Author Topic: Federal Reserve - 0.25% rate rise today 03-22-22 from the Fed (Read 21593 times)

Our difference lies in that I believe the Fed moves exist because they are needed.

It’s super easy to create stability but stability = economic death.

The waves are what provides opportunity and incentive.

if they raised rates earlier and harder it would have stopped inflation. So you up rates later to allow inflation to increase to a level where you can get rates higher in order to create a wave in the opposite direction. Now there is a down cycle which creates opportunity for govt fiscal spending.

We both agree November is a target period for the next selloff bottom (if we get it). If you believe the Fed is doing it on purpose it makes forward looking much easier. For anyone to believe it’s all one big mistake it would be a huge coincidence that those mistakes happen to sol e the biggest problems.

I could get on board with the idea that this was all some master plan from the FED, but when they've been presented with an opportunity to speed the process up they chose to prop up the market instead.

The quickest way out of their problems would have been to let the markets crash in October 22 or March 23. Instead of just ripping off the band aid, they keep adding more and make things even more difficult for themselves.

I get more the vibes that they know they fucked up and are now going to go for a soft landing hail mary to try and save face.

Quote from: sculpture on May 17, 2023, 01:53:20 PM

The Fed really showed their hand when they shit their pants in March 2021 and went into the junk bond market

Interesting that you mention junk bonds. They are falling and the SPX is rallying. Very similar to the move in mid Feb which ended in an SPX dump.

Good place to build a short position. Upside SPX gap was close to filling yesterday thanks to a 0DTEs push. Now would be a good time to try fill it and then push to fill the downside gap. Gap also sits near max pain and Opex just happens to be around the corner. 4050 is sticking out like a sore thumb

More Jobs data out today so any recession fears from that will be the perfect narrative to send the SPX down.
*More people working could drop it too due to the increasing possibility of another FED rate hike.

Flexacon · « **Reply #105 on:** June 10, 2023, 06:24:05 PM »

Quote from: Mayday on April 28, 2023, 05:24:27 AM

If history repeats, if rates go up DXY has not seen a peak nor has oil.

Metals are dropping because of the huge FOMO. Down here the miners are overheated like crazy. Maybe gut neeay-June to play out and see where they land.

Biden says no recession. We had a recession in 2022 and everybody forgot. Probably the same in 2023?

The whole debt ceiling drama and proceeding TGA refill and debt issuance has most of macro twitter talking about liquidity being sucked out of the market, so bearish. Equities however are looking bullish and a rate skip is being favoured.

I've actually got net liquidity increasing initially, so taking short/mid term bullish positioning from next week (most of it post rate skip confirmation) with a end of Q2 short scalper before adding more long positioning.

Depending on how long net liquidity is favourable, history may well be repeating like you said. DXY higher, although struggling to see how oil will peak. Recession likely in 2024, but no one will see it coming as markets (not economy) are are stong as they're gonna be full bull.

SOMEPARTS · « **Reply #106 on:** June 10, 2023, 07:26:20 PM »

Market has to go up as it is priced in dollars and value of dollars still dropping from inflation. The other metrics don't matter at the moment, just going up until it doesn't. When dollars get scarce things will get ugly.

Mayday · « **Reply #107 on:** June 10, 2023, 11:53:42 PM »

FWIW the 2 companies I work for switched from revenue focus to profit and cost saving.

It’s my preference anyway as I’m geared to build efficiency.

I think people will be caught off guard just how quickly we can become fucking profitable if the current people are the decision makers. Also the earnings drop isn’t really that bad given how much we can move the needle on margin.

Anyhoo, for now we just wait and see how much damage is done to the consumer wallet.

Mayday · « **Reply #108 on:** June 14, 2023, 11:06:18 PM »

Rate hold flat.

My 5.33% model is still in play with rates at 5.25%.

However, if my model is wrong and we are not at peak my revised model is:

August +0.25%
November +0.25%

What makes the revised model very interesting is the last rate rise in No ember falls bang on 13 which is part of the sequence I outlined.

