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Getbig Main Boards => Gossip & Opinions => Topic started by: Mayday on March 21, 2023, 06:45:21 PM
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You will get +0.25% and you will be happy.
Nothing in April. Then a final 0.25% in May just to remind the plebs that we are tightening.
Now get ready to YOLO 100x
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Why are we about to YOLO?
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alhamdulillah
PUMP AND DUMP
DUMP AND PUMP
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Why are we about to YOLO?
Because ‘Muh QE’
The market is looking for a cut in July. It thinks 0.25% today so if that happens the market assumes cuts in July are correct and assumes masses of QE is coming.
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JPowell seemed really nervous and was over explaining everything.
Liquidity is gonna drain again from the markets. Prices could remain stable or even go up for a while, but then a violent dump if something breaks or a slow but prolonged drop on bad data and recession.
Bull market is a long way away :'(
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Xi Jinping back double biceps and GAME OVER BABY!
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That the financial media goes on endlessly about the Fed, should tell you that spending mental energy on this shit is not gonna make you money. Hope this helps.
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Think about all the time and energy spent by people who think that guessing the actions of a central planning agency is gonna make them money, and the end result is that the market is exactly where is was in May of last year.
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That the financial media goes on endlessly about the Fed, should tell you that spending mental energy on this shit is not gonna make you money. Hope this helps.
indeed, keeping up with bodybuilding media is a way smarter approach to stay on top of current events and trends
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Why are we about to YOLO?
He's being sarcastic.
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JPowell seemed really nervous and was over explaining everything.
Liquidity is gonna drain again from the markets. Prices could remain stable or even go up for a while, but then a violent dump if something breaks or a slow but prolonged drop on bad data and recession.
Bull market is a long way away :'(
So let’s layout timespan and decline vs all other major moves the past 50yrs.
Current move would be 8 months from peak to bottom (-28%). If one were to say there is a second leg down then we would consider April to be month 15 and compare to those longer timelines below.
How do you like your odds?
*2022 took 8 months to bottom (-28%)
*2018 took 3 months to bottom (-20%)
*2020 pandemic took 2 months to bottom (-35%)
*GFC took 15 months top to bottom (-58%)
*1970 drop took 17 months —> last leg down in months 16-17 (-37%)
*1981 drop took 21 months —> last leg down in months 16-21 (-28%)
*1973 drop took 21 months —> large drops from month 10+ (-53%)
*Dotcom took 22 months top to bottom —> 2nd leg down month 12 then in month 21 (-49%)
Looking at the list I think we could agree we are in the zone for either a
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Lots of people going to be working till 80.
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Think about all the time and energy spent by people who think that guessing the actions of a central planning agency is gonna make them money, and the end result is that the market is exactly where is was in May of last year.
Did 2.5x from when I bought 9 months ago and I sold to get the profit in cash for my next entry. Even posted here on my entry and started bullposting.
It’s not a guessing game if you have modelled rate moves and inflation. I already had 5.33% as my guidance for peak in May 2023. I have First cut best case November 2023.
Market can chop all it wants. When BTC is heading towards 35k sidelines people are going to vomit..
Is it coincidence that just as banks collapse and liquidity is flooding in that crypto rallies 👀
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Think about all the time and energy spent by people who think that guessing the actions of a central planning agency is gonna make them money, and the end result is that the market is exactly where is was in May of last year.
If you're in cash ($1,000,000) for 2 years and lets say CPI is at 10% for both those years, then after 2 years your real purchasing power has dropped to $825,000 equivalent to 2 years ago
Lets say after 2 years you then catch the bottom of the stock market and put your $1,000,000 back in (CPI for year 3 is is 5%) You need the stock market to rally 30% in a year just for your purchasing power from 3 years ago to get you back to equal. And that's only IF you catch the bottom.
If you want to protect your wealth, then you can't just sit everything out and wait in cash for too long.
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Because ‘Muh QE’
The market is looking for a cut in July. It thinks 0.25% today so if that happens the market assumes cuts in July are correct and assumes masses of QE is coming.
They are either "worried" about inflation or they aren't. Any QE would signal they aren't. We are due for a double recession/depression after artificially propping this bull up for a decade. We need a depression for society to get back to normal.
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So let’s layout timespan and decline vs all other major moves the past 50yrs.
Current move would be 8 months from peak to bottom (-28%). If one were to say there is a second leg down then we would consider April to be month 15 and compare to those longer timelines below.
How do you like your odds?
*2022 took 8 months to bottom (-28%)
*2018 took 3 months to bottom (-20%)
*2020 pandemic took 2 months to bottom (-35%)
*GFC took 15 months top to bottom (-58%)
*1970 drop took 17 months —> last leg down in months 16-17 (-37%)
*1981 drop took 21 months —> last leg down in months 16-21 (-28%)
*1973 drop took 21 months —> large drops from month 10+ (-53%)
*Dotcom took 22 months top to bottom —> 2nd leg down month 12 then in month 21 (-49%)
Looking at the list I think we could agree we are in the zone for either a
GFC type crash looks to have been avoided.
Big tech is forming a new AI driven bubble (Crypto is bubbling too, some were calling it an echo bubble) If the tech bubble pops as AI is probably years away from being profitable then that's another leg down which might look like Dotcom
Check also 46 to 49 for what a soft landing might look like
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GFC type crash looks to have been avoided.
Big tech is forming a new AI driven bubble (Crypto is bubbling too, some were calling it an echo bubble) If the tech bubble pops as AI is probably years away from being profitable then that's another leg down which might look like Dotcom
Check also 46 to 49 for what a soft landing might look like
Good point.
Ok let’s add the major declines further back and compare to the 2022 move.
First thing is the decline in 2022 in the span of time I think aligns well to history for total moves or moves that had 2+ legs down. In other words, i think we can agree 2022 looks like it either completed a total move or completed a first leg down. We are not in limbo.
Cutting through the fog you would pick 1946-49 and 70-73-81 because these are the only declines during an inflationary cycle of rates, money supply, shortages and crazy economic growth. In saying that, neither fit the same rate movement cycle as today. We were in decline during rate increases whereas the other examples happened at rate peaks.
81 model we don’t look anything like it so remove that
73 model timing is off so remove that aswell
70 model is in play yes and timing could be on par if we consider rates about to peak and confusion on the consumer front when rate cuts don’t happen in H2. My bias is towards this one as the Fed backstopped banks therefore it’s consumers on the hook to trigger a further leg down. We will have a landing of some sort in H2 of this year IMO.
46 model is in play particularly as this was a period of strong economic transition post war.
In short if it’s 1970 style the S&P tags 3,000 in Q3 this year. If it’s 1946 style the S&P 3,350in 2025.
*2022 took 8 months to bottom (-28%)
*2018 took 3 months to bottom (-20%)
*2020 pandemic took 2 months to bottom (-35%)
*1962 took 6 months to bottom (-28)
*1966 took 8 months to bottom (-24%)
*GFC took 15 months top to bottom (-58%)
*1970 drop took 17 months —> last leg down in months 16-17 (-37%)
*1981 drop took 21 months —> last leg down in months 16-21 (-28%)
*1973 drop took 21 months —> large drops from month 10+ (-53%)
*Dotcom took 22 months top to bottom —> 2nd leg down month 12 then in month 21 (-49%)
*1946-49 took 37 months to bottom —> 1st leg 7 months -23% then final bottom 37 months -25%
*1937 took 63 months to bottom —> 1st leg 10 months -45% 2nd leg 43 months -57%
Looking at the list I think we could agree we are in the zone for either a
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If you're in cash ($1,000,000) for 2 years and lets say CPI is at 10% for both those years, then after 2 years your real purchasing power has dropped to $825,000 equivalent to 2 years ago
Lets say after 2 years you then catch the bottom of the stock market and put your $1,000,000 back in (CPI for year 3 is is 5%) You need the stock market to rally 30% in a year just for your purchasing power from 3 years ago to get you back to equal. And that's only IF you catch the bottom.
If you want to protect your wealth, then you can't just sit everything out and wait in cash for too long.
No argument that cash is a bad long term investment. I just don’t see how knocking your brains out about the Fed does any good. Better to just look at what the market is actually doing and tune everything else out.
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Ok let’s add the major declines further back and compare to the 2022 move.
FYI as much as I like looking at previous bear markets, my default is set as this one will do it's own thing and won't look exactly like any of the others.
My other default is that we will get a recession and we'll go lower (I'm beautifully positioned for that). Also we won't go below covid crash bounce prices as longs from back there have no reason to become sellers.
I like a DotCom repeat for now though. Next round of anaemic earnings should wake people up and they become sellers. Otherwise 46-49 but in a shorter timeframe. They are still in quiet a strong position to pull off a (semi) soft landing despite what people might think. They potentially still have quite a lot of control thanks to liquidity they can pump in from RRP.
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No argument that cash is a bad long term investment. I just don’t see how knocking your brains out about the Fed does any good. Better to just look at what the market is actually doing and tune everything else out.
It's just what the market is right now. Yellen "misspeaking" dumped the market 2%. Unexpected FED numbers and guidance could dump it 10 to20%. Look what happened after Jackson hole.
If you hold a position you have to pay attention to these things now. Almost nothing is actually trading on merit or the way they really should. It's a clown market.
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It's just what the market is right now. Yellen "misspeaking" dumped the market 2%. Unexpected FED numbers and guidance could dump it 10 to20%. Look what happened after Jackson hole.
If you hold a position you have to pay attention to these things now. Almost nothing is actually trading on merit or the way they really should. It's a clown market.
And the move got retraced the following morning. These things like the Fed, Unemployment reports and CPI yada yada are just rationalizations for price movements. The market makers don’t give a fuck one way or the other. It’s all about the technical position of the market.
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And the move got retraced the following morning. These things like the Fed, Unemployment reports and CPI yada yada are just rationalizations for price movements. The market makers don’t give a fuck one way or the other. It’s all about the technical position of the market.
Retraced after her second statement to clarify what she actually meant.
Market makers will always be in charge, but this particular period of time has something that has almost never been seen before, and that's 0DTE options contracts coming in en masse and moving the markets. Even market makers are having to temporarily take a back seat when those come in. Those positions are predominately trading on the things you mention and it must be profitable for them as it's been going on for a while now.
There are also people killing it right now watching and waiting for those contracts to come in. I've seen a guy make 28 out 30 profitable trades on this. I've done pretty well myself catching a good number of these moves. You have people waiting to trade the policy news/data and then you have people waiting to trade on those trade flows. That's part of the reason why loads of people are paying more attention to this stuff than is typically worth it.
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FYI as much as I like looking at previous bear markets, my default is set as this one will do it's own thing and won't look exactly like any of the others.
My other default is that we will get a recession and we'll go lower (I'm beautifully positioned for that). Also we won't go below covid crash bounce prices as longs from back there have no reason to become sellers.
I like a DotCom repeat for now though. Next round of anaemic earnings should wake people up and they become sellers. Otherwise 46-49 but in a shorter timeframe. They are still in quiet a strong position to pull off a (semi) soft landing despite what people might think. They potentially still have quite a lot of control thanks to liquidity they can pump in from RRP.
I think we will see something in the second half of this year but still at 3,500 bottom we were going close to 20% up from the lows since then so that's a strong performance in a short time.
For earnings we will likely try and cover it with price rises and launch new skus for volume. Generally that's the path consumer business takes. Then it blows up the inventory metrics and a shitstorm rains down but by then the people who fucked it have left. The mugs game is what i do which is the cleanup. Way better to be the type who fuck everything because you get the bonuses and then walk away.
People still buying cars and shit at the shops. Liquidity is there from consumers. Given banks are bankstopped this is a pure play on waiting for consumer and tech to feel the pain and take the fall.
My miner stocks finally started to move this week and i'm in positive territory now. Looked like i had made a mistake a few weeks back but it's turned good. Hoping for +10% move before i exit. Basically watching the DXY and think 0.96 could be the next stop which should get me there. Money is starting to move out of the US.
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I think we will see something in the second half of this year but still at 3,500 bottom we were going close to 20% up from the lows since then so that's a strong performance in a short time.
For earnings we will likely try and cover it with price rises and launch new skus for volume. Generally that's the path consumer business takes. Then it blows up the inventory metrics and a shitstorm rains down but by then the people who fucked it have left. The mugs game is what i do which is the cleanup. Way better to be the type who fuck everything because you get the bonuses and then walk away.
People still buying cars and shit at the shops. Liquidity is there from consumers. Given banks are bankstopped this is a pure play on waiting for consumer and tech to feel the pain and take the fall.
My miner stocks finally started to move this week and i'm in positive territory now. Looked like i had made a mistake a few weeks back but it's turned good. Hoping for +10% move before i exit. Basically watching the DXY and think 0.96 could be the next stop which should get me there. Money is starting to move out of the US.
I was looking into miners and what I found is that in bear markets when things like gold are going up, miners in comparison don't do as well. You're basically better off buying spot rather than trying to get exposure elsewhere.
Also wanted to show you a chart showing what year in a 4 year term of the presidency markets tend to crash. Can't find the chart right now, but in the 3rd year (this is Bidens 3rd) markets have never crashed and have generally ended the year Green
https://money.cnn.com/2015/01/07/investing/stocks-markets-worst-start-since-2008/index.html
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I was looking into miners and what I found is that in bear markets when things like gold are going up, miners in comparison don't do as well. You're basically better off buying spot rather than trying to get exposure elsewhere.
Also wanted to show you a chart showing what year in a 4 year term of the presidency markets tend to crash. Can't find the chart right now, but in the 3rd year (this is Bidens 3rd) markets have never crashed and have generally ended the year Green
https://money.cnn.com/2015/01/07/investing/stocks-markets-worst-start-since-2008/index.html
It’s in a fund for retirement so there are only certain things I have access to. Can’t do spot but I do miners who at least get a benefit. We got the tap off 19.50 for XAG so I’m assuming the bottom is in and if we see the DXY have a slow bleed A break above 25 will give me some confidence in the move.
I took position pretty early on this but it’s based around today feeling like money is nervous but we aren’t actually collapsing. Exact same shit when I played silver in 2011 and did super well. Everyone was nervous, post GFC fears of the market going to crash, CDS going apeshit, banks fears. Contagion worries saw outflows of US as everyone pulled out to stabilise the Euro system.
That’s interesting about the US presidency. I can imagine a few factors as to why but I really don’t know what would be say the top 2 key factors. Is it opponent isn’t decided and current regime starts to unveil fiscal packages?
There is a chart doing the rounds again which is the S&P crashes when the Fed pivots. No issue there but the market is expecting rate cuts in July vs Fed in February 2024. Plus in addition equities are thinking cuts in July means QE and are trying to front run everything.
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That’s interesting about the US presidency. I can imagine a few factors as to why but I really don’t know what would be say the top 2 key factors. Is it opponent isn’t decided and current regime starts to unveil fiscal packages?
Wasn't sure myself, but you would imagine if POTUS was in control they'd try make sure markets didn't crash in election years. Politically the 3rd year would be a preferred year for a crash
There is a chart doing the rounds again which is the S&P crashes when the Fed pivots. No issue there but the market is expecting rate cuts in July vs Fed in February 2024. Plus in addition equities are thinking cuts in July means QE and are trying to front run everything.
Yes. Posted in another thread Just gotta remember the markets will probably bottom several months after a FED pivot.
The reason being the FED pivots because something broke, contagion unwinds and then we reach the bottom.
Market participants have been getting destroyed trying to second guess the FED. They'll stick the course until something breaks (banks are fine) The market expecting a rate cut in July is more desperate act in trying to force the FED to change course
Coincidentally this just got posted on twitter
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FsBsSqcWwAMosxc?format=jpg&name=4096x4096)
Current #SPX bear market (blue) compared to:
1946-1949 Bear Market, Soft Landing, High Inflation (Light Blue)
1973-1974 Bear Market, Hard Landing, High Inflation (Pink)
2000-2002 Bear Market - Dotcom crash (Green)
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Yes. Posted in another thread The reason being the FED pivots because something broke, contagion unwinds and then we reach the bottom.
Market participants have been getting destroyed trying to second guess the FED. They'll stick the course until something breaks (banks are fine) The market expecting a rate cut in July is more desperate act in trying to force the FED to change course
Coincidentally this just got posted on twitter
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FsBsSqcWwAMosxc?format=jpg&name=4096x4096)
Current #SPX bear market (blue) compared to:
1946-1949 Bear Market, Soft Landing, High Inflation (Light Blue)
1973-1974 Bear Market, Hard Landing, High Inflation (Pink)
2000-2002 Bear Market - Dotcom crash (Green)
You are right it will look different, no river is walked through the same twice. but the outcome will be identical as both 40s and 70s achieved the monetisation of debt and a property bailout.
For a soft landing like 1946 we have the central banks backstopping the banks with unlimited liquidity basically. If that wasn’t done we’d be fucked sideways already.
However, for a hard landing we have a rate cycle identical to 1967-1969 which is where my model is.
So it’s a combination of the two from what I can see:
prevent the multiple 58% crashes by backstopping banks with liquidity while preventing the highs with aggressive rate cycles. Ends in sideways equity chop perhaps.
On the liquidity side there was 3T added to the balance sheet for bank liquidity basically immediately when covid hit. Then came the stimmy to the plebs. Same thing fired up now with the aces balance sheet so if this is creating room for the 2nd wave we need to see more than 3T come onto the Fed books.
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So it’s a combination of the two from what I can see:
prevent the multiple 58% crashes by backstopping banks with liquidity while preventing the highs with aggressive rate cycles. Ends in sideways equity chop perhaps.
On the liquidity side there was 3T added to the balance sheet for bank liquidity basically immediately when covid hit. Then came the stimmy to the plebs. Same thing fired up now with the aces balance sheet so if this is creating room for the 2nd wave we need to see more than 3T come onto the Fed books.
The sideways equity chop is where I'm pretty much at right now and for the foreseeable future. Maybe when something breaks they start stimmy
The recent injection of liquidity should hit prices soon. Maybe next week, or first week in April. Btc and Eth didn't dump this week and there was more than enough bad news to crash them. That kinda strength typically only comes from what's going on in the broader market. The face ripper you mention is close (could still dump before it pumps though)
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The sideways equity chop is where I'm pretty much at right now and for the foreseeable future. Maybe when something breaks they start stimmy
The recent injection of liquidity should hit prices soon. Maybe next week, or first week in April. Btc and Eth didn't dump this week and there was more than enough bad news to crash them. That kinda strength typically only comes from what's going on in the broader market. The face ripper you mention is close (could still dump before it pumps though)
SPX back above the pre banking crises prices and the markets look like they are getting ready to rally. Expect a mini dip soon, maybe later today or tomorrow, but then it's going up to semi retarded levels. Russell 2000 might be the true retards play.
