Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!

[Flexacon]

I did not cash out of crypto again just like 2018 lol! So very low prices are preferable for me. Everyone had the timing of the peak wrong. People were forecasting Ethereum going to $10-20k and nobody foresaw the Ukraine invasion. This is one of the main drivers of the economic turmoil we are seeing now IMO, besides all the quantitative easing that occurred in 2020 / 2021.

I got out on the May 21 peak and I foresaw the Ukraine invasion. Even briefly mentioned it on here.

Still got my fingers burnt getting back in on 2 of my 3 main positions.

Bears are in full control of the price in a way I didn't think would be possible any more. It's still all one huge ponzi.

[Mayday]

Is there a rule that says this has to happen? Remember there's a lot of locked up staking in Ethereum, Cardano etc. This means people won't panic sell because they literally can't. That brings a lot of "diamond hands" to the alt-coin market. The cryptosphere is different now compared to 2018.

Locked Staking is absolutely a good thing when it comes to price stability. In a way it is like a parent who locks their children's savings in a piggy bank.

Depends what you believe.

Belief of price/value comes first then supply/demand takes effect. I have posted this here a few times because it’s the better way of understanding price psychology in order to forecast. 99% don’t think like this and call me a Redard.

On chain data shows lowering of supply on exchanges while at the same time price plummets. Nobody seems to get it, belief in price mix in market has shifted. Less coins today than November yet price is -50%. Kinda telling that on chain people really fucked up here and PlanB is a moron. What on chain is awesome for is short term movements to/from exchanges. You see the preload on exchanges for a dump and you see it back off for a pump.

Staking is good but I think it’s more to save yourself from your own weak hands rather than hold up the price. I have my HEX staked because I wanted it for 2024 and figured I’d get 15%/yr so why not.

[Coach is Back!]

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2022/06/bitcoin-crumbles-crypto-falls-another-sign-emerging-recession/

[Humble Narcissist]

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2022/06/bitcoin-crumbles-crypto-falls-another-sign-emerging-recession/

Real estate dropping as well.

[Mayday]

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2022/06/bitcoin-crumbles-crypto-falls-another-sign-emerging-recession/

In my thread I said Q2 2022 recession and we have stimmy bucks in Q4 2022 and go again in 2023.

Gurus were saying 2023 recession.

So far, my strategy wins. Q2 GDP data currently showing 0%, it doesn’t take much for June to dip and send it to a negative and then it’ll be an official recession.

Property price decline is a bear trap. It’ll go again in 2023 and catch people off guard. Particularly regional, it’ll launch to Mars all over again.

[obsidian]

I got out on the May 21 peak and I foresaw the Ukraine invasion. Even briefly mentioned it on here.

Still got my fingers burnt getting back in on 2 of my 3 main positions.

Bears are in full control of the price in a way I didn't think would be possible any more. It's still all one huge ponzi.

Care to find that post where you saw the Ukraine invasion - in 2021? I am not aware of anyone in crypto discussing a potential Ukraine invasion by Russia in 2021. Ethereum peaked at close to $4,900 in late 2021. Obviously had I known that was the peak we all thought I would have sold the ETH that was not staked. But everyone was expecting it to rip to $10,000, $14,000 or even higher, per the 2017 Bitcoin bull run.

I am not saying the Ukraine invasion is the only reason for the drop. Ethereum even ripped back up to over $3,500 on April 3 / 4 of this year. Kind of a shock to me that we are now sitting so low. The Luna / Terra mess is what really got the panic sell buttons going for a lot of people. It shook their faith in crypto. Hopefully people learned from that and the Celsius mess - for the sake of crypto's future.

[obsidian]

In my thread I said Q2 2022 recession and we have stimmy bucks in Q4 2022 and go again in 2023.

Gurus were saying 2023 recession.

So far, my strategy wins. Q2 GDP data currently showing 0%, it doesn’t take much for June to dip and send it to a negative and then it’ll be an official recession.

Property price decline is a bear trap. It’ll go again in 2023 and catch people off guard. Particularly regional, it’ll launch to Mars all over again.

Yes I remember you mentioned it. Time will tell. To be honest if Ethereum drops down to $300 in the short term I'd actually be happy about it and buy at that price. Just need to make sure I have cash ready on an exchange if that happens.