This means an equity selloff of epic proportion is on the cards for November.

Flexacon · « **Reply #109 on:** June 15, 2023, 12:36:26 PM »

Quote from: Mayday on June 14, 2023, 11:06:18 PM

Rate hold flat.

My 5.33% model is still in play with rates at 5.25%.

However, if my model is wrong and we are not at peak my revised model is:

August +0.25%
November +0.25%

What makes the revised model very interesting is the last rate rise in No ember falls bang on 13 which is part of the sequence I outlined.

This means an equity selloff of epic proportion is on the cards for November.

I like the 5.75% always have.

This current skip/pause was possibly semi forced on them so Yellen can refill the TGA. It also gives them some breathing room and time to reassess things to make sure they don't over do it. Ultimately I think they'll do what they've said and that's 2 more 0.25% hikes.

My upside targets have already been hit for the markets. I'm out for now.

Flexacon · « **Reply #110 on:** June 16, 2023, 04:23:37 PM »

Liquidity also drying up next week and technicals suggest a provisional top with a correction due. Sustained break below 4440 on ES and it's time to load the shorts. I've already started early.

Thin Lizzy · « **Reply #111 on:** June 16, 2023, 05:35:17 PM »

From a historical standpoint, the years following a crisis or panic, whether, real or manufactured, are usually very good as confidence is restored to the system. I suspect they know this at the Fed and they’ll take credit for preventing a recession that was not gonna happen anyway.

Matt · « **Reply #112 on:** June 16, 2023, 05:37:38 PM »

Quote from: Thin Lizzy on June 16, 2023, 05:35:17 PM

From a historical standpoint, the years following a crisis or panic, whether, real or manufactured, are usually very good as confidence is restored to the system. I suspect they know this at the Fed and they’ll take credit for preventing a recession that was not gonna happen anyway.

How can we keep staving off a recession forever?

Flexacon · « **Reply #113 on:** June 16, 2023, 05:59:43 PM »

Quote from: Thin Lizzy on June 16, 2023, 05:35:17 PM

From a historical standpoint, the years following a crisis or panic, whether, real or manufactured, are usually very good as confidence is restored to the system. I suspect they know this at the Fed and they’ll take credit for preventing a recession that was not gonna happen anyway.

There is a good chance this is true. As Mayday mentioned previously there has technically already been recession in 2022 if using the old system, so maybe it's done.

However a lot of the buffer like RRP that is being used to get through this current crises will be gone soon. If recession does hit in late 23 or 2024 then it will hit the markets hard and fast and with very little buffer to stop it falling, but that should mean any crash will be over pretty quickly. A crash wouldn't be the worst thing that can happen if markets are strong (higher) which is the direction they look to be heading now.

If it happens almost no one will be calling that recession ahead of time and historically that's also been the case with recessions.

Flexacon · « **Reply #114 on:** June 28, 2023, 08:33:48 PM »

Quote from: Mayday on June 20, 2023, 11:15:01 PM

+25% up from lows is a clear trend over time.Where it’s at currently supports my view for a bullish ATH more than anyone bearish or chopish. perhaps we chop for a month, who knows, but I’d say we might be closer to 4,800 in August than people think.

Quote from: Flexacon on June 21, 2023, 01:46:32 AM

If you're looking for a long position you should get a nice entry within the next few trading days, but yeah the run up looks like it still has some legs for July/Aug

I hope you got or are gonna get a long entry. Should test the 4450 SPX June high pretty soon, followed be a small pull back before blowing past it. Could be a decent size correction after that (which would be a last chance for a nice long entry) and then the bull run to the 4800 target you've been calling.

You don't wanna end up being right but not make any money on it!

ThisisOverload · « **Reply #115 on:** June 28, 2023, 09:00:41 PM »

Quote from: Flexacon on June 28, 2023, 08:33:48 PM

I hope you got or are gonna get a long entry. Should test the 4450 SPX June high pretty soon, followed be a small pull back before blowing past it. Could be a decent size correction after that (which would be a last chance for a nice long positioning) and then the bull run to the 4800 target you've been calling.

