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some facts
Inbound tourism
Forecast: VisitBritain forecasts 44.3 million inbound visits, a 4% increase over 2024.
Spending: International visitors are expected to spend £34.6 billion, a 6% increase over 2024.
Quarterly performance: The third quarter of 2025 is expected to be particularly strong, with 12.5 million visits, the highest quarterly figure since before the pandemic.
Domestic tourism
Spending: Domestic tourism spending is forecast to decline by 8% compared to the previous year, mainly due to an 8% drop in overnight trip spending and a 6% drop in day visit spending.
Overnight trips: Spending on overnight trips is expected to decrease by 5%.
Day visits: Spend on day visits is predicted to decrease by 21% compared to 2024, although volume is expected to increase.
Other key highlights
Economic contribution: Tourism is forecast to contribute £257 billion to the UK economy in 2025 and support 3.8 million jobs.
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Overview of UK Tourism Trends
From sources like The Telegraph, Daily Mail, and The Spectator, there is evidence that tourism to the UK—particularly in England and London—has experienced a slowdown or decline in key metrics since the Labour government’s election in July 2024. While overall visitor numbers have shown some recovery from pandemic lows, international spending and growth rates lag behind pre-2019 levels and global peers. This is explicitly attributed to Labour’s economic policies, which are criticized as anti-growth and burdensome on the sector. Additionally, rising crime rates in London are portrayed as a growing “threat” deterring visitors, with foreign governments issuing travel warnings and industry leaders warning of reputational damage.
Key Statistics on Tourism Decline
• UK-Wide: International visitor spending fell to £40.3 billion in 2024, a 5.3% drop from 2019 levels, despite the travel and tourism sector’s overall economic contribution rising modestly to £286 billion (up 3.9% from 2019). Current annual visitors stand at 41 million, well below the government’s 2030 target of 50 million. Forecasts for 2025 predict further constraints due to policy barriers.
• England and London Specifically: No granular 2025 figures are available yet, but London’s West End lost £640 million in potential sales in 2024 due to the absence of tax-free shopping (up from £400 million in 2023), diverting high-end shoppers to Paris and Milan. Visits to London’s top attractions are down compared to pre-pandemic peaks, with a “gloom” over the city contributing to the slide. Tourist spending in London dropped year-on-year in the first half of 2024, even as visitor numbers edged up slightly.
These trends contrast with robust global recovery: International tourism spending is projected to hit £1.57 trillion in 2025, surpassing 2019, while rivals like Spain and France outpace the UK.
Attribution to Recent Elected Officials (Labour Government)
Sources heavily blame Labour’s post-election policies for stifling tourism growth, framing them as “deliberate barriers” that treat the sector as a “revenue source” rather than an economic driver. Key criticisms include:
• Electronic Travel Authorisation (ETA): A new £10-16 fee for non-visa visitors (hiked 60% in 2024) is seen as a needless deterrent, especially for Europeans, slowing inbound travel just as recovery accelerated elsewhere.
• No VAT-Free Shopping: Scrapped under the prior Conservative government but not reinstated by Labour, costing London alone hundreds of millions annually in lost luxury sales.
• Tax Hikes and Budget Cuts: Increases in Air Passenger Duty, National Insurance, and National Minimum Wage are squeezing operators, while VisitBritain’s marketing budget was slashed over 40% (to £10.5 million), pulling ads from key markets like the US and Asia—potentially costing £4.4 billion in lost value by 2030. Critics argue Labour’s “pro-growth” manifesto has instead “evaporated business confidence.”
• Lack of Dedicated Leadership: Tourism falls under a junior minister (Chris Bryant) with a sprawling brief, leading to poor coordination on issues like Home Office visa rules.
Articles describe these as compounding post-Brexit and post-Covid challenges, with Labour accused of prioritizing fiscal raids over recovery.
Attribution to Threats (Crime and Unrest)
While the August 2024 riots are not directly tied to tourism declines in these sources (footfall dipped 1.9% nationally in affected areas like Manchester and Bristol, but data focuses on retail rather than visitors), broader “threats” from surging crime—especially in London—are highlighted as a major deterrent. Outlets portray this as a failure of Labour’s policing and urban policies:
• Crime Surge in London: Thefts from persons in Westminster jumped from 6 to over 20 per 1,000 people between 2021 and 2024; mobile phone snatchings hit 70,000+ in 2024 (up 33% from 2023), with Apple iPhones accounting for 88,000 reports. Overall crimes rose 2% year-on-year in 2024, including knife crime up over 50% in three years.
• Impact on Tourists: Industry executives, like PPHE Hotel Group CEO Boris Ziser, warn the “epidemic” is “scaring away tourists,” with aggressive street crime (e.g., muggings near landmarks like the National Portrait Gallery) eroding London’s appeal. European visitors are “deserting” due to perceived hostility and risks, outpaced by Americans. Foreign advisories from Australia, Canada, and others now routinely warn of phone thefts and assaults, with one Aussie noting “everyone knows somebody” affected.
• Reputational Damage: Sources claim this fosters a “no-go” vibe, with empty streets, homelessness, and violence hitting nightlife and attractions. One analysis calls London an “utter mess,” risking vigilante responses if unaddressed.
In summary, yes—sources substantiate a tourism downturn in the UK, England, and especially London, directly linking it to Labour’s “incompetent” policies and escalating crime threats under their tenure. Recovery is possible with policy reversals, but current trajectories suggest prolonged weakness.
