Federal Reserve - 0.25% rate rise today 03-22-22 from the Fed

[sculpture]

Why would the DXY going down give cause for a rate cut? I thought they would have kept rates high to defend the currency

Likewise won't a strong dollar weaken the purchasing power of foreign buyers of equities

[Flexacon]

I’m still sidelined, lithoum recyclers and rural on a large leg down and Im waitiing to see an entry.

DXY at a turning point. If we go down it’s metals and rate cut, if we go up DXY to new highs, equities to new highs, oil to new highs. Metals and crypto to nuke.

DXY up, but not a new high this year.

Equities higher in May, down in June and the chop fest continues.

Oil lower, Opec maybe cuts again to pump it, but it's mostly heading down.

Metals are already starting to drop, recession drops it further. Big gold rally afterwards.

Crypto pops in May, drops by June, sustained summer lull.

Nothing is super bearish or bullish.

Fed will go to 5.75% and hold for as long possible. Decent chance of no cuts this year.

[Mayday]

Why would the DXY going down give cause for a rate cut? I thought they would have kept rates high to defend the currency

Likewise won't a strong dollar weaken the purchasing power of foreign buyers of equities

A few posts back we touched on some ideas.

in a nutshell peak rates = peak dollar

It’s an inconvenient truth because nobody wants to believe right now that rates can go higher which would also correlate with higher DXY, higher oil and new ATH S&P.

i was wrong In my initial thoughts which is why I sold my silver miner position because the DXY looked to double bottom whereas I though it’d go down to 0.96 (it still might).

So the argument becomes the Fed was unable to crack the job market or raise rates higher enough. Now a with a 2024 election time is running out as either govt will announce large fiscal policies. Therefore rates will go up meaning DXY high is not in nor is oil peak in which means metals will get wrecked, hence I sold.

[Mayday]

DXY up, but not a new high this year.

Equities higher in May, down in June and the chop fest continues.

Oil lower, Opec maybe cuts again to pump it, but it's mostly heading down.

Metals are already starting to drop, recession drops it further. Big gold rally afterwards.

Crypto pops in May, drops by June, sustained summer lull.

Nothing is super bearish or bullish.

Fed will go to 5.75% and hold for as long possible. Decent chance of no cuts this year.

If history repeats, if rates go up DXY has not seen a peak nor has oil.

Metals are dropping because of the huge FOMO. Down here the miners are overheated like crazy. Maybe gut neeay-June to play out and see where they land.

Biden says no recession. We had a recession in 2022 and everybody forgot. Probably the same in 2023?

[Flexacon]

If history repeats, if rates go up DXY has not seen a peak nor has oil.

Metals are dropping because of the huge FOMO. Down here the miners are overheated like crazy. Maybe gut neeay-June to play out and see where they land.

Biden says no recession. We had a recession in 2022 and everybody forgot. Probably the same in 2023?

The little I know about Aussie markets is that they really do "sell in May and go away", so there could be a seasonal element and front running there.

Some are saying we're already in a recession and have good numbers to back those claims, but it might take 6 to 8 months for it to be declared. The FED saying they expect a mild recession makes me think that mild is actually a best case scenario. They said the same thing before the GFC.

Other than for historical reasons, why would DXY and oil need to hit new highs if say the FED go to 5.75% and holds?

Equities will find it difficult to hit new highs this year. Why would serious money take the risk with equities right now when there are other risk free instruments offering them 5%-7% returns? Liquidity is dead. Markets are pumping on 0DTEs otherwise struggle to make much of a move up even with 15% pumps on some of the biggest stocks. Vix is dead, the markets are garbage and it's all a shit show right now.

[Mayday]

The little I know about Aussie markets is that they really do "sell in May and go away", so there could be a seasonal element and front running there.

Some are saying we're already in a recession and have good numbers to back those claims, but it might take 6 to 8 months for it to be declared. The FED saying they expect a mild recession makes me think that mild is actually a best case scenario. They said the same thing before the GFC.

