Do you still think Aust will raise interest rates now that the government have effectively nationalised the RBA by stealth, appreciate the difference in mortgage types Aust to US and that higher rates there could cause a crash with so many exposed to rising rates. IMO rates should be at least 1% higher and government are driving high inflationary policy and don't want the resulting higher mortgage rates and the financial stress that comes with it to effect their re election position.
Australia moved rates up with CPI. Short lag which is fairly typical. So us stopping at 4.1% signaled we had turned the corner of peak CPI. No need to us to hike here. RBA is autistic awesome so likely we hold for 2yrs or whatever and go up again in 2026 or something as I’m assuming we go higher.
The US….. well you lot raised WAY too late. Never waited that long in responding to CPI before. Rates were 0.8% vs 9% CPI and then hiked to oblivion well after CPi had peaked and backed off. This means the inflation cycle was already fixing itself therefore any move above 1% is technically an overtighten due to timing lag.
The US has done this on purpose remember so they have a plan. because it’s a ‘first’ I have nothing to read off but it’s possible the huge lag was done to keep rates up above 5% on purpose ie no cuts then let inflation kick up higher. Rates are inflationary so keeping them up is what drives wages and prices.
