Election Prediction Thread - Biden vs. Trump - Who will win?

[mphgrove]

Georgia now is looking like 50/50 too.  But, yeah, winning it would be just gravy for Biden.

Dream on about Biden winning Georgia. However, if Collins beats out Loeffler in the first phase of the special election, it is conceivable that Warnock could knock off that Fox News suck-up in January. He has a certain Roy Moore quality about him.

[Palumboism]

You're kidding right?  Have you looked at Trump's history even before the presidency?  He's never given a single fuck about blue collar or anyone else.

What has he done with H-1B Visas?  What has he done with China?

He won Michigan in 2016 and is likely to win it again in 2020.  The union employees I know are all voting Trump.

[tom joad]

Dream on about Biden winning Georgia. However, if Collins beats out Loeffler in the first phase of the special election, it is conceivable that Warnock could knock off that Fox News suck-up in January. He has a certain Roy Moore quality about him.

well (as you know) Stacey Abrams lost by just 1.4 points and i'll take the Trump campaign's decision to hold a rally in Georgia today as a recognition that the state potentially could be lost.

[mphgrove]

well (as you know) Stacey Abrams lost by just 1.4 points and i'll take the Trump campaign's decision to hold a rally in Georgia today as a recognition that the state potentially could be lost.

Well, it has been a while since I lived in Georgia. If Trump were to lose there, it means a landslide or close to. But I predict close but no cigar.

[Thin Lizzy]

Pollsters starting to cover their asses. Biden was never up big:



2020 Election Poll: Donald Trump Narrows Gap As Joe Biden Support Falls Below Key Level, IBD/TIPP Data Show

https://www.investors.com/politics/2020-election-poll-donald-trump-vs-biden-poll-tightens-ibd-tipp/

[Thin Lizzy]

well (as you know) Stacey Abrams lost by just 1.4 points and i'll take the Trump campaign's decision to hold a rally in Georgia today as a recognition that the state potentially could be lost.

He’s in Florida today as well. Why not make a stop in GA on the way back to DC and motivate the base?

[Primemuscle]

If Biden were really up by double digits why would he go to a state like Michigan which should be locked up and never visit Texas which has many more electoral votes and is supposedly within reach?


Biden to campaign in Detroit, Southfield today

https://www.clickondetroit.com/decision-2020/2020/10/15/biden-to-campaign-in-detroit-southfield-friday/

I think this is because he believes it would be a waste of time to campaign in Texas. It is one thing to be in a close race and hope to win over some undecided votes. But if you are down a lot somewhere, like Texas, it doesn't make sense. By going to Michigan where is is already ahead, he is securing his vote. It would make sense for him to go to Florida and Ohio where the race is nearly tied. 

RCP Average            9/15 - 10/6   --   --           49.2   44.8   Trump +4.4
Rasmussen Reports   10/5 - 10/6   1000 LV   3.0   51   44   Trump +7
UT/Texas    Tribune*   9/25 - 10/4   908 LV   4.1   50   45   Trump +5
UMass         Lowell      9/18 - 9/25   882 LV   4.3   50   46   Trump +4
Quinnipiac                 9/17 - 9/21   1078 LV   3.0   50   45   Trump +5
NY Times/Siena*         9/16 - 9/21   653 LV   4.3   46   43   Trump +3
CBS News/YouGov     9/15 - 9/18   1205 LV   3.5   48   46   Trump +2

Presidential Voting History
1972 R
1976 D
1980 R
1984 R
1988 R
1992 R
1996 R
2000 R
2004 R
2008 R
2012 R
2016 R

These are the toss up states and the electoral votes they offer. Any of these where the race is close and that bring a lot of electoral votes are good choices to campaign in to either try and win over the vote or maintain one's lead. This will get him to the required 270 electoral college votes and possibly with a good lead. Biden currently has 216 electoral votes and Trump has 125, leaving 197 toss up votes, more of which lean towards Biden than Trump.

