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Getbig Main Boards => Politics and Political Issues Board => Topic started by: OzmO on November 04, 2012, 12:59:03 PM
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How sure are you about your prediction?
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How sure are you about your prediction?
No prediction what happens happens
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I seem to remember so many sure Romney/(Obama loses to whoever) voters over the last year
Are sure are they now?
How sure are OB supporters?
Guess your are not too sure whork.
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pretty darn sure
http://www.getbig.com/boards/index.php?topic=446535.0
The study also offers another window on the current presidential contest and the endless debate over what the polls mean. In the last three weeks, polls — including by ABC/Washington Post, Gallup, Politico/George Washington University and Quinnipiac University/New York Times/CBS — have consistently found that more Americans expect President Obama to win than expect Mr. Romney to win. The margins have varied between 13 and 24 percentage points for Mr. Obama among samples of likely voters, registered voters and all adults. The gap is similar to one from a Gallup poll in mid-October 2004, when 56 percent of respondents expected Mr. Bush to win, compared with 36 percent for Mr. Kerry.
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I'm about 65% sure.
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I'm about 65% sure.
of who?
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Well, the Redskins just lost at home to the Panthers.
The stat goes that the outcome of a Redskin home game, before election day has predicted the presidential race 95% of the time.
IF the 'Skins win, the party in power in the White House stays there.
If the 'Skins lose, the opposing parting wins.
Panthers 21; Redskins 13.
(Oh, then, there's that little thing of the early voting, with Obama's numbers being way down from 2008).
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Well, the Redskins just lost at home to the Panthers.
The stat goes that the outcome of a Redskin home game, before election day has predicted the presidential race 95% of the time.
IF the 'Skins win, the party in power in the White House stays there.
If the 'Skins lose, the opposing parting wins.
Panthers 21; Redskins 13.
(Oh, then, there's that little thing of the early voting, with Obama's numbers being way down from 2008).
So all this means.....? :)
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So all this means.....? :)
Redskins loss; Obama (Democrat) currently sits in the White House.
I'm going with Romney.
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So all this means.....? :)
It's a fact look it up on wiki,I posted it a few days ago
That said I still think Obama wins ;D
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Well, the Redskins just lost at home to the Panthers.
The stat goes that the outcome of a Redskin home game, before election day has predicted the presidential race 95% of the time.
IF the 'Skins win, the party in power in the White House stays there.
If the 'Skins lose, the opposing parting wins.
Panthers 21; Redskins 13.
(Oh, then, there's that little thing of the early voting, with Obama's numbers being way down from 2008).
The world must be a complicated place for you (above all comprehension) if you think superstition and coincidence guides everything.
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The world must be a complicated place for you (above all comprehension) if you think superstition and coincidence guides everything.
McWay believes in talking snakes and a 5000 year old earth and that Jesus left the earth ascended into heaven like an ICBM
believing the outcome of a football game will decide a presidential election is a piece of cake
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https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/265247275327037440
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100% sure of a clear-cut Obama victory. Made this prediction well over a year ago.
The have-nots outnumber the haves.
The vast majority of major media outlets are nothing more than left-leaning pro-Democrat cheerleaders.
Hollywood is pro-Obama.
More people want shit handed out to them than those who'd rather work for it.
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100% sure of a clear-cut Obama victory. Made this prediction well over a year ago.
The have-nots outnumber the haves.
The vast majority of major media outlets are nothing more than left-leaning pro-Democrat cheerleaders.
Hollywood is pro-Obama.
More people want shit handed out to them than those who'd rather work for it.
Is SS and Medicare that people and their employers pay 100s of thousands of dollars into over a career "shit handed out" in your book? Cause its not in mine. If I'm not able to collect on something I'm forced to pay into then I should be able to defer that $ into some other retirement plan. Not just lose it.
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The world must be a complicated place for you (above all comprehension) if you think superstition and coincidence guides everything.
