Author Topic: What's Going To Happen To The Commercial Real Estate Market  (Read 1829 times)

Palumboism

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What's Going To Happen To The Commercial Real Estate Market
« on: February 19, 2022, 07:32:21 AM »
Online shopping has crushed retail real estate and Covid has changed the way people work and companies run resulting in significantly less need for office space.  In addition, many restaurants, gyms, and small businesses have been run out of business during the "pandemic" and manufacturing has all been shipped to China or Mexico.

What is the future for commercial real estate?  Will high cost downtown areas like New York, San Francisco, and Chicago recover to their previous levels? 


Hypertrophy

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Re: What's Going To Happen To The Commercial Real Estate Market
« Reply #1 on: February 19, 2022, 08:14:37 AM »
Online shopping has crushed retail real estate and Covid has changed the way people work and companies run resulting in significantly less need for office space.  In addition, many restaurants, gyms, and small businesses have been run out of business during the "pandemic" and manufacturing has all been shipped to China or Mexico.

What is the future for commercial real estate?  Will high cost downtown areas like New York, San Francisco, and Chicago recover to their previous levels?


If there is money to be made, yes. Nothing is permanent- everything is always in a state of change.


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IroNat

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Re: What's Going To Happen To The Commercial Real Estate Market
« Reply #2 on: February 19, 2022, 09:26:46 AM »
Not just commercial R/E...

Albany’s ‘No Eviction Ever’ bill will devastate landlords — and NY’s housing stock

https://nypost.com/2022/02/18/albanys-no-eviction-ever-bill-will-devastate-landlords-and-nys-housing-stock/

Hypertrophy

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Re: What's Going To Happen To The Commercial Real Estate Market
« Reply #3 on: February 19, 2022, 09:36:04 AM »
Not just commercial R/E...

Albany’s ‘No Eviction Ever’ bill will devastate landlords — and NY’s housing stock

https://nypost.com/2022/02/18/albanys-no-eviction-ever-bill-will-devastate-landlords-and-nys-housing-stock/


NYS government has a death wish. Watch how fast buildings become slums if that becomes law.

a_pupil

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Re: What's Going To Happen To The Commercial Real Estate Market
« Reply #4 on: February 19, 2022, 10:17:44 AM »
Bigger places can switch to storage spots for online businesses. But small shop fronts are screwed.

Palumboism

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Re: What's Going To Happen To The Commercial Real Estate Market
« Reply #5 on: February 19, 2022, 11:44:17 AM »
WHAT'S IN IT FOR YOU?


Palumboism

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Re: What's Going To Happen To The Commercial Real Estate Market
« Reply #6 on: February 19, 2022, 11:56:50 AM »
New York governor begs people to return to office "so we can all thrive"


Humble Narcissist

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Re: What's Going To Happen To The Commercial Real Estate Market
« Reply #7 on: February 19, 2022, 12:13:46 PM »
Not just commercial R/E...

Albany’s ‘No Eviction Ever’ bill will devastate landlords — and NY’s housing stock

https://nypost.com/2022/02/18/albanys-no-eviction-ever-bill-will-devastate-landlords-and-nys-housing-stock/
WTF? So, just move in and never pay rent again for life. Are libtards really this stupid to believe we can have a society like this?

Irongrip400

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Re: What's Going To Happen To The Commercial Real Estate Market
« Reply #8 on: February 19, 2022, 01:22:07 PM »
Bigger places can switch to storage spots for online businesses. But small shop fronts are screwed.

This. Not that I’m the only one who had this epiphany, but as soon  as I saw the people being able to work from home, I knew it was only a matter of time before the commercial bubble was going to pop like the housing bubble of 2008. Some are locked into leases for a while, but it’s only a matter of time before those spaces empty out. Whatever isn’t taken up by the big places like Amazon will become barren landscapes.

On the flip side, industrial property, you cannot even find now. So maybe that balances it out?

Mayday

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Re: What's Going To Happen To The Commercial Real Estate Market
« Reply #9 on: February 19, 2022, 05:29:27 PM »
The answer is straight forward. Commercial will be rezoned.