Jerome Powell mentioned another potential 0.75 rate hike coming in July, until they get the inflation under control. I 've read some comments by people and they are saying raise it all the way up to 9-20% fast and get it over with lol. What do you think would happen if they did that?

[Mayday]

Yes I remember you mentioned it. Time will tell. To be honest if Ethereum drops down to $300 in the short term I'd actually be happy about it and buy at that price. Just need to make sure I have cash ready on an exchange if that happens.

Jerome Powell mentioned another potential 0.75 rate hike coming in July, until they get the inflation under control. I 've read some comments by people and they are saying raise it all the way up to 9-20% fast and get it over with lol. What do you think would happen if they did that?

The Fed got the command from Biden so 0.75% hikes and maybe 1% in July if they don’t see the CPI and the sharemarket break.

We aren’t far off a deflationary event. I’m back in Consumer land now after being headhunted and it’s a mess right now.


As for crypto Celsius is insolvent and 3AC got liquidated and the CEO fled to Dubai. This has not even hit the pricing yet. It turns out these big funds we thought were all hedged and/or shorting were all mad long degenerates and got liquidated. So now, we wait and then itll be confirmed they are fucked and their holdings will be liquidated. People in the funds will lose 100% of their holdings and upon selling the holdings it nukes the price.

Don’t be surprised if this play out inside of a week.

[Thin Lizzy]

The downward pattern to date has been that the S&P hits an implied resistance level: Moving Average(100/200), Large Round number (4000), round number percentage decline (10/20%). It then either bounces around or rallies and then resumes the downtrend.

The place to be is cash.

[Theoak*]

The Fed got the command from Biden so 0.75% hikes and maybe 1% in July if they don’t see the CPI and the sharemarket break.

We aren’t far off a deflationary event. I’m back in Consumer land now after being headhunted and it’s a mess right now.

Hopefully these head-hunters come across some of your predictions over the past 20months in this thread and can get you on their books at an extreme discount  🤣.

Seriously, thought this cycle might be different myself. Unfortunately the market is no where near mature enough yet still holding up surprisingly well considering multiple black Swan events. How long it can sustain the onslaught if/when last capitulation wick down is any ones guess.

I was overly confident  we wouldnt venture near previous cycles ATH. A few more lower CPI prints with ceasing of QT and market "should" improve. Times like these I just  turn away from pricing, last 2 bear markets were brutal on me emotionally. This one hasn't had the same effect.....yet.

This whole 3AC seems to be centred around defi, degen shitcoins? This could be good for btc.

Celsius I've heard they are illiquid rather than  insolvent, who knows at this point? They have alot of wbtc  and steth in the vault and rumours are wall St trying to liquidate them. If that happens it's discount time for everyone ballsy enough to enter the market.

[Mayday]

Hopefully these head-hunters come across some of your predictions over the past 20months in this thread and can get you on their books at an extreme discount  🤣.

Seriously, thought this cycle might be different myself. Unfortunately the market is no where near mature enough yet still holding up surprisingly well considering multiple black Swan events. How long it can sustain the onslaught if/when last capitulation wick down is any ones guess.

I was overly confident  we wouldnt venture near previous cycles ATH. A few more lower CPI prints with ceasing of QT and market "should" improve. Times like these I just  turn away from pricing, last 2 bear markets were brutal on me emotionally. This one hasn't had the same effect.....yet.

This whole 3AC seems to be centred around defi, degen shitcoins? This could be good for btc.

Celsius I've heard they are illiquid rather than  insolvent, who knows at this point? They have alot of wbtc  and steth in the vault and rumours are wall St trying to liquidate them. If that happens it's discount time for everyone ballsy enough to enter the market.

My crypto stuff was shit because I was listening to gurus. Prior to that I had a top of 55k for BTC then I was lead astray by spastics and became one myself. Been right the last 7mths though since I sold as I’m following my own reasoning.

My economic stuff and consumer stuff is pretty good. Been bang on major things well in advance and made 7 figs from those I took action on. The true measure is what you took action on as that means you backed your words. I say all sorts of shit because it’s discussion, taking action is a different approach.