Once again, your lack of simple comprehension, to say nothing of your absence of humor, makes your blather even more pathetic than normal (and that takes some doing).
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McWay believes in talking snakes and a 5000 year old earth and that Jesus left the earth ascended into heaven like an ICBM
believing the outcome of a football game will decide a presidential election is a piece of cake
95% ain't too bad odds. And, it's more accurate and your and Adonis' slobbering over oversampled polls.
;D
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Is SS and Medicare that people and their employers pay 100s of thousands of dollars into over a career "shit handed out" in your book? Cause its not in mine. If I'm not able to collect on something I'm forced to pay into then I should be able to defer that $ into some other retirement plan. Not just lose it.
Yes. A week-long trip to the hospital would likely cost you over all that money you had to put into Medicare in the first place.
If you receive a check from the government without actively doing anything for it, you are receiving a "hand-out." Since this covers about half of all Americans(and rising), then it is obvious that the majority of these people are going to vote for the candidate that can best promise to keep the hand-outs flowing.
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95% ain't too bad odds. And, it's more accurate and your and Adonis' slobbering over oversampled polls.
;D
you're the one person on this board who has ranted about polls more in the last 3 weeks then anyone else
why bother when all you had to do was wait for a football game ?
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you're the one person on this board who has ranted about polls more in the last 3 weeks then anyone else
why bother when all you had to do was wait for a football game ?
You apparently haven't seen all of Blacken's threads.
Besides, every little bit helps.
BTW, you claimed that I didn't care about actual votes. Yet, when I posted the early voting numbers, showing Obama's tally WAY down from 2008, with Romney right behind or ahead of Obama in certain swing states, things got mighty quiet in the peanut gallery.
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I think its too close to call, but I still think Obama will pull it out.
OBAMA!!!!
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You apparently haven't seen all of Blacken's threads.
Besides, every little bit helps.
BTW, you claimed that I didn't care about actual votes. Yet, when I posted the early voting numbers, showing Obama's tally WAY down from 2008, with Romney right behind or ahead of Obama in certain swing states, things got mighty quiet in the peanut gallery.
fair enough - I haven't actually bothered counting up either of your threads
the truly good news is that all this nonsense will be over in 2 more days
my statements about "actual votes" were sarcasm as you constantly seemed to be ranting about the polls, Gallup in particular
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fair enough - I haven't actually bothered counting up either of your threads
the truly good news is that all this nonsense will be over in 2 more days
my statements about "actual votes" were sarcasm as you constantly seemed to be ranting about the polls, Gallup in particular
we can finally agree on something, Im tired of the polling data, the ridiculous ads and the pandering.
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we can finally agree on something, Im tired of the polling data, the ridiculous ads and the pandering.
I still haven't figured out who the attack ads are aimed at. Everyone I know says the same things - these stupid attack ads just make them want to vote for the other person. And they're stupid as fuck, nothing but talking points on both sides, telling us how the other candidate is pure evil and going to eat your babies while opening a portal to hell.
Don't get me started on the polls, all these different polls sampling different sets of people to make it look like their candidate is ahead. So sick of seeing a poll only to read "Poll: Likely votes of cousins uncles former roommates shows Rombama ahead by 42 million with a 103% chance of winning."
My conclusion, it's impossible for any of us to have any idea of whats REALLY going on. Everyone is too invested in one candidate to give us a no bullshit answer.
I am so over this shit.
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The election being is close as it is, we may have a recount in one or more battleground states. Let's hope it doesn't happen, but there is a definite chance: in most of the relevant states, recounts are automatically initiated if the difference between candidates is 0.5% of the total vote or less.
Supposedly, the states are prepared after the debacle that was the 2000 election; even so, a recount will mean the outcome isn't clear for at least 10 days. If in the process of a recount there are legal challenges, it will be weeks before we have a new president.
Just warning you all who seem to think this thing is 100% done in a little over 24 hours from now.
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of who?
BO.
