What are the odds of Nancy Guthrie still being alive?

[Darren Avey]

If she's held for long ill bet she demands a live stream for the olympia in September

[Lartinos]

I think she is just playing a prank on everyone.

[Dave D]

Like the majority of old people she was really dumb and out of touch. Not even an intercom? Why open the door for someone who looks like that?

Dumb and out of touch? She was old and feeble.
It’s likely her cognitive abilities are severely declining making her childlike. She  probably needed sometype of guardian.

[AbrahamG]

If she's held for long ill bet she demands a live stream for the olympia in September

Post of the day.  Well done Darrell. 

[LurkerNoMore]

He was White?

He has to be white.  That ski mask is a 500 thread count. 

[tatoo]

He has to be white.  That ski mask is a 500 thread count.

legit lol...

[Kwon]

Latest Update

[BayGBM]

The initial reward was $1500.  That amount struck me as weird and insulting; it’s like why even bother?
Then they raised it to $10,000.  More respectable but still seemed low.
The FBI is now offering a $100,000 reward.

Having to raise the reward amount twice makes this look amateurish and desperate to me.  If she needed her meds their absence will now begin to take a serious toll if it hasn’t already. It’s hard to picture the kidnapper(s) dutifully seeing to her feeding and bathroom breaks if they didn’t give a thought to her medications. I fear the worst.

[IroNat]

As far as odds, it would be odd if she was still alive.

Your comment about the low rewards offered shows how strange this whole thing is.
Very strange.

[BayGBM]

As far as odds, it would be odd if she was still alive.

Your comment about the low rewards offered shows how strange this whole thing is.
Very strange.

If I was a celebrity and my mother were kidnapped there would either be no reward or it would start at $100,000.  The lower amounts signal: just kill her. 

[LurkerNoMore]

The initial reward was $1500.  That amount struck me as weird and insulting; it’s like why even bother?
Then they raised it to $10,000.  More respectable but still seemed low.
The FBI is now offering a $100,000 reward.

Having to raise the reward amount twice makes this look amateurish and desperate to me.  If she needed her meds their absence will now begin to take a serious toll if it hasn’t already. It’s hard to picture the kidnapper(s) dutifully seeing to her feeding and bathroom breaks if they didn’t give a thought to her medications. I fear the worst.

I think the $1500 was when they were believing she just wandered away and was "lost".

But yeah, you are correct.

[SF1900]

Dumb and out of touch? She was old and feeble.
It’s likely her cognitive abilities are severely declining making her childlike. She  probably needed sometype of guardian.

It was reported that she was cognitively fine.

[Dave D]

It was reported that she was cognitively fine.

Oh.
Maybe she was dumb and out of touch then?

[Brenda Steunbeer]

Kidnappings are very difficult and problematic, something most criminals don't realise as they are seriously stupid.
Same here in Europe, the odds of getting rich by a succesful kidnapping are 0.001 %

Better try stealing from a drugdealer / smugglers, they usually have loads of cash. Sometimes many millions stacked at their houses

[Humble Narcissist]

This thing is starting to seem like a hoax.

[SF1900]

Reward increased to $102,500. Odd, to increase $2,500.

“As the investigation into Guthrie's abduction widens its scope, authorities have now increased the reward for public tips on the case to $102,500.”

[IroNat]

Reward increased to $102,500. Odd, to increase $2,500.

“As the investigation into Guthrie's abduction widens its scope, authorities have now increased the reward for public tips on the case to $102,500.”

$2,500 extra for shipping and handling.

[LurkerNoMore]

$2,500 extra for shipping and handling.

Some assembly required.

[BayGBM]

As of February 19, 2026, the reward for information regarding the disappearance of 84-year-old Nancy Guthrie in Arizona has surpassed $200,000. This total includes a $100,000 FBI reward and a $102,500 reward via 88-CRIME, which was boosted by a $100,000 donation.

Call me cynical but when is the last time you actually heard of a substantial reward being paid out?  The only one I can recall is when the State Department paid $30 million for information leading to the capture of Saddam Hussein's sons back in the early 2000s.

https://2001-2009.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2003/22961.htm
Secretary of State Colin L. Powell Approves $30 Million Reward Payment

[GymnJuice]

What are the odds she's working as a realtor in Kitty Hawk?