Author Topic: Election Prediction Thread - Biden vs. Trump - Who will win? (Read 34085 times)

Thin Lizzy · « **Reply #275 on:** October 28, 2020, 02:17:56 PM »

Quote from: Agnostic007 on October 28, 2020, 01:51:00 PM

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-pollsters-have-changed-since-2016-and-what-still-worries-them-about-2020/

They basically didn't factor in education.

There’s also Mail In Voting which has never been tried on this scale. Pollsters have no past history by which they can evaluate this variable. From everything I’ve seen, Vote by Mail has been a backfire.

Agnostic007 · « **Reply #276 on:** October 28, 2020, 02:27:13 PM »

Quote from: Thin Lizzy on October 28, 2020, 02:17:56 PM

There’s also Mail In Voting which has never been tried on this scale. Pollsters have no past history by which they can evaluate this variable. From everything I’ve seen, Vote by Mail has been a backfire.

Don't pollsters just poll people on who they voted for or are voting for? How do you think that will change anything? And how has vote by mail been a backfire?

TheGrinch · « **Reply #277 on:** October 28, 2020, 02:42:00 PM »

and this is FOX news

Biden already won baby!! PEDO is your new POTUS!! then you will kneel before Kamala/Pelosi 2020!!

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/cook-political-report-biden-victory

"It's time to "sound the alarm" that Joe Biden is likely to be the next president of the United States, said Dave Wasserman, US House editor for Cook Political Report, on Tuesday. "

"Wasserman was one of the few political commentators who correctly forecasted President Trump's victory in 2016, writing in FiveThirtyEight two months before the last election that there is an "unusually high chance Donald Trump could win the Electoral College while losing the popular vote.""

Never1AShow · « **Reply #278 on:** October 28, 2020, 02:51:26 PM »

Quote from: Agnostic007 on October 28, 2020, 01:51:00 PM

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-pollsters-have-changed-since-2016-and-what-still-worries-them-about-2020/

They basically didn't factor in education.

"Monmouth University Polling Institute director Patrick Murray cautioned, however, that weighting by education isn’t a silver bullet. He noted that weighting by education in a postmortem analysis of their own polling in 2016 had only “a small impact on accuracy and on its own [did] not explain the supposed polling miss in 2016.” Still, weighting by education was, by far, the most common methodology change pollsters reported."

They write that whole article and it basically discredits itself halfway through. They have no idea this year because they have no way to determine the Rona factor on turnout

Thin Lizzy · « **Reply #279 on:** October 28, 2020, 02:56:36 PM »

Quote from: Agnostic007 on October 28, 2020, 02:27:13 PM

Don't pollsters just poll people on who they voted for or are voting for? How do you think that will change anything? And how has vote by mail been a backfire?

Mail in is essentially a literacy test for low propensity voters. It’s not that easy to get it done.

Where I am, you first have to apply online, wait for the ballot to get sent to you, fill it out and then send it back. And when you have a candidate with no enthusiasm like Biden it has a strong possibility of not going as planned.

From what I’ve seen online, the return rate has not been high in battleground states and now that early voting has started Republicans are eating into the Dem lead. Trump has been shitting all over mailing. Republicans are all going to vote in person.

Republicans always out vote Democrats on election day. Early voting might just make this disparity even greater.

I’m not gonna post links to everything going forward. We’ll find out if I’m right soon enough.

AbrahamG · « **Reply #280 on:** October 28, 2020, 03:17:58 PM »

Quote from: tommywishbone on October 28, 2020, 01:41:54 PM

Reasonable. Very reasonable.

And yes my 100-1 comments are just internet hyperbole. Nobody would offer 100-1 odds... Just too much downside. However I do think Biden & Harris are abysmal candidates. Just horrific. Trump ain't no beauty queen but he is an American first, last and every day of his life. 🇺🇸

No need to set up Venmo for a single wager. However I can recommend Venmo as a fast, safe way to pay or receive payment from almost anyone for almost anything. Download the app on your phone. It's free and easy. I'm an old fossil and I did it.

We shall wager "bragging rights" on the election.

Deal. For better or for worse I cannot wait till all this is over. Hopefully, we have a peaceful process next week and a peaceful transition or non-transition come January.

Body-Buildah · « **Reply #281 on:** October 28, 2020, 04:03:17 PM »

Quote from: AbrahamG on October 28, 2020, 03:17:58 PM

Deal. For better or for worse I cannot wait till all this is over. Hopefully, we have a peaceful process next week and a peaceful transition or non-transition come January.

Well said Abraham.

Dont we all.

Thin Lizzy · « **Reply #282 on:** October 28, 2020, 04:16:37 PM »

Yes, this thread has been surprisingly civil by Getbig standards.