This cycle BTC is at the top of the S curve. We are late. 2024-25 BTC to 96k assuming it doesn’t get toasted by something else.

Price now 20.3k and BTC dominance dropped further into the 44s now. This is the end now.

[Flexacon]

This cycle BTC is at the top of the S curve. We are late. 2024-25 BTC to 96k assuming it doesn’t get toasted by something else.

Price now 20.3k and BTC dominance dropped further into the 44s now. This is the end now.

I don't think we're at the top of the S curve. The top would mean 80 to 90% of the population would have some kind of  direct or indirect exposure to bitcoin. The top would be in once most major nation states hold it on their books. The top for individuals willing to dabble in BTC might already be in though.

If we're gonna get a relief rally it could be from here. BTC might go up before it drops below 20K. That's what I'm hoping for anyway.

[Theoak*]

I don't think we're at the top of the S curve. The top would mean 80 to 90% of the population would have some kind of  direct or indirect exposure to bitcoin. The top would be in once most major nation states hold it on their books. The top for individuals willing to dabble in BTC might already be in though.

If we're gonna get a relief rally it could be from here. BTC might go up before it drops below 20K. That's what I'm hoping for anyway.

I think he means for this 4 year cycle, mini S curve.

[Thin Lizzy]

The break did fail. Chart looks weak. I don’t see the $250 a barrel happening.

Strong trending markets typically have a correction that is very quick as to not give traders a chance to get in right. Oil corrected then churned for a while before making another top.

If I had to bet, I’d say this double top breakout fails.

[a_pupil]

It's unfair to be shitting on bitcoin for this dip. Everything is down heavily. I had a 30% profit on index funds all wiped out to 0.18% lmao.

I'm just pissed off I don't have cash right now lol.

What's your guys estimate of how long this bear market will last? I'm hoping I can buy some of the dip this year.

[obsidian]

It's unfair to be shitting on bitcoin for this dip. Everything is down heavily. I had a 30% profit on index funds all wiped out to 0.18% lmao.

I'm just pissed off I don't have cash right now lol.

What's your guys estimate of how long this bear market will last? I'm hoping I can buy some of the dip this year.

Good point. Everything is down. Meanwhile cost of living went up sky high. I will have some cash ready to deploy before the end of the year. Though I want to keep some aside for an emergency in case shit gets worse or future projects are cancelled. In a perfect world I would have sold at the top and used that cash now. But that's easy to say in hindsight. It is very difficult to time the market.

[Thin Lizzy]

It's unfair to be shitting on bitcoin for this dip. Everything is down heavily. I had a 30% profit on index funds all wiped out to 0.18% lmao.

I'm just pissed off I don't have cash right now lol.

What's your guys estimate of how long this bear market will last? I'm hoping I can buy some of the dip this year.

Perfectly legit to shit on Bitcoin. It’s currently an underperforming asset class:

[Mayday]

I think he means for this 4 year cycle, mini S curve.

Correct, cheers.

For 2020-2021 we saw the largest increase in the money supply pretty much in our lifetime…… and Bitcoin hit 65k.

We have not seen any major shift away from other asset classes to suggest that BTC is the only option which was the main narrative. Property has gone bananas. Sharemarket has gone bananas. Used cars went up. Collectibles went up. This is the same outcome as previous monetary inflation periods therefore we have no change to the mix.

There is also my opinion that belief of value is first then supply/demand drives price action meaning the adoption curve doesn’t predict price, it merely predicts participants. It’s an ironic example of the internet that people show for this because the internet got more and more expensive….. then mass adoption hit and it got cheaper and cheaper. Being a store of value isn’t exactly holding up right now as all models have blown to pieces to the downside.

I have an issue with the market structure for Bitcoin success. We are at lows right now and BTC dominance is in the 44s. If alts are supposed to die off then how does that happen if 95% of them are still humming along? That’s the true inconvenient question because if we start afresh then BtC is at 45% and declines in dominance to 2024-25 somewhere under 20%.

That’s my read on it.

[Mayday]

FWIW I also doubled my HEX position last night @ 0.031.

Currently it’s the only one that has a good drop under its ATH.