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SPX back above the pre banking crises prices and the markets look like they are getting ready to rally. Expect a mini dip soon, maybe later today or tomorrow, but then it's going up to semi retarded levels. Russell 2000 might be the true retards play.
Market says no bank crisis. Can’t blame them when central banks backstop the big players.
Market now pricing one last increase in May as the peak.
Market now pricing in first cut in September.
With the runway out to May and September it’s possible the DXY has a leg down which is what my position in silver miners is based on. That position is tapping +10% now which is good enough to take profit but I think we won’t have ‘the’ sell off event for months so I’m looking to leave it open. Top end could be +30%.
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2 year rate climbing again.
Inversion curve widening.
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Market says no bank crisis. Can’t blame them when central banks backstop the big players.
Market now pricing one last increase in May as the peak.
Market now pricing in first cut in September.
With the runway out to May and September it’s possible the DXY has a leg down which is what my position in silver miners is based on. That position is tapping +10% now which is good enough to take profit but I think we won’t have ‘the’ sell off event for months so I’m looking to leave it open. Top end could be +30%.
Following what the market is expecting rates to come in at is ruining people. I was one of them for the first half of 2022.
I've got the DXY low in April and a SPX top in May.
Tech stock as a percentage of the SPX is almost at Dec 2021 high. It's basically a bubble again.
Also check out the SPX for March, April, May 2008 and and 2001. That's the kinda leg up I think we'll get. After that things get interesting or more accurately scary. Be careful about staying in anything for too long.
Surprised the SPX didn't drop a bit lower yesterday and fill some gaps. I think we could still get that next week, but look at my boy Russell go. Up 200BPS already!
I was gonna post something about link in the btc thread. Kinda lazy though, but bump that thread if you're interested
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Following what the market is expecting rates to come in at is ruining people. I was one of them for the first half of 2022.
I've got the DXY low in April and a SPX top in May.
Tech stock as a percentage of the SPX is almost at Dec 2021 high. It's basically a bubble again.
Also check out the SPX for March, April, May 2008 and and 2001. That's the kinda leg up I think we'll get. After that things get interesting or more accurately scary. Be careful about staying in anything for too long.
Surprised the SPX didn't drop a bit lower yesterday and fill some gaps. I think we could still get that next week, but look at my boy Russell go. Up 200BPS already!
I was gonna post something about link in the btc thread. Kinda lazy though, but bump that thread if you're interested
You might like this one.
US money supply is -3.5% down which is well above the norm of -1%-1.5% post the Great Depression.
This has been a 10mth drawdown when history is a couple of months.
Money supply will uptick before economy bottoms. General upticks are +1.5%. We have a +0.2% which is not something to salivate over. QE was +8% in its first month.
Fed forecast sees GDP to Hades by year end but inflation sticky. Fed has planned No rate cuts before year end at the moment vs market saying -1%.
Last chart is US jobless claims. During the GFC we saw M2 begin a rapid uptick which 1-2 months later the S&P began its final leg down and jobless claims found its peak. This is what I am looking for. The money supply will fire up rapidly before we bottom and when we see that happen I’d say that’s when you will see your leg down happen.
Short recessions are 2 quarters. Rate cuts happen during a recession so the Fed timing of February is either recession in Q4-Q1 or Q1-Q2. It’s likely the US govt budget will be delivered in March 2024.
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You might like this one.
US money supply is -3.5% down which is well above the norm of -1%-1.5% post the Great Depression.
This has been a 10mth drawdown when history is a couple of months.
Money supply will uptick before economy bottoms. General upticks are +1.5%. We have a +0.2% which is not something to salivate over. QE was +8% in its first month.
Fed forecast sees GDP to Hades by year end but inflation sticky. Fed has planned No rate cuts before year end at the moment vs market saying -1%.
Last chart is US jobless claims. During the GFC we saw M2 begin a rapid uptick which 1-2 months later the S&P began its final leg down and jobless claims found its peak. This is what I am looking for. The money supply will fire up rapidly before we bottom and when we see that happen I’d say that’s when you will see your leg down happen.
Short recessions are 2 quarters. Rate cuts happen during a recession so the Fed timing of February is either recession in Q4-Q1 or Q1-Q2. It’s likely the US govt budget will be delivered in March 2024.
Nice with regards to indicators, not at the prospect of a recession ;D
The OPEC cuts to oil production is potentially another recession indicator, but naturally the cuts are getting politicized in an attempt to divert attention.
Production was cut a few months before the 1990 and 2001 recessions. Also a few months into the 2008 one. Makes sense to decrease production if they're expecting less consumption because of a looming recession. Obviously happened with Covid recession too.
Eye balling it
1990 Feb cuts, lead to SPX Oct 1990 bottom but we got a higher low in Jan. So 8-12 months approx lag.
2000 Oct cuts lead to SPX Oct 2002 bottom. 24 months approx (OPEC ramped up in May 2001 but cut again a few months later probably 9/11 related)
2008 June cuts lead to SPX March 2009 bottom. 9 months approx.
The more compelling stat is that on those 3 occasions the recession was over around 12 months after OPEC cuts had started which would line up with around the end of March 2024 :o
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Nice with regards to indicators, not at the prospect of a recession ;D
The OPEC cuts to oil production is potentially another recession indicator, but naturally the cuts are getting politicized in an attempt to divert attention.
Production was cut a few months before the 1990 and 2001 recessions. Also a few months into the 2008 one. Makes sense to decrease production if they're expecting less consumption because of a looming recession. Obviously happened with Covid recession too.
Eye balling it
1990 Feb cuts, lead to SPX Oct 1990 bottom but we got a higher low in Jan. So 8-12 months approx lag.
2000 Oct cuts lead to SPX Oct 2002 bottom. 24 months approx (OPEC ramped up in May 2001 but cut again a few months later probably 9/11 related)
2008 June cuts lead to SPX March 2009 bottom. 9 months approx.
The more compelling stat is that on those 3 occasions the recession was over around 12 months after OPEC cuts had started which would line up with around the end of March 2024 :o
FYI I closed my silver mining position +18%. I took your advice and at that level of return on a good chunk of capital there is no need to be risk on with VIX at 19s 👀
It’s always good to get to similar conclusions using independent methods :D
Looking at recessions and rate movements:
2020 - rates already at lows
2007 - cut 0.25% before 1st Qtr of recession
2000 - cut in 1st Qtr of recession
1989 - 0.25% cut in Qtr before recession
Here is where things get messed up:
1981 - increased in 1st Qtr of recession then cut in 2nd Qtr of recession
1979 - increased 0.25% in 1st Qtr of recession, increased 1% 2nd Qtr of recession, rose every qtr until cuts in 5th Qtr 👀
1973 - cut in 1st Qtr of recession held, increased 3% in 3rd qtr, increased 1% in 2nd qtr before cutting
1969 - increased in 1st and 2nd qtr of recession. Cuts in 3rd qtr of recession
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(https://images.etsytees.com/2022/06/going-down-like-the-economy-biden-falling-bicycle-shirt-White-Women.jpg)
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FYI I closed my silver mining position +18%. I took your advice and at that level of return on a good chunk of capital there is no need to be risk on with VIX at 19s 👀
It’s always good to get to similar conclusions using independent methods :D
Looking at recessions and rate movements:
2020 - rates already at lows
2007 - cut 0.25% before 1st Qtr of recession
2000 - cut in 1st Qtr of recession
1989 - 0.25% cut in Qtr before recession
Here is where things get messed up:
1981 - increased in 1st Qtr of recession then cut in 2nd Qtr of recession
1979 - increased 0.25% in 1st Qtr of recession, increased 1% 2nd Qtr of recession, rose every qtr until cuts in 5th Qtr 👀
1973 - cut in 1st Qtr of recession held, increased 3% in 3rd qtr, increased 1% in 2nd qtr before cutting
1969 - increased in 1st and 2nd qtr of recession. Cuts in 3rd qtr of recession
I enjoy reading you and Flex's posts.
You say similar things to my good friend who is a savant at investing and market tracking.
Interesting times ahead.
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I enjoy reading you and Flex's posts.
You say similar things to my good friend who is a savant at investing and market tracking.
Interesting times ahead.
Flex and Thin Lizzy are very good to listen to. Very smart guys. I’m more an out of control annoying hyper retard but I don’t get myself wrecked. Just note talking ideas is mere talk and doesn’t mean I act on every single thing I say. Only fight when you think you have an advantage.
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Flex and Thin Lizzy are very good to listen to. Very smart guys. I’m more an out of control annoying hyper retard but I don’t get myself wrecked. Just note talking ideas is mere talk and doesn’t mean I act on every single thing I say. Only fight when you think you have an advantage.
I appreciate the comments.
It makes sense to me from a certain perspective.
I enjoy reading multiple platforms of info.
Having an open platform is important.
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I appreciate the comments.
It makes sense to me from a certain perspective.
I enjoy reading multiple platforms of info.
Having an open platform is important.
Agree. I like hearing a variety of takes on every situation. Dumb money and smart money takes, we can learn from everyone.
There are a fair number of other guys on here who could provide valuable insights, but for whatever reason prefer not to.
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Ape’d in fairly hard today. This is with my large capital base.
10% capital in Sugar 👀
I wanted to move into junior silver miners but they aren’t available to me. So I instead took 50% of my capital into a large fund that manages metals. Should be a no brainer for them given things are in their favour.
I really want wood futures but it’s not available. Looking at wood producers most here are shit it seems so I have to find something else for 30%.
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You might like this one.
US money supply is -3.5% down which is well above the norm of -1%-1.5% post the Great Depression.
This has been a 10mth drawdown when history is a couple of months.
Money supply will uptick before economy bottoms. General upticks are +1.5%. We have a +0.2% which is not something to salivate over. QE was +8% in its first month.
Fed forecast sees GDP to Hades by year end but inflation sticky. Fed has planned No rate cuts before year end at the moment vs market saying -1%.
Last chart is US jobless claims. During the GFC we saw M2 begin a rapid uptick which 1-2 months later the S&P began its final leg down and jobless claims found its peak. This is what I am looking for. The money supply will fire up rapidly before we bottom and when we see that happen I’d say that’s when you will see your leg down happen.
Short recessions are 2 quarters. Rate cuts happen during a recession so the Fed timing of February is either recession in Q4-Q1 or Q1-Q2. It’s likely the US govt budget will be delivered in March 2024.
Interesting, unemployment is what is baffling me most at this point compared to historical
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Interesting, unemployment is what is baffling me most at this point compared to historical
Just refilling jobs lost during the shutdown.
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Interesting, unemployment is what is baffling me most at this point compared to historical
I had to figure all this out in a short span of the pandemic so I get at times you feel like your are doing circles.
Everything has lag in it but it’s super long lag which is why things can often feel off or confusing.
It’s actually very, very easy to run fiscal and monetary policy at a flat 2%. It’s not done though because then there wouldnt be opportunities. It’s why average Joe is always saying how shit central bankers are, don’t realise it’s done on purpose.
Rates are used to help create cycles which create opportunities. Unemployment is at the end of the tightening phase resulting from an overtighten which then allows an over loosening.
There is a lot of overlap in the lag which is what wrecks people. For example today it’s non-stop crash and burn……. Yet the reality is likely what I have posted before about expecting a mad run up in equities towards the end of the year. It’s just lag.
July 2019 last rate peak before cut. S&P sold off Jan 2020 and into the pandemic.
Mar 2007 unemployment cracked, July 2007 last rate peak before cut. S&P sold off October 2007.
Sept 1998 last rate peak before cut….S&P dipped in July but rallied through to Sep 2000 so what ended up happening was rates ran straight back up and continued higher even even after the S&P started to crash in September 2000 (rates peaked in December). Unemployment cracked December. This was to send the message to not fuck with us (the Fed).
Now, while unemployment cracks close to peak rates, the rate cycle actually begins 1yr+ in advance. Hence its overtightened by not factoring in lag ;)
Today while we are in the last leg for equities we are at the beginning for liquidity which is why I took positions in metals and sugar which I will hold out into 2024 most likely.
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Interesting, unemployment is what is baffling me most at this point compared to historical
They (BLS) are lying about everything. This is the Wile E. Coyote moment before the drop. The rate increases take a while to show up. Businesses are preparing...they always underestimate the survival instincts of small business people that don't have a fed safety net.
" last week claims was 246K revised from 198K
the week before that was 247K revised from 191K
the week before that was 230K revised from 192K "
(https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfmC59F.jpg?itok=MZaFUWgn)
https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/jobless-claims-explode-higher-after-bls-revisions-tech-layoffs-2001-pace
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China have just sent it. This is their manufacturing index. China going to suck up every commodity known to man kind.
And the US fucked over Saudi oil and as a result had production cut and no SPR refill lol.
In a nutshell this is the 2nd wave 👋
2024 is going to be a hoot.
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Today while we are in the last leg for equities we are at the beginning for liquidity which is why I took positions in metals and sugar which I will hold out into 2024 most likely.
What do you mean exactly by the beginning of liquidity?
The chart below shows the March injection of liquidity which was acting in a similar way to QE (risk on). It takes a few weeks for it to show up in the indices, but you can see the liquidity is already dropping off. So we may get a few more weeks of upwards price action in the indices (4200-4300) and then that drop off in liquidity starts hitting the market (Indices go sideways/go back down)
What might happen near the end stages of all this is a sell off of in risk on assets and a move into recession stocks and assets. Is that what you meant by "beginning of liquidity" for metals and sugar? (plus China buying)
Just gonna repeat what I said a few weeks ago. Anyone thinking the bull market is back on and we'll hit a double to thanks to "QE" is gonna be very disappointed
(https://wolfstreet.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/US-Fed-Balance-sheet-2023-04-06-total-assets-detail.png)
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What do you mean exactly by the beginning of liquidity?
The chart below shows the March injection of liquidity which was acting in a similar way to QE (risk on). It takes a few weeks for it to show up in the indices, but you can see the liquidity is already dropping off. So we may get a few more weeks of upwards price action in the indices (4200-4300) and then that drop off in liquidity starts hitting the market (Indices go sideways/go back down)
What might happen near the end stages of all this is a sell off of in risk on assets and a move into recession stocks and assets. Is that what you meant by "beginning of liquidity" for metals and sugar? (plus China buying)
Just gonna repeat what I said a few weeks ago. Anyone thinking the bull market is back on and we'll hit a double to thanks to "QE" is gonna be very disappointed
(https://wolfstreet.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/US-Fed-Balance-sheet-2023-04-06-total-assets-detail.png)
It took a year for the Fed to sell off 0.8T and a month to add 0.4T :D It didn't 'act like QE', the markets acted as if it was the same as QE and got all giddy. Hence for many months i have held the stance that the markets will misjudge things and get it horribly wrong but not before they bid it up.
By liquidity i mean what creates bottoms. Had the Fed not stepped in to backstop the banks you would have seen your S&P @ 3,000 right then and there. This also tells us the Fed does not want to crash the markets because that was their opportunity.
Why i posted the tightening phases is because markets rally right up until they can't anymore which is generally when rates are cut. That is the breaking point. Why we haven't seen a sell off is because we are not at breaking point. By my mind, i think November best case otherwise it's Q1 sometime. That's 8 months of rallying....... by then we likely will be higher than 4,800 meaning the sell off might not go lower than the 3,500 people already had.
Why liquidity flows in now is because of the huge lag. So when you look at my timing of Nov-Feb you see why liquidity is flowing in already which is to catch the economy and form a bottom when it falls off a cliff. Metals will be a first mover. I'm into Sugar because it was really the only raw food offered in my fund. Basically i'm trying to get as close as possible to raw materials because that is what will bounce first.
The Fed has to fire up liquidity in a big way from now out to early next year whether they like it or not. China firing up demand and Europe being their largest trade partner coupled with dealings in EUR, this is the big 'fuck you' from China because they know it forces money out of the US, weakens the USD and forces the Fed to step in to fill gaps.
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It took a year for the Fed to sell off 0.8T and a month to add 0.4T :D It didn't 'act like QE', the markets acted as if it was the same as QE and got all giddy. Hence for many months i have held the stance that the markets will misjudge things and get it horribly wrong but not before they bid it up.
By liquidity i mean what creates bottoms. Had the Fed not stepped in to backstop the banks you would have seen your S&P @ 3,000 right then and there. This also tells us the Fed does not want to crash the markets because that was their opportunity.
Why i posted the tightening phases is because markets rally right up until they can't anymore which is generally when rates are cut. That is the breaking point. Why we haven't seen a sell off is because we are not at breaking point. By my mind, i think November best case otherwise it's Q1 sometime. That's 8 months of rallying....... by then we likely will be higher than 4,800 meaning the sell off might not go lower than the 3,500 people already had.
Why liquidity flows in now is because of the huge lag. So when you look at my timing of Nov-Feb you see why liquidity is flowing in already which is to catch the economy and form a bottom when it falls off a cliff. Metals will be a first mover. I'm into Sugar because it was really the only raw food offered in my fund. Basically i'm trying to get as close as possible to raw materials because that is what will bounce first.
The Fed has to fire up liquidity in a big way from now out to early next year whether they like it or not. China firing up demand and Europe being their largest trade partner coupled with dealings in EUR, this is the big 'fuck you' from China because they know it forces money out of the US, weakens the USD and forces the Fed to step in to fill gaps.
There was no Large Scale Asset Purchase, which is QE, but the injection of liquidity (FED to Banks then Depositors make withdrawals, then deposit to new banks, then Direct and indirect purchase of assets) acted in the same way as QE. Net new $ was printed by FED.
Withdrawing FED "printed" money from one bank and depositing it to another, results in the new bank having to purchase securities to back those new deposits, so this "acted like" QE. The market didn't go up just because people got giddy, it went up because people realised the mechanism I've just tried to explain and then got giddy.
Now with the Fed balance sheet and liquidity dropping it will move in the same way as QT. The same people who understood the mechanism explained above are all ready to pull the trigger and sell everything the bought in March. They followed liquidity injection up and are gonna follow it down. They aren't moving the markets, they are just helping to increase the size of the move.
It would make no sense to let the banks crash and then let them take the markets out. Other than a few outliers, most banks were strong. They can let things crash later without risking banks.
Obviously it's just my opinion, but going forward I'll be ignoring everything that happens from March until end April. Think of it as a blip and normal service will resume. Another 0.25% rate raise in May, more chop chop and then the real move in 2024.
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Sorry I’m not using my words well.
Global liquidity has increased.
DXY is going to fall as the flow goes outside of the US. It will break to the downside regardless of any short term events that might trigger a sell off.
Like an earlier post, I had no faith when Bitcoin was following the S&P. It is now following liquidity and now I have faith.
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Sorry I’m not using my words well.
Global liquidity has increased.
DXY is going to fall as the flow goes outside of the US. It will break to the downside regardless of any short term events that might trigger a sell off.