Other than for historical reasons, why would DXY and oil need to hit new highs if say the FED go to 5.75% and holds?

Equities will find it difficult to hit new highs this year. Why would serious money take the risk with equities right now when there are other risk free instruments offering them 5%-7% returns? Liquidity is dead. Markets are pumping on 0DTEs otherwise struggle to make much of a move up even with 15% pumps on some of the biggest stocks. Vix is dead, the markets are garbage and it's all a shit show right now.

The last 40yrs S&P rallied up to peak rates. Go back 60yrs and there is only a few times the S&P sold off prior to peak rates. We have much more probability of correlation that peak rates = peak S&P. If the S&P has already peaked it means for the first time ever the market front ran every single rate hike
Before it happened and got all of them correct.

Oil is basically the same. Peak rates = peak oil or oil does a GFC and peaks after rate peak. DXY also in the same bucket and trends higher. With peaking rates.

We are not yet at peak rates as May will be +0.25% yet if we were to believe Raoul Pal he says the market looks forward 6 months and has priced everything in and he believes the bond market is right 99% of the time. He already got stopped out longing bonds and his second attempt is barely above water. I noticed in a recent clip when he brags about his positions 4/5 were crypto which pretty much says his take has been wrong. the market sold off almost 1.5yrs years ago in anticipation of rate cuts being already here yet we are still hiking.

Job market is not close to cracking and looks nothing like it did in the previous 8 recessions. GDP is positive. Spending is positive. No defaults. PE ratios look good.

Look at how extended above trend the US money supply is. We peaked at 25% above trend, now 19% and people think nobody has any money and if the Fed doesn’t cut to 0% tomorrow it all collapses.

There is zero scenario in history where the market sold off, sat flat while rates went higher. The market always went up and set new highs out to peak rates. So at least to my eyes I need to get rates right to take the right position but as more time passes more data is suggesting we need to go up.

[Flexacon]

The last 40yrs S&P rallied up to peak rates. Go back 60yrs and there is only a few times the S&P sold off prior to peak rates. We have much more probability of correlation that peak rates = peak S&P. If the S&P has already peaked it means for the first time ever the market front ran every single rate hike
Before it happened and got all of them correct.

Oil is basically the same. Peak rates = peak oil or oil does a GFC and peaks after rate peak. DXY also in the same bucket and trends higher. With peaking rates.

We are not yet at peak rates as May will be +0.25% yet if we were to believe Raoul Pal he says the market looks forward 6 months and has priced everything in and he believes the bond market is right 99% of the time. He already got stopped out longing bonds and his second attempt is barely above water. I noticed in a recent clip when he brags about his positions 4/5 were crypto which pretty much says his take has been wrong. the market sold off almost 1.5yrs years ago in anticipation of rate cuts being already here yet we are still hiking.

Job market is not close to cracking and looks nothing like it did in the previous 8 recessions. GDP is positive. Spending is positive. No defaults. PE ratios look good.

Look at how extended above trend the US money supply is. We peaked at 25% above trend, now 19% and people think nobody has any money and if the Fed doesn’t cut to 0% tomorrow it all collapses.

There is zero scenario in history where the market sold off, sat flat while rates went higher. The market always went up and set new highs out to peak rates. So at least to my eyes I need to get rates right to take the right position but as more time passes more data is suggesting we need to go up.

You're comparing eras were companies were built to operate with elevated and fluctuating rates to an era where companies were operating with zero rates.

So in the past a company would operate with a 10% rate for a few years, then steadily dropped to a 3% rate for a few years, then climbed up to 5% etc. The fluctuating rates were meant to be built into their business model. That's how you could get new S&PX highs even with rates rising.

For most of the 2010s companies operated with 0% rates. It was an era of cheap money and free money that gave us the Jan 2022 high. The conditions that led to those market highs just don't exist any more.

