Election Prediction Thread - Biden vs. Trump - Who will win?

[Primemuscle]

Ponder the point you are making and then read the last line.

If women turned up en masse to vofe for Hillary as the first female.president and she lost, you shouldn't then conclude the following candidate, who is a male, will win because even more will turn up as they are upset they lost the previous election.

The unique circumstance is the key driver for additional participation.
 For Obama it was the first black president, he had record black voters who following his term mostly vanished and 4.4M didn't vote (which is racist as they only turned up because the candidate was black).

For Hillary it was becomming the first female president. Women rocked up to make it happen but it wasn't enough despite the millions she poured into marketing. She lost.

Biden isn't a first of anything. First president with dementia? I don't think anybody would turnup to make that happen.

Candidate Favorable Ratings Up Over 2016, but Still Low

 Former Vice President Joe Biden leads President Donald Trump 54% to 47% in Gallup's historical "scalometer" measure of candidate favorability. Trump's 2020 rating on the zero to 10 scale is better than the all-time low 36% he received in 2016, and Biden's rating exceeds Hillary Clinton's 47% that year. Gallop

[epic is back]

um yeah, about those polls...

[Thin Lizzy]

Yeah it's weird, but a lot of women really hate Trump.

Even my mother who has been a Dem for decades thinks Kamala is the icing on the cake for Biden.  Her and her liberal friends (my mother was a teacher so yeah) are all voting for Biden no matter what, they are hardcore Dems that would vote for Hitler over any Rep.  I've asked some of them who are pretty conservative why they are voting Biden, most of them say because they hate Trump and think he's sexist/racist or because they want to see a female in the White House.  My mother is also a HUGE fan of Hillary, just because she wants to see women in power.  It's retarded at a base level.

Historically, this doesn’t win elections. People are more likely to go the extra yard, to the polls, or to vote by mail for a candidate they support rather than to vote against one they hate.

[Thin Lizzy]

um yeah, about those polls...

https://www.kltv.com/2020/08/21/prolific-predictor-elections-says-trump-wins-landslide/


(KLTV) - The chances that President Donald Trump wins re-election in 2020 is near certain, according to a political science professor whose election model has a history of correctly predicting election results.
Stony Brook University professor Helmut Norpoth’s Primary Model shows President Trump has a 91-percent chance of winning re-election, according to his interview with Stony Brook News.
Norpoth’s model relies on the results of presidential primaries, not polls that are often used as indicators of popularity. According to Norpoth, Biden is in a much weaker position than Trump because of his poor showing in the first two primary races.

[epic is back]

again the polls.. mmmm not so much

you forgot 2016?

[Thin Lizzy]

again the polls.. mmmm not so much

you forgot 2016?

Here’s one from 2016:

[mphgrove]

Policies and politics (and polls) aside, it boils down to the kindly old uncle versus the mean old uncle at the holiday dinner table. Which one is angry but exhausted America in the mood for? The women will go kindly and the men probably mean. It will be close.

[Body-Buildah]

More important than this garbage, who takes WSM 2020??

https://barbend.com/2020-worlds-strongest-man-final-roster/

[Thin Lizzy]

Policies and politics (and polls) aside, it boils down to the kindly old uncle versus the mean old uncle at the holiday dinner table. Which one is angry but exhausted America in the mood for? The women will go kindly and the men probably mean. It will be close.

I don’t know which Biden you’re watching but rather than a kindly old uncle I see an angry old man who gets pissed off when anybody asks him a remotely tough question.

[TheGrinch]

Biden gets at least 300 electoral votes easy


Biden 379

Trump 159


PEDO for POTUS 2020!!

[Thin Lizzy]

Biden gets at least 300 electoral votes easy


Biden 379

Trump 159


PEDO for POTUS 2020!!

Bold prediction💪

So, you think Biden will win Florida and the entire rust belt?

[TheGrinch]

Bold prediction💪

So, you think Biden will win Florida and the entire rust belt?

Based on the feedback I'm getting from pissed off family member Trump supporters who live in Florida and see way too many Biden signs and more and more of them each day in FL counties that typical vote red.............100% yep.


If that can happen in red FL counties then the rust belt is easy



As much as I want Trump to win.......not likely based on what I am seeing/hearing even in places like Idaho, Montana, Florida...


