Author Topic: Ebola is running rampant in Nigeria  (Read 10047 times)

MikMaq

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Re: Ebola is running rampant in Nigeria
« Reply #50 on: October 21, 2014, 06:26:35 AM »
Aids is a syndrome, a comglomerate of symptoms. HIV is a virus that causes this, there is some literature showing non hiv aids, however I am unsure if that was rebutted.

Its how magic has hiv but is not sick.
Jesus christ you realize most of us, with descent education systems, were educated on this shit when we were like 10?


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Re: Ebola is running rampant in Nigeria
« Reply #51 on: October 21, 2014, 06:39:24 AM »
The whole Ebola issue is worth a good laugh. Not because of the possibility that this disease could mutate and spread quickly, but rather that the same people saying how this is a "non-issue" are also the ones telling us that "Global Climate Change" will kill us all in a few years :)

As far as how easily Ebola spreads, the jury will probably be out for a while. The last big killer disease resulted in the Pandemic of 1918-1919. Believe it or not, scientists are STILL trying to figure out how this relatively weak virus went ballistic:

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/02/080218172441.htm

According to the World Health Organization, Ebola can have a mortality rate as high as 70%. Contrast that to the 1918 flu that had a mortality rate of under 20%: http://www.influenzavirusnet.com/1918-flu-pandemic/mortality.html And still, over 20 million people died worldwide according to estimates.

Back then the population of the world was about 2 billion. A lot sparser than today's 8 billion. Add in the frequency of travel by jets and we have a whole new dynamic of disease vectoring.

So any thinking person would be incredibly cautious regarding this and similar diseases. But no, that's not what we are seeing. This is a political issue- how this is being handled makes the already weak presidency of Barack Obama look a lot weaker - and even more so, incredibly incompetent. So out of the woodwork come "closet experts" on epidemiology who are in fact apologists. Anything to prop up this failed president  and by extension, the inept CDC. Politics over people.

The more things change, the more they stay the same.



Spot on.

I dont understand why so many peoplr are just dismissomg the serious nature of what could happen....

I dont want hysteria, far from it... just a healthy but if caution.

What worries me isnt the virus... its this apathetic 'ah, itll never happen, ebola sucks as a virus' mentality.... where theyre saying one thing but itd spreading like wildfire.

That will cause hysteria, if and when people realize that what theyre being told by the science textbooks doesnt match up with the reality on the ground.

And thats whats scares me, the hysteria of stupid people flocking together violently, looting, etc.

I feel like if they took it seriously and approached it with a healthy amount of caution, itd be a lot easier to keep the people calm than it is telling them they have nothing to worry about and then trying to explain why people in hazmat and NBC/MOPP/whatever the fuck protective suits keep getting it.

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Re: Ebola is running rampant in Nigeria
« Reply #52 on: October 21, 2014, 08:19:40 AM »
Spot on.

I dont understand why so many peoplr are just dismissomg the serious nature of what could happen....

I dont want hysteria, far from it... just a healthy but if caution.

What worries me isnt the virus... its this apathetic 'ah, itll never happen, ebola sucks as a virus' mentality.... where theyre saying one thing but itd spreading like wildfire.

That will cause hysteria, if and when people realize that what theyre being told by the science textbooks doesnt match up with the reality on the ground.

And thats whats scares me, the hysteria of stupid people flocking together violently, looting, etc.

I feel like if they took it seriously and approached it with a healthy amount of caution, itd be a lot easier to keep the people calm than it is telling them they have nothing to worry about and then trying to explain why people in hazmat and NBC/MOPP/whatever the fuck protective suits keep getting it.

It's not though, the spanish flu was airborned at in 1918! lol. We never had anti-virals or half the shit we have today.It is being approached with alot of caution.

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Re: Ebola is running rampant in Nigeria
« Reply #53 on: October 21, 2014, 08:31:32 AM »
It's not though, the spanish flu was airborned at in 1918! lol. We never had anti-virals or half the shit we have today.It is being approached with alot of caution.
Ah yes, the "were so much more advanced it couldn't happen to us" mindset.

