Federal Reserve - 0.25% rate rise today 03-22-22 from the Fed

[IroNat]

Inflate the National Debt away.

[sculpture]

But destroy the dollar in the process

[Thin Lizzy]

But destroy the dollar in the process

Destroying the dollar is setting fire to their own house. They’re trying to print as much as they can without Hyperinflation.

[Mayday]

If this is the case and it was done on purpose then Jerome Powell is guilty of lying to the entire United States with his transitory spiele

And?

You vote a group in to run the country for you. You are not voting to have a say in how it is actually run.

But destroy the dollar in the process

The USD is a nuke to others. The BRICS group is a kill list.

[Mayday]

US unemployment came in at 3.8% and its euphoric bears yet again saying this is the beginning.

No, it’s not.

The Spastics continue to mislead. This is what happens when you only look at one piece of data and forget to look at others.

[delon]

Its easier to sound smart when you're a bear, anyone can list a cavalcade of impending doom markers just waiting to drop and appear quite the market sage to others online or real life

Bit jt's easier to make money over time when you're a boring uninterested bull eg. Just index the s&p and maybe the NASDAQ and couple of others, then some bonds, and almost guaranteed you will beat the bears given a decent enough time frame

Short term trading too volatile and too much bother, easier just to set and forget and concentrate on important stuff like how gifted phil really is and possible CBS shenanigans in 1980

[sculpture]

Its easier to sound smart when you're a bear, anyone can list a cavalcade of impending doom markers just waiting to drop and appear quite the market sage to others online or real life

Bit jt's easier to make money over time when you're a boring uninterested bull eg. Just index the s&p and maybe the NASDAQ and couple of others, then some bonds, and almost guaranteed you will beat the bears given a decent enough time frame

Short term trading too volatile and too much bother, easier just to set and forget and concentrate on important stuff like how gifted phil really is and possible CBS shenanigans in 1980

Schiff

Steve van metre

Spring to mind. Constant doom and gloom

[IroNat]

Perma-bears, perma-bulkers, etc.

[Mayday]

Its easier to sound smart when you're a bear, anyone can list a cavalcade of impending doom markers just waiting to drop and appear quite the market sage to others online or real life

Bit jt's easier to make money over time when you're a boring uninterested bull eg. Just index the s&p and maybe the NASDAQ and couple of others, then some bonds, and almost guaranteed you will beat the bears given a decent enough time frame

Short term trading too volatile and too much bother, easier just to set and forget and concentrate on important stuff like how gifted phil really is and possible CBS shenanigans in 1980

Yep.

The biggest bear trap right now is the frequently repeated ‘sideways for 10yrs’.

SPX might retest 4K after we get the last +02.5% rate hike 1/11 but then we get an equity ATH along with oil ATH and DXY ATH.

I am just waiting for this last rally leg and then I’m closing my silver miner positions as the USD will rip after this.

[Mayday]

The talking on GDP and property on social media and news is at Mong level right now.

Property price will not collapse. We’ve already had the pullback. It’s done.

The US switched to almost all property loans at 30yr fixed rates post GFC. We are now in an inflationary cycle which means rates go up for a decade or more. Those at 3% do not want to sell at 5%. Those at 3% REALLY don’t want to sell at 7%. Those at 3% are never ever going to sell at 12%.  AirBNB homes will go to long term rental market which is also dry as hell.

New build pipeline has slowed right down BUT it now takes 2-3 times longer to deliver which offsets up to a -66% drop in new build demand.

This is what creates the long term shortage. There is no run to the exits because fixed rates deter anybody from letting go of their favourable position. We are then left with an inflationary monetary environment which will lift wages and commodity prices whilst in a shortage which results in a huge property price boom.

Inflation is not entrenched yet which is why property was able to have such a large correction. When inflation is entrenched the shortages and wage inflation apply so much pressure property has it any sell off and keeps rising. The -20% we had makes me hope we are in the ‘priming’ phase which means we have not yet started to true property bullrun.

[Humble Narcissist]

Inflate the National Debt away.

I think this is actually the long term plan.

[Flexacon]

Yep.

The biggest bear trap right now is the frequently repeated ‘sideways for 10yrs’.

SPX might retest 4K after we get the last +02.5% rate hike 1/11 but then we get an equity ATH along with oil ATH and DXY ATH.

I am just waiting for this last rally leg and then I’m closing my silver miner positions as the USD will rip after this.

EU recession will push DXY higher. I got it going to 109. Might need another catalyst after that.

SPX ATH on earnings and Santa Claus rally. Inflation should boost the bottom line for a lot of companies and that is narrative to send it.

