Like 2020, I think this election will come down to who bothers to go out and vote. Trump, like he did in 2020, has the most vocal, most animated followers... no doubt. His followers are rabid in their support. He has a lot of them
The anti Trump crowd seems to be more resolved. Say what you want, wear the hats, buy the flags.. but at the end of the day, I'll get off my butt and vote Biden because the alternative is disgusting.
Whether that sentiment is strong enough this time around is anyone's guess. I suspect it will be a close race, not because Biden is so wonderful in the eyes of the majority, but because Trump is so awful. That of course will bring out the "always Trump" responses.. but in my opinion, it comes down to holding your nose and voting either candidate. I personally think among the majority, Trump is the least desirable.. but, Biden is weaker than he was in 2020 so it's any bodies guess at this point.