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Author Topic: Election Prediction Thread - Biden vs. Trump - Who will win?  (Read 34454 times)

loco

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Re: Election Prediction Thread
« Reply #250 on: October 28, 2020, 06:56:54 AM »
Quote from: Agnostic007 on October 27, 2020, 08:27:51 PM
I really don't know who will win. If we learned anything in 2016 its that the polls can't be trusted. They allegedly tweaked the polls to address the problem from last time, but even so, I think it can go either way. If I were to bet, I would bet cautiously on Biden to win based on the current data. It's really all I have to go by and so that and a little wishful thinking has me predicting a Biden win

Link?
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Never1AShow

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Re: Election Prediction Thread
« Reply #251 on: October 28, 2020, 07:08:17 AM »
Quote from: loco on October 28, 2020, 06:56:54 AM
Link?

I'd settle for a link to something showing they tweaked the polls to fix being wrong.
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tom joad

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Re: Election Prediction Thread
« Reply #252 on: October 28, 2020, 07:42:18 AM »
The final national polls for the 2016 race weren't outrageously off.  (Of course, it's only the battleground states that matter though.)

ABC/WAPO:  Hillary +4
Google:  Hillary +2
Ipsos:  Hillary +3
YouGov:  Hillary +4
Gravis:  Hillary +4
Fox:  Hillary +4
CBS/NYT:  Hillary +4
NBC/WSJ:  Hillary +4
IBD/TIPP:  Trump +2
Seizer:  Hillary +3

And Hillary won the popular vote by 2.1%.  Late deciders (who viewed both Hillary & Donald negatively) broke for Trump or stayed home.

More than half of the 2016 vote is already in, and there probably are not many undecideds still out there this time.
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SOMEPARTS

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Re: Election Prediction Thread
« Reply #253 on: October 28, 2020, 08:12:52 AM »
Quote from: tom joad on October 28, 2020, 07:42:18 AM
The final national polls for the 2016 race weren't outrageously off.  (Of course, it's only the battleground states that matter though.)

ABC/WAPO:  Hillary +4
Google:  Hillary +2
Ipsos:  Hillary +3
YouGov:  Hillary +4
Gravis:  Hillary +4
Fox:  Hillary +4
CBS/NYT:  Hillary +4
NBC/WSJ:  Hillary +4
IBD/TIPP:  Trump +2
Seizer:  Hillary +3

And Hillary won the popular vote by 2.1%.  Late deciders (who viewed both Hillary & Donald negatively) broke for Trump or stayed home.

More than half of the 2016 vote is already in, and there probably are not many undecideds still out there this time.


Why was the mainstream media reporting that Hillary had a 99% chance of winning?  ::)

Polls will be tightening big time in the next 3-4 days. These people don't want to be Youtube famous again for the next 4 years.
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Grape Ape

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Re: Election Prediction Thread
« Reply #254 on: October 28, 2020, 08:13:46 AM »
Can't imagine the Philly riots helping Biden in PA.
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epic is back

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Re: Election Prediction Thread
« Reply #255 on: October 28, 2020, 08:14:16 AM »
If it’s on tv

You can trust it’s not real
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Thin Lizzy

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Re: Election Prediction Thread
« Reply #256 on: October 28, 2020, 08:14:46 AM »
Quote from: SOMEPARTS on October 28, 2020, 08:12:52 AM

Why was the mainstream media reporting that Hillary had a 99% chance of winning?  ::)

Polls will be tightening big time in the next 3-4 days. These people don't want to be Youtube famous again for the next 4 years.


Act III


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tom joad

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Re: Election Prediction Thread
« Reply #257 on: October 28, 2020, 08:30:11 AM »
Quote from: Thin Lizzy on October 28, 2020, 08:14:46 AM

Act III

who do you think will win the popular vote this time and by how much?
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Body-Buildah

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Re: Election Prediction Thread
« Reply #258 on: October 28, 2020, 08:55:46 AM »
Polls are a joke, completely blown out of the water for any legitimacy back in 2016. No one (with a brain) pays attention to those.

The days of believing the media for anything are way long gone, over.
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tommywishbone

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Re: Election Prediction Thread
« Reply #259 on: October 28, 2020, 09:00:28 AM »
Quote from: AbrahamG on October 27, 2020, 11:02:07 PM
Stupidest post of the day.  You suffer from right wing TDS.  Seek help.

Friendly $100 wager payable via Venmo within 24 hours of the election?  Perhaps a larger dollar amount? Please step right up.
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Andy Griffin

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Re: Election Prediction Thread
« Reply #260 on: October 28, 2020, 09:07:23 AM »
Quote from: tom joad on October 28, 2020, 08:30:11 AM
who do you think will win the popular vote this time and by how much?

Irrelevant
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Thin Lizzy

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Re: Election Prediction Thread
« Reply #261 on: October 28, 2020, 09:14:56 AM »
Quote from: Body-Buildah on October 28, 2020, 08:55:46 AM
Polls are a joke, completely blown out of the water for any legitimacy back in 2016. No one (with a brain) pays attention to those.

The days of believing the media for anything are way long gone, over.

About 40% of the total votes are already in. Everybody still talking about polls is a fraud.
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tom joad

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Re: Election Prediction Thread
« Reply #262 on: October 28, 2020, 09:23:38 AM »
Quote from: Andy Griffin on October 28, 2020, 09:07:23 AM
Irrelevant

Yes, for the winner of the electoral college.  But for those national polls that Thin Lizzy is bashing, it would be interesting to get his take on what the popular vote will be and compare it to the final consensus from the msm re same.
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Grape Ape

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Re: Election Prediction Thread
« Reply #263 on: October 28, 2020, 09:35:43 AM »
Quote from: tommywishbone on October 28, 2020, 09:00:28 AM
Friendly $100 wager payable via Venmo within 24 hours of the election?  Perhaps a larger dollar amount? Please step right up.

