Are we in a recession?

[Humble Narcissist]

Business is going amazing. Absolutely killing it

Gay for pay?

[ChristopherA]

Gay for pay?

I wish!! LoL residential plumbing and heating

[LurkerNoMore]

Business is up all over the world.  I have been to 5 different countries this year so far and all of their economies are booming along so far. 

[tatoo]

no complaints w my own businesses.. other than food n fuel costs.. there is a difference though.

[Mayday]

no money left to afford , how’s that?

Because we will be kept in shortage for a decade which rips prices upwards of everything around you meaning you have less to spend on wants.

Eg A Toyota has a 200 day wait which is 4x the average and it comes with a +40% price increase.

The 2nd wave is the one which truly hits home. Fuel in US should be USD5.70/gallon in wave 2.

[Rambone]

Business is going amazing. Absolutely killing it

Soiled thongs never go out of style

[Dave D]

I daily deal with people who make in excess of low six figures and all they complain about is how expensive everything is.

[joswift]

The world is changing, were not in a recession but your going backwards, the pandemic and the government response to it not the actual pandemic, has in my opinion unleashed the greatest loss of productivity ever, people are now dumber and lazier and governments and unions still want us to pay them more, the global skill shortage is due to this in western countries, basically it can be summed up you need 20-30% more people to do what was done previously and as that has created a skill shortage then they want 20-30% more for doing less, its a double whammy on productivity,  if your in business dont hate the game just keep playing it out, charging it out, its economy wide, eventually recession will hit, signs are already there, its already an affordability crisis and governments are rushing to try and subsidise stuff which is just making things worse as usual.

This is just my opinion and whilst I believe it to be consistent across all industries, I work mainly in property development and construction, so my analysis is usually focused there where costs are out of control.  But work from home doesn't work, etc.

Government workers please dont reply, only those who contribute, your lack of productivity and contribution whilst an even greater non contribution post pandemic has always been fairly consistently bad and a drag on capitalism, and nothing will change there your opinions therefore aren't required in a conversation about productivity, the word doesn't exist in the public service marxist handbook. 

Every time a politicians says "due to Covid" I shout "Due to fucking lockdowns"

[Mayday]

I daily deal with people who make in excess of low six figures and all they complain about is how expensive everything is.

My experience is people with multiple properties are the loudest complainers of being poor.

[Irongrip400]

The world is changing, were not in a recession but your going backwards, the pandemic and the government response to it not the actual pandemic, has in my opinion unleashed the greatest loss of productivity ever, people are now dumber and lazier and governments and unions still want us to pay them more, the global skill shortage is due to this in western countries, basically it can be summed up you need 20-30% more people to do what was done previously and as that has created a skill shortage then they want 20-30% more for doing less, its a double whammy on productivity,  if your in business dont hate the game just keep playing it out, charging it out, its economy wide, eventually recession will hit, signs are already there, its already an affordability crisis and governments are rushing to try and subsidise stuff which is just making things worse as usual.

This is just my opinion and whilst I believe it to be consistent across all industries, I work mainly in property development and construction, so my analysis is usually focused there where costs are out of control.  But work from home doesn't work, etc.

Government workers please dont reply, only those who contribute, your lack of productivity and contribution whilst an even greater non contribution post pandemic has always been fairly consistently bad and a drag on capitalism, and nothing will change there your opinions therefore aren't required in a conversation about productivity, the word doesn't exist in the public service marxist handbook. 

A lot of truth being spit here.  Also, that video after this original post dude is spot on. I’m in the construction industry and the last few years while extremely busy, forced some nifty PM on mine or anyone in a similar position. You couldn’t raise rates fast enough to catch up with the increased wage, fuel and construction costs. It was wild for a bit, and still is, because of the reduction in labor force you speak of. I worry about when the other shoe is going to drop, but I’ve got contractual DOT work for he next three years, as well as other normal projects for at least six month. It seems like there’s no end in sight. Strange days indeed.

[tacobender]

Definitely strange days weird really

[honest]

A lot of truth being spit here.  Also, that video after this original post dude is spot on. I’m in the construction industry and the last few years while extremely busy, forced some nifty PM on mine or anyone in a similar position. You couldn’t raise rates fast enough to catch up with the increased wage, fuel and construction costs. It was wild for a bit, and still is, because of the reduction in labor force you speak of. I worry about when the other shoe is going to drop, but I’ve got contractual DOT work for he next three years, as well as other normal projects for at least six month. It seems like there’s no end in sight. Strange days indeed.

Material costs are settling down for now, but the manufacturing process costs are very exposed too energy mainly gas at manufacturing level, diesel at logistical and global policy there is going to continue to drive inflation through the false climate narrative, labour is the main issue currently, but it will swing back to energy as soon as labour stabilises, I agree with other commentators here, its here to stay, tough decade ahead.

[Mayday]

The US says no recession until 2027.

What sheltered view of the world you may have just remember there are industries booming like crazy right now. Sustainability is driving this change.

US 2030 target is zero coal plants and gas power -50% of where you are today. Australia is in El Niño and we knew about a year ago we have a 3yr drought ahead. Nothing unusual but these next 3yrs you will see news about how Australia is burning, no water, no food etc. The truth is we didn’t plant crops or cattle due to inflation but hey…. If the opportunity fits 😀

[tacobender]

The US says no recession until 2027.

What sheltered view of the world you may have just remember there are industries booming like crazy right now. Sustainability is driving this change.

US 2030 target is zero coal plants and gas power -50% of where you are today. Australia is in El Niño and we knew about a year ago we have a 3yr drought ahead. Nothing unusual but these next 3yrs you will see news about how Australia is burning, no water, no food etc. The truth is we didn’t plant crops or cattle due to inflation but hey…. If the opportunity fits 😀

good point

[Humble Narcissist]

I wish!! LoL residential plumbing and heating

I was wrong on the type of plumbing.

[Goliathon]

Inflation is a good thing, we need to deflate the power of boomers to restore purchasing power to people who actually  work.

A lot of this so called inflation  is because of things happening outside of north America.

We've rightfully told China to go suck it. In the short term its higher inflation in the long term their bankruptcy will reduce demand for commodities like oil.

High oil is good for american shale industry.

China getting a swift kick in the ass means american manufacturing will boom.

I hate biden but you guys gotta stop being so neurotic. You're embracing a feminine temperament. Men aren't suppose to be afraid of their own shadow.

[honest]

Inflation is a good thing, we need to deflate the power of boomers to restore purchasing power to people who actually  work.

A lot of this so called inflation  is because of things happening outside of north America.

We've rightfully told China to go suck it. In the short term its higher inflation in the long term their bankruptcy will reduce demand for commodities like oil.

High oil is good for american shale industry.

China getting a swift kick in the ass means american manufacturing will boom.

I hate biden but you guys gotta stop being so neurotic. You're embracing a feminine temperament. Men aren't suppose to be afraid of their own shadow.

Biden and his policies are the architect of inflation. Three trillion dollar green dream, that will do nothing to stop climate change as climate change is a natural occurrence, all it does is push up the price of everything at a time when your trying to bring industry and manufacturing back on shore, Trump called China out and started the trade withdrawal and was called racist by democrats for doing so, lets just stick to the facts. ,   

[ThisisOverload]

A lot of truth being spit here.  Also, that video after this original post dude is spot on. I’m in the construction industry and the last few years while extremely busy, forced some nifty PM on mine or anyone in a similar position. You couldn’t raise rates fast enough to catch up with the increased wage, fuel and construction costs. It was wild for a bit, and still is, because of the reduction in labor force you speak of. I worry about when the other shoe is going to drop, but I’ve got contractual DOT work for he next three years, as well as other normal projects for at least six month. It seems like there’s no end in sight. Strange days indeed.

Plenty of work in heavy civil construction and it isn't going away anytime soon.

The GC's i work with are paying guys an insane amount of money to keep them.

Engineering companies are paying top dollar just to retain decent people. I'm paying Project Managers with 10 years of experience 120-140k just to keep them from leaving.

It's almost impossible to find good people in the civil construction industry right now.

My GC's can't keep up with the work, but are doing quality installations, so we just add a few months to our construction schedules.
  
Crazy times.

[Mayday]

Huge Automotive strikes going on now over pay rises. The 70s had protests all through it for the same
Thing.

What makes it interesting is its try automotive sector. The one we are essentially phasing out lol 😂 I have cars going 3x price from 2020-2030. We are around +45% and now with protests you will see repair times increase, parts shortages, new car production delays which will only serve to send prices skywards. Cars Should be +100% price in 2027.

[honest]

Huge Automotive strikes going on now over pay rises. The 70s had protests all through it for the same
Thing.

What makes it interesting is its try automotive sector. The one we are essentially phasing out lol 😂 I have cars going 3x price from 2020-2030. We are around +45% and now with protests you will see repair times increase, parts shortages, new car production delays which will only serve to send prices skywards. Cars Should be +100% price in 2027.

everything will go the same way, not only are wages going up they are factoring in AI knowing they will be replaced, corporates will allow the wages in the knowledge that it will allow a greater margin once they can phase out human labour, AI is as essential to the future of capitalism as immigration as not only the west also China fail to reproduce themselves as a population, shrinking populations and higher percentages of older people living longer is going to underwrite future labour shortages globally we are in for a wild time going forward as much as I hate it Bigger Government and higher taxes they are coming. 

[tacobender]

At least your being honest

[Mayday]

everything will go the same way, not only are wages going up they are factoring in AI knowing they will be replaced, corporates will allow the wages in the knowledge that it will allow a greater margin once they can phase out human labour, AI is as essential to the future of capitalism as immigration as not only the west also China fail to reproduce themselves as a population, shrinking populations and higher percentages of older people living longer is going to underwrite future labour shortages globally we are in for a wild time going forward as much as I hate it Bigger Government and higher taxes they are coming.

Majority of business is not factoring in AI. Don’t get carried away.That is 2030+ until it’s even remotely usable on a reasonable scale.

AI is hyped the same as drive less cars. I had inside info back in 2015 and knew those were 15yrs+ away because we had data file issues. That’s why Tesla’s system went with cameras yet those still aren’t driverless everywhere……


Nothing is going to play out before 2030. All the AI related things will happen in 2030-2050.

[loco]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_recessions_in_the_United_States

[Coach is Back!]

It’s 2 successive negative GDP quarters.

People have become dumber and are currently making up their own meaning of recession.

Economy is very strong. Business earnings looking good. Profitability looking very nice heading into 2024.

Hate to disappoint but recession may not hit until 2027…..

I had to read that twice. Did you really say the economy is strong?

[Mayday]

I had to read that twice. Did you really say the economy is strong?

Yes.

Full employment. Highest wage growth in decades.

Record level equity in property in decades. Property Already bottomed and moving back up to ATH.

Q3 GDP 4.9% tracking near peak 2021 and highest in more than a decade.

Debt to GDP dropped 5% from peak in 2021.


People are creating their own meanings to the words recession and depression. You won’t see a recession until possibly 2027 which is 2 x consecutive quarters of negative growth. You won’t see a Depression at all which is a prolonged period of consistent low GDP.

Same thing with the USD where the masses here believe it’s collapsing. We are at the highest value DXY in 20yrs.

GDP, rates and inflation are all linked. You don’t monetise debt in a low inflation environment.