We all know the words of the textbook man... the fact remains that its still spreading out of control in African countries, and only one has managed to take care of the situation, and that we DO need to treat it with caution, because those that didnt (1st world nurses being the obvious example) contracted this "not very contagious, shitty virus" when they shoulnd't have.

Had we taken it more seriously, rather than downplaying it and trying to make it seem like they had nothing to worry about, they probably would never had contracted it.

The fact is, what were seeing on the ground right now flies in the face of the textbook that you're quoting, because of the human factor - people fucking up and refusing to listen. And thats how worst case scenarios always happen, peoples ignorance/arrogance/apathy.

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Re: Ebola is running rampant in Nigeria
« Reply #54 on: October 21, 2014, 08:37:19 AM »
Aids is a syndrome, a comglomerate of symptoms. HIV is a virus that causes this, there is some literature showing non hiv aids, however I am unsure if that was rebutted.

Its how magic has hiv but is not sick.

Thanks for clearing that up for me.

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Re: Ebola is running rampant in Nigeria
« Reply #55 on: October 21, 2014, 08:44:42 AM »
Ah yes, the "were so much more advanced it couldn't happen to us" mindset.

We all know the words of the textbook man... the fact remains that its still spreading out of control in African countries, and only one has managed to take care of the situation, and that we DO need to treat it with caution, because those that didnt (1st world nurses being the obvious example) contracted this "not very contagious, shitty virus" when they shoulnd't have.

Had we taken it more seriously, rather than downplaying it and trying to make it seem like they had nothing to worry about, they probably would never had contracted it.

The fact is, what were seeing on the ground right now flies in the face of the textbook that you're quoting, because of the human factor - people fucking up and refusing to listen. And thats how worst case scenarios always happen, peoples ignorance/arrogance/apathy.

Ya but the countries and places like monrovia are shit holes, people are shitting in the streets, it's the perfect recipe for it. I dont think its been downplayed, I think the response has matched the scenario, how much aide do we send when people are pissing on each other and walking in sick peoples shit, drinking pissy water with virus etc. Malaria kills more people then ebola, why the outrage over ebola? this is the right trying to make Obama look bad and using this illness as the vehicle.

It's not airborne
It's a zoonotic infection
It has a small infective period
it kills super quick
It incapacitates reducing spread

Anywhere that followed proper protocol has been fine, even in Africa where I am sure travel is pretty open. It's the area that is fueling this, if they woudl stop eating bushmeat this might slow down.

It's a zoonotic infection in which the vectors are nearly none existent in North America.

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Re: Ebola is running rampant in Nigeria
« Reply #56 on: October 21, 2014, 08:44:51 AM »
My personal opinion is that the virus is not much of a threat to us.  What I abhor, and I have made this clear multiple times, is the use of intimidation tactics by the Obama administration and their allies in the media toward anyone who questions the way Ebola is being handled.  Framing the issue in terms of racism is manipulative and simply untrue.    The fact that no one is capable of seeing the parallels with Bush's "you are either for us or against" routine during the Iraq war is being willfully blind.  The issue here is immigration.  Any talk of banning flights or limiting entry to the United States will spur talk about immigration reform and securing the border and that is something the left does not want to discuss.
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Re: Ebola is running rampant in Nigeria
« Reply #57 on: October 21, 2014, 08:48:14 AM »
Spot on.

I dont understand why so many peoplr are just dismissomg the serious nature of what could happen....

I dont want hysteria, far from it... just a healthy but if caution.

What worries me isnt the virus... its this apathetic 'ah, itll never happen, ebola sucks as a virus' mentality.... where theyre saying one thing but itd spreading like wildfire.

That will cause hysteria, if and when people realize that what theyre being told by the science textbooks doesnt match up with the reality on the ground.

And thats whats scares me, the hysteria of stupid people flocking together violently, looting, etc.