The best example from the past for comparison would would be 1994/95. Rates were pretty low at 3% and the SPX peaked. It then climbed to 6% in 6 months and the SPX didn't reach a new high until after 12 months. That's the closest thing that there has ever been to a "soft landing" and basically what they're trying to do now.

The best chance the SPX has of reaching a new high this year without the money printer is if DXY plummets. The weak $ could attract a lot of foreign money into US equities and pump them, otherwise how exactly do they get pumped?

[Thin Lizzy]

High rates and a flat market gets the public out of stocks and into bonds, leaving the former for insiders.

IMO, this is bullish for stocks.

[sculpture]

I just don't see a justification for ATHs for equities

[Mayday]

I’m only focusing on inflationary cycles because that is what I believed we were in the moment the globe shutdown. If I look at your 90s example it proves my point. Rates hit a first peak in 1995 and pullback slightly, S&P rallied 2.5x to the Dotcom and rates peak at Dotcom in 2000 before a major Selloff was seen.

80yrs of history in the chart below

Above the top line correlates with higher rates.

Higher rates correlates with higher DXY and higher oil. We have not yet trended above the top line for any reasonable period yet. PE ratio is 19 and we hit 45 in Dotcom and 120+ in GFC. Both Dotcom and GFC were created in rising rate environments, neither sold off before peak rates and both had higher oil prices than previous when at peaks.

13-31-55 were the time periods between sell off events in months. if we don’t sell off in November then it’s mid 2025. If we don’t sell off in mid 2025 then it’s mid 2027.

Dotcom ran like a mofo for 5yrs after the first peak rates was hit. Just so happens 55 gets us to 2027 which is 5yrs 👀 

After Dotcom we ran 7yrs on to create the GFC which had much higher oil prices. Most countries are phasing out combustion engines in 2035 which is 8yrs after 2027. Look at Dotcom to GFC….. 👀 yes, I am being utterly rerarded here but im just saying even that makes more sense than half the shit I see online.

When people are waiting up to 2.5yrs for a Toyota how can we go down on equities?

[Flexacon]

I’m only focusing on inflationary cycles because that is what I believed we were in the moment the globe shutdown. If I look at your 90s example it proves my point. Rates hit a first peak in 1995 and pullback slightly, S&P rallied 2.5x to the Dotcom and rates peak at Dotcom in 2000 before a major Selloff was seen.

When people are waiting up to 2.5yrs for a Toyota how can we go down on equities?

The 90s example was a "soft landing" so that would need us to assume we'll have a soft landing this time too. Also if there was a 6 month gap between rates peaking and a new high. Assuming rates keep rising to 5.75% and there is at least a 6 months gap to a new ATH, then that still means markets chop for the rest of the year.

If you look at what the market is doing now it's a joke. You have news headlines and data releases being traded by bots and algos (typically sending the markets lower) and then you have 0DTE trades (typically pumping markets) That's all the market is right now. It's no longer about cycles and processes from the past that at least had some merits and made some sense.

A 2.5 year wait for a Toyota, home swimming pool businesses making record profits etc also means they will just keep raising rates. I haven't said equities will go down, I've argued that markets are being propped up because of a lack of liquidity and that it will continue to be a chop fest. The longer that continues the more likely it becomes that something breaks, then we get pivot and then a crash. That's why I believe it's too early to be positioned for an upside recovery. It's either sideways then up, or sideways, crash and then up.

[Flexacon]

Prediction for the markets for the next couple of weeks and May. Bulls get trapped or maybe even flip bear. Fed meeting in May might even be hawkish adding to the bear sentiment. Peak bear mode is engaged by the markets.

0DTE options pile in at the bottom in early/mid May and launch everything skywards like one of Elons rocket, and just like his rocket it blows up and crashes back down to Earth in June.

Apple earnings soon.  Insiders sold recently.. markets could still get more bearish.. Buy backs could also be on the table.

I'll be watching closely for the bullish flip.