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not that sure
democrats cheat and are mostly criminals after all
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fair enough - I haven't actually bothered counting up either of your threads
the truly good news is that all this nonsense will be over in 2 more days
my statements about "actual votes" were sarcasm as you constantly seemed to be ranting about the polls, Gallup in particular
That's because, at the time, I didn't have any numbers from actual votes. Now I do, and you've seen them at least twice within the last day or so.
But, since Adonis and others TKers want to yap about statistics and odds, why not cite the odds in Gallup (when a challenger is 50% or higher since mid-October, currently at 100%).
Or cite the ol' "Redskins Rule" which is (making a correction here) 94% accurate? 17 of 18 times, the outcome of a Redskins home game before election day had picked the winner.
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That's because, at the time, I didn't have any numbers from actual votes. Now I do, and you've seen them at least twice within the last day or so.
But, since Adonis and others TKers want to yap about statistics and odds, why not cite the odds in Gallup (when a challenger is 50% or higher since mid-October, currently at 100%).
Or cite the ol' "Redskins Rule" which is (making a correction here) 94% accurate? 17 of 18 times, the outcome of a Redskins home game before election day had picked the winner.
I'm glad the football game makes you feel good
have you been following the story about the lines in Florida ?
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About 90%. He has not ran.on.his record, only trying to slander Romney. Unfortunately, there are a lot ignorant and naive people who will vote for handouts and because he's black. No other reasons
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About 90%. He has not ran.on.his record, only trying to slander Romney. Unfortunately, there are a lot ignorant and naive people who will vote for handouts and because he's black. No other reasons
LOL
what are you drinking tonight ?
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How sure are you about your prediction?
I have not the slightest fucking clue...
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LOL
what are you drinking tonight ?
Not the kool-aid....that's for sure ;D
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Who thinks its a toss up?
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Who thinks its a toss up?
No way.
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Who thinks its a toss up?
I guess I do :-X
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Not the kool-aid....that's for sure ;D
Ok so not kool -aid.
So what are you drinkiing?
Whiskey
Scotch
?
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Who thinks its a toss up?
<------- This guy.
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I'm glad the football game makes you feel good
have you been following the story about the lines in Florida ?
I have, somewhat. From what I've seen, it's the same old deal: The Dems want the rules changed mid-stream when things don't quite go their way.
IF they wanted early voting extended, that should have been addressed long before now.
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You have a ton of experts who have great track records saying Romney wins in a landslide. You have tied polls, margin of error polls, outliers....Libya, the economy.....excitement gape etc. I'm looking at the same shit as everybody else. This isn't 2008 where we on the right hoped McCain would pull it out. This shit is tied going into tommorrow. I voted for Romney that's about all I can count on.
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You have a ton of experts who have great track records saying Romney wins in a landslide. You have tied polls, margin of error polls, outliers....Libya, the economy.....excitement gape etc. I'm looking at the same shit as everybody else. This isn't 2008 where we on the right hoped McCain would pull it out. This shit is tied going into tommorrow. I voted for Romney that's about all I can count on.
None say that. None with any real data to back up that ridiculous statement.
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None say that. None with any real data to back up that ridiculous statement.
Other than (at the very least) the two guys who ran the last two successful re-election campaigns. ::)
We do indeed have tied polls (two of them in states Obama should have nailed down long ago, Pennsylvania and Michigan).
Keep relying on polls with Dems oversampled by 8 or 9 (and guys making predictions on such) if you wish. You could be in for a rude awakening Tuesday night.
Romney's up with independents, up with white working-class voters, up with men, and have about pulled even with women.
Not to mention, there are those aforementioned early voting numbers, showing Obama WAAAAAAY down from 2008.
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None say that. None with any real data to back up that ridiculous statement.
http://www.dickmorris.com/here-comes-the-landslide/
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http://www.dickmorris.com/here-comes-the-landslide/
::)
He "predicted" the exact same thing in 2008. ROFLMAO
Dick Morris predicts McCain landslide victory!