I feel like if they took it seriously and approached it with a healthy amount of caution, itd be a lot easier to keep the people calm than it is telling them they have nothing to worry about and then trying to explain why people in hazmat and NBC/MOPP/whatever the fuck protective suits keep getting it.

okay let's pause a moment and use a little bit of our cerebral tissue here.

the spanish flu pandemic was an airborne disease in a day when spreading the news meant handing a letter to someone and crossing your fingers it might get there in a week. by the time anyone even realized there WAS a pandemic the continent was already decimated. ebola is a direct-contact disease in a time when the entire world knew about the outbreak before it had a significant body count.

in 1919 "modern medicine" was still trying to wrap its head around the germ theory of disease. it was only about 40 years prior that doctors were fucking starting to wash their hands before surgery. in 2014 we have the human genome decoded and a doctor in Melbourne can conference call with a virologist in North Carolina to confer about something a scientist in Madrid told them both about that morning.

when the spanish pandemic happened no one knew who had it until people started dropping dead. when we found out about a single person in dallas they landed in a quarantine and almost ALL of them got cleared (the ones who didn't are still waiting for the 21 day incubation period to end). there was a hint of possible ebola in state college PA (near me) and 80 students got quarantined and tested.

i caught Glenn Beck on CNN yesterday morning talking about "if ebola got airborne..." and you know what it reminded me of? the frenzy about people saying "if bird flu could transfer from human to human". viruses don't work like that. a virus isn't a checklist where you can just flip a switch on "airborne" and the virus will just remain exactly the same except for the one trait. ebola is also not showing any mutation, and in fact people who survive ebola are the best to use to treat people who later get it.

the only, and i mean the ONLY, reason it spread as far as it did was because nigeria and sierra leone are so woefully behind in containment that they had the first wave of infected people running away from hospitals and hiding.

you're talking about you want "caution", which is what every single governing body is screaming about. the UN, WHO, CDC, TSA, and everyone with even a hint of influence is making sure this does not spread further. the people with the blase attitude are people like me, and we're blase for two very salient reasons:

1. ebola is a deadly disease, but one of the absolute worst for transmission.

2. the medical community is so on point for this it's only a matter of time.

plus, let's look at another number: 80%. that's the survival rate for US patients with ebola. out of five, one died. is it a tiny sample size? of course, but it shows the power of modernized medical practices and you'd have to be really determined to believe in the ebolapocalypse to ignore that surprising result. initially ebola was thought to have a 90% mortality rate, now death is an anomaly for people who contract it in the more modernized world and get medical attention in a timely manner. let's not forget that the first dude who got it went way too damn long before getting seen by a hospital.

the ebola outbreak started last december and less than 10,000 people have died. since then, well over a million people in sub-saharan africa have died of malaria and tuberculosis. that's two orders of magnitude more worrisome. one american has died.

this is the american problem. two americans get beheaded by ISIS and suddenly ISIS is the greatest threat to american lives, meanwhile the mexican cartel has beheaded about 250 americans and no one cares. five americans get ebola and the virus gets contained and people shriek that the world is going to die, meanwhile several thousand people are going to die from the goddamn flu this winter and everyone just shrugs. the media latches onto one juicy story and gullible people lose their goddamn minds about it.

it's not like climate change because the difference here is that the common people just need to settle down BECAUSE it's being taken care of. the appropriate actions are being done, the disease is being controlled and contained, and we will survive. climate change has right-wing fucktards claiming it doesn't exist AT ALL and that we don't need to do ANYTHING, and it's hamstringing legislation to get the situation well in hand. with ebola, there is a microscope on every little thing out there and everyone is working hard to make sure it doesn't (and hasn't) spread.

is ebola serious? you're fucking right it is. should you personally be concerned? no, you should not.

tleilaxutank

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Re: Ebola is running rampant in Nigeria
« Reply #58 on: October 21, 2014, 08:53:40 AM »
Get educated, bro.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plague_Inc.

okay let's pause a moment and use a little bit of our cerebral tissue here.

the spanish flu pandemic was an airborne disease in a day when spreading the news meant handing a letter to someone and crossing your fingers it might get there in a week. by the time anyone even realized there WAS a pandemic the continent was already decimated. ebola is a direct-contact disease in a time when the entire world knew about the outbreak before it had a significant body count.