Like an earlier post, I had no faith when Bitcoin was following the S&P. It is now following liquidity and now I have faith.
I think we disagree on what's going to happen with the US markets and the dollar. DXY imo has hit it or is close to hitting it's low for a while.
Not trying to talk you out of your position though because I think we could still both be right.
I have an interesting post regarding the JPM collar, liquidity and the prices of the markets I'll put up later.
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The market doesn't always follow the JPM collar. Typically it's not a great indicator as there are significant deviations from it, but it's 6 for 6 in the chart at the bottom. The most likely reason for this is that with liquidity draining from the market, the collar ranges act like magnets for whatever liquidity remains.
Here are the JPM collar SPX levels for the next quarter (30th June)
4320
3885
3280
If the trend continues then it's possible we bounce between 2 of those levels at some point over the next 3 months and end the quarter around 3885.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fs5aJ7jXsAAshbs?format=jpg)
Obviously I'm biased with this as I've been using it for 6 months to help me time my moves and it hasn't failed me. I'll keep using it until it stops working or maybe until we get a pivot.
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I always listen to what you say otherwise I’d always believe I am right.
Metals looked like retail FOMO so I exited today with a +3% day move. I’m just in sugar for now.
I looked at my data and then Put together the overlay.
DXY with inflation (orange) and rates (blue). I dumb this right down for me.
*Rates bottom and DXY bottoms pretty much on or after
*Rates after bottoming move up and DXY begins an uptrend
*1984 DXY peaked when rates peaked
*1989 DXY peaked when rates peaked
*2000 DXY peaked when rates peaked
*2005 DXY peaked 6 months before rates peaked
*2019 DXY peaked and arguably trended sideways 6mths post rates peak
*Sep 2022 DXY peaked and 7 months later we are getting to May which I have as the rates peak (1 more hike).
Going from the above if you think the DXY goes higher then rates would need to continue increasing well past the 5% mark in order to cause the DXY to flip the other way.
Thoughts?
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I always listen to what you say otherwise I’d always believe I am right.
Metals looked like retail FOMO so I exited today with a +3% day move. I’m just in sugar for now.
I looked at my data and then Put together the overlay.
DXY with inflation (orange) and rates (blue). I dumb this right down for me.
*Rates bottom and DXY bottoms pretty much on or after
*Rates after bottoming move up and DXY begins an uptrend
*1984 DXY peaked when rates peaked
*1989 DXY peaked when rates peaked
*2000 DXY peaked when rates peaked
*2005 DXY peaked 6 months before rates peaked
*2019 DXY peaked and arguably trended sideways 6mths post rates peak
*Sep 2022 DXY peaked and 7 months later we are getting to May which I have as the rates peak (1 more hike).
Going from the above if you think the DXY goes higher then rates would need to continue increasing well past the 5% mark in order to cause the DXY to flip the other way.
Thoughts?
Remember before SVB hit the shitter a 0.50% rate rise in March was looking likely. Now that banks have that FED backstop would you say banks were weaker or stronger against any possible future market turmoil? Stronger right?
So what's different with the markets from pre SVB March and now? Nothing really other than banks are now actually more secure. The FED are free to keep doing what they need to do. JPowell has been been saying that for more than a year. Yes, they have a history of gaslighting everyone, but this time market participants have done it to themselves.
Also everyone is heading for the exit with Gold right now and typically that has a negative correlation with the DXY. That's also why I thought the bottom was close for it. Gold is approaching a resistance it's failed at twice before and it typically struggles at resistance. Gold back at 1940 would confirm another rejection. CPI tomorrow could be a catalyst.
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BBC has an article today about interest rates being likely to drop significantly. Will this be a drop affecting European markets or the world in general? How does this fit the narrative in regards to this thread?
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BBC has an article today about interest rates being likely to drop significantly. Will this be a drop affecting European markets or the world in general? How does this fit the narrative in regards to this thread?
Read the article and it's from an IMF blog and it was for the US and Europe.
With regards to this thread the FEDs goal is to crush inflation and bring it down to 2%. Interest rates typically rise and fall with inflation. I guess the IMF are saying the FED will be successful with their goal.
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Remember before SVB hit the shitter a 0.50% rate rise in March was looking likely. Now that banks have that FED backstop would you say banks were weaker or stronger against any possible future market turmoil? Stronger right?
So what's different with the markets from pre SVB March and now? Nothing really other than banks are now actually more secure. The FED are free to keep doing what they need to do. JPowell has been been saying that for more than a year. Yes, they have a history of gaslighting everyone, but this time market participants have done it to themselves.
Also everyone is heading for the exit with Gold right now and typically that has a negative correlation with the DXY. That's also why I thought the bottom was close for it. Gold is approaching a resistance it's failed at twice before and it typically struggles at resistance. Gold back at 1940 would confirm another rejection. CPI tomorrow could be a catalyst.
Fed has been way more accurate on rates than the market. The market refused to believe May would be a hike and only this past week has gone from a 0% chance to a 60% chance of a 0.25%.
My answer would be ‘some’ banks are stronger. I am sure they will allow certain small banks to fall over as conditions tighten over the coming 6 months.
Metals are inverse to DXY yes which is why when I saw the DXY begin to stabilise I exited my
Original silver miner position.
The DXY has formed a double bottom. When it did this in 2021 it went from 90 to 114. This conflicts with my last post which shows a clear history of DXY and rate peaks.
If I try and be the best retard I can be, I see the DXY doing a historic trend of front running peak rates. History shows a 6mth lead is ok. However by May we will be 8-9 months ahead of peak rates which is a first. Then we have the DXY double bottom at strong support and on a fib band. History shows double bottoms at those positions leads to reversal and an uptrend……
Therefore if the puzzle above isn’t fitting together it makes me believe rates are wrong and by this I mean May can’t be peak rates. It must mean 6%-7% rate peak is more correct which would also mean the DXY has not yet hit its peak and that it must go higher than the previous 114 👀
This would mean the metal trade is too early and to your point this is an exit on gold. But then you would also need to agree the DXY is going to reverse the downward trend over the next 3-6 months.
The DXY is my only pain point right now because it stopped falling which is why I’m nervous to chasing metals again. I think I was probably annoyed I sold early and am trying to convince myself to chase but now reading your posts and looking at it like a retard I’m kinda saying it’s all going to reverse.
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Fed has been way more accurate on rates than the market. The market refused to believe May would be a hike and only this past week has gone from a 0% chance to a 60% chance of a 0.25%.
My answer would be ‘some’ banks are stronger. I am sure they will allow certain small banks to fall over as conditions tighten over the coming 6 months.
Metals are inverse to DXY yes which is why when I saw the DXY begin to stabilise I exited my
Original silver miner position.
The DXY has formed a double bottom. When it did this in 2021 it went from 90 to 114. This conflicts with my last post which shows a clear history of DXY and rate peaks.
If I try and be the best retard I can be, I see the DXY doing a historic trend of front running peak rates. History shows a 6mth lead is ok. However by May we will be 8-9 months ahead of peak rates which is a first. Then we have the DXY double bottom at strong support and on a fib band. History shows double bottoms at those positions leads to reversal and an uptrend……
Therefore if the puzzle above isn’t fitting together it makes me believe rates are wrong and by this I mean May can’t be peak rates. It must mean 6%-7% rate peak is more correct which would also mean the DXY has not yet hit its peak and that it must go higher than the previous 114 👀
This would mean the metal trade is too early and to your point this is an exit on gold. But then you would also need to agree the DXY is going to reverse the downward trend over the next 3-6 months.
The DXY is my only pain point right now because it stopped falling which is why I’m nervous to chasing metals again. I think I was probably annoyed I sold early and am trying to convince myself to chase but now reading your posts and looking at it like a retard I’m kinda saying it’s all going to reverse.
I've been saying with a high degree confidence that they would continue rate raises even after SVB and the banking turmoil when the markets gave it no chance. It's not because I'm some kinda genius, I've just listened to what JPowell has said and haven't tried to second guess the FED.
So it 0.25% in May, they hold, but maybe unemployment, jobs data etc in the summer isn't where they want it so a couple more rate rises, or they just carry on with another 0.25% in June. We'll get a better idea this week.
Regarding my thoughts on DXY from a month back
Recession/high unemployment in early 2024, DXY over 110 and then the money printer eventually fires up to take the markets to new ATH. Just gotta remember the markets will probably bottom several months after a FED pivot.
My angle is only focused on the US though. China and the rest of the world could be buying up gold and metals. I haven't paid much attention to it, that's why I said we could both be right, but as a trading strategy you never want to buy when something is at resistance, buy at support. So even if you miss a move on metals you don't need to beat yourself up over it as you stuck to the more profitable strategy. You still have some time though to see which way the market turns and then make your move. If 10 year goes up after CPI, it's over for gold.
Also more on my take on US markets. Hedefunds are net short in a big way right now. At levels which typically line up with a decent drop in the market. It's looking like a Jackson Hole set up again.
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Some gold maxies predict gold to be above 20k
;D
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I've been saying with a high degree confidence that they would continue rate raises even after SVB and the banking turmoil when the markets gave it no chance. It's not because I'm some kinda genius, I've just listened to what JPowell has said and haven't tried to second guess the FED.
So it 0.25% in May, they hold, but maybe unemployment, jobs data etc in the summer isn't where they want it so a couple more rate rises, or they just carry on with another 0.25% in June. We'll get a better idea this week.
Regarding my thoughts on DXY from a month back
My angle is only focused on the US though. China and the rest of the world could be buying up gold and metals. I haven't paid much attention to it, that's why I said we could both be right, but as a trading strategy you never want to buy when something is at resistance, buy at support. So even if you miss a move on metals you don't need to beat yourself up over it as you stuck to a winning strategy. You still have some time though to see which way the market turns and then jump in.
Also more on my take on US markets. Hedefunds are net short in a big way right now. At levels which typically line up with a decent drop in the market. It's looking like a Jackson Hole set up again.
Thanks for the responses.
Makes sense and now I see why the DXY has suddenly held support. when the Fed pivots it will be a pivot higher. Might need a 6% rate afterall.
I took my miners position about 6 weeks ago and chart looked much cooler then. It is overheating now on daily and weekly. I’ll keep safe and avoid going in.
My sugar position gained +3% today and looks clean to continue moving north for a bit.
I saw the JH setup in a post on my feed. Apparently highly reliable just before a massive dump as you suggest. Oil should plummet if this plays out, you thinking of taking energy futures later on?
I’ll be keeping an eye on the DXY. If we see a break out Below 101 it could fall towards the 96 range.
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Core CPI still elevated so 0.25% in May looks even more certain, although stagflation looks to have entered the chat now.
With regards to DXY and gold I forgot to mention the US10 year. It needs to go down then gold can go up. Dropping below 3.3% sends gold up. It made a move for it after CPI numbers, but bounced straight back up. So basically more resistance against gold moving higher.
I do have some views on oil I'll post later. I'm already in on Nat gas, but that was purely based on technicals and a double bottom.
I know nothing about Sugar futures, but that move has been crazy. Hope it keeps printing for you.
*Oil initially went up with CPI and hit resistance. If it drops down to 80 from here in the next week or so then it's a potential short. Breaks resistance then it's a long. My bias is towards shorting, but I'll wait and okay with missing any move here.
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Core CPI still elevated so 0.25% in May looks even more certain, although stagflation looks to have entered the chat now.
With regards to DXY and gold I forgot to mention the US10 year. It needs to go down then gold can go up. Dropping below 3.3% sends gold up. It made a move for it after CPI numbers, but bounced straight back up. So basically more resistance against gold moving higher.
I do have some views on oil I'll post later. I'm already in on Nat gas, but that was purely based on technicals and a double bottom.
I know nothing about Sugar futures, but that move has been crazy. Hope it keeps printing for you.
*Oil initially went up with CPI and hit resistance. If it drops down to 80 from here in the next week or so then it's a potential short. Breaks resistance then it's a long. My bias is towards shorting, but I'll wait and okay with missing any move here.
Interesting re the 10Y. in inflationary cycles I did see the 10Y make multiple peaks before it would peak. So it’s fair to suggest just because we see a pullback now doesn’t mean we have hit the peak peak of the first wave.
I have been watching Nat Gas for a while. Looks like a solid entry but I can’t get futures otherwise I’d already be in position. we have nat gas companies here but it’s all moved up Already so it’s not really worth me jumping into.
Silver miners down here have gone FOMO spastic. Daily is full blown RSI blow off territory now and the price chart is gapping up overnight. It’s to risky to enter most stuff now. It looks like a crypto shitcoin down here lol. It’ll revert for sure over the coming weeks so I’ll wait and see how it looks then.
Sugar is not a huge position for me whereas silver was. it’s in a company rather than futures so it has some space to run for a while.
Oil is interesting. Short term who the fuck knows but ultimately demand has to get crushed and oil will go with it. For oil look at the 60-70-80 energy shock period as it’s what lies ahead. My model has us in the 60s which is before the first recession of 1970-71. You can see the second inflation leg from 1973 and what happens next. It’s fucked up lol.
Coal futures daily and weekly looks solid like nat gas. Weekly suggests it could be the start of a long term run up.
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I think seeing the silver miner trade here locally shows just how much money is sitting on the sidelines.
Then you consider oil everyone went long, lumber looks primed for a long, Nat Gas looks prime for a long and these would trigger inflation to go up.
It’s Really suggests rates have to keep going up in order to prevent commodities ripping skyward and causing inflation to Run upwards again.
When you look at the 10Y in the late 60s there was multiple peaks before the actual true peak.
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Interesting re the 10Y. in inflationary cycles I did see the 10Y make multiple peaks before it would peak. So it’s fair to suggest just because we see a pullback now doesn’t mean we have hit the peak peak of the first wave.
I have been watching Nat Gas for a while. Looks like a solid entry but I can’t get futures otherwise I’d already be in position. we have nat gas companies here but it’s all moved up Already so it’s not really worth me jumping into.
Silver miners down here have gone FOMO spastic. Daily is full blown RSI blow off territory now and the price chart is gapping up overnight. It’s to risky to enter most stuff now. It looks like a crypto shitcoin down here lol. It’ll revert for sure over the coming weeks so I’ll wait and see how it looks then.
Sugar is not a huge position for me whereas silver was. it’s in a company rather than futures so it has some space to run for a while.
Oil is interesting. Short term who the fuck knows but ultimately demand has to get crushed and oil will go with it. For oil look at the 60-70-80 energy shock period as it’s what lies ahead. My model has us in the 60s which is before the first recession of 1970-71. You can see the second inflation leg from 1973 and what happens next. It’s fucked up lol.
Coal futures daily and weekly looks solid like nat gas. Weekly suggests it could be the start of a long term run up.
I'm sure you can get etoro and similar trading apps. They have horrible spread/fees system but that also has a way of stopping you from over trading. Once you're in long on something you really like you just hold until you get decent returns, otherwise you're throwing away money on fees.
The FED minutes is already talking about a recession, meanwhile Biden is saying no recession and everything is great. I'm not second guessing the FED so my moves are pretty predictable. I will wait for the SPX to hit one of the JPM colour targets (ideally 4300ish) and start shorting. Took a small long on DXY today at support though.
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I've been saying with a high degree confidence that they would continue rate raises even after SVB and the banking turmoil when the markets gave it no chance. It's not because I'm some kinda genius, I've just listened to what JPowell has said and haven't tried to second guess the FED.
So it 0.25% in May, they hold, but maybe unemployment, jobs data etc in the summer isn't where they want it so a couple more rate rises, or they just carry on with another 0.25% in June. We'll get a better idea this week.
Market is pretty much setting things up as I said
FED'S WALLER: RECENT NUMBERS INDICATE THE FED HASN'T MADE MUCH PROGRESS TOWARDS ITS INFLATION GOAL, AND RATES NEED TO INCREASE EVEN HIGHER.
FED'S WALLER: LONGER THAN EXPECTED BY THE MARKETS, MONETARY POLICY WILL NEED TO REMAIN STRICT FOR A "SUBSTANTIAL" AMOUNT OF TIME.
JPMORGAN CEO SAYS PEOPLE NEED TO BE PREPARED FOR HIGHER RATES FOR LONGER
BLACKROCK CEO FINK: I SEE TWO TO THREE MORE FED RATE INCREASES.
Price action since the markets topped at the end of 2021 has been all about liquidity. Everything else is just narrative and noise.
QQQ (orange) vs net liquidity (blue)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FtnOoHfWwAA9tNv?format=png&name=4096x4096)
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Market is pretty much setting things up as I said
Price action since the markets topped at the end of 2021 has been all about liquidity. Everything else is just narrative and noise.
QQQ (orange) vs net liquidity (blue)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FtnOoHfWwAA9tNv?format=png&name=4096x4096)
If the answer is actually 7% rate target then bond market is going to have a come to Jesus moment as they are all positioned for a recession with a crushed inflation rate.
If 7% is the target then it’s long DXY, long Energy, short silver/gold. This would also mean whatever highs we had in DXY and oil won’t be the actual high so oil target is >130.
Oil production just got cut by Saudis after US said they would buy to refill SPR which they didn’t do. So Saudis cut production based on No US bid and recession estimate, US then turns around and restarts inflationary policy which causes an energy and supply crunch mkii 🤔
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If the answer is actually 7% rate target then bond market is going to have a come to Jesus moment as they are all positioned for a recession with a crushed inflation rate.
I was warning about this happening a month ago
If there isn't a 50 bps rate hike and nothing breaks then markets could have a brief rally, but it's just delaying the inevitable.
I'm not saying anything new here. I'm basically just repeating myself now
If 7% is the target then it’s long DXY, long Energy, short silver/gold. This would also mean whatever highs we had in DXY and oil won’t be the actual high so oil target is >130.
The market is tightly controlled right now so it's unlikely we'll get higher highs or lower lows in anything for 2023 (assuming no black swan like China/Taiwan) I see DXY going higher than 110 eventually, but not by much.
10yr appears to have bottomed, so gold is a fade for me (no need to touch it with a DXY long) I expect crypto to top out in May thanks to China money. Gold could do the same for the same reason, but I haven't really looked too much into that.
Don't have a price forecast, but I got DXY lows for the year in mid/late April, stocks markets peaking in May and tech earnings then crashing everything. I would expect for the most part that BTC will follow. So bitcoin mini cycle top in May followed by a June low
More of me saying the same thing weeks ago
The sideways equity chop is where I'm pretty much at right now and for the foreseeable future. Maybe when something breaks they start stimmy
Oil production just got cut by Saudis after US said they would buy to refill SPR which they didn’t do. So Saudis cut production based on No US bid and recession estimate, US then turns around and restarts inflationary policy which causes an energy and supply crunch mkii 🤔
The whole news cycle was Saudi and other OPEC countries giving the US a big Fuck U. Inflation was going up anyway, now they'll have someone to blame. Oil eventually heads down, hard to say when though so I'm not rushing to get involved there.