Saudis have already sent oil up.

SPX due another correction though first, might start tomorrow or next week. My target is into the 42XXs and then rally to ATH. That then ends either with a recession scare or an actual recession.

BTC looks to be rallying on technicals, could go higher to 28k+, but will probably give it back and more by end of the year. Sub 20K. More importantly Alts will wash out another 50%. That's when I'm looking to enter.  Will you be buying or have you given up completely?

[obsidian]

EU recession will push DXY higher. I got it going to 109. Might need another catalyst after that.

SPX ATH on earnings and Santa Claus rally. Inflation should boost the bottom line for a lot of companies and that is narrative to send it.

Saudis have already sent oil up.

SPX due another correction though first, might start tomorrow or next week. My target is into the 42XXs and then rally to ATH. That then ends either with a recession scare or an actual recession.

BTC looks to be rallying on technicals, could go higher to 28k+, but will probably give it back and more by end of the year. Sub 20K. More importantly Alts will wash out another 50%. That's when I'm looking to enter.  Will you be buying or have you given up completely?

Or maybe you won't be buying if it never goes to those levels? I personally just see the dollar losing value and keep losing value. All this BS talk about the dollar being strong is a joke.

Because of tax implications I am currently completely turned off from trading, or selling. Whatever I have I am hodling and staking. Yeah, I'll have to pay taxes on the staking yield. I will probably sell some to take care of that. Taxes suck!

https://www.coingecko.com/research/publications/the-cost-of-iphone-bitcoin-ether

[Coach is Back!]

.

[Flexacon]

Or maybe you won't be buying if it never goes to those levels? I personally just see the dollar losing value and keep losing value. All this BS talk about the dollar being strong is a joke.

Because of tax implications I am currently completely turned off from trading, or selling. Whatever I have I am hodling and staking. Yeah, I'll have to pay taxes on the staking yield. I will probably sell some to take care of that. Taxes suck!

There is nothing better than the US dollar, nothing comes close. I've been saying that since peak FUD when DXY was at 100. And it's not because the $ is strong and amazing, it's because every other alternative is considerably worse.

Everything is pointing to an ALT washout. DXY climbing and evaporating liquidity is a death sentence for ALTs. I would say a 50% washout on ALTS from here is actually pretty conservative, especially if there is a US recession. Even it doesn't drop to those levels BTC dominance having a run up gives a great indicator for an entry with ALTs and that's looking likely to be in late Q4.

[obsidian]

.

Not even Trump can fix America's debt problems. It will have to reset. The debt is not going away.

Total US debt is approaching $200 trillion. There is nothing that can be done to fix that, without some major reset.

https://www.usdebtclock.org/

[obsidian]

There is nothing better than the US dollar, nothing comes close. I've been saying that since peak FUD when DXY was at 100. And it's not because the $ is strong and amazing, it's because every other alternative is considerably worse.

Everything is pointing to an ALT washout. DXY climbing and evaporating liquidity is a death sentence for ALTs. I would say a 50% washout on ALTS from here is actually pretty conservative, especially if there is a US recession. Even it doesn't drop to those levels BTC dominance having a run up gives a great indicator for an entry with ALTs and that's looking likely to be in late Q4.

Yeah, the dollar is the strongest in a pile of shit. Some might argue all the weak hands have already sold out in the ALT market. It did not drop as much as it did in the previous cycle.

BTC dominance has steadily declined. Why would BTC go back to 80% dominance as Saylor predicts?

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1269669/bitcoin-dominance-historical-development/

[Flexacon]

Yeah, the dollar is the strongest in a pile of shit. Some might argue all the weak hands have already sold out in the ALT market. It did not drop as much as it did in the previous cycle.

BTC dominance has steadily declined. Why would BTC go back to 80% dominance as Saylor predicts?

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1269669/bitcoin-dominance-historical-development/

I'm looking at an Altcoin price in terms of BTC not in terms of USD. I'm not expecting ALTS to reach their previous cycles lows, but they should drop lower priced in Btc and that can happen both if BTC drops lower or goes higher. That  type of washout doesn't actually need any more ALT selling, just needs no buying, or less buying than BTC.

Smaller moves in BTC dominance are more meaningful now than in previous cycles. That's because more people sit in stable coins now than last cycle, which eats into BTC dominance. ETH also isn't as volatile as it was in the past, so it won't be giving everything back like in the last cycle. That btc dominance pump from ETH won't be there this time.

BTC dominance at around 60% would be the equivalent of around 75% BTC dominance 4 years ago.

[Mayday]

Will you be buying or have you given up completely?

