So, whats yur position lib? you dont relize how dangrous iran is. we need to nuke them. why do you think we shouldnt?
I do realise how dangerous Iran is...I also know that the internal dynamics of Iran, particularly the demographic power of the more pro western youth (under 25's constitute some 30% of the country) mean that there's a big opening for internal change. As I read recently there is a race between the demographic clock and the nuclear clock, which one will win it as yet uncertain, but in five years the Iranian society will be very different from the one we see today.
The regime (like any autocratic regime) wants to remain in power, there have been many reports that those high up (including Khameni) have become increasingly concerned with Ahmadinejad's behaviour and are looking around for a replacment, notice how Rafsanjani is suddenly being given more air time (a possible more moderate succesor being lined up) Ahmadinejad pissing too many people off is making those up high very nervous, given their desire to stay in power it is a high possibility that if he goes too far Ahmadinejad will be removed and replaced by a more diplomatically minded replacement.
The balance of the middle east is so fragile right now, it seems pretty clear to me that most of the Arab countries are with the West on getting tough on Iran. The second Israel goes in for military strikes that support will evaporate, forget any type of cooperation with the USA for the next Decade. Israel will more than likely lose her alliances with Jordan and Egypt, and I would be very suprised if King Abdullah II could remain in power in Jordan if he maintained a pro western position. That would be a massive loss for us, considering the job in Iraq is not yet done. As for Afghanistan (though i dont know so much about the situation there), one of the Taliban's biggest enemy's is Iran, any chance of cooperation on that front/playing them off against each other will be gone. I doubt the US could hold onto Afghanistan after that, the Pashtun's already fucking hate you, the Hazara's would follow suit and ofcourse the Persian speaking majority Tajiks would leave you as well...I wont garuntee it but I would think that Turkey would also significantly change it's stance toward the US, you have bases there you could well lose them. Not only that you would lose any foothold in the mostly muslim caucaus massively damaging the current strategy against Russia, your only allies left would be Georgia and Armenia.
On top of that, it is well known that Iran estabilished various sleeper cells in Europe, in 2007 a large cell was caught in Germany, though I havent been in Europe for a while last I heard there was still significant Iranian activity going on, any attack would mean a lot of dead Europeans. Then there's Hezbollah, fully reloaded and ready to go again, expect a war with Lebanon and even more destabilisation internally. Syria, which has shown some interest in reaching an agreement with Israel (this is key to Israel's strategy by the way, of creating a geographical buffer zone from Iraq and Iran) would instantly turn back to its old ways and no doubt would become a dangerous enemy (once again)...No doubt the Palestinians would launch another intifada, Hamas would get so much popular support it would be frightening, Abbas would be gone (his power is so flimsy anyway)...there would be no one left to talk to, it would only be endless war as opossed to the current simmering tension that is to a large extent manageable.
Then there's Russia and China. (its late and i cant be arsed to write anymore)
There are clear signs now that the sanctions are going to be seriously ratcheted up if the Iranians dont start playing ball, they could break the country in half if made as severe as some are talking. I think you'll find the tough guys in Iran start talking once their country starts to fall apart around them. It may come to the point where military action has to be taken, but the time is not now, and a serious diplomatic effort would be needed to get people on side, which I really dont think would happen unless the US whore's itself out by offering enormous sums of money to governments in the region to keep them placid.
I think we'd be very lucky if there wasn't WWIII following a Nuke strike on Iran. Believe me many conservatives think this way, not just liberals. To put it simply, Iran can be won over, the ingredients are there...any strike will unite pro-westerners behind the regime, then any chance to secure a democratic Iran will be gone.
