Maybe a daily heart attack trend We have some serious intraday range expansion right now. Just phenomenal to say the least. BSC trading like a tech stock lately.... This is fun
That what I'm talking about B.C, some crazy action today and this past couple of weeks. Volatility is through the roof and so is my blood pressure lol
I made out handsomely today catching the massive down swing in the ES late in the evening and then riding it back up for a round trip of over 30 ES points per contract. Today was some manipulated action by some of the big institutions, there was also a rumour about GS (Goldman Sachs) going to announce something about one of their funds.
This type of action really is going to hit nearly stops of both bears and the bulls and it is inevitable if you are a daytrader. My advice on times like these is wait for Support and Resistance zones to be hit on each move up or down before thinking of entering a trade. On my own analysis i like to have clusters of Fib levels as well as S/R levels, i use these together to help me identify important confluence zones which have amazing probabilities of holding.
Due to trading range it seems we are bouncing of key S/R value very well, however, make sure you enter either on a reversal bar or a retest of previous holding price level. The funds are manipulating some of the action to hit the stops of the weak players so make sure you pick entries carefully.
I'm still expecting another big drop next couple of weeks and it seems like these recent rallies and retracements are reaching their peaks. However, being a daytrader i trade what i see and the very long term macro picture is of little use to me.
Maybe tomorrow i will post a chart of ES price action just to show people that most TA indicators are useless and you can trade far better using just price. In my own trading i use the following indicators: RSI, MA's and Bollinger bands. I rarely use them to initiate a postion as they lagg and are only used for overall picture which can then conform with my current view on the days action.
Apart from that i use: Market profile, S/R levels, FIB levels, Elliot wave analysis (only if it is clear), Candlesticks, Volume. All my analysis is done top-down approach: hence i start with weekly then daily, 240 min, 55min, 15 min and then 5min timeframes to get the current trend the market is in. I use the 15 min and 5 min for pinpoint entries.
Also, let me note that trading is all about an edge, if you have no edge you cannot survive day trading. You might do better INVESTING i.e. picking stocks for the very long term. However, trading is usually daily or weekly positions and without an edge in your trading you will always lose in the long run.
When traders talk about an edge, often individuals get confused and think they are talking about some mathematical algorithm or some supercomputer to help determine where the market is going. This is incorrect, an edge is the same as a casino has e.g. over N number turns they have the statistical odds in their favour of beating you. You might beat the house at black jack 1 day, 1 week, 1 year but after about 10,000 hands dealt you will always revert back to the mean and they will always beat you. This is the same in the markets so you need an edge to be a winner in the long run.
Getting the edge is not as hard as it seems: a simple example of an edge is having very small stops and then letting your winners ride out longer than your stops. This is one way i increase the odds in my favour: when i initiate a position in ES futures i have 3 units: each units is comprised of a number of contacts and is determined by the particular setup presented by the markets. These setups are predefined and have been back-tested to give me the best odds of each one being successful. I will then allocate number of contracts to each 3 of my units according to my model. My stops on the ES are rarely over 2 ES points - some people think that is crazy, especially with the volatility today. However, i can prove time and time again you can always get within these stops as long as you position correctly and wait for price to hit your zone.
Now i have tight 2 points stops so that defines my risk e.g. 2 points for all 3 units. My targets are based on my chart analysis and where i think we can head - my first target for unit 1 lies within 4-8 ES points, the other 2 targets then allowed to run onto important reversal zones. I then have a trailing stop once 1st unit target has been hit.
Now this is a simple edge: my risk to reward is about 1:3. My system backtested indicates that i have 63% winning entries. Now as long as unit 3 hits for a home-run every now and again it mean my equity curve goes through the roof. It also means i rarely have a losing week and minimal drawdowns.
Also, my risk is very very small on each trade which allows you never to blow-up and lose everything. Simple system, simple edge, and it will always perform.
I don't know if this is of help to anyone but if so then let me know and i will post some price action charts of ES -eminis futures tomorrow and maybe make some live calls.