in 1919 "modern medicine" was still trying to wrap its head around the germ theory of disease. it was only about 40 years prior that doctors were fucking starting to wash their hands before surgery. in 2014 we have the human genome decoded and a doctor in Melbourne can conference call with a virologist in North Carolina to confer about something a scientist in Madrid told them both about that morning.

when the spanish pandemic happened no one knew who had it until people started dropping dead. when we found out about a single person in dallas they landed in a quarantine and almost ALL of them got cleared (the ones who didn't are still waiting for the 21 day incubation period to end). there was a hint of possible ebola in state college PA (near me) and 80 students got quarantined and tested.

i caught Glenn Beck on CNN yesterday morning talking about "if ebola got airborne..." and you know what it reminded me of? the frenzy about people saying "if bird flu could transfer from human to human". viruses don't work like that. a virus isn't a checklist where you can just flip a switch on "airborne" and the virus will just remain exactly the same except for the one trait. ebola is also not showing any mutation, and in fact people who survive ebola are the best to use to treat people who later get it.

the only, and i mean the ONLY, reason it spread as far as it did was because nigeria and sierra leone are so woefully behind in containment that they had the first wave of infected people running away from hospitals and hiding.

you're talking about you want "caution", which is what every single governing body is screaming about. the UN, WHO, CDC, TSA, and everyone with even a hint of influence is making sure this does not spread further. the people with the blase attitude are people like me, and we're blase for two very salient reasons:

1. ebola is a deadly disease, but one of the absolute worst for transmission.

2. the medical community is so on point for this it's only a matter of time.

plus, let's look at another number: 80%. that's the survival rate for US patients with ebola. out of five, one died. is it a tiny sample size? of course, but it shows the power of modernized medical practices and you'd have to be really determined to believe in the ebolapocalypse to ignore that surprising result. initially ebola was thought to have a 90% mortality rate, now death is an anomaly for people who contract it in the more modernized world and get medical attention in a timely manner. let's not forget that the first dude who got it went way too damn long before getting seen by a hospital.

the ebola outbreak started last december and less than 10,000 people have died. since then, well over a million people in sub-saharan africa have died of malaria and tuberculosis. that's two orders of magnitude more worrisome. one american has died.

this is the american problem. two americans get beheaded by ISIS and suddenly ISIS is the greatest threat to american lives, meanwhile the mexican cartel has beheaded about 250 americans and no one cares. five americans get ebola and the virus gets contained and people shriek that the world is going to die, meanwhile several thousand people are going to die from the goddamn flu this winter and everyone just shrugs. the media latches onto one juicy story and gullible people lose their goddamn minds about it.

it's not like climate change because the difference here is that the common people just need to settle down BECAUSE it's being taken care of. the appropriate actions are being done, the disease is being controlled and contained, and we will survive. climate change has right-wing fucktards claiming it doesn't exist AT ALL and that we don't need to do ANYTHING, and it's hamstringing legislation to get the situation well in hand. with ebola, there is a microscope on every little thing out there and everyone is working hard to make sure it doesn't (and hasn't) spread.

is ebola serious? you're fucking right it is. should you personally be concerned? no, you should not.

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Re: Ebola is running rampant in Nigeria
« Reply #59 on: October 21, 2014, 08:56:32 AM »
Ah yes, the "were so much more advanced it couldn't happen to us" mindset.

We all know the words of the textbook man... the fact remains that its still spreading out of control in African countries, and only one has managed to take care of the situation, and that we DO need to treat it with caution, because those that didnt (1st world nurses being the obvious example) contracted this "not very contagious, shitty virus" when they shoulnd't have.

Had we taken it more seriously, rather than downplaying it and trying to make it seem like they had nothing to worry about, they probably would never had contracted it.