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2086667/posts
http://smartretorts.blogspot.com/2008/09/breaking-news-dick-morris-predicts.html
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::)
He "predicted" the exact same thing in 2008. ROFLMAO
Dick Morris predicts McCain landslide victory!
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2086667/posts
http://smartretorts.blogspot.com/2008/09/breaking-news-dick-morris-predicts.html
That was before (or shortly after) the economic crash.
This time, there is no economic boom to save Obama. Of course, we have libs, thinking that Hurricane Sandy is going to save Obama. But, it appears his photo-ops with Christie were (as usual) all sizzle and no steak.
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That was before (or shortly after) the economic crash.
This time, there is no economic boom to save Obama. Of course, we have libs, thinking that Hurricane Sandy is going to save Obama. But, it appears his photo-ops with Christie were (as usual) all sizzle and no steak.
He was in NJ for a total of 90mins then off to Vegas.
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That was before (or shortly after) the economic crash.
This time, there is no economic boom to save Obama. Of course, we have libs, thinking that Hurricane Sandy is going to save Obama. But, it appears his photo-ops with Christie were (as usual) all sizzle and no steak.
You have deluded yourself so far into fantasy-land at this point. Seriously, you are looking desperate here. The Redskin Game, the Post from over a month ago that you thought was current, the weaseling about Dick Morris being DEAD WRONG in 2008 with the exact same prediction then as now.... I can only imagine whats coming next when Obama easily wins (according to all nonpartisan data, evidence and facts and aggregate data).
I can`t wait to hear your excuses. Its going to be HIGHLY amusing. You will probably be in shock for a few days (although you shouldn`t if you actually paid attention to all the hard data).
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You have deluded yourself so far into fantasy-land at this point. Seriously, you are looking desperate here. The Redskin Game, the Post from over a month ago that you thought was current, the weaseling about Dick Morris being DEAD WRONG in 2008 with the exact same prediction then as now.... I can only imagine whats coming next when Obama easily wins (according to all nonpartisan data, evidence and facts and aggregate data).
I can`t wait to hear your excuses. Its going to be HIGHLY amusing. You will probably be in shock for a few days (although you shouldn`t if you actually paid attention to all the hard data).
What's going to be your excuses, in the event Romney wins? What's going to happen on election day when the Dems aren't running +9 on the Republicans?
Are you going to curse and spew at Nate Silver? Are you going to take a match to your "aggregate data"?
As for Morris, I notice you didn't get his prediction after the crash, which changed the complexion of the entire race.
Yes, I goofed by claiming that one article was current. But, guess what, I posted the current numbers in Ohio and...SURPRISE SURPRISE....they back that article's assertion.
But, don't take my word for it:
From that article:
In 2008, there were 1,158,301 total absentee ballots requested, 33 percent registered Democrat and 19 percent registered Republican--a 14 point gap. So far in 2012, 638,997 ballots have been requested, 29 percent Democrat and 24 percent Republican--only a five point gap.
From Politico (early voting from Ohio as of Nov. 4, 2:49 pm EST
Ohio
Votes: 1.6 million
Democrats: 29 percent
Republicans: 23 percent
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1112/83176.html#ixzz2BKdD9rrw
And, it's not just Ohio. He's barely ahead in Florida and LOSING in Colorado.
Colorado
Votes: 1.6 million
Democrats: 35 percent
Republicans: 37 percent
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Florida
Votes: 3.9 million
Democrats: 43 percent
Republicans: 40 percent
Obama's numbers are down. To the surprise of nobody, neither you nor ID Crisis Boy could refute them. You also ducked the issue about Romney's winning independents, white-working-class, males and nearly pulling even with women. How's THAT for hard data?
And as for the "Redskin Rule", that's almost as American as apple pie. Notwithstanding its jovial nature, at 94% accuracy, it's right up there with your so-called non-partisan data (as if polls oversampling Dems by 8 points or more is non-partisan ::) ).