Way too many Dems relocating or that have relocated to Red states in the last 4 years voting for Biden imo

[dearth]

When you realize that the orange turd will lose


why does the 73 year old man baby paint his face with orange paint?

[Dave D]

Policies and politics (and polls) aside, it boils down to the kindly old uncle versus the mean old uncle at the holiday dinner table. Which one is angry but exhausted America in the mood for? The women will go kindly and the men probably mean. It will be close.

You mean like every other presidential election in recent memory?

Every election is close, has there ever been a candidate that won by 70% of the popular vote? Bush sr? Clinton? lol at it will be close....

[The Scott]

I don’t know which Biden you’re watching but rather than a kindly old uncle I see an angry old man who gets pissed off when anybody asks him a remotely tough question.

Agreed.   Biden is like Buck Henry's character on the original SNL where he babysits Gilda Radner and Loraine Newman and has them sit on a glass table and play "glASS Bottom Boat" and he's the fish under the boat.  He's the kind of "uncle" that takes a kid to the movies and has him "reach deep" into the popcorn box on his lap because "that's where the fresh melted butter is".

democraps are fetid beings, unworthy of living in civilized lands.  They are the weakest among us and if Covid were that deadly it would've been a blessing from above as it would have wiped them off the face of our Nation and the world.

[Dave D]

Based on the feedback I'm getting from pissed off family member Trump supporters who live in Florida and see way too many Biden signs and more and more of them each day in FL counties that typical vote red.............100% yep.


If that can happen in red FL counties then the rust belt is easy



As much as I want Trump to win.......not likely based on what I am seeing/hearing even in places like Idaho, Montana, Florida...


Way too many Dems relocating or that have relocated to Red states in the last 4 years voting for Biden imo

What percentage of the country is democrat? And what percentage of those have moved to “republican” areas? With the dems moving is there data tracking what political party moved into their former neighborhood? Obviously if dems are moving into republican strongholds someone had to leave, so where did the republicans go?

Where are you getting this data?

[tom joad]

You mean like every other presidential election in recent memory?

Every election is close, has there ever been a candidate that won by 70% of the popular vote? Bush sr? Clinton? lol at it will be close....

Winning the popular vote by simply a double-digit margin would be a landslide ...(which, yeah, hasn't happened since Reagan.)

[mphgrove]

What percentage of the country is democrat? And what percentage of those have moved to “republican” areas? With the dems moving is there data tracking what political party moved into their former neighborhood? Obviously if dems are moving into republican strongholds someone had to leave, so where did the republicans go?

Where are you getting this data?

Ohio and Florida will tell the story. I cannot see Trump losing Ohio, but in the old days the early margin in Ohio would have told the story. If Trump is only winning Ohio by a small margin, then Biden would be President. The difference these days is that Democrats are voting early and Republicans are more voting on Election Day, so “early margin” may no longer be a reliable indicator.

As a Biden supporter, I am happy that Biden signs are popping up right and left in Florida (which is 50/50, normally I would say for Trump). That means the silent majority of people in the middle are feeling more comfortable coming out of the closet. Guarantee that seniors (a huge segment in Florida) will go for Biden, mainly because of health care issues.

[Dave D]

Winning the popular vote by just a double-digit margin would be a landslide ...(which, yeah, hasn't happened since Reagan.)

Exactly. After all the mail in votes Hillary allegedly  won the popular vote by the largest total number of votes ever, I think 3 million total. But in context of the total population or at least registered voters, it’s not much.

Every election is close. This one obviously will be no different as half the country has lost its mind.

[Dave D]

Ohio and Florida will tell the story. I cannot see Trump losing Ohio, but in the old days the early margin in Ohio would have told the story. If Trump is only winning Ohio by a small margin, then Biden would be President. The difference these days is that Democrats are voting early and Republicans are more voting on Election Day, so “early margin” may no longer be a reliable indicator.

As a Biden supporter, I am happy that Biden signs are popping up right and left in Florida (which is 50/50, normally I would say for Trump). That means the silent majority of people in the middle are feeling more comfortable coming out of the closet. Guarantee that seniors (a huge segment in Florida) will go for Biden, mainly because of health care issues.

I’m not arguing Biden can win, obviously he can as well as Trump. I ask where you are getting the data on Democrat’s moving into Republican areas. By what percentages are they moving? And where are the Republicans going? Are they becoming dems?