*U.S. Federal and state officials are assessing possible 'market manipulation' regarding banking shares - source
exclusive-many U.S. Regional banks have sound fundamentals, stable deposits, remain well-capitalize

US FEDERAL AND STATE OFFICIALS ARE ASSESSING POSSIBLE MARKET MANIPULATION REGARDING BANKING SHARES

Squeeze set up

[Flexacon]

NFP data and the squeeze spanked the recession bros today. Next up the pivot bros. They are set up for rate cuts in July. The only they get that if the market breaks, so either they know something or they are trapped.

Higher rates for longer and a range bound market or a crash.

[Mayday]

Dotcom repeat but it will be on the back of AI which would be a +250% rally 👀

[Flexacon]

Dotcom repeat but it will be on the back of AI which would be a +250% rally 👀

I'm on board with that, but only after more of the pump and dumps, free money era, unprofitable companies get killed off and money makes its way to more genuine innovative companies. That's still maybe 6 to 12 months away and only after a "soft landing" or crash. Although SVB failing was a huge step towards that.

Btw Vitalik sold recently and ETH foundation moved a bunch of ETH. If they're sell it's worth remembering they sold 5 out of the last 7 tops/local tops.

[Mayday]

I'm on board with that, but only after more of the pump and dumps, free money era, unprofitable companies get killed off and money makes its way to more genuine innovative companies. That's still maybe 6 to 12 months away and only after a "soft landing" or crash. Although SVB failing was a huge step towards that.

Btw Vitalik sold recently and ETH foundation moved a bunch of ETH. If they're sell it's worth remembering they sold 5 out of the last 7 tops/local tops.

Vitalik loves his tens of millions for runway lol 😆

This past week my feed has been filled with liquidations of longs on alt coins. Utter carnage. I had said runway to May for a peak which seems to be about right for now.

For a market bottom the trend was 13-33-55 months or thereabouts with 33 being most common. I like 55 as it fits with 1995 rate cycle, tech boom, liquidity cycle, move into GFC for peak oil in 2035.

job data isn’t pointing to a typical historical recession ie no hard landing. Typical is claims >300k and NFP negative. It takes 12-24mths from bottom to peak if going straight to a recession. Bottom was Sept 2022 but NFP is still rising which is inverse to what is required for a typical hurtful recession.

Went long on that rural ETF last week. +3% now and this is a proper long term position. They own agriculture equipment, land,  farming, maintenance etc. basically you get exposure to everything inflationary in farming which I liked.

Im eyeing our largest building materials provider. This is very near a bottom though but I think lumber has one more move down inline with demand so I’m waiting for another month or two.

Lithium miners still look on the way down. I think it’s going to be linked with consumer demand/Economic bottom   Thoughts?

I am also eyeing Cobalt miners. I’m using Cobalt as a second bottoming check against lithium so it gives me a bit clearer insight. Cobalt gives a clearer view of a bottom still being a short time away IMO whereas lithium looks a little muddy.

Finally, DXY still looks like a double bottom and it is nearing a weekly up signal. chart is the Dotcom boom overlayed with DXY showing the clear uptrend. i might short some silver miners in the coming weeks.

[Flexacon]

Vitalik loves his tens of millions for runway lol 😆

This past week my feed has been filled with liquidations of longs on alt coins. Utter carnage. I had said runway to May for a peak which seems to be about right for now.

For a market bottom the trend was 13-33-55 months or thereabouts with 33 being most common. I like 55 as it fits with 1995 rate cycle, tech boom, liquidity cycle, move into GFC for peak oil in 2035.

job data isn’t pointing to a typical historical recession ie no hard landing. Typical is claims >300k and NFP negative. It takes 12-24mths from bottom to peak if going straight to a recession. Bottom was Sept 2022 but NFP is still rising which is inverse to what is required for a typical hurtful recession.

Went long on that rural ETF last week. +3% now and this is a proper long term position. They own agriculture equipment, land,  farming, maintenance etc. basically you get exposure to everything inflationary in farming which I liked.

