DREAM.7 Preview, Part 1: The Featherweights

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This weekend, while fans are busy ignoring and/or complaining about UFC 96, Fighting & Entertainment Group will be jumpstarting the most thrilling year of fights for sub-155 weight classes in MMA history.

The next 30 days will see DREAM and Sengoku each open their own year-long 16-man featherweight grand prix. Both are absolutely thick with talent from Japan, Korea, America, Brazil and beyond, featuring a total of 8 of Bloody Elbow's Top 25 Meta-Ranked Featherweights as well as several highly-touted debuting prospects. All this is not to mention the (mostly) exciting night of action at WEC 39 last weekend, a great looking lineup for WEC 40 on April 5th, and the upcoming 145-pound bracket of the ESPN Deportes-televised Bellator FC.

This started as a preview post, but I figured it might be nice to make some predictions too, since we generally only get around to prognosticating UFC PPVs and Fight Nights 'round these parts. I've spent the last few days submerged in stats and watching every piece of tape I could find, and I've emerged even more geeked than before about this unprecedented period of featherweight activity.

Leave your thoughts and picks in the comments section - I'll be back tomorrow with Part 2, featuring the rest of the FWGP opening round as well as the night's superfights.



#10 FW/#11 BW Masakazu Imanari (15-6-1) vs. #4 BW Atsushi Yamamoto (12-5-1)

Fight of the Night pick #1. DEEP's former featherweight and current bantamweight champ, the leglock master Imanari reversed his fortunes last August with a 30-second submission of Hiroshi Umemura just three months after a demoralizing title loss to Dokonjonosuke Mishima (his first in three years). The "Ashikan Judan" - ranked #10 in Bloody Elbow's February featherweight meta-rankings - is also the last fighter to defeat current WEC 145-pound beast Mike Thomas Brown, and has to be considered the #2 seed in this unbelievably stacked bracket.

Presumptive #1 seed "KID" Yamamoto's pupil Atsushi (no relation) has also shifted between the 62 and 65kg classes and boasts the solid wrestling pedigree you'd expect from a Krazy Bee, along with a strong defensive ground game. Last September, Yamamoto looked extremely impressive in decisioning the veteran Hideo Tokoro - who coincidentally will face the injured Daiki "DJ.taiki" Hata in the remaining opening round bout at DREAM.8.

Yamamoto has never been submitted in 18 fights, but I have a strong suspicion think that streak ends here. Imanari is bigger and stronger, and has to know that his middling stand-up won't do the trick against the tough Yamamoto. Disclosure: the last time I predicted a first-time submission -- McCullough vs. Cerrone at WEC 36 -- I was completely wrong. Nonetheless...

Masakazu Imanari via Submission, Round 1



#38 BW Abel Cullum (13-2) vs. #21 FW "Wicky Akiyo" Nishiura (9-3-1)

Fight of the Night pick #2. 22-year old Abel Cullum battled his way into MMA's collective consciousness last September, stunning every fight fan outside of New Mexico with his gutsy bantamweight title bout performance against Wilson Reis. It wasn't that Cullum bested the still-undefeated Brazilian - he lost a unanimous decision after five rounds - but that the virtually unknown, cowboy-hatted fighter who'd replaced Bao Quach on three weeks' notice was able to hang tough on both the feet and floor for 25 minutes with EliteXC's most hotly tipped prospect. It was his first defeat since February of 2006, snapping an 11-fight win streak. In December, the versatile Cullum retained his King of the Cage flyweight belt in front of a hometown crowd by submitting recent WEC signee Brett Roller in under two minutes.

Cullum will have his work cut out for him once again as he faces the 2006 Shooto Lightweight Rookie Champion and #21 meta-ranked featherweight Nishiura. (Curiously, Nishiura and Imanari are the only two meta-ranked competitors in the tournament, perhaps due to the fighters' fluctuating weights, but more likely because most sites fail hard at ranking anything under 170 lbs.) Nishiura is a flamboyant personality outside the cage (check his paintings if you haven't had the pleasure) with an unorthodox kickboxing style to match.

I've yet to see tape of "Wicky's" December Cage Force Featherweight Title loss to Yuji Hoshino, but from all reports it was a rather one-sided ground'n'pound beating precipitated by Nishiura's insistence on only throwing flashy power strikes. Hoshino is a larger and vastly more experienced fighter than Cullum, however, and I don't think Abel will take this to the ground with ease. I expect this to go the distance with Nishiura winning narrowly on points.

"Wicky Akiyo" Nishiura via Split Decision





#38 FW Micah Miller (10-2) vs. #13 BW/#34 FW Yoshiro Maeda (23-6-2)

The maddeningly inconsistent though clearly talented brother of TUF 5 alum Cole Miller makes his international debut on the big stage, and with a massive step up in competition. A submission-minded fighter training with Florida's American Top Team, the younger Miller has flitted in and out of the WEC since 2007, most recently losing a controversial TKO stoppage to Massachusetts-based upstart Josh Grispi. In December, he captured the Close Quarters Combat (what?) featherweight belt with a second round RNC submission of Pancrase and IFL veteran Jason Palacios.

