Israel strikes Iran - 06-12-25

[AbrahamG]

Fuck Israel. 

[GymnJuice]

Earlier I edited my post above to include this vid

We will see who is right, the doomsayers or the ones here who say this will be over in a couple of weeks and forgotten in 6 months. I fucking hope I'm 100% wrong and worried for no reason. I just don't get how one can be so optimistic; Trump tells Iranians the whole of Tehran should evacuate - all 10 million people! My reading tells me they are going to do an insane blitz, bombers refueling from US tankers and no one is safe in Tehran and elsewhere in Iran. So much for Israel being able to do this on their own.

Look at this insane text Trump reposted on Truth Social. Madness.

I just don’t see a doomsday scenario here for Americans. Even in the worst-case outcome. Say, a full-scale invasion and occupation like we saw in Afghanistan or Iraq. I think that would be a terrible mistake. I’d strongly oppose it. But as an American, living half a world away and not serving in the military, it likely wouldn’t affect my daily life in any tangible way. I’d see it as a waste of taxpayer money and a deeply flawed foreign policy decision. However, my life would remain unchanged, just like after those other wars. (No doubt it would devastate the average Iranian citizen like we did to the average Iraqi)

[Van_Bilderass]

I just don’t see a doomsday scenario here for Americans. Even in the worst-case outcome. Say, a full-scale invasion and occupation like we saw in Afghanistan or Iraq. I think that would be a terrible mistake. I’d strongly oppose it. But as an American, living half a world away and not serving in the military, it likely wouldn’t affect my daily life in any tangible way. I’d see it as a waste of taxpayer money and a deeply flawed foreign policy decision. However, my life would remain unchanged, just like after those other wars. (No doubt it would devastate the average Iranian citizen like we did to the average Iraqi)

What if gas spiked to for example 25 bucks a gallon, like some doomsayers are speculating? It's also coldhearted to not care at all about the carnage for ordinary Iranians. Obviously we can't care about everything in the world, but still. Like I've said it's "fun" to watch bombing on TV but what about if sacrifices have to be made, even relatively minor ones like gas price. If the Iranians decide to attack and kill scores of American troops in other countries around there, (if they do manage to fire missiles it appears there's little defense against it) it could/would be traumatic nationally. "Then we will annihilate them," sure but that doesn't bring back those troops. If this thing spirals out of control it will cause frictions and new factions fighting each other within American society. People like Tucker and Bannon say this war will alienate many within the MAGA movement because may voted for Trump to end foreign entanglements.

Like I said, I hope we aren't on a road to hell EVERYONE acknowledges the risk of this spreading into a regional war, if not world war.

Edit: so now I'm watching some analysts like Gilbert Doctorow and Douglas McGregor who say Israel only has Iron Dome missiles for another 7-10 days. Gilbert says this is why Russia isn't rushing in, because this isn't as existential for Iran as media will have you believe. Gilbert also says Trump is likely bluffing about America going in because even Trump, as stupid as he is, knows he will completely fuck himself if he does, the US assets in the region are totally exposed and Iran also has militias in other countries like Iraq that can attack US bases. So maybe Israel will shortly start talking about a ceasefire while declaring they already won by setting back the nuclear program by decades. We will see 

[Methyl m1ke]

What if gas spiked to for example 25 bucks a gallon, like some doomsayers are speculating? It's also coldhearted to not care at all about the carnage for ordinary Iranians. Obviously we can't care about everything in the world, but still. Like I've said it's "fun" to watch bombing on TV but what about if sacrifices have to be made, even relatively minor ones like gas price. If the Iranians decide to attack and kill scores of American troops in other countries around there, (if they do manage to fire missiles it appears there's little defense against it) it could/would be traumatic nationally. "Then we will annihilate them," sure but that doesn't bring back those troops. If this thing spirals out of control it will cause frictions and new factions fighting each other within American society. People like Tucker and Bannon say this war will alienate many within the MAGA movement because may voted for Trump to end foreign entanglements.

Like I said, I hope we aren't on a road to hell EVERYONE acknowledges the risk of this spreading into a regional war, if not world war.