Again I'm not saying anything new
The OPEC cuts to oil production is potentially another recession indicator, but naturally the cuts are getting politicized in an attempt to divert attention.
Larry Fink has the same thesis as me only 6 weeks later. Again it's not cos I'm some stock market guru, I just eventually figured out what news to listen and what to fade.
BlackRock CEO Larry Fink said the U.S. could skirt a recession this year, "I'm not sure we're going to have a recession in 2023, we may have it in early 24... inflation is going to be stickier for longer."
Recession/high unemployment in early 2024, DXY over 110 and then the money printer eventually fires up to take the markets to new ATH. Just gotta remember the markets will probably bottom several months after a FED pivot.
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FED'S BULLARD: BECAUSE THERE HASN'T BEEN MUCH DISCERNIBLE PROGRESS ON INFLATION, INTEREST RATES MUST CONTINUE TO RISE
FED'S BULLARD: I STILL SEE ADEQUATELY RESTRICTIVE POLICY RATE AT 5.50%-5.75% RANGE. BIAS TO HOLD FOR LONGER UNTIL INFLATION CONTAINED.
Shorts on the main indices today. Liquidity drying up. Downwards for the rest of April and possibly early May.
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FED'S BULLARD: BECAUSE THERE HASN'T BEEN MUCH DISCERNIBLE PROGRESS ON INFLATION, INTEREST RATES MUST CONTINUE TO RISE
FED'S BULLARD: I STILL SEE ADEQUATELY RESTRICTIVE POLICY RATE AT 5.50%-5.75% RANGE. BIAS TO HOLD FOR LONGER UNTIL INFLATION CONTAINED.
Shorts on the main indices today. Liquidity drying up. Downwards for the rest of April and possibly early May.
Market has priced in rate cuts. They don’t believe the Fed or ECB. Maybe you get your range low 3,800?
Are ECB in a ‘soft war’ with the US via rates? If ECB signal 5.75% the US surely wants to be higher to reduce risk of capital outflow?
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Market has priced in rate cuts. They don’t believe the Fed or ECB. Maybe you get your range low 3,800?
Are ECB in a ‘soft war’ with the US via rates? If ECB signal 5.75% the US surely wants to be higher to reduce risk of capital outflow?
May could still be bullish for the markets. Let's see what they do at the FED meeting. I'm still open to either eventually tapping either 4300/4350 or 3850/90 by end of June, maybe even both. I'll SHORT at 4300ish, LONG 3900ish (obviously hoping we tap 3900 in the next few weeks)
My 3800 low would be for very late 2023 or early 2024 as part of a successful soft landing.
I think the ECB and the FED are basically working together with the FED acting as the senior partner. That was pretty clear at least with the Credit Suisse and BNP aftermath.
UK inflation print today over 10% (expected in the single digits) should be a wake up call for everyone else
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(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FuHSB6SXsAEe7LJ?format=jpg&name=900x900)
Prediction for the markets for the next couple of weeks and May. Bulls get trapped or maybe even flip bear. Fed meeting in May might even be hawkish adding to the bear sentiment. Peak bear mode is engaged by the markets.
0DTE options pile in at the bottom in early/mid May and launch everything skywards like one of Elons rocket, and just like his rocket it blows up and crashes back down to Earth in June.
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(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FuHSB6SXsAEe7LJ?format=jpg&name=900x900)
Prediction for the markets for the next couple of weeks and May. Bulls get trapped or maybe even flip bear. Fed meeting in May might even be hawkish adding to the bear sentiment. Peak bear mode is engaged by the markets.
0DTE options pile in at the bottom in early/mid May and launch everything skywards like one of Elons rocket, and just like his rocket it blows up and crashes back down to Earth in June.
Sold my sugar position, just over 10% so I’m pretty happy to take it and run.
It isn’t that things can’t go higher but it’s that the daily ramped so hard on metals and other things for the past 4 weeks it’s pure parabola. I look at the weekly and the pullback point on a bunch of these things is still another 15% lower than today.
DXY looks double bottomed on the weekly. This was always my biggest worry for this recent rallly move.
FOMC 3rd May. It’ll be +0.25%
3rd May / 5th May / 10th May apparently the key dates for volatility which is what you said above about early May taking lows and then rally upwards.
It feels a tad dangerous at the moment. I know I’m likely looking for a short term pullback and a bounce that fails like you suggest. Rising DXY kills so many things I was looking at.
What are you eyeing if you were to buy a pullback mid May?
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Sold my sugar position, just over 10% so I’m pretty happy to take it and run.
It isn’t that things can’t go higher but it’s that the daily ramped so hard on metals and other things for the past 4 weeks it’s pure parabola. I look at the weekly and the pullback point on a bunch of these things is still another 15% lower than today.
DXY looks double bottomed on the weekly. This was always my biggest worry for this recent rallly move.
FOMC 3rd May. It’ll be +0.25%
3rd May / 5th May / 10th May apparently the key dates for volatility which is what you said above about early May taking lows and then rally upwards.
It feels a tad dangerous at the moment. I know I’m likely looking for a short term pullback and a bounce that fails like you suggest. Rising DXY kills so many things I was looking at.
What are you eyeing if you were to buy a pullback mid May?
I'm following a liquidity model which has been incredibly accurate for several months now. My post from today is just a rehash of a post from 3 weeks ago and it's setting up for this really nicely.
Don't have a price forecast, but I got DXY lows for the year in mid/late April, stocks markets peaking in May and tech earnings then crashing everything. I would expect for the most part that BTC will follow. So bitcoin mini cycle top in May followed by a June low
As long as you don't allow yourself to get super bullish or super bearish, buy at support then you should be okay with most picks.
I'm just gonna stick with the indices though as 0DTE flow and the JPM collar are my signals for when to buy and sell. Takes all the stress out of it. Probably pick up some crypto and some point too. If I find something I really like I'll post it. (Maybe Tesla if we get to 130 or a double bottom)
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The SPX liquidity models have a possible target of around 4075 in a few days, I'll take 4090. May is a big move up for risk on assets thanks in part to China money. Crypto will probably benefit the most from it and peak in May. A dip before the rip scenario looks in play.
June is bear month for the SPX. The debt ceiling outcome would be a good reason to send the markets the lower. Doesn't actually matter which way the decision goes as both outcomes send it lower.
On the crypto side I'm keeping an eye on a possible Lido and stETH de-peg sending ETH sub 1K. This could be caused either by hackers or by large scale selling. Lido is due a big unstaking which they keep delaying. Insiders are looking to exit (possibly May or more likely June) and it's all getting very sketchy there.
* 4080 locked. Time to scalp the bounce
(https://www.memeatlas.com/images/bobos/bobo-tuxedo-showing-graph.png)
*Scalp returned nothing and missed the drop on SPX. 10 year will have to do, expecting it to drop from 3.45% to sub 3.3%end of month.
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The SPX liquidity models have a possible target of around 4075 in a few days, I'll take 4090. May is a big move up for risk on assets thanks in part to China money. Crypto will probably benefit the most from it and peak in May. A dip before the rip scenario looks in play.
June is bear month for the SPX. The debt ceiling outcome would be a good reason to send the markets the lower. Doesn't actually matter which way the decision goes as both outcomes send it lower.
On the crypto side I'm keeping an eye on a possible Lido and stETH de-peg sending ETH sub 1K. This could be caused either by hackers or by large scale selling. Lido is due a big unstaking which they keep delaying. Insiders are looking to exit (possibly May or more likely June) and it's all getting very sketchy there.
* 4080 locked. Time to scalp the bounce
(https://www.memeatlas.com/images/bobos/bobo-tuxedo-showing-graph.png)
*Scalp returned nothing and missed the drop on SPX. 10 year will have to do, expecting it to drop from 3.45% to sub 3.3%end of month.
I’m still sidelined, lithoum recyclers and rural on a large leg down and Im waitiing to see an entry.
DXY at a turning point. If we go down it’s metals and rate cut, if we go up DXY to new highs, equities to new highs, oil to new highs. Metals and crypto to nuke.
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Why would the DXY going down give cause for a rate cut? I thought they would have kept rates high to defend the currency
Likewise won't a strong dollar weaken the purchasing power of foreign buyers of equities
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I’m still sidelined, lithoum recyclers and rural on a large leg down and Im waitiing to see an entry.
DXY at a turning point. If we go down it’s metals and rate cut, if we go up DXY to new highs, equities to new highs, oil to new highs. Metals and crypto to nuke.
DXY up, but not a new high this year.
Equities higher in May, down in June and the chop fest continues.
Oil lower, Opec maybe cuts again to pump it, but it's mostly heading down.
Metals are already starting to drop, recession drops it further. Big gold rally afterwards.
Crypto pops in May, drops by June, sustained summer lull.
Nothing is super bearish or bullish.
Fed will go to 5.75% and hold for as long possible. Decent chance of no cuts this year.
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Why would the DXY going down give cause for a rate cut? I thought they would have kept rates high to defend the currency
Likewise won't a strong dollar weaken the purchasing power of foreign buyers of equities
A few posts back we touched on some ideas.
in a nutshell peak rates = peak dollar
It’s an inconvenient truth because nobody wants to believe right now that rates can go higher which would also correlate with higher DXY, higher oil and new ATH S&P.
i was wrong In my initial thoughts which is why I sold my silver miner position because the DXY looked to double bottom whereas I though it’d go down to 0.96 (it still might).
So the argument becomes the Fed was unable to crack the job market or raise rates higher enough. Now a with a 2024 election time is running out as either govt will announce large fiscal policies. Therefore rates will go up meaning DXY high is not in nor is oil peak in which means metals will get wrecked, hence I sold.
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DXY up, but not a new high this year.
Equities higher in May, down in June and the chop fest continues.
Oil lower, Opec maybe cuts again to pump it, but it's mostly heading down.
Metals are already starting to drop, recession drops it further. Big gold rally afterwards.
Crypto pops in May, drops by June, sustained summer lull.
Nothing is super bearish or bullish.
Fed will go to 5.75% and hold for as long possible. Decent chance of no cuts this year.
If history repeats, if rates go up DXY has not seen a peak nor has oil.
Metals are dropping because of the huge FOMO. Down here the miners are overheated like crazy. Maybe gut neeay-June to play out and see where they land.
Biden says no recession. We had a recession in 2022 and everybody forgot. Probably the same in 2023?
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If history repeats, if rates go up DXY has not seen a peak nor has oil.
Metals are dropping because of the huge FOMO. Down here the miners are overheated like crazy. Maybe gut neeay-June to play out and see where they land.
Biden says no recession. We had a recession in 2022 and everybody forgot. Probably the same in 2023?
The little I know about Aussie markets is that they really do "sell in May and go away", so there could be a seasonal element and front running there.
Some are saying we're already in a recession and have good numbers to back those claims, but it might take 6 to 8 months for it to be declared. The FED saying they expect a mild recession makes me think that mild is actually a best case scenario. They said the same thing before the GFC.
Other than for historical reasons, why would DXY and oil need to hit new highs if say the FED go to 5.75% and holds?
Equities will find it difficult to hit new highs this year. Why would serious money take the risk with equities right now when there are other risk free instruments offering them 5%-7% returns? Liquidity is dead. Markets are pumping on 0DTEs otherwise struggle to make much of a move up even with 15% pumps on some of the biggest stocks. Vix is dead, the markets are garbage and it's all a shit show right now.
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The little I know about Aussie markets is that they really do "sell in May and go away", so there could be a seasonal element and front running there.
Some are saying we're already in a recession and have good numbers to back those claims, but it might take 6 to 8 months for it to be declared. The FED saying they expect a mild recession makes me think that mild is actually a best case scenario. They said the same thing before the GFC.
Other than for historical reasons, why would DXY and oil need to hit new highs if say the FED go to 5.75% and holds?
Equities will find it difficult to hit new highs this year. Why would serious money take the risk with equities right now when there are other risk free instruments offering them 5%-7% returns? Liquidity is dead. Markets are pumping on 0DTEs otherwise struggle to make much of a move up even with 15% pumps on some of the biggest stocks. Vix is dead, the markets are garbage and it's all a shit show right now.
The last 40yrs S&P rallied up to peak rates. Go back 60yrs and there is only a few times the S&P sold off prior to peak rates. We have much more probability of correlation that peak rates = peak S&P. If the S&P has already peaked it means for the first time ever the market front ran every single rate hike
Before it happened and got all of them correct.
Oil is basically the same. Peak rates = peak oil or oil does a GFC and peaks after rate peak. DXY also in the same bucket and trends higher. With peaking rates.
We are not yet at peak rates as May will be +0.25% yet if we were to believe Raoul Pal he says the market looks forward 6 months and has priced everything in and he believes the bond market is right 99% of the time. He already got stopped out longing bonds and his second attempt is barely above water. I noticed in a recent clip when he brags about his positions 4/5 were crypto which pretty much says his take has been wrong. the market sold off almost 1.5yrs years ago in anticipation of rate cuts being already here yet we are still hiking.
Job market is not close to cracking and looks nothing like it did in the previous 8 recessions. GDP is positive. Spending is positive. No defaults. PE ratios look good.
Look at how extended above trend the US money supply is. We peaked at 25% above trend, now 19% and people think nobody has any money and if the Fed doesn’t cut to 0% tomorrow it all collapses.
There is zero scenario in history where the market sold off, sat flat while rates went higher. The market always went up and set new highs out to peak rates. So at least to my eyes I need to get rates right to take the right position but as more time passes more data is suggesting we need to go up.
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The last 40yrs S&P rallied up to peak rates. Go back 60yrs and there is only a few times the S&P sold off prior to peak rates. We have much more probability of correlation that peak rates = peak S&P. If the S&P has already peaked it means for the first time ever the market front ran every single rate hike
Before it happened and got all of them correct.
Oil is basically the same. Peak rates = peak oil or oil does a GFC and peaks after rate peak. DXY also in the same bucket and trends higher. With peaking rates.
We are not yet at peak rates as May will be +0.25% yet if we were to believe Raoul Pal he says the market looks forward 6 months and has priced everything in and he believes the bond market is right 99% of the time. He already got stopped out longing bonds and his second attempt is barely above water. I noticed in a recent clip when he brags about his positions 4/5 were crypto which pretty much says his take has been wrong. the market sold off almost 1.5yrs years ago in anticipation of rate cuts being already here yet we are still hiking.
Job market is not close to cracking and looks nothing like it did in the previous 8 recessions. GDP is positive. Spending is positive. No defaults. PE ratios look good.
Look at how extended above trend the US money supply is. We peaked at 25% above trend, now 19% and people think nobody has any money and if the Fed doesn’t cut to 0% tomorrow it all collapses.
There is zero scenario in history where the market sold off, sat flat while rates went higher. The market always went up and set new highs out to peak rates. So at least to my eyes I need to get rates right to take the right position but as more time passes more data is suggesting we need to go up.
You're comparing eras were companies were built to operate with elevated and fluctuating rates to an era where companies were operating with zero rates.
So in the past a company would operate with a 10% rate for a few years, then steadily dropped to a 3% rate for a few years, then climbed up to 5% etc. The fluctuating rates were meant to be built into their business model. That's how you could get new S&PX highs even with rates rising.
For most of the 2010s companies operated with 0% rates. It was an era of cheap money and free money that gave us the Jan 2022 high. The conditions that led to those market highs just don't exist any more.
The best example from the past for comparison would would be 1994/95. Rates were pretty low at 3% and the SPX peaked. It then climbed to 6% in 6 months and the SPX didn't reach a new high until after 12 months. That's the closest thing that there has ever been to a "soft landing" and basically what they're trying to do now.
The best chance the SPX has of reaching a new high this year without the money printer is if DXY plummets. The weak $ could attract a lot of foreign money into US equities and pump them, otherwise how exactly do they get pumped?
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High rates and a flat market gets the public out of stocks and into bonds, leaving the former for insiders.
IMO, this is bullish for stocks.
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I just don't see a justification for ATHs for equities
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I’m only focusing on inflationary cycles because that is what I believed we were in the moment the globe shutdown. If I look at your 90s example it proves my point. Rates hit a first peak in 1995 and pullback slightly, S&P rallied 2.5x to the Dotcom and rates peak at Dotcom in 2000 before a major Selloff was seen.
80yrs of history in the chart below
Above the top line correlates with higher rates.
Higher rates correlates with higher DXY and higher oil. We have not yet trended above the top line for any reasonable period yet. PE ratio is 19 and we hit 45 in Dotcom and 120+ in GFC. Both Dotcom and GFC were created in rising rate environments, neither sold off before peak rates and both had higher oil prices than previous when at peaks.
13-31-55 were the time periods between sell off events in months. if we don’t sell off in November then it’s mid 2025. If we don’t sell off in mid 2025 then it’s mid 2027.
Dotcom ran like a mofo for 5yrs after the first peak rates was hit. Just so happens 55 gets us to 2027 which is 5yrs 👀
After Dotcom we ran 7yrs on to create the GFC which had much higher oil prices. Most countries are phasing out combustion engines in 2035 which is 8yrs after 2027. Look at Dotcom to GFC….. 👀 yes, I am being utterly rerarded here but im just saying even that makes more sense than half the shit I see online.
When people are waiting up to 2.5yrs for a Toyota how can we go down on equities?
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I’m only focusing on inflationary cycles because that is what I believed we were in the moment the globe shutdown. If I look at your 90s example it proves my point. Rates hit a first peak in 1995 and pullback slightly, S&P rallied 2.5x to the Dotcom and rates peak at Dotcom in 2000 before a major Selloff was seen.
When people are waiting up to 2.5yrs for a Toyota how can we go down on equities?
The 90s example was a "soft landing" so that would need us to assume we'll have a soft landing this time too. Also if there was a 6 month gap between rates peaking and a new high. Assuming rates keep rising to 5.75% and there is at least a 6 months gap to a new ATH, then that still means markets chop for the rest of the year.
If you look at what the market is doing now it's a joke. You have news headlines and data releases being traded by bots and algos (typically sending the markets lower) and then you have 0DTE trades (typically pumping markets) That's all the market is right now. It's no longer about cycles and processes from the past that at least had some merits and made some sense.
A 2.5 year wait for a Toyota, home swimming pool businesses making record profits etc also means they will just keep raising rates. I haven't said equities will go down, I've argued that markets are being propped up because of a lack of liquidity and that it will continue to be a chop fest. The longer that continues the more likely it becomes that something breaks, then we get pivot and then a crash. That's why I believe it's too early to be positioned for an upside recovery. It's either sideways then up, or sideways, crash and then up.
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Prediction for the markets for the next couple of weeks and May. Bulls get trapped or maybe even flip bear. Fed meeting in May might even be hawkish adding to the bear sentiment. Peak bear mode is engaged by the markets.