Also if Trump wins Ohio by a small margin  he still wins all the electoral votes, so has does that help Biden? Trump lost the popular election last time.

[Thin Lizzy]

What percentage of the country is democrat? And what percentage of those have moved to “republican” areas? With the dems moving is there data tracking what political party moved into their former neighborhood? Obviously if dems are moving into republican strongholds someone had to leave, so where did the republicans go?

Where are you getting this data?

More Than 30,000 Cars Latinos For Trump Caravan


https://lerant.proboards.com/thread/25755/more-cars-latinos-trump-caravan

[tom joad]

Ohio and Florida will tell the story. I cannot see Trump losing Ohio, but in the old days the early margin in Ohio would have told the story. If Trump is only winning Ohio by a small margin, then Biden would be President. The difference these days is that Democrats are voting early and Republicans are more voting on Election Day, so “early margin” may no longer be a reliable indicator.

As a Biden supporter, I am happy that Biden signs are popping up right and left in Florida (which is 50/50, normally I would say for Trump). That means the silent majority of people in the middle are feeling more comfortable coming out of the closet. Guarantee that seniors (a huge segment in Florida) will go for Biden, mainly because of health care issues.

Yes, Ohio & Florida are "must wins" for Trump. But Biden doesn't need them for a viable path.  Of course, if Biden wins either, then it'll be "Goodnight Irene" for Trump quickly.  Biden just has to win PA, MI & WI (which Trump won last time by only half a percentage point combined) ... and that's not even considering the 28 electoral votes that Biden has a pretty good shot at in NC + AZ + NE2 + ME2.

[mphgrove]

I’m not arguing Biden can win, obviously he can as well as Trump. I ask where you are getting the data on Democrat’s moving into Republican areas. By what percentages are they moving? And where are the Republicans going? Are they becoming dems?

Also if Trump wins Ohio by a small margin  he still wins all the electoral votes, so has does that help Biden? Trump lost the popular election last time.

Two answers on states (and people) going from Republican to Democrat:
1. People tend to be leaving California, Illinois, New York for Arizona, Texas, North Carolina. Trump would argue because of failed policies in those Democrat states, and, even some Democrats like myself would say he has a point. Those individuals bring their politics along with their clothes and furniture.
2. Suburbanites, especially women and especially people who are more affluent, are morphing from Republicans into Democrats in suburbs throughout the nation. Lots of reasons for that.

Conversely, there are no segments that are going hugely from Democrat to Republican, although some entrepreneurial Latino and Black men maybe are going in that direction.

On Ohio, if Trump barely squeaks through, it means he will lose big in some other states. Ohio should be a cakewalk for him.

[Dave D]

Two answers on states (and people) going from Republican to Democrat:
1. People tend to be leaving California, Illinois, New York for Arizona, Texas, North Carolina. Trump would argue because of failed policies in those Democrat states, and, even some Democrats like myself would say he has a point. Those individuals bring their politics along with their clothes and furniture.
2. Suburbanites, especially women and especially people who are more affluent, are morphing from Republicans into Democrats in suburbs throughout the nation. Lots of reasons for that.

Conversely, there are no segments that are going hugely from Democrat to Republican, although some entrepreneurial Latino and Black men maybe are going in that direction.

Thank you.

This makes sense although for all the citizens fleeing California we still have a record population. So either they are not moving in large numbers or people are still moving here in record numbers.

That said I know many who have moved to Texas, Florida and Nevada for tax purposes.

[TheGrinch]

What percentage of the country is democrat? And what percentage of those have moved to “republican” areas? With the dems moving is there data tracking what political party moved into their former neighborhood? Obviously if dems are moving into republican strongholds someone had to leave, so where did the republicans go?

Where are you getting this data?

anecdotal.. just my .02 but based on the way too many to count friends who are real estate agents all over the country in former red strongholds they are getting flooded with blue state "refugees" who have biden bumperstickers and yard signs in their newly bought former "red" home.

The republican people who are selling aren't leaving the state, they are just "taking the money" from sky high sale prices, and running further and further in the middle of the "woods" and away from the cities no matter if that "city" is 100k people or 10k people.. they keep running and running in the same state away from populated areas and downsizing with cash in the bank