Social Security's 2027 cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) estimate is
getting a 'Trump bump' -- here's how much extra you might receive
big whoop-de-do! Cost-of-Living Adjustment (COLA): Social Security's 2027 COLA is estimated around 3%, giving retirees an average monthly increase of $62, influenced by inflation and recent geopolitical events.
Trump Bump Effect: Actions by Donald Trump, including tariffs and the Iran conflict, have caused higher prices, indirectly boosting Social Security payouts for a second consecutive year.
Long-Term Challenges: Despite short-term increases, decades of declining purchasing power remain, as the CPI-W index underestimates seniors’ spending on shelter and medical care, and rising Medicare premiums offset COLA gains.
Recent and Future COLA History:
2026: 2.8% (announced Oct 2025)
2025: 2.5%
2024: 3.2%
2023: 8.7%
2022: 5.9%
2021: 1.3%
2020: 1.6%
The Average Social Security COLA over the past seven years is 3.7%. Over this seven-year period, prices increased by an average of between 3.5 - 3.8%%, driven heavily by record inflation in 2021 and 2022. Up to now, this is okay. What will the cost-of-living this year? Will Trump's 3% be anywhere near to this.
The average SS COLA
AARPKey Historical Data:
Highest COLA: 14.3% in 1980.
No COLA (0.0%): Occurred in 2009, 2010, and 2015.
Average Rate: Over the last 20 years, the COLA has averaged roughly 2.6%.
Empowerhttps://www.ssa.gov/oact/cola/colaseries.html