Guess what happens, if Romney gets Ohio, Colorado, and sweeps the Southeast (VA, NC, FL)......275 EC votes...BALL GAME!!!
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100% sure of a clear-cut Obama victory. Made this prediction well over a year ago.
The have-nots outnumber the haves.
The vast majority of major media outlets are nothing more than left-leaning pro-Democrat cheerleaders.
Hollywood is pro-Obama.
More people want shit handed out to them than those who'd rather work for it.
Republican voters recieve the most welfare
Red states have the highest number of welfare recipients
And FOX the largest network is neocon
You are a pathetic and full of shit
You are a stupid parrot and a brainwashed sheep
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Who thinks its a toss up?
Its gonna be damn close
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About 90%. He has not ran.on.his record, only trying to slander Romney. Unfortunately, there are a lot ignorant and naive people who will vote for handouts and because he's black. No other reasons
There is a lot of war-mongerers and racists out there who will never vote for Obama because he is fiscal responsible and black. No other reasons
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Just as there are alot of minority welfare cases that only vote what they're told by the person driving them to the polls or because Obama is black and will give them free shit.....
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None say that. None with any real data to back up that ridiculous statement.
Barone and Will for two. You're living in fantasy land if you think your failure president is popular. What happens if your guy wins the EC but loses the popular vote.....
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Barone and Will for two. You're living in fantasy land if you think your failure president is popular. What happens if your guy wins the EC but loses the popular vote.....
Even in NYC people don't give a damn about Obama. He is a has been and a laugh line here.
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He was in NJ for a total of 90mins then off to Vegas.
No shit! His little photo drive by pissed off a lot of people.
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Too bad the election wasn't next week. Half of NYC would look like the zombie apocalypse...not something Obozo would like to see on the evening news.
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RASMUSSEN: O 49% R 49%...
ABCWASHPOST: O 49% R 48%...
GALLUP SWING: O 48% R 48%...
CNN: TIED (WITH D+11)...
FL: R 52% O 47%...
MI: R 47% O 46%...
VA: O 48% R 47%...
So yeah AD.......you know as much as I do how this will turn out...feelings aside.
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Barone and Will for two. You're living in fantasy land if you think your failure president is popular. What happens if your guy wins the EC but loses the popular vote.....
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RASMUSSEN: O 49% R 49%...
ABCWASHPOST: O 49% R 48%...
GALLUP SWING: O 48% R 48%...
CNN: TIED (WITH D+11)...
FL: R 52% O 47%...
MI: R 47% O 46%...
VA: O 48% R 47%...
So yeah AD.......you know as much as I do how this will turn out...feelings aside.
We have a some new ones.
FL: 51-45 Romney (Florida Times-Union)
Nationally, 49-48, Romney (Rasmussen)
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donna Brazil is a liar.
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MCWAY getting a beating in this thread, lol.
MCWAY, what are the taxes in fantasy land? much property there?
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MCWAY getting a beating in this thread, lol.
MCWAY, what are the taxes in fantasy land? much property there?
What fantasy land?
Refute the stats I put up, Necrosis, since it's obvious Adonis can't do it.
Show the folks here that Obama's numbers aren't down in early voting from 2008. The hard numbers are there; so let's see you counter them. Or are you going to keep yapping about how much people in Europe love Obama.
BTW, those early voting numbers have just been updated on Politico:
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Colorado
Votes: 1.6 million
Democrats: 35 percent
Republicans: 37 percent
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Florida
Votes: 4.3 million
Democrats: 43 percent
Republicans: 40 percent
Ohio
Votes: 1.6 million
Democrats: 29 percent
Republicans: 23 percent
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1112/83176.html#ixzz2BMPBcDbq
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What fantasy land?
Refute the stats I put up, Necrosis, since it's obvious Adonis can't do it.