Pennsylvania (20) Georgia (16)  Florida (29) Iowa (6)  Wisconsin (10) Nevada (6)  North Carolina (15) Maine CD2 (1) Arizona (11) Minnesota (10) Ohio (18) Nebraska CD2 (1)

If you eliminate the toss ups by moving them to which ever side the candidate is ahead on, Biden would have 375 electoral votes to Trump's 163

If this is how the election turns out, Trump has no argument as to whether the vote was miscounted or there was election fraud.

With only 18 days to go until the election it might seem like a done deal. But, it is a good idea to never count your chickens before they are hatched.

[Thin Lizzy]

So, are you going with that prediction prime? Biden 375?

You believe that Biden is going to out perform Hillary by 143?

[mphgrove]

Another perspective here. I believe Biden is likely to win but 375 electoral votes is not achievable. Even Michigan and Pennsylvania remain question marks. Biden appears to have the edge there, in large part because of movement of Seniors and suburbanites toward Biden BUT:
Enthusiasm factor is super high among Trump supporters. They will turn out!
New voters signing up are tilted toward Republican registrations over Democrats.

Biden needs to LIVE in those two states (and Florida where the senior shift toward him is significant also).

[TheGrinch]

PEDO for POTUS 2020!!

Biden wins both the electoral college and popular vote by a much larger margin than Hildog

[Methyl m1ke]

Cnn focused on non mask wearing at Trump rallies and the threat of potentially deadly coronavirus.transmission . makes me literally want to punch my tv. The left is gambling the roof over their head and they know it. If Trump wins I hope one of the first things he does is dismantle the main stream media and unpoliticize it. Its disgusting.

[Eldon]

[AbrahamG]

So, are you going with that prediction prime? Biden 375?

You believe that Biden is going to out perform Hillary by 143?

I believe he'll outperform Hillary but not by 143.  I think Joe Biden will be the next POTUS.

[tom joad]

Last Ten Presidential Elections - Electoral Vote & Popular Vote

2016:  Trump  304  46.1%  (Hillary 48.2%)

2012:  Obama  332  51.1%

2008:  Obama  365  52.9%

2004:  Bush  286  50.7%

2000:  Bush  271  47.9%  (Gore 48.4%)

1996:  Clinton  379  49.2%  (Dole 40.7%, Perot 8.4%)

1992:  Clinton  370  43%  (Bush 37.4%, Perot 18.9%)

1988:  Bush  426  53.4%

1984:  Reagan  526  58.8%

1980:  Reagan  489  50.7%

[Primemuscle]

So, are you going with that prediction prime? Biden 375?

You believe that Biden is going to out perform Hillary by 143?

As I posted, a lot can happen between now and November 3rd. Right now Biden is ahead by 9.0 overall, 7.2 in Michigan and 5.6 in Pennsylvania. That's 36 electoral votes from just these two states. Winning them puts him just 18 votes away from the required 270. Currently, there are 538 electors, based on 435 representatives, 100 senators from the fifty states and three electors from Washington, D.C.

Biden needs to win with a big enough lead to avoid endless challenges to the vote count as there most surely would be if he only got 270 electoral votes and Trump got 268.

It is not really important what I believe or what anyone else believes because predictions/beliefs are often inaccurate. Never the less, there will be a lot of poll watching and people making predictions from now until election day.

[Thin Lizzy]

As I posted, a lot can happen between now and November 3rd. Right now Biden is ahead by 9.0 overall, 7.2 in Michigan and 5.6 in Pennsylvania. That's 36 electoral votes from just these two states. Winning them puts him just 18 votes away from the required 270. Currently, there are 538 electors, based on 435 representatives, 100 senators from the fifty states and three electors from Washington, D.C.

Biden needs to win with a big enough lead to avoid endless challenges to the vote count as there most surely would be if he only got 270 electoral votes and Trump got 268.

It is not really important what I believe or what anyone else believes because predictions/beliefs are often inaccurate. Never the less, there will be a lot of poll watching and people making predictions from now until election day.

Easy to see why so many people got 2016 wrong and will do so again this year. They believe these polls as gospel.

[Humble Narcissist]

Easy to see why so many people got 2016 wrong and will do so again this year. They believe these polls as gospel.

A lot of people make their livings off of them.

