Russia has penetrated Ukraine

[BigRo]

Not a full scale war by any stretch of the imagination.

Why would they intentionally hold back from achieving their objectives as swiftly as possible? They went all in at the beginning trying to take Kyiv thinking it would be a walk in the park and got kicked back. The more needless deaths the lower the moral in Russia so why not dominate swiftly and save the lives of your own people? They tried but could not and still struggle to take a few km here and there.

[dj181]

Why would they intentionally hold back from achieving their objectives as swiftly as possible? They went all in at the beginning trying to take Kyiv thinking it would be a walk in the park and got kicked back. The more needless deaths the lower the moral in Russia so why not dominate swiftly and save the lives of your own people? They tried but could not and still struggle to take a few km here and there.

The woman I got the hotel with said that Ukrainian women and children come here to see thier husbands/father's who are on break from the navy and she said that they go back to Ukraine on their own choice so therefore it's thier fault when they lose their lives from Russian attack

A bit harsh thing to say if you ask me

[joswift]

The woman I got the hotel with said that Ukrainian women and children come here to see thier husbands/father's who are on break from the navy and she said that they go back to Ukraine on their own choice so therefore it's thier fault when they lose their lives from Russian attack

A bit harsh thing to say if you ask me

did you get that with the $4 you had left?

[Van_Bilderass]

Why would they intentionally hold back from achieving their objectives as swiftly as possible? They went all in at the beginning trying to take Kyiv thinking it would be a walk in the park and got kicked back. The more needless deaths the lower the moral in Russia so why not dominate swiftly and save the lives of your own people? They tried but could not and still struggle to take a few km here and there.

Just speculating, and from what others have said, the calculation always has to take into account what other countries will do as a response, not just Ukraine. Just like Ukraine has to take into account what the response would be if they somehow could kill Putin. Or what Iran's and the Muslim world's response would be if The Supreme Leader in Iran would be assassinated. I think Russia doesn't want the US involved even more overtly. They don't want WWIII. I mean I think Russia has held back on doing assassinations of the Ukrainan leadership until now, surely they could do that if they wanted to? At the same time I'm sure they have had miscalculations and fails, but they're supposed to have many contingency plans in place.

[chaos]

What do you base your assertion on?

Do you honestly think the US would openly tell their competitors that they are almost out of Patriot missiles? That would be like Ukraine and Russia being honest about the number of troops killed.

[Van_Bilderass]

Do you honestly think the US would openly tell their competitors that they are almost out of Patriot missiles? That would be like Ukraine and Russia being honest about the number of troops killed.

Honestly, governments often try to keep weapon stocks as secret as possible, I concede that. However you have to look into it as much as possible, what data and info is available and then decide. The US keeps tabs on other countries' weapons stocks constantly and have estimates, they may not know exactly but approximately. In the US I understand weapons manufacturing is by private companies, which the government then pays them for (and apparently is why they cost more to manufacture in the US) and they have public records of what their targets are for the year and future years for different weapons. The manufacturing sites locations and workforce numbers are public. I understand that in other countries the government owns the companies and factories and so on. But take the Patriot missiles for example, if the stocks were plentiful the US would gladly sell as many of them as they possibly could, because that's the goal of the MIC right? They wouldn't have to ask other NATO countries, or even non-NATO countries, to send their Patriots to Israel or Ukraine, whatever the case may be, don't you think? The US has asked other countries to please let Ukraine have the Patriots they have already ordered and been promised, to wait longer. Ukraine is begging the US for Patriots and other weapons constantly, and they would buy them from the US with other NATO countries' monies but it's just not happening. The US would gladly take that money. Unless you know otherwise?

It appears the US has had to tell the whole world of the situation with the shortages, China and other countries are obviously watching. In fact some Chinese politician has recently said that they prefer the US keeps the Ukraine-Russia conflict going as long as possible because the US is depleting its stock and can't 'pivot to Asia' while this situation is ongoing, and Trump and his admin has said numerous times they would like the conflict to end because they need to pivot. Israel too needs more US weapons and the Iran conflict had to temporarily pause because Israel was out of US weapons, the air-defense missiles primarily. The importance of weapons support in US policy is said to be as follows: Taiwan first, Israel second and then Ukraine. I was a bit surprised that Israel wasn't first.

[dj181]

Supposedly Ukraine can now or will soon have the capability of striking the Scow of Petersburg

So glad that chump gave me the heads up to leave the Scow

[Griffith]

Honestly, governments often try to keep weapon stocks as secret as possible, I concede that. However you have to look into it as much as possible, what data and info is available and then decide. The US keeps tabs on other countries' weapons stocks constantly and have estimates, they may not know exactly but approximately. In the US I understand weapons manufacturing is by private companies, which the government then pays them for (and apparently is why they cost more to manufacture in the US) and they have public records of what their targets are for the year and future years for different weapons. The manufacturing sites locations and workforce numbers are public. I understand that in other countries the government owns the companies and factories and so on. But take the Patriot missiles for example, if the stocks were plentiful the US would gladly sell as many of them as they possibly could, because that's the goal of the MIC right? They wouldn't have to ask other NATO countries, or even non-NATO countries, to send their Patriots to Israel or Ukraine, whatever the case may be, don't you think? The US has asked other countries to please let Ukraine have the Patriots they have already ordered and been promised, to wait longer. Ukraine is begging the US for Patriots and other weapons constantly, and they would buy them from the US with other NATO countries' monies but it's just not happening. The US would gladly take that money. Unless you know otherwise?