You don't wanna end up being right but not make any money on it!

You are quoting posts that don't exist.

Am i missing something or were they deleted?

Flexacon · « **Reply #116 on:** June 28, 2023, 09:06:26 PM »

Quote from: ThisisOverload on June 28, 2023, 09:00:41 PM

You are quoting posts that don't exist.

Am i missing something or were they deleted?

Posts were from a different thread (bitcoin) just more relevant to talk about it here

Mayday · « **Reply #117 on:** June 30, 2023, 05:50:45 AM »

Quote from: Flexacon on June 28, 2023, 08:33:48 PM

I hope you got or are gonna get a long entry. Should test the 4450 SPX June high pretty soon, followed be a small pull back before blowing past it. Could be a decent size correction after that (which would be a last chance for a nice long entry) and then the bull run to the 4800 target you've been calling.

You don't wanna end up being right but not make any money on it!

I don’t look at much anymore to be honest. I sound retarded.

A house in my estate sold for a record so it’s nice to be right on that one. I tried to explain to family how consumer inflation drives household saving and leads to higher property prices. Blank looks. I sound like a spastic.

sculpture · « **Reply #118 on:** June 30, 2023, 09:29:13 AM »

Who would have known a bbing board would be home to so many market experts

Flexacon · « **Reply #119 on:** June 30, 2023, 11:10:37 AM »

SPX might go higher Monday, but we might get another "Russian coup" attempt or something over weekend so I've taken some cash off the table to pay for my McDonald's supersize order.

Looking to deploy a short scalper next week, maybe on any Monday pop otherwise re-enter SPX longs at 4433 (might even hit that today)

Using US10Y as my signal. Below 3.8 then expecting a Monday pop (which I'll short scalp) Stay above 3.815 and more longs at 4433

Humble Narcissist · « **Reply #120 on:** July 01, 2023, 01:18:59 AM »

Quote from: sculpture on June 30, 2023, 09:29:13 AM

Who would have known a bbing board would be home to so many market experts

Warren Buffett lurks on here for advice.

Mayday · « **Reply #121 on:** July 04, 2023, 01:51:29 AM »

Rates held downunder. Scope for 1 more rise before year end which would be 4.45%. My model of 4.75% is pretty close, 1 rate hike off so that’s not too bad.

We are lagging so far behind everyone else. My assumption now is a hold with a few small increments over 1-2yrs. No cuts short term. Boa constrictor method.

If I said this to locals here I’d be laughed out of the room.

Gym Rat · « **Reply #122 on:** July 04, 2023, 03:04:01 AM »

Quote from: Mayday on July 04, 2023, 01:51:29 AM

Rates held downunder. Scope for 1 more rise before year end which would be 4.45%. My model of 4.75% is pretty close, 1 rate hike off so that’s not too bad.

We are lagging so far behind everyone else. My assumption now is a hold with a few small increments over 1-2yrs. No cuts short term. Boa constrictor method.

If I said this to locals here I’d be laughed out of the room.

Can the shitter balance a checkbook?
Can the shitter wipe his own greasy-grommet?
Can the shitter utter some adjectives or say a few syllables??

IroNat · « **Reply #123 on:** July 04, 2023, 03:52:21 AM »

Inversion curve:

2 year 4.94 - 10 year 3.86 = 1.08

https://www.multpl.com/2-year-treasury-rate

IroNat · « **Reply #124 on:** July 04, 2023, 03:53:42 AM »

Quote from: Gym Rat on July 04, 2023, 03:04:01 AM

Can the shitter balance a checkbook?
Can the shitter wipe his own greasy-grommet?
Can the shitter utter some adjectives or say a few syllables??

I recall George Bush #1 going into a supermarket and not knowing how to checkout.

These people have in some cases been coddled for their entire lives.

coddle
kŏd′l
transitive verb

To treat indulgently; baby. synonym: pamper.