Jay is looking like he is on track..
the unknown factor here is of course, Ronnie.
The rumours are that he will be 300 pounds onstage.
If I recall, the last time he was 300 pounds onstage he looked like this:

if he shows up looking like this, jay can be in his all time best shape and it still won't be good enough...
If he shows up lighter, he might still win because he all know that Ronnie shows great muscle shape and detail at lighter bodyweights..
However, IF he shows up big but holding water, ala 2004 O., he might be in trouble..
that is my take, anyway.