It appears the US has had to tell the whole world of the situation with the shortages, China and other countries are obviously watching. In fact some Chinese politician has recently said that they prefer the US keeps the Ukraine-Russia conflict going as long as possible because the US is depleting its stock and can't 'pivot to Asia' while this situation is ongoing, and Trump and his admin has said numerous times they would like the conflict to end because they need to pivot. Israel too needs more US weapons and the Iran conflict had to temporarily pause because Israel was out of US weapons, the air-defense missiles primarily. The importance of weapons support in US policy is said to be as follows: Taiwan first, Israel second and then Ukraine. I was a bit surprised that Israel wasn't first.

Which tells us the endgame here is China.

[honest]

Russia started a full scale war in 2022. Call a war a war.

If it was a war Ukraine would already be a province of Russia.  Russia have been fighting NATO since day 4 or 5, just Ukrainian pawns or cannon fodder on the front lines, few kms back its all NATO special forces. Which has basically canceled out Russia advance or contained them to incremental trench type warfare.   

[BigRo]

Fantasy land.

[IroNat]

Supposedly Ukraine can now or will soon have the capability of striking the Scow of Petersburg

So glad that chump gave me the heads up to leave the Scow

The Ukes have already hit Moscow with drone attacks.

[joswift]

The Ukes have already hit Moscow with drone attacks.

they best be careful in case the Nukes hit Kiev

[Donny]

I worked on one of these..they can fire a nuclear round. did the training twice with the Americans.

[Donny]

a beautiful Gun.. still gives me a hard on 

[Donny]

Self Propelled Guns, quick & easy nowadays to bring into action with AGLS Sat.
Back in the day we had to Lay the Guns ourselves..real Gunners 
Dangerous as it can quickly fire a nuclear round & move ..

[Griffith]

The G6 is a South African self-propelled howitzer. It was used in the Angolan Border War.

[Donny]

The G6 is a South African self-propelled howitzer. It was used in the Angolan Border War.

Nice Gun & perfect for that terrian. The Driver had it better than us was freezing at times. The French are big fans of this type of Artillery ..wheeled.

[Donny]

  Old School

[IroNat]

USMC

[Irongrip400]

Self Propelled Guns, quick & easy nowadays to bring into action with AGLS Sat.
Back in the day we had to Lay the Guns ourselves..real Gunners 
Dangerous as it can quickly fire a nuclear round & move ..

Why are these not called tanks?

[Griffith]

Why are these not called tanks?

They have the same role as regular 155mm artillery, except mobile.

[IroNat]

The United States Is Running Dangerously Low on Patriot Missiles

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/united-states-running-dangerously-low-patriot-missiles-ps

[Van_Bilderass]

The United States Is Running Dangerously Low on Patriot Missiles

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/united-states-running-dangerously-low-patriot-missiles-ps

Like I've said. But others either think that either this is propaganda or they are ignorant and wrong or that the admin is lying to trick their adversaries. The admin itself says they don't have enough interceptors, Rubio told congress that. The weapons deliveries were stopped by Hegseth to "take inventory of existing stock," but it didn't mean there was no shortage White House actually claimed Hegseth took this measure without informing them... then typically Trump said he actually knew everything LOLOL. But these contrarians offer no data or plausible explanations for why they KNOW there's no shortage at all, "if you think US is short on ANY weapons I've got a bridge to sell you.." Come on man (in Biden voice).

If it was a war Ukraine would already be a province of Russia.  Russia have been fighting NATO since day 4 or 5, just Ukrainian pawns or cannon fodder on the front lines, few kms back its all NATO special forces. Which has basically canceled out Russia advance or contained them to incremental trench type warfare.   

I think Russia has been fighting NATO since the 90s. Lavrov issued a veiled warning now, no matter if Russia is communist, some type of capitalist, seeking western cooperation, whatever, the West is intent on destroying Russia. They understand it very well, they know this is a proxy war with US at the helm, OF COURSE they know but they want to keep the diplomacy going until the last moment. Ok, let's say Russia IS evil to its core, doesn't change the fact that Russia is pushed closer and closer to the 'Oreshnik moment' or worse. At some point their constant diplomatic efforts end and they will be 'forced' to respond (from their POV). I don't know why many refuse to accept that Russia could end the war decisively at any moment, it's not a Total War now. Commenters think all Russia can do is take a few km here and there and they are at a breaking point militarily and economically. As if Russia couldn't kill Zelensky and all the leaders at any moment. Trump actually said just now "I'm not on either side."

I read and watch all this Russophile propaganda. If BigRo or others can give me some alternative intelligent analysis or name some analysts or resources who "prove" otherwise with data and so on I'd love to take a look. But I think they only look at some headlines in the MSM... there's no response to me showing or "proving" the "Nazi" connections in Ukraine or anything else I say so should "we" (for example you or me or IroNat in this one instance on the shortages) just take their word for it? I think the method of counting Russian losses I cited on the previous page was interesting too, but here it is again (amazingly the analysis method can't be applied to Ukr losses):

[joswift]

Maybe Putin and Zelensky are just draining the Wests weaponry and economies?

[Van_Bilderass]

Maybe Putin and Zelensky are just draining the Wests weaponry and economies?

And Russia is attritioning the human manpower. At some point it all breaks for the Ukranians, when that happens I don't know, but it's probably close... Russia's troop numbers are increasing very rapidly all the time, while supposedly losing troops at 10:1 ratio compared to Ukraine.

Axios offerd this analysis for the ambiguous 50 day deadline, implying Trump thinks Russia is taking a lot more in the next 2 months and he approves of it. It's probably wrong though.

And another on the shortages.