I think if you take the 50-60% increase in wealth that billionaires gained in the last 2 years there is probably a number there to extrapolate out what their expectations are for the future, whether that be permanent inflation or the amount they need to buy up assets on the cheap.
These are the lobbyists to govt, so I try and think like them...I assume by working backward you can also figure out the future policy and likely outcome.
They have punished cash for so long a deflationary period however short would be welcome.
Inflation of a dollar value is permanent whereas inflation as a percentage is transitory.
QE can be thought of as a payoff to the wealthy not to collapse the entire system.
You don’t hear anything about QE needing quarterly approval yet all stimmy money is held to political ransom and requires furious debate and approval process…….
Therefore QE does not necessarily require a deflationary event to be approved. However, stimmy does require a deflationary event such as poor Christmas consumer spending, job layoffs, low mortgage approvals etc. those things provide a trigger for a market sell off due to poor financials which then opens the approval door for stimmy money.
CPI can go higher because we are in high consumer seasonality, freight is high, raw goods are high, inventory shortages = higher ave price. But it won’t stay there. We might go to 7%-8% then rip back to 2% for a bit then back to 8%.
The cure for higher prices is higher prices so it bursts. What is changing though is our bottom reset prices are much higher than 2019. Lumber was 1,600 now back at a bottom of 550 instead of 150. Coal was 230 now down to 140 instead of 50.
Hence, productivity goes down, consumption down, shortages get worse, prices ramp up hard. The govts have prevented crazy unemployment by UBI to workplaces. So they solved that part which history suffered but we will buy out all remaining inventory now. Prices will explode much higher and faster than history because of UBI meaning shortages will hit like a light switch Effect.