An explosive striker with one of the deepest (no pun intended) resumes in the bracket, Maeda is one of three FWGP participants who enters the tournament on the back of two straight WEC losses. While there's certainly no shame in losing to Miguel Torres (in what many considered the Fight of the Year for 2008, no less) or Rani Yahya, many fans predicted that the 27-year-old Featherweight King of Pancrase would be the next big thing in the States' premeir lightweight organization. He's also been beaten soundly by two other GP fighters in Imanari and Hata, though he would avenge the Hata loss five months later, and has KO'd Imanari's opening round opponent.

A year or two from now, I'd be all over Miller to win this fight, and maybe even the tournament. He's long and rangy, and he's shown excellent fundamental BJJ along with knockout power in the short time he's been fighting. But his boxing still looks very raw, and Maeda is too powerful and too experienced to be kept at bay.

Yoshiro Maeda via Unanimous Decision



Takafumi Otsuka (8-3-1) vs. Bibiano Fernandes (3-2)

Fight of the Night pick #3. I'm genuinely surprised DREAM matched up these two studs in the opening round, but it's a very appealing Japan vs. Brazil pairing which fans will eat up.

Fernandes is a fast twitch Brazilian jiu jitsu wizard with a deceptive 3-2 record in MMA; deceptive because those two losses came by way of Top 3 featherweights Urijah Faber and Norifumi Yamamoto in his second and third fights, respectively. (He actually took Urijah down and was controlling his back within the first 30 seconds of their bout; a minute later, Herb Dean was forced to call the fight due to a gushing forehead cut from a Faber elbow, despite Fernandes' vehement protests.) Last year "The Flash" went 2-0 with the Calgary-based Raw Combat promotion.

Otsuka, meanwhile, has amassed a 8-1-1 record in his last ten bouts. In the past five months, he's bested highly regarded Japanese fighters Shoji Maruyama and Masanori Kanehara with decision victories in DEEP, leading many to believe that he's destined for the finals of this tournament.

This may be the toughest bout of the opening round to pick. Otsuka lacks size and reach, but has decent stand-up and dominant wrestling, and has bested far larger fighters than himself in both Japan and Brazil. He's also demonstrated an uncanny ability to power out of nearly any submission his opponent throws at him. While Fernandes is imbued with lightning speed, he has not, to date, shown any great ability to effectively transition his Mundial-winning BJJ skills to suit his MMA career.

Takafumi Otsuka via TKO, Round 1



#27 FW Hiroyuki Takaya (9-6-1) vs. Jong-Won Kim (0-0)

The brawling "Streetfight Bancho" Takaya returns to his homeland after being bounced from the WEC with tough back-to-back losses to Leonard Garcia and Cub Swanson.

Before I started digging last month, I knew nothing anything about Takaya's opponent, though I was intrigued by the fact that he was a highly accomplished judoka (1997 Pacific Rim and Asian Judo Champion) who retired from competition in his prime to become a professional golfer. For the past two years, Kim has been a training partner and cornerman to good friend Dong-Sik Yoon, who claims the 33-year old's striking (as taught by K-1 standout K.MAX) will surprise fans.

I'm going to trust the Donger on this one, especially considering Kim's strong judo background; double especially because I didn't like at all what I saw from Takaya in his lone televised stateside bout, and it's difficult to train specifically for an 0-0 opponent with no footage to watch. Upset pick of the night for "The Man In The Background" via all-night judo throws.

Jong-Won Kim via

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Here's the second half of our look at this wekeend's DREAM.7 card, complete with more slipshod predictions by yours truly. (Here's Part 1, in case you missed it.) Leave your picks in the comments, and make sure to join me back here on Sunday morning (just a couple hours after UFC 96 ends) for live results and commentary. Sleep deprivation is fun!

By the way, HDNet will not be airing DREAM live this time out as they have in the past. (Though they will air the March 20th Sengoku show without delay.) The event will be broadcast on tape delay next Saturday, March 14th. Here's a statement from HDNet Fights CEO Andrew Simon:

HDNet would love to show DREAM live, but the issue is that they are having the event on a Sunday night in Tokyo…it makes for an awful time for people to watch in the U.S. I would love if DREAM held events on Friday or Saturday, then we would air it LIVE. We try to keep our new MMA programming primarily on Fridays and some Saturdays so fans always know when they can catch MMA on HDNet. The Friday the 13th weekend will be incredible on HDNet — DREAM 7 and Affliction Day of Reckoning. With over 35 events planned for this year, HDNet is THE Home for MMA. We are very excited to show the debut of Sengoku LIVE on HDNet in March as well. No decision has been made on DREAM 8 airtime as of today.
Ishida-Nakamura aside, DREAM.7's superfights aren't much to get excited about when stood side-by-side with the show's phenomenal featherweight line-up. But who among us can deny the simple joy of watching Shinya Aoki choke out a gaijin in under 90 seconds? Consider these bouts the rich, unhealthy and completely unnecessary dessert to our non-fat main course. And watch out for this Joe Warren guy...