Im eyeing our largest building materials provider. This is very near a bottom though but I think lumber has one more move down inline with demand so I’m waiting for another month or two.

Lithium miners still look on the way down. I think it’s going to be linked with consumer demand/Economic bottom   Thoughts?

I am also eyeing Cobalt miners. I’m using Cobalt as a second bottoming check against lithium so it gives me a bit clearer insight. Cobalt gives a clearer view of a bottom still being a short time away IMO whereas lithium looks a little muddy.

Finally, DXY still looks like a double bottom and it is nearing a weekly up signal. chart is the Dotcom boom overlayed with DXY showing the clear uptrend. i might short some silver miners in the coming weeks.

Bitcoin (and Eth) dominance is doing its thing and washing out most alts. I'm hoping the carnage continues for the rest of the year and alts drop at least 95% from ATHs. Potential 10x plus gains will be back on the cards

I'm still favouring a recession and a not so soft landing before we get another generational bull market. A credit crunch is looking likely now and the yield curve has inverted. There is a lag between hikes and jobs, unemployment rises more significantly 12 to 18 months after the start of rate hikes. So mid to late 2023. Also around this time the FED should lay out their plans for future cuts. This causes the yield curve to rocket up. Curve up, unemployment up, plus credit crunch and we should have a recession and bumpy landing.

This chart cuts out a lot of noise and equalises things. It's tightening first and then if we see high unemployment it's a hard landing. No high unemployment then it's a soft landing.



Remember FED pivot/cuts is when everything nukes and we get a bottom like later. The pivot isn't the cause for the nuke, it's just an indicator of a broken market. In the most recent past this has mostly lined up around the cycle top, but there is no reason for it not to happen in a market that's already down (see 70s). Pivot and no nuke would be a soft landing.



With regards to metals I'm just watching copper. It typically pukes hard and early when there is demand destruction and is a good indicator for everything else puking. It's sitting on the cliff edge, but it's been there for while. Do your best TA on it and pray you time it (or other metals) right

FYI the best pure TA guys I know are bullish on gold and silver breakouts. The guys following liquidity who have rarely been wrong this past 6 months are bearish. Macro guys don't know. I'm 90% out of everything right now.

[SOMEPARTS]

Nice looking chart. The question is how much demand will these new and improved prices destroy before they have to start talking about UBI?

[Mayday]

Bitcoin (and Eth) dominance is doing its thing and washing out most alts. I'm hoping the carnage continues for the rest of the year and alts drop at least 95% from ATHs. Potential 10x plus gains will be back on the cards

I'm still favouring a recession and a not so soft landing before we get another generational bull market. A credit crunch is looking likely now and the yield curve has inverted. There is a lag between hikes and jobs, unemployment rises more significantly 12 to 18 months after the start of rate hikes. So mid to late 2023. Also around this time the FED should lay out their plans for future cuts. This causes the yield curve to rocket up. Curve up, unemployment up, plus credit crunch and we should have a recession and bumpy landing.

This chart cuts out a lot of noise and equalises things. It's tightening first and then if we see high unemployment it's a hard landing. No high unemployment then it's a soft landing.



Remember FED pivot/cuts is when everything nukes and we get a bottom like later. The pivot isn't the cause for the nuke, it's just an indicator of a broken market. In the past this mostly happened to line up around the cycle top, but there is no reason for it not to happen in a market that's already down 20%. Pivot and no nuke would be a soft landing.



With regards to metals I'm just watching copper. It typically pukes hard and early when there is demand destruction and is a good indicator for everything else puking. It's sitting on the cliff edge, but it's been there for while. Do your best TA on it and pray you time it (or other metals) right

FYI the best pure TA guys I know are bullish on gold and silver breakouts. The guys following liquidity who have rarely been wrong this past 6 months are bearish. Macro guys don't know. I'm 90% out of everything right now.

That Fed pivot chart did the rounds but looking at what happens at peak rates is better. Last 40yrs 5/6 rate peaks lead to new ATH.