0DTE options pile in at the bottom in early/mid May and launch everything skywards like one of Elons rocket, and just like his rocket it blows up and crashes back down to Earth in June.
(https://miro.medium.com/v2/resize:fit:640/format:webp/1*WAGmOnV5mbxW2ZWdwW1p5g.png)
(https://media.tenor.com/iNJ3cA3wV18AAAAC/the-simpsons-mr-burns.gif)
Apple earnings soon. Insiders sold recently.. markets could still get more bearish.. Buy backs could also be on the table.
I'll be watching closely for the bullish flip.
*U.S. Federal and state officials are assessing possible 'market manipulation' regarding banking shares - source
exclusive-many U.S. Regional banks have sound fundamentals, stable deposits, remain well-capitalize
US FEDERAL AND STATE OFFICIALS ARE ASSESSING POSSIBLE MARKET MANIPULATION REGARDING BANKING SHARES
Squeeze set up
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(https://media0.giphy.com/media/v1.Y2lkPTc5MGI3NjExZTM5NmEwNjIwYTBhMzkyOGY0NjM3NzI1MmJkY2VlZDMyM2RjNTEyMSZlcD12MV9pbnRlcm5hbF9naWZzX2dpZklkJmN0PWc/3o7TKPdUkkbCAVqWk0/giphy.gif)
NFP data and the squeeze spanked the recession bros today. Next up the pivot bros. They are set up for rate cuts in July. The only they get that if the market breaks, so either they know something or they are trapped.
Higher rates for longer and a range bound market or a crash.
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Dotcom repeat but it will be on the back of AI which would be a +250% rally 👀
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Dotcom repeat but it will be on the back of AI which would be a +250% rally 👀
I'm on board with that, but only after more of the pump and dumps, free money era, unprofitable companies get killed off and money makes its way to more genuine innovative companies. That's still maybe 6 to 12 months away and only after a "soft landing" or crash. Although SVB failing was a huge step towards that.
Btw Vitalik sold recently and ETH foundation moved a bunch of ETH. If they're sell it's worth remembering they sold 5 out of the last 7 tops/local tops.
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I'm on board with that, but only after more of the pump and dumps, free money era, unprofitable companies get killed off and money makes its way to more genuine innovative companies. That's still maybe 6 to 12 months away and only after a "soft landing" or crash. Although SVB failing was a huge step towards that.
Btw Vitalik sold recently and ETH foundation moved a bunch of ETH. If they're sell it's worth remembering they sold 5 out of the last 7 tops/local tops.
Vitalik loves his tens of millions for runway lol 😆
This past week my feed has been filled with liquidations of longs on alt coins. Utter carnage. I had said runway to May for a peak which seems to be about right for now.
For a market bottom the trend was 13-33-55 months or thereabouts with 33 being most common. I like 55 as it fits with 1995 rate cycle, tech boom, liquidity cycle, move into GFC for peak oil in 2035.
job data isn’t pointing to a typical historical recession ie no hard landing. Typical is claims >300k and NFP negative. It takes 12-24mths from bottom to peak if going straight to a recession. Bottom was Sept 2022 but NFP is still rising which is inverse to what is required for a typical hurtful recession.
Went long on that rural ETF last week. +3% now and this is a proper long term position. They own agriculture equipment, land, farming, maintenance etc. basically you get exposure to everything inflationary in farming which I liked.
Im eyeing our largest building materials provider. This is very near a bottom though but I think lumber has one more move down inline with demand so I’m waiting for another month or two.
Lithium miners still look on the way down. I think it’s going to be linked with consumer demand/Economic bottom ??? Thoughts?
I am also eyeing Cobalt miners. I’m using Cobalt as a second bottoming check against lithium so it gives me a bit clearer insight. Cobalt gives a clearer view of a bottom still being a short time away IMO whereas lithium looks a little muddy.
Finally, DXY still looks like a double bottom and it is nearing a weekly up signal. chart is the Dotcom boom overlayed with DXY showing the clear uptrend. i might short some silver miners in the coming weeks.
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Vitalik loves his tens of millions for runway lol 😆
This past week my feed has been filled with liquidations of longs on alt coins. Utter carnage. I had said runway to May for a peak which seems to be about right for now.
For a market bottom the trend was 13-33-55 months or thereabouts with 33 being most common. I like 55 as it fits with 1995 rate cycle, tech boom, liquidity cycle, move into GFC for peak oil in 2035.
job data isn’t pointing to a typical historical recession ie no hard landing. Typical is claims >300k and NFP negative. It takes 12-24mths from bottom to peak if going straight to a recession. Bottom was Sept 2022 but NFP is still rising which is inverse to what is required for a typical hurtful recession.
Went long on that rural ETF last week. +3% now and this is a proper long term position. They own agriculture equipment, land, farming, maintenance etc. basically you get exposure to everything inflationary in farming which I liked.
Im eyeing our largest building materials provider. This is very near a bottom though but I think lumber has one more move down inline with demand so I’m waiting for another month or two.
Lithium miners still look on the way down. I think it’s going to be linked with consumer demand/Economic bottom ??? Thoughts?
I am also eyeing Cobalt miners. I’m using Cobalt as a second bottoming check against lithium so it gives me a bit clearer insight. Cobalt gives a clearer view of a bottom still being a short time away IMO whereas lithium looks a little muddy.
Finally, DXY still looks like a double bottom and it is nearing a weekly up signal. chart is the Dotcom boom overlayed with DXY showing the clear uptrend. i might short some silver miners in the coming weeks.
Bitcoin (and Eth) dominance is doing its thing and washing out most alts. I'm hoping the carnage continues for the rest of the year and alts drop at least 95% from ATHs. Potential 10x plus gains will be back on the cards
I'm still favouring a recession and a not so soft landing before we get another generational bull market. A credit crunch is looking likely now and the yield curve has inverted. There is a lag between hikes and jobs, unemployment rises more significantly 12 to 18 months after the start of rate hikes. So mid to late 2023. Also around this time the FED should lay out their plans for future cuts. This causes the yield curve to rocket up. Curve up, unemployment up, plus credit crunch and we should have a recession and bumpy landing.
This chart cuts out a lot of noise and equalises things. It's tightening first and then if we see high unemployment it's a hard landing. No high unemployment then it's a soft landing.
(https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F322b2e5c-c56a-4a99-9cba-af7be0c5f8fa_3691x2106.png)
Remember FED pivot/cuts is when everything nukes and we get a bottom like later. The pivot isn't the cause for the nuke, it's just an indicator of a broken market. In the most recent past this has mostly lined up around the cycle top, but there is no reason for it not to happen in a market that's already down (see 70s). Pivot and no nuke would be a soft landing.
(https://preview.redd.it/the-major-drops-in-stock-markets-occur-after-the-fed-pivots-v0-c47jl8u8ih2a1.jpg?width=2048&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=e6c7b7b057385890b1ba5302ced64fa2f99f74d0)
With regards to metals I'm just watching copper. It typically pukes hard and early when there is demand destruction and is a good indicator for everything else puking. It's sitting on the cliff edge, but it's been there for while. Do your best TA on it and pray you time it (or other metals) right
FYI the best pure TA guys I know are bullish on gold and silver breakouts. The guys following liquidity who have rarely been wrong this past 6 months are bearish. Macro guys don't know. I'm 90% out of everything right now.
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(http://www.shadowstats.com/imgs/sgs-cpi.gif?hl=ad&t=1683737403)
Nice looking chart. The question is how much demand will these new and improved prices destroy before they have to start talking about UBI?
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Bitcoin (and Eth) dominance is doing its thing and washing out most alts. I'm hoping the carnage continues for the rest of the year and alts drop at least 95% from ATHs. Potential 10x plus gains will be back on the cards
I'm still favouring a recession and a not so soft landing before we get another generational bull market. A credit crunch is looking likely now and the yield curve has inverted. There is a lag between hikes and jobs, unemployment rises more significantly 12 to 18 months after the start of rate hikes. So mid to late 2023. Also around this time the FED should lay out their plans for future cuts. This causes the yield curve to rocket up. Curve up, unemployment up, plus credit crunch and we should have a recession and bumpy landing.
This chart cuts out a lot of noise and equalises things. It's tightening first and then if we see high unemployment it's a hard landing. No high unemployment then it's a soft landing.
(https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F322b2e5c-c56a-4a99-9cba-af7be0c5f8fa_3691x2106.png)
Remember FED pivot/cuts is when everything nukes and we get a bottom like later. The pivot isn't the cause for the nuke, it's just an indicator of a broken market. In the past this mostly happened to line up around the cycle top, but there is no reason for it not to happen in a market that's already down 20%. Pivot and no nuke would be a soft landing.
(https://preview.redd.it/the-major-drops-in-stock-markets-occur-after-the-fed-pivots-v0-c47jl8u8ih2a1.jpg?width=2048&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=e6c7b7b057385890b1ba5302ced64fa2f99f74d0)
With regards to metals I'm just watching copper. It typically pukes hard and early when there is demand destruction and is a good indicator for everything else puking. It's sitting on the cliff edge, but it's been there for while. Do your best TA on it and pray you time it (or other metals) right
FYI the best pure TA guys I know are bullish on gold and silver breakouts. The guys following liquidity who have rarely been wrong this past 6 months are bearish. Macro guys don't know. I'm 90% out of everything right now.
That Fed pivot chart did the rounds but looking at what happens at peak rates is better. Last 40yrs 5/6 rate peaks lead to new ATH.
S&P performance after peak rates:
2019 +13% ATH
2007 +29% ATH
1995 +29% ATH
1984 +118% ATH
Late 1980 sold off 1mth prior to peak
Early 1980 +18% ATH
The above 40yr history suggests S&P targets before the sell off event are 5,400-5,600-6,200-10,500 if you use Fed rate history as your marker.
In the times the market sold off fully or in the middle of a selloff prior to peak rates:
1956 peak rate basically was the bottom
1966 peak rate was the market bottom
1969 7mth -20% with next 10mths -17%
1973 18mths -30% with next 3mths -20%
I have been quite chuffed at my +7.6% in 3 months using max 35% of my capital….. right up until yesterday when my neighbour told my wife she made 50k in one day because her shares went up 4%. Turns out she caught one for a 30x and has around 1.1M in her portfolio. Naturally I get a bit from my wife jokingly about my crap returns but I tell her sure you hear about the 30x but she didn’t tell you about the one that has lost 90% the last 4mths (I know what’s in her portfolio) 👀
If I used 100% of my capital for all the trades I have done I’d be up +30% already but I’m trying not to be a total degenerate. I actually hate this shit, honestly it’s such a waste of energy/stress lol.
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(http://www.shadowstats.com/imgs/sgs-cpi.gif?hl=ad&t=1683737403)
Nice looking chart. The question is how much demand will these new and improved prices destroy before they have to start talking about UBI?
Countries on variable mortgage rates = we feel rate impact on demand a lot and we see a lot of market decline.
US on fixed mortgage rates = 90% on fixed rates don’t feel any difference except when using new consumer credit = Americans have HUGE spending available vs rest of the world.
The US economy will perform better at higher rates vs rest of the world which is why the USD is king.
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That Fed pivot chart did the rounds but looking at what happens at peak rates is better. Last 40yrs 5/6 rate peaks lead to new ATH.
S&P performance after peak rates:
2019 +13% ATH
2007 +29% ATH
1995 +29% ATH
1984 +118% ATH
Late 1980 sold off 1mth prior to peak
Early 1980 +18% ATH
The above 40yr history suggests S&P targets before the sell off event are 5,400-5,600-6,200-10,500 if you use Fed rate history as your marker.
In the times the market sold off fully or in the middle of a selloff prior to peak rates:
1956 peak rate basically was the bottom
1966 peak rate was the market bottom
1969 7mth -20% with next 10mths -17%
1973 18mths -30% with next 3mths -20%
That pivot chart is what I think has got a lot people expecting a new high basically for similar reason you've outlined, but just remember in those cycles the SPX for the most part was still going up as rates were increasing.
This time the SPX has mostly been going down as rates have increased, so it's a different set up to what led to those new ATH after peak rates. That's why I'm trying to look at other indicators. Just imagine positioning for a new ATH and instead we drop another 25% or vice versa
I have been quite chuffed at my +7.6% in 3 months using max 35% of my capital….. right up until yesterday when my neighbour told my wife she made 50k in one day because her shares went up 4%. Turns out she caught one for a 30x and has around 1.1M in her portfolio. Naturally I get a bit from my wife jokingly about my crap returns but I tell her sure you hear about the 30x but she didn’t tell you about the one that has lost 90% the last 4mths (I know what’s in her portfolio) 👀
If I used 100% of my capital for all the trades I have done I’d be up +30% already but I’m trying not to be a total degenerate. I actually hate this shit, honestly it’s such a waste of energy/stress lol.
Yeah the market is a grind right now, but I'm kinda enjoying it. Not taking any overly bullish or bearish long term positioning. This is the kinda market though that's just gonna churn and wreck portfolios. Imagine another 6 month of this, even 12 or 18 months is a possibility. Your neighbour with the 1.1m portfolio will be lucky to be left with half that if she's playing around with that kinda leverage in these markets. Look at the SPX yesterday, the algos and 0dtes KO'ed everyone.
I'm only still in this market because I can manage my positions full time and the liquidity models I've been using are still firing hot. SPX dip mid May, followed by some bullishness month. Risk on assets (crypto) possibly reaching a low in mid June then bullish for 6 months. Model updates again later today though.
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That pivot chart is what I think has got a lot people expecting a new high basically for similar reason you've outlined, but just remember in those cycles the SPX for the most part was still going up as rates were increasing.
This time the SPX has mostly been going down as rates have increased, so it's a different set up to what led to those new ATH after peak rates. That's why I'm trying to look at other indicators. Just imagine positioning for a new ATH and instead we drop another 25% or vice versa
I'm only still in this market because I can manage my positions full time and the liquidity models I've been using are still firing hot. SPX dip mid May, followed by some bullishness month. Risk on assets (crypto) possibly reaching a low in mid June then bullish for 6 months. Model updates again later today though.
I’d be wary of it’s different this time. It looks the same as history to my brain and I expect the same behaviour as history (ie S&P new highs, DXY new highs, oil new highs). The consensus of the 98% remains overly bearish so be wary of siding with the Uber driver. We are +20% from lows and the crash talkers cheers when it’s -1% claiming victory, bragging they are going to buy the generational lows 👀
For something a little different, it will be interesting how the M2 behaves, especially in next month’s update. If we hold here 98% are going to be very, very wrong and you will see capital sucked right back into the US and the USD will return as the wrecking ball.
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I’d be wary of it’s different this time. It looks the same as history to my brain and I expect the same behaviour as history (ie S&P new highs, DXY new highs, oil new highs). The consensus of the 98% remains overly bearish so be wary of siding with the Uber driver. We are +20% from lows and the crash talkers cheers when it’s -1% claiming victory, bragging they are going to buy the generational lows 👀
For something a little different, it will be interesting how the M2 behaves, especially in next month’s update. If we hold here 98% are going to be very, very wrong and you will see capital sucked right back into the US and the USD will return as the wrecking ball.
It's an easy case to make why "it’s different this time" (although I don't think it's "different" just taking a different path) and that's because the FED fucked up.
They should have started raising rates 12 to 18 months before the actually started raising them, and they should have been raising them into the rising market. If they started raising rates in early 2021 at 25 bps and maybe a couple of 50bps then that would have got the job done and everything would have looked like the previous cycles. But as I said the FED fucked up and raised rates too late in the cycle. They were basically playing catch up and the 75bps raises x4 in a falling market was truly desperate stuff from them.
That's also why I also started saying I would be looking at different indicators rather than FED pivot/cuts. Can't expect cuts to coincide with the market crashing like previous cycles because the process to get there has been different this time.
Anyway the indicators I was looking at (copper, oil, unemployment in US, EU data) have me convinced that the second half of this year will end up being a recognised recession. Won't be no new highs in a recession, but still wont get overly bearish (have positioning for a black swan crash in equities and higher DXY) as I think it's a sideways market all the way into 2024 with an SPX low of around 3800 in late Q1/early Q2 2024.
Longed DXY back in April at the bottom. Obviously wishing I went in bigger, but it's one of the few plays I'm confident of holding into 2024. LMAO at dollar destruction and the BRICS FUD
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Our difference lies in that I believe the Fed moves exist because they are needed.
It’s super easy to create stability but stability = economic death.
The waves are what provides opportunity and incentive.
if they raised rates earlier and harder it would have stopped inflation. So you up rates later to allow inflation to increase to a level where you can get rates higher in order to create a wave in the opposite direction. Now there is a down cycle which creates opportunity for govt fiscal spending.
We both agree November is a target period for the next selloff bottom (if we get it). If you believe the Fed is doing it on purpose it makes forward looking much easier. For anyone to believe it’s all one big mistake it would be a huge coincidence that those mistakes happen to sol e the biggest problems.
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For all the talk, the market has gone exactly nowhere in the past year:
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For all the talk, the market has gone exactly nowhere in the past year:
Yep.
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For all the talk, the market has gone exactly nowhere in the past
all time highs soon according to some
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For all the talk, the market has gone exactly nowhere in the past year:
Yep.
Nope
2 years
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The Fed really showed their hand when they shit their pants in March 2021 and went into the junk bond market
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Our difference lies in that I believe the Fed moves exist because they are needed.
It’s super easy to create stability but stability = economic death.
The waves are what provides opportunity and incentive.
if they raised rates earlier and harder it would have stopped inflation. So you up rates later to allow inflation to increase to a level where you can get rates higher in order to create a wave in the opposite direction. Now there is a down cycle which creates opportunity for govt fiscal spending.
We both agree November is a target period for the next selloff bottom (if we get it). If you believe the Fed is doing it on purpose it makes forward looking much easier. For anyone to believe it’s all one big mistake it would be a huge coincidence that those mistakes happen to sol e the biggest problems.
I could get on board with the idea that this was all some master plan from the FED, but when they've been presented with an opportunity to speed the process up they chose to prop up the market instead.
The quickest way out of their problems would have been to let the markets crash in October 22 or March 23. Instead of just ripping off the band aid, they keep adding more and make things even more difficult for themselves.
I get more the vibes that they know they fucked up and are now going to go for a soft landing hail mary to try and save face.
The Fed really showed their hand when they shit their pants in March 2021 and went into the junk bond market
Interesting that you mention junk bonds. They are falling and the SPX is rallying. Very similar to the move in mid Feb which ended in an SPX dump.
Good place to build a short position. Upside SPX gap was close to filling yesterday thanks to a 0DTEs push. Now would be a good time to try fill it and then push to fill the downside gap. Gap also sits near max pain and Opex just happens to be around the corner. 4050 is sticking out like a sore thumb
More Jobs data out today so any recession fears from that will be the perfect narrative to send the SPX down.