That said, I was asked for some proof that mail in voting is under performing. I believe this is a pretty good clue:

Eric Holder
@EricHolder
It’s too late to use the mails. Given Supreme Court rulings I urge everyone to now vote in person; early vote or use drop boxes. Protect your health but don’t let the Court and the deliberately crippled Postal Service deprive you of your most precious civil right. Plan your vote.

AbrahamG · « **Reply #283 on:** October 28, 2020, 05:27:02 PM »

Quote from: Thin Lizzy on October 28, 2020, 04:16:37 PM

Yes, this thread has been surprisingly civil by Getbig standards.

That said, I was asked for some proof that mail in voting is under performing. I believe this is a pretty good clue:

Eric Holder
@EricHolder
It’s too late to use the mails. Given Supreme Court rulings I urge everyone to now vote in person; early vote or use drop boxes. Protect your health but don’t let the Court and the deliberately crippled Postal Service deprive you of your most precious civil right. Plan your vote.

I read it as though it's too late to guarantee a mail in vote will be there in time to be counted. I don't see the connection between mail in voting under performing.

chaos · « **Reply #284 on:** October 28, 2020, 06:39:17 PM »

Quote from: Agnostic007 on October 28, 2020, 02:27:13 PM

Don't pollsters just poll people on who they voted for or are voting for? How do you think that will change anything? And how has vote by mail been a backfire?

Probably because people are lighting ballot boxes on fire, literally.

Primemuscle · « **Reply #285 on:** October 28, 2020, 06:54:49 PM »

Quote from: tommywishbone on October 27, 2020, 07:12:53 PM

Anyone who actually really sincerely believes that Biden & Harris stand even a 100-to-1 chance of defeating Trump & Pence is a clueless brainless dumb fuck with no grasp of America. Pull your heads out of your asses dumb fucks.

Trump by a crushing landslide. 🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸

And if you are wrong about the election, what will that make you?

Primemuscle · « **Reply #286 on:** October 28, 2020, 07:03:27 PM »

Quote from: Coach is Back! on October 27, 2020, 08:47:10 PM

Internal polls shows the external National polls aren’t correct even though they’re closer. I don’t who’ll win but at this point Biden is losing in all the battleground states and the margin is getting wider

Really? What are your resources for this information. When I just now checked, Biden was ahead in all but one of the battleground states, Ohio. where Trump is ahead 0.6.

An examination of publicly released internal Republican and conservative group polling reveals they're also showing Trump clearly underperforming his 2016 showing.

Trump Campaign’s Internal Polling Shows Biden Winning by ‘Wide Margins’ in Key States. Daily Beast

GOP strategists eyeing dire internal polling say the distancing reflects a marked decline in support for Trump over the last 10 days.
Associated Press

President Trump has seesawed back into a one-point lead over Democrat Joe Biden in Rasmussen Reports’ daily White House Watch survey. Rasmussen Reports

1 point! Wow! He's destroying Biden according to that poll.

The Scott · « **Reply #287 on:** October 28, 2020, 07:16:19 PM »

Quote from: Primemuscle on October 28, 2020, 06:54:49 PM

And if you are wrong about the election, what will that make you?

It would make him wrong about the election but stll correct about who should have won. The dims are now unabashed socialists. As I stated elsewhere to vote dim is to be un-American.

Portland will fall in a heap of ash. So will your neighborhood and more. And why?

Because dimocrats "care" more about deviancy than democracy. They want the Bill of Rights to become the Will of Leftists.

Yes I am that good at expressing myself and that in spite of my limtations. PIty John is gone as he was so much smarter and better at this than I.

Amazing that someone as dumb as I understands this and yet you do not. When they come for you, it will be like looking in a mirror albeit a "fun-house" mirror. By the way, your spawn don't fight fair.

SOMEPARTS · « **Reply #288 on:** October 28, 2020, 08:00:33 PM »

Moontrane · « **Reply #289 on:** October 28, 2020, 09:22:34 PM »

Quote from: SOMEPARTS on October 28, 2020, 08:00:33 PM

WTF?

There must've been copies of everything. This is an incredibly bizarre turn of events.

tommywishbone · « **Reply #290 on:** October 28, 2020, 10:10:21 PM »

Quote from: Primemuscle on October 28, 2020, 06:54:49 PM

And if you are wrong about the election, what will that make you?

A completely out of touch dunce who is living in a dream world.

Humble Narcissist · « **Reply #291 on:** October 29, 2020, 02:42:24 AM »

Quote from: TheGrinch on October 28, 2020, 02:42:00 PM

and this is FOX news

Biden already won baby!! PEDO is your new POTUS!! then you will kneel before Kamala/Pelosi 2020!!

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/cook-political-report-biden-victory

"It's time to "sound the alarm" that Joe Biden is likely to be the next president of the United States, said Dave Wasserman, US House editor for Cook Political Report, on Tuesday. "

"Wasserman was one of the few political commentators who correctly forecasted President Trump's victory in 2016, writing in FiveThirtyEight two months before the last election that there is an "unusually high chance Donald Trump could win the Electoral College while losing the popular vote.""