The fact is, what were seeing on the ground right now flies in the face of the textbook that you're quoting, because of the human factor - people fucking up and refusing to listen. And thats how worst case scenarios always happen, peoples ignorance/arrogance/apathy.

it's spreading in an EXTREMELY LOCALIZED portion of africa. the outbreak began in december of 2013, okay? it started ten months ago and so far it's still not spread beyond a small handful of countries in western africa. let me put a finer point on it:



in december of 2013 the outbreak began in guinea. nine months later it still hadn't made it past liberia, even though MONTHS went by without any serious attention on it, and even despite that fact it hadn't crushed the population of any of those countries. the furthest it went without serious medical intervention was nigeria over there and now nigeria is reporting itself free of ebola cases currently.

you're using terms like "first world nurses" while ignoring that these cases are in the SINGLE DIGITS. we're not talking about hundreds of nurses getting it. we're talking about one woman in spain (who, by the way, got cleared) and a few people in texas, and in BOTH cases the situation was immediately assessed and responded to. those people who contracted the disease ABSOLUTELY knew how serious it was, and they still made a small error. said error was recognized, dealt with, and contained.

the only reason to be freaking out about ebola as an american citizen is if you are just really in love with the idea of weathering a pandemic because you're yearning for that feeling of badassery that comes with surviving an apocalypse that the weaker people could not.

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Re: Ebola is running rampant in Nigeria
« Reply #60 on: October 21, 2014, 08:58:06 AM »
it's spreading in an EXTREMELY LOCALIZED portion of africa. the outbreak began in december of 2013, okay? it started ten months ago and so far it's still not spread beyond a small handful of countries in western africa. let me put a finer point on it:



in december of 2013 the outbreak began in guinea. nine months later it still hadn't made it past liberia, even though MONTHS went by without any serious attention on it, and even despite that fact it hadn't crushed the population of any of those countries. the furthest it went without serious medical intervention was nigeria over there and now nigeria is reporting itself free of ebola cases currently.

you're using terms like "first world nurses" while ignoring that these cases are in the SINGLE DIGITS. we're not talking about hundreds of nurses getting it. we're talking about one woman in spain (who, by the way, got cleared) and a few people in texas, and in BOTH cases the situation was immediately assessed and responded to. those people who contracted the disease ABSOLUTELY knew how serious it was, and they still made a small error. said error was recognized, dealt with, and contained.

the only reason to be freaking out about ebola as an american citizen is if you are just really in love with the idea of weathering a pandemic because you're yearning for that feeling of badassery that comes with surviving an apocalypse that the weaker people could not.

Low population areas served as a stop gap of sorts.  Ebola is only dangerous in densely populated areas.
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MisterMagoo

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Re: Ebola is running rampant in Nigeria
« Reply #61 on: October 21, 2014, 09:04:40 AM »
Low population areas served as a stop gap of sorts.  Ebola is only dangerous in densely populated areas.

yes and no. bamako, that city right beside guinea, has a population of 1.8 million and is the fastest growing city in the entire continent. nigeria's population density is five times higher than that of texas.

paradoxically, people are making excuses for why the disease hasn't spread further while simultaneously claiming that it's GOING to suddenly turn into a global pandemic. not gonna happen.

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Re: Ebola is running rampant in Nigeria
« Reply #62 on: October 21, 2014, 09:11:46 AM »
yes and no. bamako, that city right beside guinea, has a population of 1.8 million and is the fastest growing city in the entire continent. nigeria's population density is five times higher than that of texas.

paradoxically, people are making excuses for why the disease hasn't spread further while simultaneously claiming that it's GOING to suddenly turn into a global pandemic. not gonna happen.