[Flexacon]

There is also my opinion that belief of value is first then supply/demand drives price action meaning the adoption curve doesn’t predict price, it merely predicts participants. It’s an ironic example of the internet that people show for this because the internet got more and more expensive….. then mass adoption hit and it got cheaper and cheaper. Being a store of value isn’t exactly holding up right now as all models have blown to pieces to the downside.

I have an issue with the market structure for Bitcoin success. We are at lows right now and BTC dominance is in the 44s. If alts are supposed to die off then how does that happen if 95% of them are still humming along? That’s the true inconvenient question because if we start afresh then BtC is at 45% and declines in dominance to 2024-25 somewhere under 20%.

That’s my read on it.

More participants should in theory mean BTC becomes more scarce and that would drive price. Anyway I think it makes more sense to look at it more from the point of crypto adoption rather than just BTC adoption if making comparisons to other technology.

If nothing was built to take advantage of the internet then it would have died as no one would use it. Same with crypto, you need things built on it that people want to use.

I don't think you were wrong with your intial assessment that btc dominance would continue up higher. The current downtrend looks more like a blip. This was the best take on the situation that I've found.

https://twitter.com/hodlKRYPTONITE/status/1536609042952757249

His summary "If you are wondering why BTC and ETH are the first to be sold off, its because in a crisis, you sell what you can. Not what you want. There is no liquidity for shitcoins/ "alts"/ dreams"

[sync pulse]

Bitcoin is only worth anything if there are miners operating computer complexes...If there are no miners anywhere...Then Bitcoin would be worthless?

Its rather like comparing a movie on DVD and a streaming service....If the online service stop carrying that movie and you don't have the DVD...

[Theoak*]

More participants should in theory mean BTC becomes more scarce and that would drive price. Anyway I think it makes more sense to look at it more from the point of crypto adoption rather than just BTC adoption if making comparisons to other technology.

If nothing was built to take advantage of the internet then it would have died as no one would use it. Same with crypto, you need things built on it that people want to use.

I don't think you were wrong with your intial assessment that btc dominance would continue up higher. The current downtrend looks more like a blip. This was the best take on the situation that I've found.

https://twitter.com/hodlKRYPTONITE/status/1536609042952757249

His summary "If you are wondering why BTC and ETH are the first to be sold off, its because in a crisis, you sell what you can. Not what you want. There is no liquidity for shitcoins/ "alts"/ dreams"

I agree with this, though as I see it everything these altcoins can do Btc can also do on layers 2 ,3,4 without base layer centralisation. I'm predicting Btc as more applications are built on the ntc network over the next  10years then it should capture 60-70% dominance.

[Mayday]

More participants should in theory mean BTC becomes more scarce and that would drive price. Anyway I think it makes more sense to look at it more from the point of crypto adoption rather than just BTC adoption if making comparisons to other technology.

If nothing was built to take advantage of the internet then it would have died as no one would use it. Same with crypto, you need things built on it that people want to use.

I don't think you were wrong with your intial assessment that btc dominance would continue up higher. The current downtrend looks more like a blip. This was the best take on the situation that I've found.

https://twitter.com/hodlKRYPTONITE/status/1536609042952757249

His summary "If you are wondering why BTC and ETH are the first to be sold off, its because in a crisis, you sell what you can. Not what you want. There is no liquidity for shitcoins/ "alts"/ dreams"

Something can be scarce and worthless. Hence my argument has been belief in value first and then supply/demand dictates price action. I’ll say it again, on chain proves me correct yet nobody is actually connecting the dots. Scarcity does not equal price unless belief is there…..

19.2k now and less coins on exchanges so it’s even more scarce yet price is plummeting because belief left the building.

.

[Theoak*]

Something can be scarce and worthless. Hence my argument has been belief in value first and then supply/demand dictates price action. I’ll say it again, on chain proves me correct yet nobody is actually connecting the dots. Scarcity does not equal price unless belief is there…..

19.2k now and less coins on exchanges so it’s even more scarce yet price is plummeting because belief left the building.

.

Actually thinking  your 96k 2025 prediction might to be spot on. If we did dip below previous bull cycles ATH then I would of had 150k+ on the cards.

[FitnessFrenzy]

BTC $ 18,979.28