*More people working could drop it too due to the increasing possibility of another FED rate hike.
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If history repeats, if rates go up DXY has not seen a peak nor has oil.
Metals are dropping because of the huge FOMO. Down here the miners are overheated like crazy. Maybe gut neeay-June to play out and see where they land.
Biden says no recession. We had a recession in 2022 and everybody forgot. Probably the same in 2023?
The whole debt ceiling drama and proceeding TGA refill and debt issuance has most of macro twitter talking about liquidity being sucked out of the market, so bearish. Equities however are looking bullish and a rate skip is being favoured.
I've actually got net liquidity increasing initially, so taking short/mid term bullish positioning from next week (most of it post rate skip confirmation) with a end of Q2 short scalper before adding more long positioning.
Depending on how long net liquidity is favourable, history may well be repeating like you said. DXY higher, although struggling to see how oil will peak. Recession likely in 2024, but no one will see it coming as markets (not economy) are are stong as they're gonna be full bull.
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Market has to go up as it is priced in dollars and value of dollars still dropping from inflation. The other metrics don't matter at the moment, just going up until it doesn't. When dollars get scarce things will get ugly.
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FWIW the 2 companies I work for switched from revenue focus to profit and cost saving.
It’s my preference anyway as I’m geared to build efficiency.
I think people will be caught off guard just how quickly we can become fucking profitable if the current people are the decision makers. Also the earnings drop isn’t really that bad given how much we can move the needle on margin.
Anyhoo, for now we just wait and see how much damage is done to the consumer wallet.
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Rate hold flat.
My 5.33% model is still in play with rates at 5.25%.
However, if my model is wrong and we are not at peak my revised model is:
August +0.25%
November +0.25%
What makes the revised model very interesting is the last rate rise in No ember falls bang on 13 which is part of the sequence I outlined.
This means an equity selloff of epic proportion is on the cards for November.
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Rate hold flat.
My 5.33% model is still in play with rates at 5.25%.
However, if my model is wrong and we are not at peak my revised model is:
August +0.25%
November +0.25%
What makes the revised model very interesting is the last rate rise in No ember falls bang on 13 which is part of the sequence I outlined.
This means an equity selloff of epic proportion is on the cards for November.
I like the 5.75% always have.
This current skip/pause was possibly semi forced on them so Yellen can refill the TGA. It also gives them some breathing room and time to reassess things to make sure they don't over do it. Ultimately I think they'll do what they've said and that's 2 more 0.25% hikes.
My upside targets have already been hit for the markets. I'm out for now.
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(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FyvfKgoWYAQnM8a?format=jpg&name=medium)
Liquidity also drying up next week and technicals suggest a provisional top with a correction due. Sustained break below 4440 on ES and it's time to load the shorts. I've already started early.
(https://media.tenor.com/BtXPg9Ei1E8AAAAM/hello-bear-waving.gif)
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From a historical standpoint, the years following a crisis or panic, whether, real or manufactured, are usually very good as confidence is restored to the system. I suspect they know this at the Fed and they’ll take credit for preventing a recession that was not gonna happen anyway.
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From a historical standpoint, the years following a crisis or panic, whether, real or manufactured, are usually very good as confidence is restored to the system. I suspect they know this at the Fed and they’ll take credit for preventing a recession that was not gonna happen anyway.
How can we keep staving off a recession forever?
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From a historical standpoint, the years following a crisis or panic, whether, real or manufactured, are usually very good as confidence is restored to the system. I suspect they know this at the Fed and they’ll take credit for preventing a recession that was not gonna happen anyway.
There is a good chance this is true. As Mayday mentioned previously there has technically already been recession in 2022 if using the old system, so maybe it's done.
However a lot of the buffer like RRP that is being used to get through this current crises will be gone soon. If recession does hit in late 23 or 2024 then it will hit the markets hard and fast and with very little buffer to stop it falling, but that should mean any crash will be over pretty quickly. A crash wouldn't be the worst thing that can happen if markets are strong (higher) which is the direction they look to be heading now.
If it happens almost no one will be calling that recession ahead of time and historically that's also been the case with recessions.
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+25% up from lows is a clear trend over time.Where it’s at currently supports my view for a bullish ATH more than anyone bearish or chopish. perhaps we chop for a month, who knows, but I’d say we might be closer to 4,800 in August than people think.
If you're looking for a long position you should get a nice entry within the next few trading days, but yeah the run up looks like it still has some legs for July/Aug
I hope you got or are gonna get a long entry. Should test the 4450 SPX June high pretty soon, followed be a small pull back before blowing past it. Could be a decent size correction after that (which would be a last chance for a nice long entry) and then the bull run to the 4800 target you've been calling.
You don't wanna end up being right but not make any money on it!
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I hope you got or are gonna get a long entry. Should test the 4450 SPX June high pretty soon, followed be a small pull back before blowing past it. Could be a decent size correction after that (which would be a last chance for a nice long positioning) and then the bull run to the 4800 target you've been calling.
You don't wanna end up being right but not make any money on it!
You are quoting posts that don't exist.
Am i missing something or were they deleted?
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You are quoting posts that don't exist.
Am i missing something or were they deleted?
Posts were from a different thread (bitcoin) just more relevant to talk about it here
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I hope you got or are gonna get a long entry. Should test the 4450 SPX June high pretty soon, followed be a small pull back before blowing past it. Could be a decent size correction after that (which would be a last chance for a nice long entry) and then the bull run to the 4800 target you've been calling.
You don't wanna end up being right but not make any money on it!
I don’t look at much anymore to be honest. I sound retarded.
A house in my estate sold for a record so it’s nice to be right on that one. I tried to explain to family how consumer inflation drives household saving and leads to higher property prices. Blank looks. I sound like a spastic.
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Who would have known a bbing board would be home to so many market experts
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SPX might go higher Monday, but we might get another "Russian coup" attempt or something over weekend so I've taken some cash off the table to pay for my McDonald's supersize order.
Looking to deploy a short scalper next week, maybe on any Monday pop otherwise re-enter SPX longs at 4433 (might even hit that today)
Using US10Y as my signal. Below 3.8 then expecting a Monday pop (which I'll short scalp) Stay above 3.815 and more longs at 4433
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Who would have known a bbing board would be home to so many market experts
:D Warren Buffett lurks on here for advice.
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Rates held downunder. Scope for 1 more rise before year end which would be 4.45%. My model of 4.75% is pretty close, 1 rate hike off so that’s not too bad.
We are lagging so far behind everyone else. My assumption now is a hold with a few small increments over 1-2yrs. No cuts short term. Boa constrictor method.
If I said this to locals here I’d be laughed out of the room.
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Rates held downunder. Scope for 1 more rise before year end which would be 4.45%. My model of 4.75% is pretty close, 1 rate hike off so that’s not too bad.
We are lagging so far behind everyone else. My assumption now is a hold with a few small increments over 1-2yrs. No cuts short term. Boa constrictor method.
If I said this to locals here I’d be laughed out of the room.
Can the shitter balance a checkbook?
Can the shitter wipe his own greasy-grommet?
Can the shitter utter some adjectives or say a few syllables??
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Inversion curve:
2 year 4.94 - 10 year 3.86 = 1.08
https://www.multpl.com/2-year-treasury-rate
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Can the shitter balance a checkbook?
Can the shitter wipe his own greasy-grommet?
Can the shitter utter some adjectives or say a few syllables??
I recall George Bush #1 going into a supermarket and not knowing how to checkout.
These people have in some cases been coddled for their entire lives.
coddle
kŏd′l
transitive verb
To treat indulgently; baby. synonym: pamper.
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I recall George Bush #1 going into a supermarket and not knowing how to checkout.
These people have in some cases been coddled for their entire lives.
coddle
kŏd′l
transitive verb
To treat indulgently; baby. synonym: pamper.
If I remember correctly, when he went to the cashier, and she started scanning items, he was shocked because he had never seen that before.
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Inversion curve:
2 year 4.94 - 10 year 3.86 = 1.08
https://www.multpl.com/2-year-treasury-rate
Nice new trendline, this time double the distance than historic.
More Americans flying in planes in June 2023 than pre pandemic. Meanwhile 98% are calling the US is in recession right now.
US Fed rate should end up somewhere near 7% in 2025.
Giddyup
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US Fed rate should end up somewhere near 7% in 2025.
I don't know about 7% in 2025, but higher definitely into 2024.
It’s an inconvenient truth because nobody wants to believe right now that rates can go higher which would also correlate with higher DXY, higher oil and new ATH S&P.
This is happening. Just waiting for a good reason to turn bullish on higher oil, but the fact that Buffet is long oil and buying every dip is almost good enough.
I've got end of Q1 or Q2 2024 for when the music stops. For short term probably reached the peak in SPX (possibly hit it before FED minutes and then dump) and BTC. Slow grind down for the next few weeks if minutes are bearish.
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wooooooooshhhhhhhhhhhhh
https://www.cnn.com/markets/fear-and-greed
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I've got end of Q1 or Q2 2024 for when the music stops. For short term probably reached the peak in SPX (possibly hit it before FED minutes and then dump) and BTC. Slow grind down for the next few weeks if minutes are bearish.
They decided to dump it instead of a grind down which is even better. Sold at the top, shorted the top and now short profits taken. SPX should bounce soon, either later today or or tomorrow. SPX 4380s is a good zone to long (I'm building a position over the next couple of hours in case it pumps into close, the rest will be overnight and tomorrow) and then I will allow up to a week for it to reach it's upside potential.
I shall return soon to continue my master class in SPX trading
(https://media.tenor.com/wtq8t2pwH94AAAAM/masters-of-the-universe-skeletor-mot-u.gif)
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They decided to dump it instead of a grind down which is even better. Sold at the top, shorted the top and now short profits taken. SPX should bounce soon, either later today or or tomorrow. SPX 4380s is a good zone to long (I'm building a position over the next couple of hours in case it pumps into close, the rest will be overnight and tomorrow) and then I will allow up to a week for it to reach it's upside potential.
I shall return soon to continue my master class in SPX trading
Nicely done. You are always good with the timing.
The data noise on social media right now is insane. Bearish gurus still claiming to be correct with cherry picked data despite -10% from ATH. Entire feed is euphoric bearish with cherry picked data.
I appear to have been the only bastard who can actually understand GDP and employment data correctly. I said ages ago once unemployment cracks we have approx 1 year for it to play out. It still hasn't cracked, US went down to 3.6%. US GDP Q1 positive, Q2 positive.
We have also come from such dizzying heights in 2021-22, the YoY is NOT an indicator for a crashing economy in 2023. If we went +200% in orders and ran out of shit, then come down -50%, we are back to a normal operating economy. We would need to be -75% to have a crashing economy as that would be -50% from the usual run rate.
To match the calls for the ‘biggest crash on record’ claims out there we would need to see -90% YoY in the data. We simply do not see anything close to this and we have full employment.
Anyhoo the below is what my brain tells me if i take the low as 3,491. Level 1-2-3 would be short timeframe - 6mths or so and if nothing happens we run towards level 4-5 out to late 2026 or something like that (i haven't got my model in front of me).
S&P low 3,491
Level 1 - 4,538
Level 2 - 4,887
Level 3 - 4,957
Level 4 - 7,680
Level 5 - 7,924
There is another outlook i did which ponders if the October 2022 sell off was a mistake and instead i take the low from the pandemic. In a nutshell i have 2 outlooks showing a double top which is why i have an S&P long for 4,800 S&P with no fucks given. once there, see what the landscape looks like.
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we are back to a normal operating economy.
This is the key right now. Getbiggers might not like Biden, but under his watch and mostly thanks to his handlers, they have done a great job managing the markets and economy post covid money printing. Such a great job in fact that covid type stymies may well eventually become the new norm.
Anyhoo the below is what my brain tells me if i take the low as 3,491. Level 1-2-3 would be short timeframe - 6mths or so and if nothing happens we run towards level 4-5 out to late 2026 or something like that (i haven't got my model in front of me).
S&P low 3,491
Level 1 - 4,538
Level 2 - 4,887
Level 3 - 4,957
Level 4 - 7,680
Level 5 - 7,924
There is another outlook i did which ponders if the October 2022 sell off was a mistake and instead i take the low from the pandemic. In a nutshell i have 2 outlooks showing a double top which is why i have an S&P long for 4,800 S&P with no fucks given. once there, see what the landscape looks like.
I'm not sure timing wise though as I thought SPX could be hitting 4500 tomorrow (12th) which now looks unlikely. After this I was expecting a significant pull back, possibly as low as 4200 and then make a run at 4800 in September.
I'm now leaning more towards 4800 in Xmas and 5000 in early 2024 and then a sizeable crash.
Circling back to one of your other points regarding house prices. I've seen a lot of the big money long term investors lining up to long REITs over the next 6 to 12 months.
The 30 to 40 yearold demographic in the US is due to peak in the in the next 5 years and that potentially lines up with all the other polices over the same time frame and that could create a serious property boom. The rest of the West typically follows. If people thought house prices were crazy high now, well they will be in for a serious shock over the next 5 to 8 years. Looking to cash buy something myself as an investment.
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Property was an easy call. I nailed it. Even looking back I couldn’t have done anything better or gone harder.
It’s not about demographics.
Why 99% are wrong about property is they apply their experience of higher rates in a low inflation environment. We are not in a low inflation environment therefore their thinking is wrong.
In an inflationary environment higher rates begets higher wages begets higher inflation.
I could write several pages of vomit about it. Basically only spastics think property will crash. In saying that, moving regionally was a core strategy. Where I am has grown +8% YoY meanwhile city is -15%.
On the DXY front I might be wrong out to end 2023 I took a small position in a silver miner. I’m at odds with this one but I’m happy to take a punt.
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They decided to dump it instead of a grind down which is even better. Sold at the top, shorted the top and now short profits taken. SPX should bounce soon, either later today or or tomorrow. SPX 4380s is a good zone to long (I'm building a position over the next couple of hours in case it pumps into close, the rest will be overnight and tomorrow) and then I will allow up to a week for it to reach it's upside potential.
I shall return soon to continue my master class in SPX trading
Closed at 4400 and profits taken. Wait now for CPI
Property was an easy call. I nailed it. Even looking back I couldn’t have done anything better or gone harder.
It’s not about demographics.
Why 99% are wrong about property is they apply their experience of higher rates in a low inflation environment. We are not in a low inflation environment therefore their thinking is wrong.
In an inflationary environment higher rates begets higher wages begets higher inflation.
I could write several pages of vomit about it. Basically only spastics think property will crash. In saying that, moving regionally was a core strategy. Where I am has grown +8% YoY meanwhile city is -15%.
On the DXY front I might be wrong out to end 2023 I took a small position in a silver miner. I’m at odds with this one but I’m happy to take a punt.
The 30-40 demographics peak which btw is the same for US, UK and Oz is more me pointing out that there is plenty of fuel for the fire and that should help RIETs which have been hammered shine when that demographic peaks. It's just not my type of investment though.
I typically just think of as property as one of the original Ponzis. It only goes up and it's all typically government driven. No need to over think this one, especially if you can get easy passive income from it. Don't think I could unravel what makes it tick even if I tried, as you said 99% will end up getting something wrong.
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This is a counter argument I love to use when people tell me the economy is shot.
Toyota lead times at 9mths vs 50 days.
According to media guru logic people sell their houses and become homeless but they’ll be damned if they are cancelling their Toyota ! So regarded.
This is why the Fed is going 2 more times. They’re gunning for the Toyota metric lol :D
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This is a counter argument I love to use when people tell me the economy is shot.
Toyota lead times at 9mths vs 50 days.
According to media guru logic people sell their houses and become homeless but they’ll be damned if they are cancelling their Toyota ! So regarded.
This is why the Fed is going 2 more times. They’re gunning for the Toyota metric lol :D
The UK fucked up its economy worse than most, but neither the Economy nor property is crashing. Those that can't afford their mortgages because of rate rises can temporarily switch to interest only payments (modern day slavery in action here) so no one is busting out.
2 more hikes, new ATHs and then recession. Too many people went all in on the bust too early and are now gonna miss the ATH and then miss the draw down.
I will add though that this next month or so might be bearish so the euphoria of those all in on the short is gonna be wild. Don't see that ending well for them though. I've gone short SPX at 4485. Will add more short positioning if it goes in the 4500-4520 area or wait for confirmation of a pull back and add more shorts lower.
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The UK fucked up its economy worse than most, but neither the Economy nor property is crashing. Those that can't afford their mortgages because of rate rises can temporarily switch to interest only payments (modern day slavery in action here) so no one is busting out.
2 more hikes, new ATHs and then recession. Too many people went all in on the bust too early and are now gonna miss the ATH and then miss the draw down.
I will add though that this next month or so might be bearish so the euphoria of those all in on the short is gonna be wild. Don't see that ending well for them though. I've gone short SPX at 4485. Will add more short positioning if it goes in the 4500-4520 area or wait for confirmation of a pull back and add more shorts lower.
Heard something today which confirms my adjusted model. Basically coming from the horses mouth through an associate so I’m 95% confident now.
5.75% in 2023.
We will go to 9% in 2026.
Oz is lagging because we are going to hike all the way which is what I figured.
This gives us 3yrs of wage inflation and payments reductions to prepare. It also means a commodity run is coming so anything which ran up and sold off is basically relevant regardless of what price. The silver position I took the other day jumped +17% so yeah, it looks like things could get pretty bananas.
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Heard something today which confirms my adjusted model. Basically coming from the horses mouth through an associate so I’m 95% confident now.
5.75% in 2023.
We will go to 9% in 2026.
Oz is lagging because we are going to hike all the way which is what I figured.
This gives us 3yrs of wage inflation and payments reductions to prepare. It also means a commodity run is coming so anything which ran up and sold off is basically relevant regardless of what price. The silver position I took the other day jumped +17% so yeah, it looks like things could get pretty bananas.
I definitely wouldn't bet against another rate hiking cycle taking it 9% and I've been a firm believer that a commodities supercycle will happen in the not to distant future, but we'd need a proper recession first before that kicks off.
Today right now I've got US10yr and DXY bouncing from here in a significant way and an SPX draw down. I'll even try call a time 2PM GMT ;D
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The rate hikes are good. We need to get inflation under control. Of course it hurts some sectors and some investments, but not getting inflation under control would be worse, for the overall economy.
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anyhoo 0.25% will happen next week and this will fit my adjusted model. Next rise I have is 0.25% in the 31/1 FOMC so let’s see.
It also sounds like we will get an actual signal for the S&P to dump. US govt will ban senators from trading shares (publicly).
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US govt will ban senators from trading shares (publicly).
If this actually happens you can be sure all the gains in this cycle are over.
They are "forced to sell" locking in gains on probably a sweet one time tax holiday and magically the market tanks right after.
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If this actually happens you can be sure all the gains in this cycle are over.