S&P performance after peak rates:
2019 +13% ATH
2007 +29% ATH
1995 +29% ATH
1984 +118% ATH
Late 1980 sold off 1mth prior to peak
Early 1980 +18% ATH

The above 40yr history suggests S&P targets before the sell off event are 5,400-5,600-6,200-10,500 if you use Fed rate history as your marker.

In the times the market sold off fully or in the middle of a selloff prior to peak rates:
1956 peak rate basically was the bottom
1966 peak rate was the market bottom
1969 7mth -20% with next 10mths -17%
1973 18mths -30% with next 3mths -20%


I have been quite chuffed at my +7.6% in 3 months using max 35% of my capital….. right up until yesterday when my neighbour told my wife she made 50k in one day because her shares went up 4%. Turns out she caught one for a 30x and has around 1.1M in her portfolio. Naturally I get a bit from my wife jokingly about my crap returns but I tell her sure you hear about the 30x but she didn’t tell you about the one that has lost 90% the last 4mths (I know what’s in her portfolio) 👀

If I used 100% of my capital for all the trades I have done I’d be up +30% already but I’m trying not to be a total degenerate. I actually hate this shit, honestly it’s such a waste of energy/stress lol.

[Mayday]

Nice looking chart. The question is how much demand will these new and improved prices destroy before they have to start talking about UBI?

Countries on variable mortgage rates = we feel rate impact on demand a lot and we see a lot of market decline.

US on fixed mortgage rates = 90% on fixed rates don’t feel any difference except when using new consumer credit = Americans have HUGE spending available vs rest of the world.

The US economy will perform better at higher rates vs rest of the world which is why the USD is king.

[Flexacon]

That Fed pivot chart did the rounds but looking at what happens at peak rates is better. Last 40yrs 5/6 rate peaks lead to new ATH.

S&P performance after peak rates:
2019 +13% ATH
2007 +29% ATH
1995 +29% ATH
1984 +118% ATH
Late 1980 sold off 1mth prior to peak
Early 1980 +18% ATH

The above 40yr history suggests S&P targets before the sell off event are 5,400-5,600-6,200-10,500 if you use Fed rate history as your marker.

In the times the market sold off fully or in the middle of a selloff prior to peak rates:
1956 peak rate basically was the bottom
1966 peak rate was the market bottom
1969 7mth -20% with next 10mths -17%
1973 18mths -30% with next 3mths -20%

That pivot chart is what I think has got a lot people expecting a new high basically for similar reason you've outlined, but just remember in those cycles the SPX for the most part was still going up as rates were increasing.

This time the SPX has mostly been going down as rates have increased, so it's a different set up to what led to those new ATH after peak rates. That's why I'm trying to look at other indicators. Just imagine positioning for a new ATH  and instead we drop another 25% or vice versa

I have been quite chuffed at my +7.6% in 3 months using max 35% of my capital….. right up until yesterday when my neighbour told my wife she made 50k in one day because her shares went up 4%. Turns out she caught one for a 30x and has around 1.1M in her portfolio. Naturally I get a bit from my wife jokingly about my crap returns but I tell her sure you hear about the 30x but she didn’t tell you about the one that has lost 90% the last 4mths (I know what’s in her portfolio) 👀

If I used 100% of my capital for all the trades I have done I’d be up +30% already but I’m trying not to be a total degenerate. I actually hate this shit, honestly it’s such a waste of energy/stress lol.

Yeah the market is a grind right now, but I'm kinda enjoying it. Not taking any overly bullish or bearish long term positioning. This is the kinda market though that's just gonna churn and wreck portfolios. Imagine another 6 month of this, even 12 or 18 months is a possibility. Your neighbour with the 1.1m portfolio will be lucky to be left with half that if she's playing around with that kinda leverage in these markets. Look at the SPX yesterday, the algos and 0dtes KO'ed everyone.