Edit: so now I'm watching some analysts like Gilbert Doctorow and Douglas McGregor who say Israel only has Iron Dome missiles for another 7-10 days. Gilbert says this is why Russia isn't rushing in, because this isn't as existential for Iran as media will have you believe. Gilbert also says Trump is likely bluffing about America going in because even Trump, as stupid as he is, knows he will completely fuck himself if he does, the US assets in the region are totally exposed and Iran also has militias in other countries like Iraq that can attack US bases. So maybe Israel will shortly start talking about a ceasefire while declaring they already won by setting back the nuclear program by decades. We will see 

There will be no world war. The people of iran have suffered long enough. God has answered their prayers and has come to their aid. The psychotic noose of islam is being removed from their throats so that they may live a free people.

[Humble Narcissist]

There will be no world war. The people of iran have suffered long enough. God has answered their prayers and has come to their aid. The psychotic noose of islam is being removed from their throats so that they may live a free people.

Plus Russia has been greatly weakened in their war with Ukraine and China's economy would collapse. Nobody really wants to back Iran.

[GymnJuice]

What if gas spiked to for example 25 bucks a gallon, like some doomsayers are speculating? It's also coldhearted to not care at all about the carnage for ordinary Iranians. Obviously we can't care about everything in the world, but still. Like I've said it's "fun" to watch bombing on TV but what about if sacrifices have to be made, even relatively minor ones like gas price. If the Iranians decide to attack and kill scores of American troops in other countries around there, (if they do manage to fire missiles it appears there's little defense against it) it could/would be traumatic nationally. "Then we will annihilate them," sure but that doesn't bring back those troops. If this thing spirals out of control it will cause frictions and new factions fighting each other within American society. People like Tucker and Bannon say this war will alienate many within the MAGA movement because may voted for Trump to end foreign entanglements.

Like I said, I hope we aren't on a road to hell EVERYONE acknowledges the risk of this spreading into a regional war, if not world war.

Edit: so now I'm watching some analysts like Gilbert Doctorow and Douglas McGregor who say Israel only has Iron Dome missiles for another 7-10 days. Gilbert says this is why Russia isn't rushing in, because this isn't as existential for Iran as media will have you believe. Gilbert also says Trump is likely bluffing about America going in because even Trump, as stupid as he is, knows he will completely fuck himself if he does, the US assets in the region are totally exposed and Iran also has militias in other countries like Iraq that can attack US bases. So maybe Israel will shortly start talking about a ceasefire while declaring they already won by setting back the nuclear program by decades. We will see 

I don't think gas would go up that high. I don't remember it doing that in either Iraq war. Maybe it would go up to $4 or $5 a gallon at worst? Who knows.

I don’t think Iran will attack one of our bases in the Middle East. Not only out of concern for how we’d react, but also because it would push the Gulf countries even further against them. The Arabs and Persians aren’t exactly allies to begin with, and Iran has its own regional image to worry about. Someone on the political board mentioned a false flag event to pull the US into this, which is what I think would really happen. All those squawking war hawks in congress will become unbearably loud.

The thoughts on the Iron Dome make sense to me. We move ships and planes to that area to help shoot down Iranian missiles, probably because of the dome's limitations.

[Van_Bilderass]

There will be no world war. The people of iran have suffered long enough. God has answered their prayers and has come to their aid. The psychotic noose of islam is being removed from their throats so that they may live a free people.

This has to be satire, no one can actually think like this   

People in Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Libya feel so free. Israel's genocidal God Yahweh has liberated them, the people greet the colonizers with flowers and parades. Al-Qaeda and ISIS and now Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) never oppressed anyone.

Plus Russia has been greatly weakened in their war with Ukraine and China's economy would collapse. Nobody really wants to back Iran.