They are "forced to sell" locking in gains on probably a sweet one time tax holiday and magically the market tanks right after.
Fed ban was peak 2021 equities 😉
Therefore if we don’t get confirmation of this happening now, it means we look out towards 2025-26 which would also agree with the trends I have posted about 25-26.
It’d be ATH in 25-26 and then goes into the long term range Flex and Lizzy have talked about.
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Heard something today which confirms my adjusted model. Basically coming from the horses mouth through an associate so I’m 95% confident now.
5.75% in 2023.
We will go to 9% in 2026.
Oz is lagging because we are going to hike all the way which is what I figured.
This gives us 3yrs of wage inflation and payments reductions to prepare. It also means a commodity run is coming so anything which ran up and sold off is basically relevant regardless of what price. The silver position I took the other day jumped +17% so yeah, it looks like things could get pretty bananas.
Wage inflation is almost nothing the next 5 years because too many immigrant applicants for work easily replaced
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Wage inflation is almost nothing the next 5 years because too many immigrant applicants for work easily replaced
Not correct.
Higher rates fuel higher wage inflation.
The lowering of rates this past 40yrs coincided with the lowest wage inflation on record. From 2020 we entered an inflationary cycle period which is likely going to play out over 20yrs. We will experience the largest wage inflation ever because rates will be higher and stay higher during this period.
The importing of people is due to low birth rates and has everything to do with keeping a country from collapsing.
Go back to my early posts and i stated the outlook i was working from in a nutshell was:
cars 3x
property 2.5x
wages 0.5x
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But will the wage inflation be positive in real terms?
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But will the wage inflation be positive in real terms?
If measuring in terms of consumption of CO2, no. This meaning you can buy less ‘stuff’ after than you could before. You are poorer.
However…… one could argue it’s wasteful consumption you lose therefore are you really poorer or just being less messy?
From here on out it’s all about managing your cashflow. if you use my guide of +50% rates, you will find your +4% annual pay rise will keep you ahead of rate increases. You will get squeezed on price rises of other things.
You have to make it to the other side though which is why cashflow matters. Avoid resetting your debt clock because then you are only managing an expanding income base coming from wage inflation plus payments ending.
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+0.25% so looks like the revised model is going to be right as it tagged the July rise. +0.25% in the 1st November meeting and we are done.
CPI is almost bottomed now which means the new leg up is in the near future. Toyota lead time down to 200 days so only 4x elevated from historic and mongs still think people will sell their homes to protect their Toyota lol 😂
Q3 GDP tracking positive. No US recession, it’s too late now and Biden will be smarter than 95% of people. Unemployment not cracked yet and timeline is 1yr to peak from when it does crack which generally aligns to a recession signal. We won’t see any recession until late 2025 into 2026.
S&P 5,300 target is before year end.
Equities have priced in 4% rates by end 2024. My revised model has 3.7%-4% in 2024. However the pattern we have with rates is not the norm so it’s an unknown how the Fed will react. target Fed rate is 9% in 2026.
We are euphoric bearish -5% from ATH and 98% calling for a recession. Property to new ATH in 2025 and people will be batshit angry…..Giddy up.
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+0.25% so looks like the revised model is going to be right as it tagged the July rise. +0.25% in the 1st November meeting and we are done.
CPI is almost bottomed now which means the new leg up is in the near future. Toyota lead time down to 200 days so only 4x elevated from historic and mongs still think people will sell their homes to protect their Toyota lol 😂
Q3 GDP tracking positive. No US recession, it’s too late now and Biden will be smarter than 95% of people. Unemployment not cracked yet and timeline is 1yr to peak from when it does crack which generally aligns to a recession signal. We won’t see any recession until late 2025 into 2026.
S&P 5,300 target is before year end.
Equities have priced in 4% rates by end 2024. My revised model has 3.7%-4% in 2024. However the pattern we have with rates is not the norm so it’s an unknown how the Fed will react. target Fed rate is 9% in 2026.
We are euphoric bearish -5% from ATH and 98% calling for a recession. Property to new ATH in 2025 and people will be batshit angry…..Giddy up.
Sticking your neck out in an election year is brave. Anything can happen and probably will.
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1.85T in treasury sale underway for Q3-Q4.
Looks like something big happened in oil drawdowns.
Looks like equity, oil and commodity ATH are in play now. Property ATH coming in 2025.
The most hated rally.
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fich downgrade...
bye bye USA
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fich downgrade...
bye bye USA
Ummmm the US deal only in USD debt. Immune to currency fluctuations when everything is priced in the denomination they own and can print.
US ready to unleash the rest of the first wave of inflation on the world and kick us all in the guts once again.
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Another point for Mayday and another loss for the US collapse crew.
US debt to GDP has improved 5% which is the monetisation of debt I have talked about.
Fuel price here is back at peak (USD1.60/L for my American friends) and not one single word on social media…….
I have price at USD2.18/L to USD2.56/L in 2025. This will happen prior to our proper recession in 2026 and is the first breaking point in consumer energy.
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Q3 GDP coming in over +5% and social media is calling we are in a recession again.
House pipeline remains higher than 2019 levels….. BUT construction time has doubled meaning it takes twice as long to draw down on that pipeline.
Rental vacancies are at lows. Renters starting to enter as buyers due to lack of being able to rent. It’s simply easier to own despite what people think about rates and prices.
This is how an inflationary cycle looks. Total confusion by the masses as everything swings in the opposite direction and they don’t understand why.
CPI has bottomed. We swing up now which is why rates on 1/11 will be +0.25% which I Said months ago.
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Do you still think Aust will raise interest rates now that the government have effectively nationalised the RBA by stealth, appreciate the difference in mortgage types Aust to US and that higher rates there could cause a crash with so many exposed to rising rates. IMO rates should be at least 1% higher and government are driving high inflationary policy and don't want the resulting higher mortgage rates and the financial stress that comes with it to effect their re election position.
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Happy with 3.75% we got in 2020. Could not imagine paying double for my current home.
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USA is the cleanest shirt in the dirty clothes hamper. Until it isn't.
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Do you still think Aust will raise interest rates now that the government have effectively nationalised the RBA by stealth, appreciate the difference in mortgage types Aust to US and that higher rates there could cause a crash with so many exposed to rising rates. IMO rates should be at least 1% higher and government are driving high inflationary policy and don't want the resulting higher mortgage rates and the financial stress that comes with it to effect their re election position.
Australia moved rates up with CPI. Short lag which is fairly typical. So us stopping at 4.1% signaled we had turned the corner of peak CPI. No need to us to hike here. RBA is autistic awesome so likely we hold for 2yrs or whatever and go up again in 2026 or something as I’m assuming we go higher.
The US….. well you lot raised WAY too late. Never waited that long in responding to CPI before. Rates were 0.8% vs 9% CPI and then hiked to oblivion well after CPi had peaked and backed off. This means the inflation cycle was already fixing itself therefore any move above 1% is technically an overtighten due to timing lag.
The US has done this on purpose remember so they have a plan. because it’s a ‘first’ I have nothing to read off but it’s possible the huge lag was done to keep rates up above 5% on purpose ie no cuts then let inflation kick up higher. Rates are inflationary so keeping them up is what drives wages and prices.
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Mines 2.75 on a 15 year note. I thought about refinancing back in 2019-2020 and to refinance on a ten year would’ve put it down to 2.1 and would’ve paid off at the same time, and saved me about $400 a month. Like an idiot I slept on that and didn’t fill out the paperwork because Truist was being difficult with the refi because I had filed an extension on my taxes so I said fuck it and didn’t go through with it. Only good thing is that I’ve paid down enough on it to be able to stroke a check next year to have it paid off. Could theoretically do it this year but I doubt I’ll do it.
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Mines 2.75 on a 15 year note. I thought about refinancing back in 2019-2020 and to refinance on a ten year would’ve put it down to 2.1 and would’ve paid off at the same time, and saved me about $400 a month. Like an idiot I slept on that and didn’t fill out the paperwork because Truist was being difficult with the refi because I had filed an extension on my taxes so I said fuck it and didn’t go through with it. Only good thing is that I’ve paid down enough on it to be able to stroke a check next year to have it paid off. Could theoretically do it this year but I doubt I’ll do it.
No need to refinance. Cheat the bank out of their profit on interest by prepaying the principal every month. Send a check to the bank for the mortgage payment and a separate check where you write in the memo to be applied to principal only. Get yourself an amortization schedule for your mortgage. Many years ago I was so ignorant about mortgages. A Coworker sat me down and explained how to shorten the loan and how to keep the bank from making a mint on the interest. This seems like common sense but I didn't know it at the time. He showed me an amortization schedule for a 30 year fixed mortgage. 360 monthly payments. For the sake of illustration he showed my payment one could be $1000 with 50 bucks going to principal reduction. $950 is going to the bank in interest. When you get to the end of a 30 year fixed mortgage you still have the same $1000 payment but now 50 is going to the bank for interest and $950 is paying off the loan. Every month the ratios change. He taught me you can track your progress by giving extra every month especially in the first 15 years of the loan and I would see how far it moved me down the chart. My first house was a 30 year loan. In 14 years I was nearly finished paying it off. Used the money from that sale to my what for me is my dream house. I have three years to go on this mortgage. I will ride it out for two more years then pay the last year off completely. Property taxes are sick in NJ with many paying over 10K. Seniors get to lock their property taxes so it can't increase. Can't wait to file that paper work.
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No need to refinance. Cheat the bank out of their profit on interest by prepaying the principal every month. Send a check to the bank for the mortgage payment and a separate check where you write in the memo to be applied to principal only. Get yourself an amortization schedule for your mortgage. Many years ago I was so ignorant about mortgages. A Coworker sat me down and explained how to shorten the loan and how to keep the bank from making a mint on the interest. This seems like common sense but I didn't know it at the time. He showed me an amortization schedule for a 30 year fixed mortgage. 360 monthly payments. For the sake of illustration he showed my payment one could be $1000 with 50 bucks going to principal reduction. $950 is going to the bank in interest. When you get to the end of a 30 year fixed mortgage you still have the same $1000 payment but now 50 is going to the bank for interest and $950 is paying off the loan. Every month the ratios change. He taught me you can track your progress by giving extra every month especially in the first 15 years of the loan and I would see how far it moved me down the chart. My first house was a 30 year loan. In 14 years I was nearly finished paying it off. Used the money from that sale to my what for me is my dream house. I have three years to go on this mortgage. I will ride it out for two more years then pay the last year off completely. Property taxes are sick in NJ with many paying over 10K. Seniors get to lock their property taxes so it can't increase. Can't wait to file that paper work.
https://www.state.nj.us/treasury/taxation/ptr/
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If you have a 2-3% mortgage you might be better to keep it and buy CDs or money markets at 5% instead of paying it off.
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Australia moved rates up with CPI. Short lag which is fairly typical. So us stopping at 4.1% signaled we had turned the corner of peak CPI. No need to us to hike here. RBA is autistic awesome so likely we hold for 2yrs or whatever and go up again in 2026 or something as I’m assuming we go higher.
The US….. well you lot raised WAY too late. Never waited that long in responding to CPI before. Rates were 0.8% vs 9% CPI and then hiked to oblivion well after CPi had peaked and backed off. This means the inflation cycle was already fixing itself therefore any move above 1% is technically an overtighten due to timing lag.
The US has done this on purpose remember so they have a plan. because it’s a ‘first’ I have nothing to read off but it’s possible the huge lag was done to keep rates up above 5% on purpose ie no cuts then let inflation kick up higher. Rates are inflationary so keeping them up is what drives wages and prices.
They thought all the new money would circulate into the system, prices would rise for a while, and then stop. When it became obvious that inflation was not “transitory,” and the possibility of hyperinflation became real, they shit themselves and raised rates fast.
They all know Mises is right.
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The Jig is up. They got away with the money printing scam for many years because of China’s growth, which was deflationary, offsetting the devaluations. That’s over.
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The Jig is up. They got away with the money printing scam for many years because of China’s growth, which was deflationary, offsetting the devaluations. That’s over.
The first country with paper money was China with the Tang dynasty. When they didn't have enough money to run the bloated government was to print more money. They couldn't back the money printed after awhile. The inflation caused money to become valueless and the government collapsed. This also happened in Venezuela. So many foreign governments backs their money with the US dollar. When they lose faith in the US dollar and back their currency with China, Saudi Arabia or Russia money this country will collapse into inflation that will be beyond painful. Houses will foreclose all over.
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If you have a 2-3% mortgage you might be better to keep it and buy CDs or money markets at 5% instead of paying it off.
Buy a $300K house and see how much you will pay the bank over the course of 30 years. It's outrageous.
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Buy a $300K house and see how much you will pay the bank over the course of 30 years. It's outrageous.
I hear you.
Thank God for amortizing mortgages though or we couldn't buy homes.
I think a woman mathemtician invented them... not positive.
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The first country with paper money was China with the Tang dynasty. When they didn't have enough money to run the bloated government was to print more money. They couldn't back the money printed after awhile. The inflation caused money to become valueless and the government collapsed. This also happened in Venezuela. So many foreign governments backs their money with the US dollar. When they lose faith in the US dollar and back their currency with China, Saudi Arabia or Russia money this country will collapse into inflation that will be beyond painful. Houses will foreclose all over.
Other countries are even worse. At least the US has the biggest companies in the world and the strongest military. No one trusts the CCP’s money. That’s why it’s pegged to the dollar. It’s essentially a world wide race to the bottom.
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Other countries are even worse. At least the US has the biggest companies in the world and the strongest military. No one trusts the CCP’s money. That’s why it’s pegged to the dollar. It’s essentially a world wide race to the bottom.
If the U.S.A. goes down the world will go into another Dark Ages.
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If the U.S.A. goes down the world will go into another Dark Ages.
Chinese Stock Market 5 Year Chart.
That strike you as a growing economy? There’s a YouTube of a Chinese billionaire who came to the US. He said that in China, if you’re a billionaire you either end up dead or in jail. That kind of thing has a chilling effect on an economy.
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Chinese Stock Market 5 Year Chart.
That strike you as a growing economy? There’s a YouTube of a Chinese billionaire who came to the US. He said that in China, if you’re a billionaire you either end up dead or in jail. That kind of thing has a chilling effect on an economy.
Looks more like the Hang Dong Index.
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They thought all the new money would circulate into the system, prices would rise for a while, and then stop. When it became obvious that inflation was not “transitory,” and the possibility of hyperinflation became real, they shit themselves and raised rates fast.
They all know Mises is right.
It was done on purpose. They weren’t wrong about anything as the aim is to entrench inflation which takes 3-5yrs. After that, you achieve screaming fast commodity prices and wage inflation which raises GDP and lowers debt/GDP.
The question is why was such a huge lag used on purpose. The Fed had cuts originally in 2024, the market has priced cuts for 2024. The market was Horrifically wrong on the way up therefore my assumption is they are also wrong on the cuts. So it should be 2024 rates hold and CPI swings higher.
This should mean the lag on raising rates was done on purpose to ensure inflation goes higher and stays higher. The question is whether we go higher than the 70-80s.
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Other countries are even worse. At least the US has the biggest companies in the world and the strongest military. No one trusts the CCP’s money. That’s why it’s pegged to the dollar. It’s essentially a world wide race to the bottom.
Why don't they just change the whole monetary system worldwide? Maybe they will with the Great Reset.
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They thought all the new money would circulate into the system, prices would rise for a while, and then stop. When it became obvious that inflation was not “transitory,” and the possibility of hyperinflation became real, they shit themselves and raised rates fast.
They all know Mises is right.
Mouse click money
They only have one trick which is to print with inflation masquerading as growth
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It was done on purpose. They weren’t wrong about anything as the aim is to entrench inflation which takes 3-5yrs. After that, you achieve screaming fast commodity prices and wage inflation which raises GDP and lowers debt/GDP.
The question is why was such a huge lag used on purpose. The Fed had cuts originally in 2024, the market has priced cuts for 2024. The market was Horrifically wrong on the way up therefore my assumption is they are also wrong on the cuts. So it should be 2024 rates hold and CPI swings higher.
This should mean the lag on raising rates was done on purpose to ensure inflation goes higher and stays higher. The question is whether we go higher than the 70-80s.
If this is the case and it was done on purpose then Jerome Powell is guilty of lying to the entire United States with his transitory spiele
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Inflate the National Debt away.
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But destroy the dollar in the process
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But destroy the dollar in the process
Destroying the dollar is setting fire to their own house. They’re trying to print as much as they can without Hyperinflation.
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If this is the case and it was done on purpose then Jerome Powell is guilty of lying to the entire United States with his transitory spiele
And?
You vote a group in to run the country for you. You are not voting to have a say in how it is actually run.
But destroy the dollar in the process
The USD is a nuke to others. The BRICS group is a kill list.
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US unemployment came in at 3.8% and its euphoric bears yet again saying this is the beginning.
No, it’s not.
The Spastics continue to mislead. This is what happens when you only look at one piece of data and forget to look at others.
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Its easier to sound smart when you're a bear, anyone can list a cavalcade of impending doom markers just waiting to drop and appear quite the market sage to others online or real life
Bit jt's easier to make money over time when you're a boring uninterested bull eg. Just index the s&p and maybe the NASDAQ and couple of others, then some bonds, and almost guaranteed you will beat the bears given a decent enough time frame
Short term trading too volatile and too much bother, easier just to set and forget and concentrate on important stuff like how gifted phil really is and possible CBS shenanigans in 1980
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Its easier to sound smart when you're a bear, anyone can list a cavalcade of impending doom markers just waiting to drop and appear quite the market sage to others online or real life
Bit jt's easier to make money over time when you're a boring uninterested bull eg. Just index the s&p and maybe the NASDAQ and couple of others, then some bonds, and almost guaranteed you will beat the bears given a decent enough time frame
Short term trading too volatile and too much bother, easier just to set and forget and concentrate on important stuff like how gifted phil really is and possible CBS shenanigans in 1980
Schiff
Steve van metre
Spring to mind. Constant doom and gloom
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Perma-bears, perma-bulkers, etc.
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Its easier to sound smart when you're a bear, anyone can list a cavalcade of impending doom markers just waiting to drop and appear quite the market sage to others online or real life
Bit jt's easier to make money over time when you're a boring uninterested bull eg. Just index the s&p and maybe the NASDAQ and couple of others, then some bonds, and almost guaranteed you will beat the bears given a decent enough time frame
Short term trading too volatile and too much bother, easier just to set and forget and concentrate on important stuff like how gifted phil really is and possible CBS shenanigans in 1980
Yep.
The biggest bear trap right now is the frequently repeated ‘sideways for 10yrs’.
SPX might retest 4K after we get the last +02.5% rate hike 1/11 but then we get an equity ATH along with oil ATH and DXY ATH.
