicans think oh well it's over I won't vote.

Only problem is it doesn't work less now than ever because everybody knows they're full of shit.

[mphgrove]

Even though the map above is overly optimistic for Biden, the good news for him there is you can take away Iowa, Ohio, North Carolina, and Florida (all of them very Trump friendly), and Biden still wins the electoral vote.