Western world is crazy archaic when it comes to retail vs Asia.

Gym-Rat

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Re: What's Going To Happen To The Commercial Real Estate Market
« Reply #10 on: February 19, 2022, 07:49:23 PM »
WTF? So, just move in and never pay rent again for life. Are libtards really this stupid to believe we can have a society like this?

yes, ten-fold

Matt C

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Re: What's Going To Happen To The Commercial Real Estate Market
« Reply #11 on: February 19, 2022, 07:58:23 PM »
WTF? So, just move in and never pay rent again for life. Are libtards really this stupid to believe we can have a society like this?

This is absolutely insane.  The answer I get from some people when I talk about this is "What rights did you lose?", or "You're not starving yet."

Yeah, I've only lost the right to go to commercial gyms, restaurants, theatres, LEAVE MY COUNTRY MY AIRPLANE, etc.  But yeah, no rights at all.  ::)

I am VERY lucky to know that I haven't missed a rent check yet.  In 2021, Ontario had a rent-freeze too, but I don't know if our premier quietly renewed it in 2022.  If so, it's only a matter of time before people stop paying rent, and landlords are forced to kick them out for some other reason.

There is no way that this insane social justice world - communism, basically - will last.  Tyranny never lasts.  LMAO @ not paying rent.  Yeah, that's sustainable.  ::)

The modern-day left is mentally ill.
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ProudVirgin69

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Re: What's Going To Happen To The Commercial Real Estate Market
« Reply #12 on: February 21, 2022, 02:20:34 AM »
It’s a changing world, WFH is better for everyone But the commercial landlords.  There’s no reason to have to go into the office full time anymore. 

Humble Narcissist

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Re: What's Going To Happen To The Commercial Real Estate Market
« Reply #13 on: February 21, 2022, 02:25:42 AM »
It’s a changing world, WFH is better for everyone But the commercial landlords.  There’s no reason to have to go into the office full time anymore.
Except work production plummets. Most are not disciplined enough to work from home.

ProudVirgin69

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Re: What's Going To Happen To The Commercial Real Estate Market
« Reply #14 on: February 21, 2022, 02:36:29 AM »
Except work production plummets. Most are not disciplined enough to work from home.

That’s not really borne out by available evidence.  Certainly not conclusively, and meanwhile plenty of top companies are offering remote options for their workers.  It’ll be tough to attract top talent without offering some flexibility.  From the company’s side: why lease the expensive office when we can downsize and pass those costs to our employees.

Maybe not all jobs and maybe not completely remote but WFH is here to stay in one way or another

Humble Narcissist

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Re: What's Going To Happen To The Commercial Real Estate Market
« Reply #15 on: February 21, 2022, 02:51:26 AM »
That’s not really borne out by available evidence.  Certainly not conclusively, and meanwhile plenty of top companies are offering remote options for their workers.  It’ll be tough to attract top talent without offering some flexibility.  From the company’s side: why lease the expensive office when we can downsize and pass those costs to our employees.

Maybe not all jobs and maybe not completely remote but WFH is here to stay in one way or another
The companies will eventually hire all foreign employees because they are cheaper by the hour and no benefits. Many American WFH's are cutting their own throats.

Thin Lizzy

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Re: What's Going To Happen To The Commercial Real Estate Market
« Reply #16 on: February 21, 2022, 03:05:12 AM »
Zoom was the darling work from home stock. It has plummeted back to 2020 levels:


Thin Lizzy

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Re: What's Going To Happen To The Commercial Real Estate Market
« Reply #17 on: February 21, 2022, 03:06:47 AM »
Pretty interesting study on the subject:


https://bfi.uchicago.edu/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/BFI_WP_2021-56.pdf