From the very start of the SMO in Ukraine it was repeatedly reported Russia will be broken economically, their weapon stocks have run out as well. Reality on the ground doesn't bear this out. Now Russia stands to benefit because many countries removed the air defenses and resources and moved them to the ME. Trump's diplomatic power in that conflict has evaporated, he failed utterly, now he's begging Putin to intervene in the Iran conflict (another interpretation says it was Putin who offered mediating help but Trump's ego can't accept it.) Some claim the sanctions just helped Russia to reorganize their economy to become self-sufficient, little outside trade needed. But maybe this is wrong and Russia will collapse any day now...

I don't think gas would go up that high. I don't remember it doing that in either Iraq war. Maybe it would go up to $4 or $5 a gallon at worst? Who knows.

I don’t think Iran will attack one of our bases in the Middle East. Not only out of concern for how we’d react, but also because it would push the Gulf countries even further against them. The Arabs and Persians aren’t exactly allies to begin with, and Iran has its own regional image to worry about. Someone on the political board mentioned a false flag event to pull the US into this, which is what I think would really happen. All those squawking war hawks in congress will become unbearably loud.

The thoughts on the Iron Dome make sense to me. We move ships and planes to that area to help shoot down Iranian missiles, probably because of the dome's limitations.

Yeah I don't claim to know how for example gas prices would/could be affected, just relaying some alarmist projections. Everyone does seem to worry about the Strait of Hormuz. The Ayatollah has said they will attack American assets if the US attacks. There is NO defense to hypersonic ballistic missiles, we see that in Israel right now. US THAAD systems haven't helped, nothing works. Like I said, several analysts claim to know Israel only has defensive missiles for another 2 weeks at most anyway, at current levels of bombing. See what Ted Postol said about Israel's missile defense capabilities.
No Iron Dome on other countries US bases either. We will see if Iran makes good on their promise, if they have the resolve and iron will...

Israel is known for false flag events, many such examples. Like with USS Liberty, Israel attacked with the Star of David sign covered up on their planes, hoping the US would blame Egypt and be drawn into Israel's aid.

The war hawks are incredibly loud, like they are with Russia. Lindsey Graham. Levin. All that money accepted from Jewish donors, Miriam Adelson surely demands something for the reported 600 million dollars. And read that Mike Huckabee lunatic message to Trump if you didn't yet. I'm sure it tickled Trump's ego just right, him basically being called a God-ordained messiah

[Van_Bilderass]

Guys on this thread are saying regime change isn't the goal. But now the Israelis are themselves confirming the focus has shifted and regime change is on the agenda. Who would have guessed

And Israel says Iran now crossed a red line when they hit a hospital, it's a "despicable war crime by the terrorist Iranian regime!" The GALL of these people, they make me sick. After bombing all the Gaza hospitals, all the schools and other institutions, after killing 55 thousand (at least) mostly defenseless women and children. Israel killed I think 60 children in Iran in just one strike. Has there ever been a more evil people in the history of the world? These people also approve of homosexual raping of unconvicted detainees. While at the same time spreading proven lies about beheaded babies and mass rape on October 7. All this is justified because their Yahweh told them they have the right. From the old testament to now these people have been genocidal. Modern terrorism was invented by Israel. By all standards the pager attack was terrorism. The gall to call others war criminals 

[joswift]

Guys on this thread are saying regime change isn't the goal. But now the Israelis are themselves confirming the focus has shifted and regime change is on the agenda. Who would have guessed

And Israel says Iran now crossed a red line when they hit a hospital, it's a "despicable war crime by the terrorist Iranian regime!" The GALL of these people, they make me sick. After bombing all the Gaza hospitals, all the schools and other institutions, after killing 55 thousand (at least) mostly defenseless women and children. Israel killed I think 60 children in Iran in just one strike. Has there ever been a more evil people in the history of the world? These people also approve of homosexual raping of unconvicted detainees. While at the same time spreading proven lies about beheaded babies and mass rape on October 7. All this is justified because their Yahweh told them they have the right. From the old testament to now these people have been genocidal. Modern terrorism was invented by Israel. By all standards the pager attack was terrorism. The gall to call others war criminals 

prime booking his flight and ordering a hamas flag online as we read.

