If I Were America’s Secretary of State
By Anwaar Hussain
If I were America’s Secretary of State and wished to dissuade my President from attacking Iran, my arguments to him would be as follows. (the only aid I would need would be a grade-5 student’s atlas)
I would tell the President that we must not attack Iran because even a hyper power like us has certain limits. I would tell him that we must refrain from this next escapade because we are presently mired in Iraq where the sandal footed resistance fighters have blunted the edge of our technology and our casualties are mounting astronomically each day what with 5000 of our soldiers dead already, 30,000 wounded and 6000 deserted.
I would point out Iran to the President on an atlas and show him that Iran is a country almost four times that of Iraq in size and population and its political situation is fairly stable and its national strength, combat capability and cohesion among people are far superior to what we thought were Iraq’s–whom we therefore considered a mere walk over and where we are now stuck in the quick sand upto our knees and sinking deeper. I would also tell the President that in that Iraq now our Operation Iraqi Freedom has come to nothing but merely speeding at breakneck speeds from point A to point B in our heavily armored Humvees with the sole aim being that of surviving the drive.
I would argue that mere ‘shock and awe’ with cruise missiles and aerial bombing cannot bring about the desired results in Iran and we have to follow up with ground forces to ensure success—forces that we simply do not have. Another important factor I would highlight to the President would be that as a result of our Iraq war and policies towards the Muslim World, our armed forces recruitment is at its lowest and that of Al-Qaeda’s cadres at the highest at this point in time. The equation now stands fundamentally altered from the time when we invaded Iraq, I will tell the President.
I would argue that the use of nuclear weapons, however low yield, would amount to lowering the nuclear threshold and that we are neither the only country nor the only crazies in the world possessing nuclear weapons. Five nuclear states are ringing Iran on all sides.
I would say that our policies are pushing historic enemies into each other’s embrace and an ominous Chen-Ivan alliance has already formed against us who perceive their national interests as competing with ours for some time now. We have made them swallow their pride once too many times by our Iraq jaunt and there are no guarantees that they will continue with the routine. I would also remind the President that their protégés, India and Pakistan, arch rivals once but now warming to each other, too can take a cue from their benefactors and form an alliance with their patrons against us; it’s their backwater after all. Between the four of them, they can field over four million first class fighting troops and nuclear weapons to boot.
I will remind the President that in the event of our war with Iran we will see no allies following except Israel. Even Britain has already shown an intent to abstain from our future war parties. I will dig up my archives and present to the President the USS Liberty file, other concrete proofs of Israel’s unashamed espionage against us since then and many more archived secrets of Israel’s infidelity to show that this one ally we simply cannot trust.
I will, with the help of the same atlas, point out the position of the Strait of Hormuz to the President and explain that through this narrow passage a huge percentage of crude oil flows to every corner of the world. And if I can hold his attention long enough, I will reveal to him with what relative ease can the Iranians block this vital choke point bringing to an abrupt end the supply of life blood to so many of the world’s economies. That due to the ensuing economic mess, those world powers are sure not to take kindly to our starting such a war. In fact the impact on oil markets and global economy will be so fatal that even our bosom buddies like Japan and South Korea will develop instant dislike for our venture.
I will state to the President that the United States has already misspent the international sympathy and goodwill it earned on 9/11 and the images of the crumbling World Trade Center have now been replaced in the world’s mind by images of horrific explosions in Baghdad and hideous images of dogs snatching bites out of dead Iraqis in cities like Fallujah. I would then confide my educated guess in the President that the US will find itself the most isolated and vilified country in the world as a result of our Iran war. I will explain to him that with the chance of Chinese and Russian nukes raining down on New York and Los Angeles, and our internal political capital already exhausted as indicated by so many recent polls, even our own citizens are likely to send us to Camp X-Ray on the first available flight.
I will say to the President that with attacking Iran, after Grenada, Panama, Afghanistan and Iraq, we will finally come across as an international bully too cowardly to pick on anyone our own size, the dramatization and gloating of our main stream media, that has become particularly distasteful to the outside world, not withstanding.
I would argue that it is not wise to deliberately alienate 1.3 billion Muslims and act as lackey for the miniscule Zionists who are the only ones to benefit from our Iran misadventure while we Americans will foot the bill and take the brunt of Muslims’ wrath.
After telling all this to the President, I would then give him my solution.
I would tell the President, continuing with the help of the same atlas, that Iran is a resource rich country situated at the crossroads of the Middle East and Central Asia and is strategic terrain absolutely vital to our interests. Oil, Islam, and nuclear ambitions of that country only underscore Iran’s importance in the international calculus not undermine it.