Show the folks here that Obama's numbers aren't down in early voting. The hard numbers are there; so let's see you counter them. Or are you going to keep yapping about how much people in Europe love Obama.
BTW, those early voting numbers have just been updated on Politico:
___
Colorado
Votes: 1.6 million
Democrats: 35 percent
Republicans: 37 percent
___
Florida
Votes: 4.3 million
Democrats: 43 percent
Republicans: 40 percent
Ohio
Votes: 1.6 million
Democrats: 29 percent
Republicans: 23 percent
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1112/83176.html#ixzz2BMPBcDbq
Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1112/83176.html#ixzz2BMOsEauG
No no, I was talking more about your general soft spot for fantasy like talking snakes, Romney's chances, global warming, evolution and fox being unbiased.
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No no, I was talking more about your general soft spot for fantasy like talking snakes, Romney's chances, global warming, evolution and fox being unbiased.
Just as I thought: Rather than address the subject at hand, you foolishly start talking about stuff that has nothing to do with the topic.
We have real numbers, which indicated that (as Gallup and Pew predicted) Obama's vaunted early voting edge is practically GONE.
That factors into Romney's chances. But, you don't want to talk about that.
Then, there are all these polls that (even with massive Dem oversampling) have Obama under 50%, WITH JUST ONE DAY TO GO. Many have it tied and we all know how ties go, when it comes to incumbent presidents.
But, you don't want to talk about that.
Then there are the numbers that have Romney up with men, up with independents, nearly tied with women.
But you don't want to talk about that.
This topic has ZILCH to do about Fox News, global warming, or your boneheaded potshots at my religious beliefs.
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Just as I thought: Rather than address the subject at hand, you foolishly start talking about stuff that has nothing to do with the topic.
We have real numbers, which indicated that (as Gallup and Pew predicted) Obama's vaunted early voting edge is practically GONE.
That factors into Romney's chances. But, you don't want to talk about that.
Then, there are all these polls that (even with massive Dem oversampling) have Obama under 50%, WITH JUST ONE DAY TO GO. Many have it tied and we all know how ties go, when it comes to incumbent presidents.
But, you don't want to talk about that.
Then there are the numbers that have Romney up with men, up with independents, nearly tied with women.
But you don't want to talk about that.
This topic has ZILCH to do about Fox News, global warming, or your boneheaded potshots at my religious beliefs.
you are out to lunch, keep posting stats from a month ago and using failed football analogies.
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you are out to lunch, keep posting stats from a month ago and using failed football analogies.
The stats I posted here aren't from a month ago. Those are early voting numbers, updated as of today. And, what a shocker, they virtually mirror the stats from other article I cited. ::)
But, just as I thought, you're too scared to talk the actual numbers.
You can't refute them; so, you resort to flapping your gums about nothing.
BTW, how do you get a "failed football analogy", with something with a 94% accuracy rate? ;D
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You apparently haven't seen all of Blacken's threads.
Besides, every little bit helps.
BTW, you claimed that I didn't care about actual votes. Yet, when I posted the early voting numbers, showing Obama's tally WAY down from 2008, with Romney right behind or ahead of Obama in certain swing states, things got mighty quiet in the peanut gallery.
you notice i post a poll and wait for your responce,it's just a fun game for me ;D i going to post some later, so get ready
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you notice i post a poll and wait for your responce,it's just a fun game for me ;D i going to post some later, so get ready
There is only one poll w obama at 50% and that is a +6 Demo poll.
For an incumbent that is terrible.
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you notice i post a poll and wait for your responce,it's just a fun game for me ;D i going to post some later, so get ready
I've already posted some here.
Daily tracking: 49-48 Romney (Rasmussen)
FL: Romney 52-47 (Times-Union)
VA: Romney 50-48 (Rasmussen)
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There is only one poll w obama at 50% and that is a +6 Demo poll.
For an incumbent that is terrible.
Then, there are those early voting numbers, about which some people don't want to talk.