That Kamala will never make it to the White House because he's dead.

tom joad · « **Reply #292 on:** October 29, 2020, 05:47:50 AM »

Quote from: SOMEPARTS on October 28, 2020, 08:00:33 PM

WTF?

the dog ate my homework.

Thin Lizzy · « **Reply #293 on:** October 29, 2020, 05:54:32 AM »

Liberal media trying to throw cold water on a blowout GDP number. Horrible news for Libs:

GDP rose by 33.1 percent last quarter, but blowout figure is not what it seems.

https://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/gdp-rose-33-1-percent-last-quarter-blowout-figure-not-n1245068

harmankardon1 · « **Reply #294 on:** October 29, 2020, 06:34:28 AM »

Quote from: Thin Lizzy on October 29, 2020, 05:54:32 AM

Liberal media trying to throw cold water on a blowout GDP number. Horrible news for Libs:

GDP rose by 33.1 percent last quarter, but blowout figure is not what it seems.

https://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/gdp-rose-33-1-percent-last-quarter-blowout-figure-not-n1245068

Aren't they despicable.... There's no limits to how low they will go to... Everybody knows it.

If trump was to actually lose the election I hope he will start his own news network, I have heard this mentioned as a possibility..

Thin Lizzy · « **Reply #295 on:** October 29, 2020, 06:46:31 AM »

Quote from: harmankardon1 on October 29, 2020, 06:34:28 AM

Aren't they despicable.... There's no limits to how low they will go to... Everybody knows it.

If trump was to actually lose the election I hope he will start his own news network, I have heard this mentioned as a possibility..

Trump making huge gains among Hispanics is FL:

Yahoo is as Liberal as it gets:

https://sports.yahoo.com/poll-biden-holds-narrow-lead-100008593.html

ORLANDO, Fla. — Joe Biden has a narrow lead among Florida Hispanic voters but is running well behind Hillary Clinton’s 2016 performance, according to a new poll released Thursday by Telemundo.

harmankardon1 · « **Reply #296 on:** October 29, 2020, 07:00:52 AM »

Quote from: Thin Lizzy on October 29, 2020, 06:46:31 AM

Trump making huge gains among Hispanics is FL:

Yahoo is as Liberal as it gets:

https://sports.yahoo.com/poll-biden-holds-narrow-lead-100008593.html

ORLANDO, Fla. — Joe Biden has a narrow lead among Florida Hispanic voters but is running well behind Hillary Clinton’s 2016 performance, according to a new poll released Thursday by Telemundo.

the polls are a fucking mess. They've got one with trump up 5, then two with him down 20..... That's a 25 percent inaccuracy lol.

What we do know is The majority of pollsters desperately want Biden and the dems to win...

harmankardon1 · « **Reply #297 on:** October 29, 2020, 07:02:23 AM »

If trump wins, the pollsters should be totally ignored into the future....

Let's pray he does win.

OlympiaGym · « **Reply #298 on:** October 29, 2020, 08:29:59 AM »

FOX News just said that Trump has no chance in MN or WI. It also says GA is seriously in play for Biden.

Primemuscle · « **Reply #299 on:** October 29, 2020, 09:24:55 AM »

Quote from: The Scott on October 28, 2020, 07:16:19 PM

It would make him wrong about the election but stll correct about who should have won. The dims are now unabashed socialists. As I stated elsewhere to vote dim is to be un-American.

Portland will fall in a heap of ash. So will your neighborhood and more. And why?

Because dimocrats "care" more about deviancy than democracy. They want the Bill of Rights to become the Will of Leftists.

Yes I am that good at expressing myself and that in spite of my limtations. PIty John is gone as he was so much smarter and better at this than I.

Amazing that someone as dumb as I understands this and yet you do not. When they come for you, it will be like looking in a mirror albeit a "fun-house" mirror. By the way, your spawn don't fight fair.

Are you using the word spawn loosely? One definition of spawn is someone's offspring or children. If you meant to describe other Democrats, unless they are my actual children, they are not my spawn. If you think Democrats don't fight fairly, that's fine. I think some Republicans are liars and cheats, particularly one who has changed his party affiliation five times since 1987 when he was 41 years old....kind of old for someone to start exercising their right to vote.

Trump registered as a Republican in Manhattan in 1987 and since that time has changed his party affiliation five times. In 1999, Trump changed his party affiliation to the Independence Party of New York. In August 2001, Trump changed his party affiliation to Democratic. In September 2009, Trump changed his party affiliation back to the Republican Party. In December 2011, Trump changed to "no party affiliation" (independent). In April 2012, Trump again returned to the Republican Party.