You’re back!

I don’t say much on crypto because the exit isn’t for a while yet. Yes I have one last chunk in waiting which is for a nuke scenario.

[Thin Lizzy]

Couple of long term double bottoms probably gonna break in the near future. I like to fade these. They’ll probably give way eventually but there’s typically a few fakes first.

[obsidian]

I'm looking at an Altcoin price in terms of BTC not in terms of USD. I'm not expecting ALTS to reach their previous cycles lows, but they should drop lower priced in Btc and that can happen both if BTC drops lower or goes higher. That  type of washout doesn't actually need any more ALT selling, just needs no buying, or less buying than BTC.

Smaller moves in BTC dominance are more meaningful now than in previous cycles. That's because more people sit in stable coins now than last cycle, which eats into BTC dominance. ETH also isn't as volatile as it was in the past, so it won't be giving everything back like in the last cycle. That btc dominance pump from ETH won't be there this time.

BTC dominance at around 60% would be the equivalent of around 75% BTC dominance 4 years ago.

I just checked my crypto portfolios and some of the alts I have already dropped 90% from ATH. But overall my portfolio dropped around 60-65% from ATH. The only reason it held a bit better is because of my ETH holdings and staking rewards.

I also don't see alts retracing back to previous lows. That would completely invalidate their use case because things are more expensive now. Going back to previous lows would actually be worse and indicate a complete decline in value. Retail money = dumb money. All they have to do is HODL and be patient.

[Flexacon]

I just checked my crypto portfolios and some of the alts I have already dropped 90% from ATH. But overall my portfolio dropped around 60-65% from ATH. The only reason it held a bit better is because of my ETH holdings and staking rewards.

I also don't see alts retracing back to previous lows. That would completely invalidate their use case because things are more expensive now. Going back to previous lows would actually be worse and indicate a complete decline in value. Retail money = dumb money. All they have to do is HODL and be patient.

I know the US has a wash sale rule, but I'm sure there must be some way to sell at a loss (and later rebuy) to offset tax from other areas

[Flexacon]

You’re back!

I don’t say much on crypto because the exit isn’t for a while yet. Yes I have one last chunk in waiting which is for a nuke scenario.

I was genuinely in the Dubai India region for business/holiday 

Interesting permabull chart I think you'll enjoy. It goes up for another decade and then sideways for 16-18 years.

[Mayday]

I was genuinely in the Dubai India region for business/holiday 

Interesting permabull chart I think you'll enjoy. It goes up for another decade and then sideways for 16-18 years.

LoL nice 😂

On face value that chart looks magic but it’s not correct as the economic productivity boom will occur in 2030 onwards.

the 3 photos I attached are S&P vs inflationary CPI pumps. I look for 3 pumps. Post 3 pumps it’s up only for a decade plus.

IMO follow the 40s for now. GDP is very nice right now, unemployment hasn’t cracked, consumers are adjusting to higher rates, equities are priced on shit earnings which they will outperform.

From the bottom of CPI equities should rally something like 2yrs before the next sell off begins. Doesn’t mean we won’t have a correction in Sep-Nov 2023 period.

We need to wait for the next CPI around August 2026 to see where rates are and what kind of equity sell off we get and how CPI comes down. In early 2029 you could be in a case of going all in on equities and riding it for 15yrs.
We need to wait for 2026 to occur

[Flexacon]

LoL nice 😂

On face value that chart looks magic but it’s not correct as the economic productivity boom will occur in 2030 onwards.

the 3 photos I attached are S&P vs inflationary CPI pumps. I look for 3 pumps. Post 3 pumps it’s up only for a decade plus.

IMO follow the 40s for now. GDP is very nice right now, unemployment hasn’t cracked, consumers are adjusting to higher rates, equities are priced on shit earnings which they will outperform.

From the bottom of CPI equities should rally something like 2yrs before the next sell off begins. Doesn’t mean we won’t have a correction in Sep-Nov 2023 period.

We need to wait for the next CPI around August 2026 to see where rates are and what kind of equity sell off we get and how CPI comes down. In early 2029 you could be in a case of going all in on equities and riding it for 15yrs.
We need to wait for 2026 to occur

I was initially thinking a similar timeline to you, but then I started thinking about AI and the productivity boom that would come with it.

However before any actual productivity boo  there will potentially be the wild Dot.com and crypto type speculation. I'm already hearing about some of the more degenerate funds telling their people to forget about crypto and start focusing at AI.

I was originally dismissive about the AI hype, but I'll be looking to ride that bubble for the next decade. Also crypto AI projects for the next run.