In our sample, employees were able to maintain similar or just slightly lower levels of output during WFH. In order to do so, they worked longer hours. Despite this, employees had less focus time to perform tasks, and the net effect was a drop in productivity. It would be interesting to see if this change is sustainable, especially in light of evidence of the adverse effect of long work hours on employee well-being, and mental and physical health (Sparks et al., 1997; Sokejima and Kagamimori, 1998; Sparks et al., 2001).
It is likely that WFH also resulted in a decline in intangibles that are valuable to the employee and company. Working relationships, professional networks and corporate culture may have suffered. More subtly, when people work in the same location, they experience unplanned interactions. That can lead to new working relationships, and “productive accidents” that spur innovation. It is not easy to generate similar unplanned interactions on teleconferences. Finally, employees had fewer opportunities for coaching, and meeting directly with supervisors. This undoubtedly slowed their development of human capital.

We explored several possible explanations for the decline in productivity. Our main explanation is that some aspects of work are more difficult to perform in a virtual environment. We provide clear evidence that this is the case. More time was spent in meetings, and those tended to involve larger groups. Less time was spent in direct interactions with the supervisor or colleagues. Employees also narrowed their spheres of communication, interacting with fewer people and business units, both inside and outside the firm. Collectively these indicate that costs of communication, collaboration and coordination are higher when done virtually. Moreover, these factors are likely causes of changes in focus time, and in the decline in productivity.

Marty Champions

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Re: What's Going To Happen To The Commercial Real Estate Market
« Reply #18 on: February 21, 2022, 04:51:57 AM »
It wont become law
A

Palumboism

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Re: What's Going To Happen To The Commercial Real Estate Market
« Reply #19 on: February 21, 2022, 05:14:35 AM »
That’s not really borne out by available evidence.  Certainly not conclusively, and meanwhile plenty of top companies are offering remote options for their workers.  It’ll be tough to attract top talent without offering some flexibility.  From the company’s side: why lease the expensive office when we can downsize and pass those costs to our employees.

Maybe not all jobs and maybe not completely remote but WFH is here to stay in one way or another

The companies will eventually hire all foreign employees because they are cheaper by the hour and no benefits. Many American WFH's are cutting their own throats.


I agree with both of these posts.  Companies will do everything they can to reduce costs by using new methods and technologies.  Expect even more of this to occur in the future with every new technology changing the game forever.  I believe autonomous and EVTOL technology will completely upend the transportation and distribution industries resulting in huge winners and huge losers.




 


Irongrip400

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Re: What's Going To Happen To The Commercial Real Estate Market
« Reply #20 on: February 21, 2022, 09:03:32 AM »

I agree with both of these posts.  Companies will do everything they can to reduce costs by using new methods and technologies.  Expect even more of this to occur in the future with every new technology changing the game forever.  I believe autonomous and EVTOL technology will completely upend the transportation and distribution industries resulting in huge winners and huge losers.

It’s amazing to see, that even jobs that you’d think would have no way of being remote, may very well have that capability in the near future. I’ve seen heavy equipment operator programs allowing the operator to be remote and run the machine. Although, you still have to “feel” the work I believe to perform optimally.

Humble Narcissist

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Re: What's Going To Happen To The Commercial Real Estate Market
« Reply #21 on: February 21, 2022, 11:02:39 AM »

I agree with both of these posts.  Companies will do everything they can to reduce costs by using new methods and technologies.  Expect even more of this to occur in the future with every new technology changing the game forever.  I believe autonomous and EVTOL technology will completely upend the transportation and distribution industries resulting in huge winners and huge losers.
Universal Basic Income.

GymnJuice

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Re: What's Going To Happen To The Commercial Real Estate Market
« Reply #22 on: February 21, 2022, 11:45:40 AM »
Universal Basic Income.

Just when you thought inflation was as bad as it could get...

Humble Narcissist

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Re: What's Going To Happen To The Commercial Real Estate Market
« Reply #23 on: February 21, 2022, 11:52:19 AM »
Just when you thought inflation was as bad as it could get...
Eventually everyone will be equally poor.

IroNat

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Re: What's Going To Happen To The Commercial Real Estate Market
« Reply #24 on: February 21, 2022, 12:36:15 PM »
Universal Basic Income.

Universal Remote Income.