I am just waiting for this last rally leg and then I’m closing my silver miner positions as the USD will rip after this.
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The talking on GDP and property on social media and news is at Mong level right now.
Property price will not collapse. We’ve already had the pullback. It’s done.
The US switched to almost all property loans at 30yr fixed rates post GFC. We are now in an inflationary cycle which means rates go up for a decade or more. Those at 3% do not want to sell at 5%. Those at 3% REALLY don’t want to sell at 7%. Those at 3% are never ever going to sell at 12%. AirBNB homes will go to long term rental market which is also dry as hell.
New build pipeline has slowed right down BUT it now takes 2-3 times longer to deliver which offsets up to a -66% drop in new build demand.
This is what creates the long term shortage. There is no run to the exits because fixed rates deter anybody from letting go of their favourable position. We are then left with an inflationary monetary environment which will lift wages and commodity prices whilst in a shortage which results in a huge property price boom.
Inflation is not entrenched yet which is why property was able to have such a large correction. When inflation is entrenched the shortages and wage inflation apply so much pressure property has it any sell off and keeps rising. The -20% we had makes me hope we are in the ‘priming’ phase which means we have not yet started to true property bullrun.
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Inflate the National Debt away.
I think this is actually the long term plan.
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Yep.
The biggest bear trap right now is the frequently repeated ‘sideways for 10yrs’.
SPX might retest 4K after we get the last +02.5% rate hike 1/11 but then we get an equity ATH along with oil ATH and DXY ATH.
I am just waiting for this last rally leg and then I’m closing my silver miner positions as the USD will rip after this.
EU recession will push DXY higher. I got it going to 109. Might need another catalyst after that.
SPX ATH on earnings and Santa Claus rally. Inflation should boost the bottom line for a lot of companies and that is narrative to send it.
Saudis have already sent oil up.
SPX due another correction though first, might start tomorrow or next week. My target is into the 42XXs and then rally to ATH. That then ends either with a recession scare or an actual recession.
BTC looks to be rallying on technicals, could go higher to 28k+, but will probably give it back and more by end of the year. Sub 20K. More importantly Alts will wash out another 50%. That's when I'm looking to enter. Will you be buying or have you given up completely?
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EU recession will push DXY higher. I got it going to 109. Might need another catalyst after that.
SPX ATH on earnings and Santa Claus rally. Inflation should boost the bottom line for a lot of companies and that is narrative to send it.
Saudis have already sent oil up.
SPX due another correction though first, might start tomorrow or next week. My target is into the 42XXs and then rally to ATH. That then ends either with a recession scare or an actual recession.
BTC looks to be rallying on technicals, could go higher to 28k+, but will probably give it back and more by end of the year. Sub 20K. More importantly Alts will wash out another 50%. That's when I'm looking to enter. Will you be buying or have you given up completely?
Or maybe you won't be buying if it never goes to those levels? I personally just see the dollar losing value and keep losing value. All this BS talk about the dollar being strong is a joke.
Because of tax implications I am currently completely turned off from trading, or selling. Whatever I have I am hodling and staking. Yeah, I'll have to pay taxes on the staking yield. I will probably sell some to take care of that. Taxes suck!
https://www.coingecko.com/research/publications/the-cost-of-iphone-bitcoin-ether
(https://s3.amazonaws.com/assets.coingecko.com/app/public/ckeditor_assets/pictures/4378/content_Cost_of_an_iPhone__in_Bitcoin.png)
(https://s3.amazonaws.com/assets.coingecko.com/app/public/ckeditor_assets/pictures/4381/content_Cost_of_an_iPhone__in_Ether.png)
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Or maybe you won't be buying if it never goes to those levels? I personally just see the dollar losing value and keep losing value. All this BS talk about the dollar being strong is a joke.
Because of tax implications I am currently completely turned off from trading, or selling. Whatever I have I am hodling and staking. Yeah, I'll have to pay taxes on the staking yield. I will probably sell some to take care of that. Taxes suck!
There is nothing better than the US dollar, nothing comes close. I've been saying that since peak FUD when DXY was at 100. And it's not because the $ is strong and amazing, it's because every other alternative is considerably worse.
Everything is pointing to an ALT washout. DXY climbing and evaporating liquidity is a death sentence for ALTs. I would say a 50% washout on ALTS from here is actually pretty conservative, especially if there is a US recession. Even it doesn't drop to those levels BTC dominance having a run up gives a great indicator for an entry with ALTs and that's looking likely to be in late Q4.
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Not even Trump can fix America's debt problems. It will have to reset. The debt is not going away.
Total US debt is approaching $200 trillion. There is nothing that can be done to fix that, without some major reset.
https://www.usdebtclock.org/
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There is nothing better than the US dollar, nothing comes close. I've been saying that since peak FUD when DXY was at 100. And it's not because the $ is strong and amazing, it's because every other alternative is considerably worse.
Everything is pointing to an ALT washout. DXY climbing and evaporating liquidity is a death sentence for ALTs. I would say a 50% washout on ALTS from here is actually pretty conservative, especially if there is a US recession. Even it doesn't drop to those levels BTC dominance having a run up gives a great indicator for an entry with ALTs and that's looking likely to be in late Q4.
Yeah, the dollar is the strongest in a pile of shit. Some might argue all the weak hands have already sold out in the ALT market. It did not drop as much as it did in the previous cycle.
BTC dominance has steadily declined. Why would BTC go back to 80% dominance as Saylor predicts?
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1269669/bitcoin-dominance-historical-development/
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Yeah, the dollar is the strongest in a pile of shit. Some might argue all the weak hands have already sold out in the ALT market. It did not drop as much as it did in the previous cycle.
BTC dominance has steadily declined. Why would BTC go back to 80% dominance as Saylor predicts?
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1269669/bitcoin-dominance-historical-development/
I'm looking at an Altcoin price in terms of BTC not in terms of USD. I'm not expecting ALTS to reach their previous cycles lows, but they should drop lower priced in Btc and that can happen both if BTC drops lower or goes higher. That type of washout doesn't actually need any more ALT selling, just needs no buying, or less buying than BTC.
Smaller moves in BTC dominance are more meaningful now than in previous cycles. That's because more people sit in stable coins now than last cycle, which eats into BTC dominance. ETH also isn't as volatile as it was in the past, so it won't be giving everything back like in the last cycle. That btc dominance pump from ETH won't be there this time.
BTC dominance at around 60% would be the equivalent of around 75% BTC dominance 4 years ago.
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Will you be buying or have you given up completely?
You’re back!
I don’t say much on crypto because the exit isn’t for a while yet. Yes I have one last chunk in waiting which is for a nuke scenario.
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Couple of long term double bottoms probably gonna break in the near future. I like to fade these. They’ll probably give way eventually but there’s typically a few fakes first.
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I'm looking at an Altcoin price in terms of BTC not in terms of USD. I'm not expecting ALTS to reach their previous cycles lows, but they should drop lower priced in Btc and that can happen both if BTC drops lower or goes higher. That type of washout doesn't actually need any more ALT selling, just needs no buying, or less buying than BTC.
Smaller moves in BTC dominance are more meaningful now than in previous cycles. That's because more people sit in stable coins now than last cycle, which eats into BTC dominance. ETH also isn't as volatile as it was in the past, so it won't be giving everything back like in the last cycle. That btc dominance pump from ETH won't be there this time.
BTC dominance at around 60% would be the equivalent of around 75% BTC dominance 4 years ago.
I just checked my crypto portfolios and some of the alts I have already dropped 90% from ATH. But overall my portfolio dropped around 60-65% from ATH. The only reason it held a bit better is because of my ETH holdings and staking rewards.
I also don't see alts retracing back to previous lows. That would completely invalidate their use case because things are more expensive now. Going back to previous lows would actually be worse and indicate a complete decline in value. Retail money = dumb money. All they have to do is HODL and be patient.
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I just checked my crypto portfolios and some of the alts I have already dropped 90% from ATH. But overall my portfolio dropped around 60-65% from ATH. The only reason it held a bit better is because of my ETH holdings and staking rewards.
I also don't see alts retracing back to previous lows. That would completely invalidate their use case because things are more expensive now. Going back to previous lows would actually be worse and indicate a complete decline in value. Retail money = dumb money. All they have to do is HODL and be patient.
I know the US has a wash sale rule, but I'm sure there must be some way to sell at a loss (and later rebuy) to offset tax from other areas
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You’re back!
I don’t say much on crypto because the exit isn’t for a while yet. Yes I have one last chunk in waiting which is for a nuke scenario.
I was genuinely in the Dubai India region for business/holiday ;D
Interesting permabull chart I think you'll enjoy. It goes up for another decade and then sideways for 16-18 years.
(https://s.yimg.com/ny/api/res/1.2/1urw_5sKEdxfJqdJc62ycA--/YXBwaWQ9aGlnaGxhbmRlcjt3PTk2MDtoPTUyMjtjZj13ZWJw/https://media.zenfs.com/en/business_insider_articles_888/dd28336900003de533aae55732611643)
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I was genuinely in the Dubai India region for business/holiday ;D
Interesting permabull chart I think you'll enjoy. It goes up for another decade and then sideways for 16-18 years.
(https://s.yimg.com/ny/api/res/1.2/1urw_5sKEdxfJqdJc62ycA--/YXBwaWQ9aGlnaGxhbmRlcjt3PTk2MDtoPTUyMjtjZj13ZWJw/https://media.zenfs.com/en/business_insider_articles_888/dd28336900003de533aae55732611643)
LoL nice 😂
On face value that chart looks magic but it’s not correct as the economic productivity boom will occur in 2030 onwards.
the 3 photos I attached are S&P vs inflationary CPI pumps. I look for 3 pumps. Post 3 pumps it’s up only for a decade plus.
IMO follow the 40s for now. GDP is very nice right now, unemployment hasn’t cracked, consumers are adjusting to higher rates, equities are priced on shit earnings which they will outperform.
From the bottom of CPI equities should rally something like 2yrs before the next sell off begins. Doesn’t mean we won’t have a correction in Sep-Nov 2023 period.
We need to wait for the next CPI around August 2026 to see where rates are and what kind of equity sell off we get and how CPI comes down. In early 2029 you could be in a case of going all in on equities and riding it for 15yrs.
We need to wait for 2026 to occur
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LoL nice 😂
On face value that chart looks magic but it’s not correct as the economic productivity boom will occur in 2030 onwards.
the 3 photos I attached are S&P vs inflationary CPI pumps. I look for 3 pumps. Post 3 pumps it’s up only for a decade plus.
IMO follow the 40s for now. GDP is very nice right now, unemployment hasn’t cracked, consumers are adjusting to higher rates, equities are priced on shit earnings which they will outperform.
From the bottom of CPI equities should rally something like 2yrs before the next sell off begins. Doesn’t mean we won’t have a correction in Sep-Nov 2023 period.
We need to wait for the next CPI around August 2026 to see where rates are and what kind of equity sell off we get and how CPI comes down. In early 2029 you could be in a case of going all in on equities and riding it for 15yrs.
We need to wait for 2026 to occur
I was initially thinking a similar timeline to you, but then I started thinking about AI and the productivity boom that would come with it.
However before any actual productivity boo there will potentially be the wild Dot.com and crypto type speculation. I'm already hearing about some of the more degenerate funds telling their people to forget about crypto and start focusing at AI.
I was originally dismissive about the AI hype, but I'll be looking to ride that bubble for the next decade. Also crypto AI projects for the next run.
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I definitely wouldn't bet against another rate hiking cycle taking it 9% and I've been a firm believer that a commodities supercycle will happen in the not to distant future, but we'd need a proper recession first before that kicks off.
Today right now I've got US10yr and DXY bouncing from here in a significant way and an SPX draw down. I'll even try call a time 2PM GMT ;D
The trading master class continues. DXY has put in 10 green weekly candles since this post. It's close to resistance now, so time to exit. US10y higher and SPX doing just what I said.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F6gp3rAWAAArIHw?format=webp&name=small)
EU recession will push DXY higher. I got it going to 109. Might need another catalyst after that.
SPX ATH on earnings and Santa Claus rally. Inflation should boost the bottom line for a lot of companies and that is narrative to send it.
Saudis have already sent oil up.
SPX due another correction though first, might start tomorrow or next week. My target is into the 42XXs and then rally to ATH. That then ends either with a recession scare or an actual recession.
BTC looks to be rallying on technicals, could go higher to 28k+, but will probably give it back and more by end of the year. Sub 20K. More importantly Alts will wash out another 50%. That's when I'm looking to enter. Will you be buying or have you given up completely?
SPX started dropping the very next day and is down 4.3% since this post. Puts and spreads are closed for some serious gains!
SPX has been trading in a channel for nearly a year now. Next week 4260-80 would be the approx bottom of the channel so there is potential to bounce off there. DXY dropping will help help equities bounce. Data also suggests SPX having a bad August and Sept typically gives us a very bullish last quarter.
Also JPM long puts (part of the JPM collar) are at 4220. The liquidity down there can act as a magnet for price. There is also a gap from June between 4230 and 4240. If bearish sentiment is strong early on next week then every chance SPX runs to low 42XX. Dropping below this would be very bearish. Need to see it happen by Wednesday night/thursday, otherwise it's very unlikely to happen.
October keep an eye out for DXY and oil dropping, then wait for a base to build sub 4300 on SPX and get ready to go long for the rest of the year. Potential mid October bear trap may also provide some nice scalping opportunities, otherwise it looks like clear sailing.
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Ive been waiting for 4,200 for a while as the retest.
A test of the mid point and a hold is high probability the bottom.
A test of the bottom is next odds to happen 13 months after the previous bottom which means November 2023. A run to the bottom would be S&P around 3,864.
My personal view is we test the midpoint at 4,200 and bounce.
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Ive been waiting for 4,200 for a while as the retest.
A test of the mid point and a hold is high probability the bottom.
A test of the bottom is next odds to happen 13 months after the previous bottom which means November 2023. A run to the bottom would be S&P around 3,864.
My personal view is we test the midpoint at 4,200 and bounce.
What's your end of year target for the S&P?
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What's your end of year target for the S&P?
Dunno 🤷♂️ Flex and Lizzy will have shorter term stuff and they are really good at it.
We are in a multi year uptrend to an ATH. I only look at milestones which was 1/11 rate rise and here the target is 4,200 and I’ll go full risk.
Next milestone for a probable sell off like this one is around April 2025. Milestone after that is May 2027. Either of those could be -35% from ATH.
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SPX building the base for a turnaround I mentioned in my last post.
As long as the data release isn't red hot tomorrow, the SPX shouldn't drop below 4200. Might not even touch 4240 again.
After that the SLD period might provide some volatile price action, but October should UPtober. Time to start planning an entry.
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I’m patient. I’ll wait.
We will take 4,200.
Market not even considering the +0.25% rise 1/11 I said was coming many months ago ;)
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I’m patient. I’ll wait.
We will take 4,200.
Market not even considering the +0.25% rise 1/11 I said was coming many months ago ;)
I'm still waiting too, just watching more closely.
I don't think we'll see another 0.25 rise though as they seem to have gone with the strategy of holding for longer at this level. There hasn't been much bullish data coming out recently to push them to hike either. It's mostly been neutral or bearish.
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https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trader-says-bitcoin-crypto-markets-093508599.html
Trader Says Bitcoin and Crypto Markets Need ‘Chaos’ for Price Growth
Bitcoin (BTC) and ether (ETH) remained little changed over the past 24 hours amid tepid price catalysts and fading volumes in both spot and futures markets.
The price of bitcoin appeared set to retake the $27,000 level early Wednesday, but the rally was turned back alongside a renewed slide in the U.S. stock market.
FxPro markets analyst Alex Kuptsikevich told CoinDesk in a daily note that while cryptocurrencies saw increased buying equity markets were under the most pressure as the dollar was gaining momentum. However, this momentum didn't last long, which dampened bullish outlooks.
“These growth impulses promise to remain a bull trap, offering the best opportunity to sell on the upside,” Kuptsikevich said.
The trader added that the crypto sector could need banking problems or uncertainty about the solvency of governments to generate sustainable growth momentum.
“Recent moves in bond markets show that something like this is brewing,” Kuptsikevich explained, stating that bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies “need financial chaos for growth.”
Meanwhile, alternative tokens were some of the only volatile assets in the crypto market as bitcoin cash (BCH) jumped 8% and DeFi protocol Maker’s MKR tokens rose 7%. Growth in MKR could be tied to an increase in wallet balances holding the token on exchanges, indicating demand.
The CoinDesk Market Index (CMI), a broad-based index of hundreds of tokens, rose 0.95% in the past 24 hours.
The U.S. Federal Reserve’s recent comments suggested that interest rates may remain high for some time to come, jolting broader markets in the U.S. as traders priced in inflation fears.
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https://finance.yahoo.com/news/valkyrie-gets-approval-start-buying-212324387.html
Valkyrie Gets Approval to Start Buying ETH Futures For its Existing Bitcoin ETF
Asset manager Valkyrie started buying Ether (ETH) futures contracts, after getting approval to convert its existing bitcoin futures exchange traded fund (ETF) to a two-for-one investment vehicle.
"Today, the Valkyrie Bitcoin Strategy ETF (Nasdaq: $BTF) began adding exposure to Ether futures contracts, making it the first US ETF to provide exposure to Ether and Bitcoin futures contracts under one wrapper," a spokesperson told CoinDesk in an email statement.
Valkyrie was first to get approval for ETH futures ETF among other firms, as it "supplemented its prospectus and updated risk disclosures related to Ether futures," said the spokesperson.
The fund's new strategy to combine both ETH and BTC futures contract into one ETF will be formally effective on Oct. 3 and the name will be updated to Valkyrie Bitcoin and Ether Strategy ETF, while the ticker will remain BTF.
The fund will join other entities that filed to start ETH futures ETF, including Volatility Shares Ether Strategy ETF, Bitwise Ethereum Strategy ETF, VanEck Ethereum Strategy ETF, Roundhill Ether Strategy ETF, ProShares Short Ether Strategy ETF, ProShares Ether Strategy ETF and Grayscale Ethereum Futures ETF.
Earlier today, VanEck, the $77.8 billion asset under management firm, said that its preparing to roll out its Ethereum futures exchange-traded fund (ETF).
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Gold and silver have hit the shitter in a big way. Oil has dropped but DXY and 10y aren't showing signs of turnings. VIX futures in backwardation (typically proceeds a market nuke) and SPX is looking bipolar.
Things are not looking good right now. If DXY and 10y don't reverse soon then it might be time to start planning for a market dump.
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Midpoint was hit.
Pullback of 8.4% is no man’s land. Likely pullback during inflationary cycles is -14% which makes 3,960 a high probability target which is the bottom Range. I still like Novemberas the bottom month.
My entire feed has gone euphoric bearish. Talk of collapse and all sorts of shit.