I would tell the President that till now, our moves towards Iran have been steeped in the negative. The ‘axis of evil’ rhetoric may have generated some nice sound bites, but that is about all. Our essential security and economic interests are tied to the region’s vast energy resources. Our approach to Iran will impact the overall legitimacy and success of our larger global policies. Stabilization in Iraq and Afghanistan, our other crucial interests, can also be helped or hindered by Iran, I will clarify.
I will tell the President that because we have authored a new global order; our actions are now closely watched by all nations. Our world image having already taken a severe mauling due to our Iraq misadventure, our treatment of Iran now will influence not just the Islamic but the entire world’s view of the “American World Order.” Our moves toward Iran should, therefore, truly help project the ideals of human rights, peaceful interaction and tolerance in the region. Most nations now think America as too heavily inclined toward military power. They fear our Iran policy has been shaped to go the route of forced regime change. Use of force, therefore, would generate a tidal wave of negative global passion carrying heavy political costs for us.
I would remind the President that due to our continuous meddling in its affairs, the Middle East has now become a throbbing mass of concurrent crises. Yet another crisis in Iran is sure to throw the region into utter chaos. Caution is thus needed because our actions will have tremendous ramifications. I would tell the President that we need to tread guardedly in a region surrounded by close to half dozen nuclear powers, and whose economic interests we have already rough shod more than once, that are able to throw in millions of armed men into a regional conflict–not to mention the likelihood of hundreds of thousands of Taliban types who will come screaming banshee-like down the surrounding mountains to take revenge on our unfortunate troops bogged down in Iran.
I would tell the President that we need not further marginalize our Western friends who have been in continuous dialogue with Iran. Use of force would rebut their efforts further, aggravating the hurt we have already caused them by not heeding their counsel on so many other international issues.
I would tell the President that with American troops in Iraq and Afghanistan, Iran fears a closing vise. It feels cornered and its nightmare is our military action against them staged from these countries. A desperate Iran can go to desperate lengths, I will tell the President. And that for nearly a century Iranian nationalism has struggled against dictators controlled by the dominant global power of the day, first Britain, and then us. They need a break to put their house in order and not have us breathing down their necks with our fangs always bared, I would say.
I would remind the President that we have a commonality of interest with Iran in that both countries need to maintain peace and security in the Persian Gulf region in order to ensure international access to the region’s oil wealth. The Iranian economy depends on oil sales for 80 percent of total export earnings and we, like so many others, are dependent on oil imports for our economic livelihood. Furthermore, both states have a common interest in resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
I would, therefore, implore the President that a two-pronged approach is the best way to engage Iran and safeguard our own interests.
The first approach is based on diplomatic engagement, designed to normalize relations with Iran, reduce tensions in the explosive Persian Gulf region, and enlist Iranian support on a range of regional security issues. These issues should include peacekeeping in Iraq and Afghanistan, ensuring the free flow of oil in the Persian Gulf, and building international consensus to help resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
The second approach is based on economic engagement, designed to reward Iran for positive behavior by setting conditions for the lifting of economic sanctions, unfreezing Iranian assets in the U.S. and Europe, and re-reintegrating Iran into the global economic community.
I would state that the U.S. strategy in both approaches should be based on the recognition of the fact that both the U.S. and Iran have genuine national interests in the region—some congruent, some competing. Both countries should emphasize upon common interests as a basis for cooperating on regional issues and acknowledge competing interests as potential sources of conflict in the region and work towards containing these.
I would urge the President to offer to include Iran in peacekeeping and nation-building efforts in Iraq and Afghanistan and pledge to work with Iran and other Arab states in the Middle East toward a just settlement of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. I would argue that the more vested economic interests these states have in the stability of the region, the more they would work towards maintaining it. I would also ask the President to allow cultural exchanges, lift travel restrictions and permit Iranian students to once again enroll in American colleges and universities with a view to move away from the inherently negative policies of isolation and containment toward a more constructive policy of diplomatic, economic and social engagement as tools of American statecraft.
I would remind the President that every country in the world, however weak or impoverished, has a sovereign honor and does not wish to be intimidated by international bullies. Mutual respect, therefore, must form the basis of our further dialogue with the Iranians, as with all other nations. We must provide assurances that we will respect Iran’s territorial sovereignty and pledge to resolve conflicts through diplomacy and dialogue rather than military force. We should accept Iran’s right to develop nuclear power and offer to work with Iran, Russia, the EU and the IAEA to ensure that Iran’s nuclear program conforms to NPT protocols and is built in accordance with international safety standards.
I would tell all of the above to the President, resign immediately thereafter to preempt being fired from my job and proceed post haste to present my self to Commander Camp X-Ray for my further assignments during incarceration.
Good thing I am not the American Secretary of State.
Anwaar Hussain