#2 LW Shinya Aoki (19-3) vs. David Gardner (16-10)

What began as a joke at a press conference has become reality as WAMMA's undisputed lightweight champion (lulz) takes a short notice tune-up bout ("to help sell tickets") before entering DREAM's Welterweight Grand Prix next month.

Since the match was announced, detractors have lambasted Gardner as another Todd Moore or Brian Lo-A-Njoe, a moderately physically threatening but nonetheless virtually harmless record-builder being fed to FEG's scrawny golden child.

And, well, they're right.

In fairness, DREAM's matchmaker is probably working with skewed scouting: Gardner is 3-2 in his last five fights, and two of those wins were impressive first round TKO stoppages at M-1 Challenge shows in Japan and South Korea. But the most meaningful victories on Gardner's resume are over three years old (Ryan Schultz, Rich Clementi) and while the journeyman does possess knockout power - the only known kryptonite to Aoki's spindly submission Superman - his boxing is not technically sound. That's where Aoki gets inside, trips him up (or climbs him like a tree) and end this with a quickness.

Shinya Aoki via Submission, Round 1



#12 LW Mitsuhiro Ishida (17-4-1) vs. #24 FW Daisuke Nakamura (19-9)

Following a devastating TKO at the hands (and feet) of Takanori Gomi, Ishida stunned many by dealing Gilbert Melendez his first career loss, en route to a 3-1 record in 2008. Most recently, the resurgent "Endless Fighter" impressed at the Playboy Mansion with a slick armbarring of wrestler Justin Wilcox in Strikeforce.

The durable DEEP and PRIDE vet Nakamura has faced less sterling competition of late; though he rides an eight fight win streak into the bout, several of those victories were against sub-.500 opponents.

We're looking at one fighter who's still moving toward his apex and one who, while not necessarily on his way down, has been stagnating in a pool of mediocre competition. That said, this would have Fight of the Night written all over it were it not for the dozen featherweights lining the card. I foresee the smaller Ishida outworking, outlasting and ultimately outclassing a fatigable Nakamura in an up-and-down, back-and-forth affair. Caveat: if Nakamura wears his knee-high Pancrase style boots, Ishida's chances for a submission increase tenfold.

Mitsuhiro Ishida via Split Decision





#10 LW Tatsuya Kawajiri (22-5-2) vs. Ross Ebanez (19-6)

Though Kawajiri hasn't competed in DREAM since his hard-fought LWGP loss to Eddie Alvarez last summer, he's spent his downtime well, traveling Japan to spread the gospel of MMA with his "CRUSHER Project" and thoroughly demolishing K-1 vet Kozo Takeda in a kickboxing match on New Years Eve.

Now the "Crusher" aims to impress the world's consensus #1 lightweight by tattooing B.J. Penn's Hilo protege. Though once considered a legitimate prospect, Ebanez has continually faltered on the big stage, dropping turning-point fights to Alvarez, Mike Pyle and Carlos Condit.

Ebanez throws hard, but Kawajiri throws harder and with more accuracy. To me, the only question here is whether Ebanez' chin will hold up. Given Kawajiri's relative inactivity of late, I'll say this goes the distance, but it shouldn't be close.

Tatsuya Kawajiri via Unanimous Decision



Joe Warren (0-0) vs. #9 BW Chase Beebe (12-3)

A two-time NCAA champion at Michigan and one of only five Americans ever to win a World Greco-Roman championship (2006), the debuting Warren brings with him some of the most impressive wrestling credentials ever seen in MMA. He might have brought a medal from Beijing, too, were it not for the positive drug test (his second for marijuana) which led to a two-year suspension, effectively retiring the 31-year old from competition and shifting his focus to MMA. (Suppose that's a bit of an ouroboros situation, since Warren may not have transitioned to fighting if he'd gone to the Olympics, but I digress...)

DREAM is dealing Warren no break by starting him against former WEC bantamweight champ Chase Beebe, himself a decorated collegiate wrestler with a developed submission game. Beebe enters following two straight WEC losses, and was slated to face Mike Easton for the UWC 135-pound strap last month before withdrawing just days prior due to a mysterious knee injury.

Legit concern or not, I think Beebe will look to keep this standing for as long as Warren permits, strong wrestlers tending to cancel one another out. I can't imagine Warren - who trains with the grapple-centric Team Quest  - possessing a sophisticated striking game this early in his career, but those who have trained him praise his otherworldly dedication and drive, and Beebe's hands aren't much to fear either.

Ultimately, I see Warren bringing this to the mat where he'll likely be able to muscle out of Beebe's sub attempts and grind out an upset win in his first fight. We all know betting on a first time fighter is a dice roll, but Warren's background ranks him among the most serious of MMA prospects right out of the gate. I might have picked him here regardless; taking Beebe's potential injury into consideration just seals the deal. Depending on how he performs in this fight and who he's matched against should he make the second round, Warren could be the true dark horse of the tourney.

Joe Warren via Split Decision