[Primemuscle]

Another perspective here. I believe Biden is likely to win but 375 electoral votes is not achievable. Even Michigan and Pennsylvania remain question marks. Biden appears to have the edge there, in large part because of movement of Seniors and suburbanites toward Biden BUT:
Enthusiasm factor is super high among Trump supporters. They will turn out!
New voters signing up are tilted toward Republican registrations over Democrats.

Biden needs to LIVE in those two states (and Florida where the senior shift toward him is significant also).

It's too late in many states to register to vote. Only 21 States have same day registrations most require you register 30 days prior to the election. The last day to register to vote in Florida has passed. Pennsylvania last day is 10 days before the election. Michigan voters can register on the same day they vote (November 3). As of October 10, 2020 there were more people registered as Democrats than Republicans in the battleground states of Florida, North Carolina and Pennsylvania, but Republicans have been gaining ground. Both the Trump and Biden campaigns are actively working to boost their party registration numbers.

[Primemuscle]

Three weeks from election day, Donald Trump was and is still trailing in the polls and some Democrats are plotting for the next four years under a Democratic president. That was the scene in 2016 and it’s shaping up to be the same in 2020, as Joe Biden’s solid, sustained lead in United States polls has increased in the last week.

The world has changed enormously in four years, as has the political situation in which Trump finds himself. Instead of railing against the establishment as an agent of change, Trump is now in charge and is being blamed for mishandling a once-in-a-century pandemic that has rocked the country and has directly affected him, hospitalizing him and sidelining him from a week-and-a-half of crucial campaign travel.

That makes the ‘Look what Trump did in 2016’ a poor argument for why he may or may not still have a chance this year.

While Hillary Clinton regularly led Trump throughout the general election in 2016, Joe Biden is currently holding a historic lead in national polls, finding himself in the best position for a challenger to an incumbent since 1936.

Even in battleground states, Biden is leading or statistically tied in all of the ones Trump flipped in 2016, including Michigan, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Wisconsin.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/10/13/analysis-2020-is-not-2016-but-dont-count-trump-out-yet

[mphgrove]

It's too late in many states to register to vote. Only 21 States have same day registrations most require you register 30 days prior to the election. The last day to register to vote in Florida has passed. Pennsylvania last day is 10 days before the election. Michigan voters can register on the same day they vote (November 3). As of October 10, 2020 there were more people registered as Democrats than Republicans in the battleground states of Florida, North Carolina and Pennsylvania, but Republicans have been gaining ground. Both the Trump and Biden campaigns are actively working to boost their party registration numbers.

Current registration levels are meaningless. In Chicago, there were huge howls of discontent when voters in certain more conservative neighborhoods went to their polling places during the Primary to vote for Trump and were told they could not vote for him because they were registered as Democrats. NEW registrations are much more informative. If someone registers as a Democrat right now, he or she is going to vote for Biden. Same on the Republican side for Trump. And you point out people in both Michigan and Pennsylvania can still register for a while longer. That is why, as I Biden supporter, I would tell him to set up residence in those states. In that particular respect, he is being outmaneuvered by the Republicans.

[Thin Lizzy]

A lot of people make their livings off of them.

If the public polls are so accurate, why do the candidates themselves use internal polls?

[tom joad]

Easy to see why so many people got 2016 wrong and will do so again this year. They believe these polls as gospel.

Nate Silver gave Trump a 28.6% chance of winning in 2016.  And Trump pulled it off by picking up 46 decisive electoral votes by winning MI, WI & PA by just half a percentage point combined (less than 78,000 votes combined.)

[SOMEPARTS]

Nate Silver gave Trump a 28.6% chance of winning in 2016.  And Trump pulled it off by picking up 46 decisive electoral votes by winning MI, WI & PA by just half a percentage point combined (less than 78,000 votes combined.)

When? The day after the election? 

[Humble Narcissist]

If the public polls are so accurate, why do the candidates themselves use internal polls?

I'm not saying the pollsters are accurate, I'm saying lots of people make their living off of them.

[Andy Griffin]

I believe he'll outperform Hillary but not by 143.  I think Joe Biden will be the next POTUS.

He will lose worse than Cankles lost.