Your confidence is admirable.

Personally, I can decide if this election is a straight referendum against Trump, with the believe-anything Karen housewife out voting Biden in full force, or if the silent majority is larger now, disillusioned by the ongoing violence, lack of lawlessness, and corrupt media.
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Thin Lizzy

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Re: Election Prediction Thread
« Reply #264 on: October 28, 2020, 10:58:06 AM »
Quote from: tom joad on October 28, 2020, 08:30:11 AM
who do you think will win the popular vote this time and by how much?

I’ll go Trump wins by 2%

Now, why do pollsters not continually give out their projections for the Electoral College, considering that’s all that counts?
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SOMEPARTS

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Re: Election Prediction Thread
« Reply #265 on: October 28, 2020, 10:58:59 AM »
Quote from: tom joad on October 28, 2020, 08:30:11 AM
who do you think will win the popular vote this time and by how much?


Good to see some libs tempering their expectations/positioning themselves for the loss where it counts, the electoral college.

Media and tech may be able to brainwash and hide info from a large percentage of the country, but the corrupt zombie Biden will never be elected by those that matter.
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TheGrinch

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Re: Election Prediction Thread
« Reply #266 on: October 28, 2020, 11:03:06 AM »
Trump supporters way too confident... just sayin'
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AbrahamG

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Re: Election Prediction Thread
« Reply #267 on: October 28, 2020, 11:11:22 AM »
Quote from: tommywishbone on October 27, 2020, 07:12:53 PM
Anyone who actually really sincerely believes that Biden & Harris stand even a 100-to-1 chance of defeating Trump & Pence is a clueless brainless dumb fuck with no grasp of America. Pull your heads out of your asses dumb fucks.

Trump by a crushing landslide. 🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸

I said this post was stupid because of the 100-1 nonsense. Anyone from either side who thinks this is a slam dunk is beyond delusional. I'll never underestimate Trump but Biden is a better candidate than Hillary and I expect him to outperform her. I'm fine with a friendly wager. I'm pretty ignorant about Venmo though. PM me a link or some info.
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Humble Narcissist

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Re: Election Prediction Thread
« Reply #268 on: October 28, 2020, 11:20:14 AM »
Quote from: AbrahamG on October 28, 2020, 11:11:22 AM
I said this post was stupid because of the 100-1 nonsense. Anyone from either side who thinks this is a slam dunk is beyond delusional. I'll never underestimate Trump but Biden is a better candidate than Hillary and I expect him to outperform her. I'm fine with a friendly wager. I'm pretty ignorant about Venmo though. PM me a link or some info.
Biden is a better candidate?  He has been holed up in his basement for months.
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SOMEPARTS

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Re: Election Prediction Thread
« Reply #269 on: October 28, 2020, 11:23:02 AM »
Quote from: TheGrinch on October 28, 2020, 11:03:06 AM
Trump supporters way too confident... just sayin'


Tommy has that bet above, you going to cover it then?
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tom joad

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Re: Election Prediction Thread
« Reply #270 on: October 28, 2020, 12:50:35 PM »
Quote from: SOMEPARTS on October 28, 2020, 10:58:59 AM

Good to see some libs tempering their expectations/positioning themselves for the loss where it counts, the electoral college.

Media and tech may be able to brainwash and hide info from a large percentage of the country, but the corrupt zombie Biden will never be elected by those that matter.

I predict that Biden wins the electoral college.  Could be a squeaker or could be by quite a comfortable margin.  But a Biden win.
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Board_SHERIF

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Re: Election Prediction Thread
« Reply #271 on: October 28, 2020, 01:33:20 PM »
Biden's Job is to get elected and then he will step down, its already arranged.
Biden will most likely win, his win will be the most fixed/corrupted win ever, and I am including the entire world.
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tommywishbone

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Re: Election Prediction Thread
« Reply #272 on: October 28, 2020, 01:41:54 PM »
Quote from: AbrahamG on October 28, 2020, 11:11:22 AM
I said this post was stupid because of the 100-1 nonsense. Anyone from either side who thinks this is a slam dunk is beyond delusional. I'll never underestimate Trump but Biden is a better candidate than Hillary and I expect him to outperform her. I'm fine with a friendly wager. I'm pretty ignorant about Venmo though. PM me a link or some info.

Reasonable. Very reasonable. 

And yes my 100-1 comments are just internet hyperbole. Nobody would offer 100-1 odds... Just too much downside.  However I do think Biden & Harris are abysmal candidates. Just horrific.  Trump ain't no beauty queen but he is an American first, last and every day of his life. 🇺🇸

No need to set up Venmo for a single wager. However I can recommend Venmo as a fast, safe way to pay or receive payment from almost anyone for almost anything.  Download the app on your phone.  It's free and easy. I'm an old fossil and I did it.

We shall wager "bragging rights" on the election.
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Agnostic007

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Re: Election Prediction Thread
« Reply #273 on: October 28, 2020, 01:48:18 PM »
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Agnostic007

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Re: Election Prediction Thread
« Reply #274 on: October 28, 2020, 01:51:00 PM »
Quote from: Never1AShow on October 28, 2020, 07:08:17 AM
I'd settle for a link to something showing they tweaked the polls to fix being wrong.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-pollsters-have-changed-since-2016-and-what-still-worries-them-about-2020/

They basically didn't factor in education.
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