I should have said, more dangerous in populated areas if not contained immediately.   The outbreaks in rural tribal areas of Africa burn themselves out much faster simple because there are less people and more distance to travel to transmit the virus.   Nigeria kind of got lucky.  I posted an interesting article on this thread about Nigeria and Ebola.
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Re: Ebola is running rampant in Nigeria
« Reply #63 on: October 21, 2014, 09:22:11 AM »
I should have said, more dangerous in populated areas if not contained immediately.   The outbreaks in rural tribal areas of Africa burn themselves out much faster simple because there are less people and more distance to travel to transmit the virus.   Nigeria kind of got lucky.  I posted an interesting article on this thread about Nigeria and Ebola.

it didn't get "lucky", if anything sierra leone and liberia got UNlucky. ebola is difficult to transmit with any serious speed and distance thanks to how quickly it incapacitates the infected and that it requires direct transmission of infected fluids while the patient is showing symptoms. it's one of those diseases where someone can't really typhoid mary it because the only time they're capable of transmitting it they're also not going to be in any shape to go around giving it to people. there won't be a patient zero that's walking around looking healthy but giving ebola to people without them knowing it. the people who keep getting it are people who are right up against someone who is in the process of vomiting up all their organs.

if people in those two countries hadn't kept harboring infected relatives and hiding them from hospitals the disease would have fizzled out like every other outbreak. even BASIC medical practice would have contained it. the consequences for fucking up are severe, but the odds of getting it are extremely small.

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Re: Ebola is running rampant in Nigeria
« Reply #64 on: October 21, 2014, 09:39:39 AM »
okay let's pause a moment and use a little bit of our cerebral tissue here.

the spanish flu pandemic was an airborne disease in a day when spreading the news meant handing a letter to someone and crossing your fingers it might get there in a week. by the time anyone even realized there WAS a pandemic the continent was already decimated. ebola is a direct-contact disease in a time when the entire world knew about the outbreak before it had a significant body count.

in 1919 "modern medicine" was still trying to wrap its head around the germ theory of disease. it was only about 40 years prior that doctors were fucking starting to wash their hands before surgery. in 2014 we have the human genome decoded and a doctor in Melbourne can conference call with a virologist in North Carolina to confer about something a scientist in Madrid told them both about that morning.

when the spanish pandemic happened no one knew who had it until people started dropping dead. when we found out about a single person in dallas they landed in a quarantine and almost ALL of them got cleared (the ones who didn't are still waiting for the 21 day incubation period to end). there was a hint of possible ebola in state college PA (near me) and 80 students got quarantined and tested.

i caught Glenn Beck on CNN yesterday morning talking about "if ebola got airborne..." and you know what it reminded me of? the frenzy about people saying "if bird flu could transfer from human to human". viruses don't work like that. a virus isn't a checklist where you can just flip a switch on "airborne" and the virus will just remain exactly the same except for the one trait. ebola is also not showing any mutation, and in fact people who survive ebola are the best to use to treat people who later get it.

the only, and i mean the ONLY, reason it spread as far as it did was because nigeria and sierra leone are so woefully behind in containment that they had the first wave of infected people running away from hospitals and hiding.

you're talking about you want "caution", which is what every single governing body is screaming about. the UN, WHO, CDC, TSA, and everyone with even a hint of influence is making sure this does not spread further. the people with the blase attitude are people like me, and we're blase for two very salient reasons:

1. ebola is a deadly disease, but one of the absolute worst for transmission.

2. the medical community is so on point for this it's only a matter of time.

plus, let's look at another number: 80%. that's the survival rate for US patients with ebola. out of five, one died. is it a tiny sample size? of course, but it shows the power of modernized medical practices and you'd have to be really determined to believe in the ebolapocalypse to ignore that surprising result. initially ebola was thought to have a 90% mortality rate, now death is an anomaly for people who contract it in the more modernized world and get medical attention in a timely manner. let's not forget that the first dude who got it went way too damn long before getting seen by a hospital.

the ebola outbreak started last december and less than 10,000 people have died. since then, well over a million people in sub-saharan africa have died of malaria and tuberculosis. that's two orders of magnitude more worrisome. one american has died.

this is the american problem. two americans get beheaded by ISIS and suddenly ISIS is the greatest threat to american lives, meanwhile the mexican cartel has beheaded about 250 americans and no one cares. five americans get ebola and the virus gets contained and people shriek that the world is going to die, meanwhile several thousand people are going to die from the goddamn flu this winter and everyone just shrugs. the media latches onto one juicy story and gullible people lose their goddamn minds about it.