[denarii]

US is already involved, no way IDF did all this themselves. So the decision for US airpower to get involved was made months ago. Only question is how Iran responds and whether US then responds with boots on the ground, in say south Lebanon or redeployment to Iraq.

[Methyl m1ke]

I don't think gas would go up that high. I don't remember it doing that in either Iraq war. Maybe it would go up to $4 or $5 a gallon at worst? Who knows.

I don’t think Iran will attack one of our bases in the Middle East. Not only out of concern for how we’d react, but also because it would push the Gulf countries even further against them. The Arabs and Persians aren’t exactly allies to begin with, and Iran has its own regional image to worry about. Someone on the political board mentioned a false flag event to pull the US into this, which is what I think would really happen. All those squawking war hawks in congress will become unbearably loud.

The thoughts on the Iron Dome make sense to me. We move ships and planes to that area to help shoot down Iranian missiles, probably because of the dome's limitations.

lol dude gas already costs that much here

[IroNat]

Iran is said to supply 1/6 of the world's oil supply.

I think the U.S. will bomb that nuke site inside the mountain with the B-2 bomber and the MOP bunker buster.

A good way to test if it works.

The world is insane.

[LurkerNoMore]

Fuck Israel.

"I'm gonna beat the fuck out of him, and suplex him, put him in the camel clutch, break his back, and fuck his ass and make him humble."  Iron Shiek

[obsidian]

Ending Iran's nuclear capabilities is the primary goal and that alone will bring stability back to the region.

Any regime change would be a bonus, but it's not a necessity.

Why would they need to kill everyone?

Btw you are doing a great impression of MattC when he would bug out over something 

I don't think nuclear is the issue. It's about controlling Iran's resources. Which is why Iraq was invaded. They knew Iraq never had any WMDs. They wanted to control the oil.

Motive for controlling Iran's oil? China is highly dependent on Iran's oil, and receives it at a discounted rate. If the US controls Iran's oil, China is cut of from a cheap energy source. The coming AI race will require a ton of energy, and this might be a long-term strategic move by Trump.

It's possible that Iran already moved their nuclear assets to other areas and that they are not even stored in the locations that the US think they are.

Iran also apparently built the facilities deep enough where bunker busters could not reach.

Here's an interesting video with many different opinions on all the agendas involved with the Iran conflict. None of us really know the real motives, only the strategic players know. Time will tell how this unfolds.

[obsidian]

Iran is said to supply 1/6 of the world's oil supply.

I think the U.S. will bomb that nuke site inside the mountain with the B-2 bomber and the MOP bunker buster.

A good way to test if it works.

The world is insane.

Good luck with that. Apparently the Iranians are as good with concrete construction as the Iraqis. They will have moved the strategic nuclear material somewhere else before the bombing, and build another facility in the blink of an eye.

And this assumes the bunker buster can even damage the existing underground facility.

[obsidian]

So apparently Israel has been trying to censor any footage of Iranian strikes. The Iron Dome and other defenses are running out of supplies, and soon Iran will be able to strike with impunity. Some video footage still escapes the censorship.

[Flexacon]

I've become obsessed with this topic I don't think I'm on the spectrum though, but have never been evaluated

By "everyone" I mean going after all the politicians and regime supporters. Trump saying Tehran needs to evacuate sounds ominous though; he's clearly saying those 10 million people are at risk of dying.

lol. Already been shown to be a bunch of BS

Guys on this thread are saying regime change isn't the goal. But now the Israelis are themselves confirming the focus has shifted and regime change is on the agenda. Who would have guessed

Regime change isn't the primary goal, but the US will put a squeeze on them for as long as possible hoping for a surrender or for them to be overthrown.

If it doesn't happen they'll cut some kinda deal

"Based on the fact that there's a substantial chance of negotiations that may or may not take place with Iran in the near future, I will make my decision whether or not to go within the next two weeks."

[BigRo]

This has to be satire, no one can actually think like this   

People in Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Libya feel so free. Israel's genocidal God Yahweh has liberated them, the people greet the colonizers with flowers and parades. Al-Qaeda and ISIS and now Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) never oppressed anyone.