I'm only still in this market because I can manage my positions full time and the liquidity models I've been using are still firing hot. SPX dip mid May, followed by some bullishness month. Risk on assets (crypto) possibly reaching a low in mid June then bullish for 6 months. Model updates again later today though.

[Mayday]

That pivot chart is what I think has got a lot people expecting a new high basically for similar reason you've outlined, but just remember in those cycles the SPX for the most part was still going up as rates were increasing.

This time the SPX has mostly been going down as rates have increased, so it's a different set up to what led to those new ATH after peak rates. That's why I'm trying to look at other indicators. Just imagine positioning for a new ATH  and instead we drop another 25% or vice versa

I'm only still in this market because I can manage my positions full time and the liquidity models I've been using are still firing hot. SPX dip mid May, followed by some bullishness month. Risk on assets (crypto) possibly reaching a low in mid June then bullish for 6 months. Model updates again later today though.

I’d be wary of it’s different this time. It looks the same as history to my brain and I expect the same behaviour as history (ie S&P new highs, DXY new highs, oil new highs). The consensus of the 98% remains overly bearish so be wary of siding with the Uber driver. We are +20% from lows and the crash talkers cheers when it’s -1% claiming victory, bragging they are going to buy the generational lows 👀


For something a little different, it will be interesting how the M2 behaves, especially in next month’s update. If we hold here 98% are going to be very, very wrong and you will see capital sucked right back into the US and the USD will return as the wrecking ball.

[Flexacon]

I’d be wary of it’s different this time. It looks the same as history to my brain and I expect the same behaviour as history (ie S&P new highs, DXY new highs, oil new highs). The consensus of the 98% remains overly bearish so be wary of siding with the Uber driver. We are +20% from lows and the crash talkers cheers when it’s -1% claiming victory, bragging they are going to buy the generational lows 👀


For something a little different, it will be interesting how the M2 behaves, especially in next month’s update. If we hold here 98% are going to be very, very wrong and you will see capital sucked right back into the US and the USD will return as the wrecking ball.

It's an easy case to make why "it’s different this time" (although I don't think it's "different" just taking a different path) and that's because the FED  fucked up.

They should have started raising rates 12 to 18 months before the actually started raising them, and they should have been raising them into the rising market. If they started raising rates in early 2021 at 25 bps and maybe a couple of 50bps then that would have got the job done and everything would have looked like the previous cycles. But as I said the FED fucked up and raised rates too late in the cycle. They were basically playing catch up and the 75bps raises x4 in a falling market was truly desperate stuff from them.

That's also why I also started saying I would be looking at different indicators rather than FED pivot/cuts. Can't expect cuts to coincide with the market crashing  like previous cycles because the process to get there has been different this time.

Anyway the indicators I was looking at (copper, oil, unemployment in US, EU data) have me convinced that the second half of this year will end up being a recognised recession. Won't be no new highs in a recession, but still wont get overly bearish (have positioning for a black swan crash in equities and higher DXY) as I think it's a sideways market all the way into 2024 with an SPX low of around 3800 in late Q1/early Q2 2024.

Longed DXY back in April at the bottom. Obviously wishing I went in bigger, but it's one of the few plays I'm confident of holding into 2024. LMAO at dollar destruction and the BRICS FUD

[Mayday]

Our difference lies in that I believe the Fed moves exist because they are needed.

It’s super easy to create stability but stability = economic death.

The waves are what provides opportunity and incentive.

if they raised rates earlier and harder it would have stopped inflation. So you up rates later to allow inflation to increase to a level where you can get rates higher in order to create a wave in the opposite direction. Now there is a down cycle which creates opportunity for govt fiscal spending.

We both agree November is a target period for the next selloff bottom (if we get it). If you believe the Fed is doing it on purpose it makes forward looking much easier. For anyone to believe it’s all one big mistake it would be a huge coincidence that those mistakes happen to sol e the biggest problems.

[Thin Lizzy]

For all the talk, the market has gone exactly nowhere in the past year: