Property to +5% peak price next year

[Mayday]

My pandemic 2020 5yr model still looking on track.

Major bank downunder has called 2024 property expectation as +5% above peak price.

2nd inflationary wave is where we all eat shit pretty much. Yes, even me.

I have 2025 as +20% above 2022 peak.

I have the next probable property downturn in 2029 but I think it’s more likely to see growth out to 2050. Basically annihilation awaits anyone not in the property market.

[Theoak*]

Downturn in Melbourne property market is house goes from 1mill - 2mill then 2mill to 1.8. Unless next generation  of kids coming up has wealthy parents then it's doom and gloom for them. Most will rent, others will be at home into  their 30s.

[Humble Narcissist]

People are always preaching doom & gloom.

[IroNat]

People are always preaching doom & gloom.

Peeps love it.

[deadz]

I'm on permanent HOLD until after the election. No major purchases here. The economy is completely fucked at the moment. Anyone who would say otherwise is a moron!

[bhank]

The thing is if property values go up and you sell then whatever you are buying also cost more. If property values go down and you sell then what you then buy also cost less. You are never going to be able to make or lose real money in your primary residence it is simply inflation protection.

Of course if you buy or sell with leverage using a mortgage your potential return or loss can get multiplied but generally speaking the equity markets will offer a higher long term potential return to outpace inflation vs real estate.

[IroNat]

I'm on permanent HOLD until after the election. No major purchases here. The economy is completely fucked at the moment. Anyone who would say otherwise is a moron!

What about buying pork chops on sale?

[deadz]

What about buying pork chops on sale?

Not into pork. Pigs are filthy animals.

[Goliathon]

Downturn in Melbourne property market is house goes from 1mill - 2mill then 2mill to 1.8. Unless next generation  of kids coming up has wealthy parents then it's doom and gloom for them. Most will rent, others will be at home into  their 30s.

Renting in Canada was just fine until they quadrupled the immigration rate/let the chinese who don't rent their properties in.

There's nothing wrong with having a country of renters provided you have the choice of actually building.

Until Trudeau went nuts our rents were cheap. If some idiot wants to finance where I live go ahead.

Problem in Canada is both rent and houses are now expensive because trudeau was worried people would start to suffer for their own stupidity.

Trudeau used immigration as a way of an "invisible" bailout.

The government didn't spend money, but he radically increased the number of dollars chasing the same volume of housing.

It's fucking horrible though as we get the worst of all of the above.

Wages are going way way down relative to cost of rent. Consumption is plummeting as everyone is broke. People who saved are losing everything to immigration/inflation, plus we have "diversity" aka you can't order a fucking cheeseburger and actually get what you paid for.

These immigrants are fucking useless. Like they get $16 an hour and can't even tell the difference between orange fucking juice and orange crush.

Me and my wife order food all the time, and it's continually I can smell the delivery guy before he knocks(literally), have no idea what the fuck he's saying and something is always fucked up.

My wife might be pregnant, if she is I'm giving it until spring if this shit is still hitting the fan, I'm going to my families cabin and living there.

[GymnJuice]

Not into pork. Pigs are filthy animals.

Bacon tastes gooood. Pork chops taste gooood.

[oldtimer1]

Every country in history from Rome, Venezuela and going back to the Tang dynasty the first country to use paper money crashed when they printed money to pay for bills. In before someone says Rome used coins. They made coins with  a cheaper metal ratio that made the coins worthless. The US is electronically printing money to pay for massive spending.  Many major countries have threatened to stop backing their money with the US dollar if we don't straighten out our act. If that actually happens this country is going to spin into a major crash. The massive spending is leading to out of control inflation.

Add to that the war on oil here is making everything in our economy go south. We use to be a net exporter. We have more than enough oil here domestically if the Democrats would let them get it. The record permits are for land with no access. Our strategic reserve meant for use during war by our military is low.

The government likes to brag about the job numbers but never admits that they fudged the numbers using stats of the people going back to work after covid. GDP is garbage but they spin it's better than other countries they cherry pick. I only care about the US GDP.  Interest rates are rising and no one has confidence in the stock market.  Everyone is waiting for the market to crash.

Fuck Democrats.

[bhank]

Every country in history from Rome, Venezuela and going back to the Tang dynasty the first country to use paper money crashed when they printed money to pay for bills. In before someone says Rome used coins. They made coins with  a cheaper metal ratio that made the coins worthless. The US is electronically printing money to pay for massive spending.  Many major countries have threatened to stop backing their money with the US dollar if we don't straighten out our act. If that actually happens this country is going to spin into a major crash. The massive spending is leading to out of control inflation.

Add to that the war on oil here is making everything in our economy go south. We use to be a net exporter. We have more than enough oil here domestically if the Democrats would let them get it. The record permits are for land with no access. Our strategic reserve meant for use during war by our military is low.

The government likes to brag about the job numbers but never admits that they fudged the numbers using stats of the people going back to work after covid. GDP is garbage but they spin it's better than other countries they cherry pick. I only care about the US GDP.  Interest rates are rising and no one has confidence in the stock market.  Everyone is waiting for the market to crash.

Fuck Democrats.

The markets climb a wall of worry planning for Armageddon has never been a successful investment strategy.

[Goliathon]

Every country in history from Rome, Venezuela and going back to the Tang dynasty the first country to use paper money crashed when they printed money to pay for bills. In before someone says Rome used coins. They made coins with  a cheaper metal ratio that made the coins worthless. The US is electronically printing money to pay for massive spending.  Many major countries have threatened to stop backing their money with the US dollar if we don't straighten out our act. If that actually happens this country is going to spin into a major crash. The massive spending is leading to out of control inflation.

The American dollar isn't going anywhere.

While America sucks virtually the entire rest of the world is 10 times more fucked.

Add to that the war on oil here is making everything in our economy go south. We use to be a net exporter. We have more than enough oil here domestically if the Democrats would let them get it. The record permits are for land with no access. Our strategic reserve meant for use during war by our military is low.

Biden/Obama started the fracking craze, I have no idea what you're talking about.

The government likes to brag about the job numbers but never admits that they fudged the numbers using stats of the people going back to work after covid. GDP is garbage but they spin it's better than other countries they cherry pick. I only care about the US GDP.  Interest rates are rising and no one has confidence in the stock market.  Everyone is waiting for the market to crash.

Fuck Democrats.

America is going to shit, but most of the dirty deeds are at the state level.

Biden is kicking China's ass, it's short term inflation, but in the long term means a mega boom for American manufacturing. America is no longer getting screwed over by cheap foreign labor.

Biden is an absolute piece of shit, the liberals are scum, but Biden's only real focus is on the war with Russia.

It's dem's at the state level that are the problem.

 

[GymnJuice]

The thing is if property values go up and you sell then whatever you are buying also cost more. If property values go down and you sell then what you then buy also cost less. You are never going to be able to make or lose real money in your primary residence it is simply inflation protection.

Of course if you buy or sell with leverage using a mortgage your potential return or loss can get multiplied but generally speaking the equity markets will offer a higher long term potential return to outpace inflation vs real estate.

Matt lives off of his real estate holdings bro.

[Rusty Trombone]

Not into pork. Pigs are filthy animals.

Pigs are pretty clean animals that humans forcefully keep in filthy conditions. A very intelligent animal that is the most disgracefully tortured animal on the planet.

[Mayday]

Consumption is plummeting as everyone is broke.

These immigrants are fucking useless. Like they get $16 an hour and can't even tell the difference between orange fucking juice and orange crush.

Me and my wife order food all the time

My wife might be pregnant, if she is I'm giving it until spring if this shit is still hitting the fan, I'm going to my families cabin and living there.

Probably a consensus view of sorts.  This isn’t a dig at you btw I’m using it as an example of some other people I have seen on social media.

I recall one person suggesting $1,200/mth minimum to pay for food at work. Then complained they couldn’t afford rent.

People justify the takeaway food expense but when it comes to rent it’s the fault of immigrants.

The immigrants buy a house together. The immigrants will soon be complaining about locals who bought cafe food and holidays instead of a home, got so financially wrecked they demand handouts from the govt for rental assistance.

Nobody ponders they will become the next welfare bludgers but they all have one thing in common, it’s everybody else’s fault.

[Marty Champions]

Look for landslide victory democrat wins because of mehico for the next 100 years
Best to play soccer and blend in and get vaccinated

[IroNat]

Probably a consensus view of sorts.  This isn’t a dig at you btw I’m using it as an example of some other people I have seen on social media.

I recall one person suggesting $1,200/mth minimum to pay for food at work. Then complained they couldn’t afford rent.

People justify the takeaway food expense but when it comes to rent it’s the fault of immigrants.

The immigrants buy a house together. The immigrants will soon be complaining about locals who bought cafe food and holidays instead of a home, got so financially wrecked they demand handouts from the govt for rental assistance.

Nobody ponders they will become the next welfare bludgers but they all have one thing in common, it’s everybody else’s fault.

Well said.

[SOMEPARTS]

I'm on permanent HOLD until after the election. No major purchases here. The economy is completely fucked at the moment. Anyone who would say otherwise is a moron!

Can sit in cash at +5% right now. No reason to dabble.

Houses may go up. There is an inventory issue where most can't sell their home for X and then replace it for the same X.

I doubt total sales have ever grown in relation to these sort of rates over time. Have not seen the zero down 50 year mortgages yet though.

[Mayday]

Houses may go up. There is an inventory issue where most can't sell their home for X and then replace it for the same X.

I doubt total sales have ever grown in relation to these sort of rates over time. Have not seen the zero down 50 year mortgages yet though.

Yep.

The key driver of higher prices is shortages which entrenches itself in all forms of supply. Including sellers. If you sell today, you become tomorrow’s buyer or tomorrow’s renter meaning the net effect never changes.

In the US, fixed mortgage rates are a huge deterrent for anyone to sell as what awaits that seller is a mortgage with double the rate.

Here in Oz we have variable rates as the vast majority of loans. We look to climb up the property ladder, always wanting bigger and better. Our deterrent for sellers has become the belief if they sell they will be unable to buy a home as good as the one they are in.

both cases will lead to the same result which is a renovation boom. It’s cheaper to improve an existing home than to build a new one. This still leads to rising prices of existing homes and shortages on household products and commodities. Existing home prices eventually float up high enough to make a new build make sense. This is the cycle of new build —> renovation —> new build —> renovation.

We might see the leases become a thing here like Bali has. Albeit young people have too short a view and will take a 20yr land lease, spend 400k and not really ponder they walk away with zero. So even then humans will completely fuck up that market aswell lol

[funk51]

   

         clicked in expecting this.

[Humble Narcissist]

Look for landslide victory democrat wins because of mehico for the next 100 years
Best to play soccer and blend in and get vaccinated

If you get vaccinated you'll be dead so you won't have to worry about it.