From the very start of the SMO in Ukraine it was repeatedly reported Russia will be broken economically, their weapon stocks have run out as well. Reality on the ground doesn't bear this out. Now Russia stands to benefit because many countries removed the air defenses and resources and moved them to the ME. Trump's diplomatic power in that conflict has evaporated, he failed utterly, now he's begging Putin to intervene in the Iran conflict (another interpretation says it was Putin who offered mediating help but Trump's ego can't accept it.) Some claim the sanctions just helped Russia to reorganize their economy to become self-sufficient, little outside trade needed. But maybe this is wrong and Russia will collapse any day now...


Yeah I don't claim to know how for example gas prices would/could be affected, just relaying some alarmist projections. Everyone does seem to worry about the Strait of Hormuz. The Ayatollah has said they will attack American assets if the US attacks. There is NO defense to hypersonic ballistic missiles, we see that in Israel right now. US THAAD systems haven't helped, nothing works. Like I said, several analysts claim to know Israel only has defensive missiles for another 2 weeks at most anyway, at current levels of bombing. See what Ted Postol said about Israel's missile defense capabilities.
No Iron Dome on other countries US bases either. We will see if Iran makes good on their promise, if they have the resolve and iron will...

Israel is known for false flag events, many such examples. Like with USS Liberty, Israel attacked with the Star of David sign covered up on their planes, hoping the US would blame Egypt and be drawn into Israel's aid.

The war hawks are incredibly loud, like they are with Russia. Lindsey Graham. Levin. All that money accepted from Jewish donors, Miriam Adelson surely demands something for the reported 600 million dollars. And read that Mike Huckabee lunatic message to Trump if you didn't yet. I'm sure it tickled Trump's ego just right, him basically being called a God-ordained messiah

lol Russian bot detected.

[BigRo]

So apparently Israel has been trying to censor any footage of Iranian strikes. The Iron Dome and other defenses are running out of supplies, and soon Iran will be able to strike with impunity. Some video footage still escapes the censorship.

Iran is putting a ban on social media to prevent the world seeing what's happening there too. Actually full internet shutdown.

[Van_Bilderass]

lol Russian bot detected.

If you overlook the Russophilia, are you on Israel's side on this? Israel's or the Palestinian side? And regarding the Ukraine issue, you actually said with a straight face that NATO is in no way expansionist unlike Russia

I'm agnostic but if there is a righteous God I pray that there's a measure of justice for Israel's crimes.

Iran also apparently built the facilities deep enough where bunker busters could not reach.

Ted Postol goes over the many issues with the bunker busters. They have ways to deflect the impact so the missile turns sideways, and who says the bunkers are straight down from whatever entrance is on top, and so on. He thinks the attempt will fail unless the Iranians were stupid in building them.

Iran is putting a ban on social media to prevent the world seeing what's happening there too. Actually full internet shutdown.

Sure, but what about Israel? Come on man, Israel has banned any filming of crash sites, almost all journalists are banned, unless they are allowed in some very limited cases, there is a threat of jail time. Control of information happens by all sides in all wars. Both sides here downplay their damage and exaggerate the successes. Israel will downplay damage until they are losing then it's the usual Jewish playbook of being oppressed and being eternal victims, "look what these barbarian terrorists are doing, they are hitting hospitals, where CHILDREN sleep!" like Bibi does right now. Like this lunatic never bombed a hospital or outright targeted children!

lol. Already been shown to be a bunch of BS
Regime change isn't the primary goal, but the US will put a squeeze on them for as long as possible hoping for a surrender or for them to be overthrown.

If it doesn't happen they'll cut some kinda deal

"Based on the fact that there's a substantial chance of negotiations that may or may not take place with Iran in the near future, I will make my decision whether or not to go within the next two weeks."

Trump is getting cold feet, whatever he does here he is fucked, I don't see any way where he doesn't lose big.

Israel is running out of ammo for their missile defense. They will demand Trump intervene. If he does, there are huge risks. Regional war, US troops at huge risk (planes being repositioned in Qatar right now for example), turning the MAGA base against him and on and on.

