New intrade & Nate Silver 538 numbers

[240 is Back]

They were damn accurate last time around.   What gives?


Romney falling like a brick on Intrade (38.5), Nate Silver downgrades to 32%

http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=743475
and
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/07/22/do-presidential-polls-break-toward-challengers/?hp
 

[240 is Back]

Gallup 7-day average Obama 48% (+2) Romney 44% (-2)

 President Barack Obama has increased his lead, slightly, over Mitt Romney.

A Gallup Poll released Friday showed an increase of two percent for Obama and a decrease of two percent for Romney, with Obama leading 48-44.
 
The data is based on a seven-day rolling average.

“Those who are undecided are further asked if they lean more toward Obama or Romney and their leanings are incorporated into the results,” Gallup reported.” Each seven-day rolling average is based on telephone interviews with approximately 3,050 registered voters; Margin of error is ±2 percentage points.”
 
A Rasmussen Poll released Friday also shows Obama ahead of Romney, but by a smaller margin of 47-46.
 
http://www.examiner.com/article/obama-48-romney-44-gallup-poll

[240 is Back]

crickets?

[Soul Crusher]

Only information that fits into the preconceived narrative the majority of board members want to be true will be discussed. Stop being a party pooper!

Intrade had the mandate losing by 75%.  How did that work out?

 

[240 is Back]

Intrade had the mandate losing by 75%.  How did that work out?

 

it hard to predict what ONE MAN who had a near-death scare will rule on healthcare.

MUCH more scientifically easier to predict the voting habits of 100 mill people.  You can't survey john roberts - you can survey americans.

The fact you expect a wagering organization to be more accurate with 9 people than with 100 milllion people - I don't even know if you are qualified to have a grownup convo here dog.

[Fury]

That's quite the long-winded way of saying it's not accurate.

You're getting crickets because no one but you gives a shit about a betting site that's wrong as often as it is right....kind of like your political predictions the last four years.

[syntaxmachine]

Intrade had the mandate losing by 75%.  How did that work out?

1. Intrade's market data tends to be more accurate than polling data when it comes to predicting the outcomes of elections. It is certainly more accurate than the vomit from pundits that you post on a daily basis. You can look up the research corroborating my statement anytime.

2. I hope it is obvious why Intrade's prediction regarding the S.C. ruling on healthcare isn't a counterexample to the trend mentioned in (1): the S.C. ruling wasn't an election. Derp?

3. 240's post also brings up Nate Silver's work, which also tends to be very accurate.

4. Thus, my point remains: factual information that does not line up with the Approved Narrative of a majority of board members will be ignored. Don't worry, you're not alone in this. Confirmation bias is an extremely common cognitive disorder a wide variety of people suffer from; it just happens to have a more corrosive effect on your ability to think than on the average person's.

[Soul Crusher]

1. Intrade's market data tends to be more accurate than polling data when it comes to predicting the outcomes of elections. It is certainly more accurate than the vomit from pundits that you post on a daily basis. You can look up the research corroborating my statement anytime.

2. I hope it is obvious why Intrade's prediction regarding the S.C. ruling on healthcare isn't a counterexample to the trend mentioned in (1): the S.C. ruling wasn't an election. Derp?

3. 240's post also brings up Nate Silver's work, which also tends to be very accurate.

4. Thus, my point remains: factual information that does not line up with the Approved Narrative of a majority of board members will be ignored. Don't worry, you're not alone in this. Confirmation bias is an extremely common cognitive disorder a wide variety of people suffer from; it just happens to have a more corrosive effect on your ability to think than on the average person's.

Gallup and Ras are the two best out there over time. 

[240 is Back]

Gallup and Ras are the two best out there over time. 

Do you claim them to be more accurate than 538.com?

[Soul Crusher]

Do you claim them to be more accurate than 538.com?

yes 

[240 is Back]

yes 

Numbers do not lie.  Gallup was off by 2% in 2008.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/9442/election-polls-accuracy-record-presidential-elections.aspx

Rass was off by 1% in 2008
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rasmussen_Reports#2008

538 was dead on accurate at a 6.1% margin of victory.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FiveThirtyEight#Final_projections_of_2008_election

So you can "feel" or "believe" or "really have a strong suspicion" that they are more accurate.

But that won't make it so.