Ari Fleischer
@AriFleischer
Are the Senate polls correct?
Let's start in Maine, where the last three times Susan Collins (R) was on the ballot, the polls were way off, always in favor of the D. In 2008, the final polls underestimated Collins' actual winning result by 8.4 points. In 2014, they underestimated Collins by 7.8 points and in 2020, by 2.6 points. Collins won by 23, 37 and 9 points in those three years, always better than the final polls said.
Same story in Michigan, but by smaller margins. Polls overestimed the D in the last three Senate races there. In 2024, final polls showed Slotkin (D) beating Rogers (R) by 2.3. She barely won, by 0.3 points. In 2020, polls showed Peters (D) winning by 5.4. He won by only 1.7 In 2018, polls showed Stabenow (D) winning by 8.3 She won by 6.4 points.
Texas overestimated the D two of the last three Senate races. In 2024, they underestimaed Cruz (R) by 4.1 points. In 2020 they underestimated Cornyn (R) by 3.1 points. In 2018, however, they understimated Beto (D) by 4.2. Cruz won but it that year but it was closer than the final polls projected.
In Kansas, there werent' a lot of polls, but in 2020, they underestimated Marshal (R) by 8.4 points. They said he'd win by 3.0 points. He won by 11.4
In Iowa in 2020, final polls showed Ernst (R) winning by 1.4 points. She won by 6.6 points.
Ohio was closer to accurate, but still, in two of the last three Senate races, the final polls overestimated the D. In 2024 they said Moreno (R) would win by 1.7 points. He won by 3.6 points. In 2022, they said Vance (R) would win by 8 points. He won by 6.5 points. In 2018 they said Brown (D) would win by 7.5 points. He won by 6.4 points.
The one place the polls consistently have overestimated the R is in NH, where it happened three times in the last three Senate races. In 2022, final polls showed Hassan (D) winning by 1.4 points. She won by 9.1 points. In 2020, they showed Shaheen (D) winning by 13. She won by 15.7 points. In 2016, polls showed Ayotte (R) winning by 1.5 points. She lost by 0.2
All these states have Senate races this November. As you look at the polls this year, remember that they have almost always in every battleground state exaggerated the lead the D has.
https://x.com/AriFleischer/status/2111184789923381270