We will revisit this in the future, we'll see if this is over in a few days, if it's an easy win, if it's all but forgotten in 6 months, as you predict Even Bibi is now saying this is a complicated situation but they have to do it, but you know better I'm sure.

[BigRo]

If you overlook the Russophilia, are you on Israel's side on this? Israel's or the Palestinian side? And regarding the Ukraine issue, you actually said with a straight face that NATO is in no way expansionist unlike Russia

I'm agnostic but if there is a righteous God I pray that there's a measure of justice for Israel's crimes.

Ted Postol goes over the many issues with the bunker busters. They have ways to deflect the impact so the missile turns sideways, and who says the bunkers are straight down from whatever entrance is on top, and so on. He thinks the attempt will fail unless the Iranians were stupid in building them.

Sure, but what about Israel? Come on man, Israel has banned any filming of crash sites, almost all journalists are banned, unless they are allowed in some very limited cases, there is a threat of jail time. Control of information happens by all sides in all wars. Both sides here downplay their damage and exaggerate the successes. Israel will downplay damage until they are losing then it's the usual Jewish playbook of being oppressed and being eternal victims, "look what these barbarian terrorists are doing, they are hitting hospitals, where CHILDREN sleep!" like Bibi does right now. Like this lunatic never bombed a hospital or outright targeted children!

I am not with Israel, nor Iran. Russia warned today for the US not to get involved. The thing is a powder keg there now. Ukraine was not close to joining Nato. All those former soviet countries wanted in to Nato it was not something pushed on them, unlike Russia's full scale war with Ukraine. Ukraine does not want to be a second class citizen in Russia's empire any longer.

[GymnJuice]

Iran is putting a ban on social media to prevent the world seeing what's happening there too. Actually full internet shutdown.

It is easy to call the internet shutdown an attempt at censorship and suppression of dissent towards the regime. And Iran clearly does censor. But in this case, I think it is actually about national defense. I'm sure WhatsApp and Facebook and whatever else is being used will have information scoured by AI and sent to Israel. In the US there is a big push to ban TikTok so China couldn't do that to us.

[Van_Bilderass]

I am not with Israel, nor Iran. Russia warned today for the US not to get involved. The thing is a powder keg there now. Ukraine was not close to joining Nato. All those former soviet countries wanted in to Nato it was not something pushed on them, unlike Russia's full scale war with Ukraine. Ukraine does not want to be a second class citizen in Russia's empire any longer.

Sure, they wanted in, but NATO has been in the business of encircling Russia for decades, you have to concede that. They are hostile to Russia and it's been no secret at all. Russia has wanted good relations with the US, Jeffrey Zachs said Russians used to beg him if he had contacts that could open up channels with the US but Biden refused to talk at all. Russia wanted in to NATO too but Putin was rebuked as you know. Trump has gone against the Deep State and to have good relations with them but he is opposed by everyone.

It is easy to call the internet shutdown an attempt at censorship and suppression of dissent towards the regime. And Iran clearly does censor. But in this case, I think it is actually about national defense. I'm sure WhatsApp and Facebook and whatever else is being used will have information scoured by AI and sent to Israel. In the US there is a big push to ban TikTok so China couldn't do that to us.

Iran has stupidly just now, like just a couple of days ago, demanded officials stop using cellphones as they are used to track and kill them. This dude Prof. Marandi of Iran says the authorities have begged him to stop using his cell due to safety issues for him but he wants to keep reporting.

[Flexacon]

We will revisit this in the future, we'll see if this is over in a few days, if it's an easy win, if it's all but forgotten in 6 months, as you predict Even Bibi is now saying this is a complicated situation but they have to do it, but you know better I'm sure.

It was someone else who said these things. I said this isn't a prelude to WWIII and it will be over soon. Ranking the most likely to least likely scenarios

Negotiations/Ceasefire
Iranian regime surrender
Iranian regime is overthrown
US boots on the ground and it's another Iraq.

We canrevist this (this has reminded me to revisit some other threads  )