it's not like climate change because the difference here is that the common people just need to settle down BECAUSE it's being taken care of. the appropriate actions are being done, the disease is being controlled and contained, and we will survive. climate change has right-wing fucktards claiming it doesn't exist AT ALL and that we don't need to do ANYTHING, and it's hamstringing legislation to get the situation well in hand. with ebola, there is a microscope on every little thing out there and everyone is working hard to make sure it doesn't (and hasn't) spread.

is ebola serious? you're fucking right it is. should you personally be concerned? no, you should not.
As ive said multiple times in posts, im not afraid of the virus itself, im afraid of stupid people.

Take a couple dozen more duncans, who see the survival rate in Murrica, and decided to lie and hop a plane, or pay the cartels to run them up through Mexico.

Now say they manage to infect a dozen people.

So say theres 15-30 people infected, easily manageable right? Now introduce media panic, and people panic.... people stop flying, they stay indoors, dumbasses start looting, whatever.

Thats what im concerned about.

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Re: Ebola is running rampant in Nigeria
« Reply #65 on: October 21, 2014, 11:37:17 AM »
As ive said multiple times in posts, im not afraid of the virus itself, im afraid of stupid people.

Take a couple dozen more duncans, who see the survival rate in Murrica, and decided to lie and hop a plane, or pay the cartels to run them up through Mexico.

Now say they manage to infect a dozen people.

So say theres 15-30 people infected, easily manageable right? Now introduce media panic, and people panic.... people stop flying, they stay indoors, dumbasses start looting, whatever.

Thats what im concerned about.

except that's all massive extrapolation on a huge pile of "what ifs". what you're missing is how fucking hard it is for any of what you said to happen.

let's take your hypothetical patient zero. the thing with the guy in dallas was that he didn't know he had ebola because the disease was in its early stage and he was asymptomatic. your PZ would be someone who knows he's infected, which would be someone showing symptoms. for that to be the case, that person is not going to make it across the ocean and then into an american hospital without anyone noticing. someone can't just appear one day in a US waiting room and be like "hey I snuck in with ebola" and get easy treatment.

in fact, we can throw out your "lies" hypothetical because that's not even possible now. you fly from liberia to the US and your ass is getting taken to one of five facilities for you to be screened. every single person flying from western africa into the US has to be stopped for screening, and no one showing symptoms is going to be allowed on a plane or even in an airport to begin with. that means the ONLY way for someone to "sneak" in would be in your "underground" scenario.

the fact that the only places equipped to deal with ebola are very specific might be irrelevant because our hypothetical PZ doesn't know that, they think every American hospital is fine. fair enough. that doesn't change the fact that someone coughing up blood isn't going to be able to black market themselves from liberia to the US in anything resembling a timely fashion. the only way it can work now is if they're immediately identified and given a direct and INSTANT transport to quarantine and containment. unless you're suggesting smugglers have someone on hand 24/7 to airlift people to US hospitals they're not even going to finish the journey.

so okay, let's back up a bit. someone has ebola but maybe they're early enough in it that they can in theory make it in time. so they... pay the cartels? to hide an ebola patient??

WHAT?

hold on, you're suggesting that a random dude in the wasteland of liberia is going to be able to pay a Mexican cartel to transport them, a person i should remind you is infected with motherfucking ebola, up THROUGH mexico into texas. how much do you think it would cost to pay someone to be willing to SMUGGLE an EBOLA patient across the atlantic ocean? who is going to be willing to do that? what are they going to do, outfit an entire transport plane with hazmat suits? put the person in a hermetically sealed container box? where is this person getting that much money? do you actually believe there is any underground entity that is cool with trying to Cannonball Run an ebola patient from AFRICA to the US? and for that matter where did they manage to FIND these people quickly enough to get the job done? ebola isn't exactly a "slow" disease.

all right, fine. FINE. so all of that SOMEHOW worked. now there's your "manages to infect" people thing. well we already explained that there's no way for this person to just be stumbling around for a while, and that the only way to infect is via direct fluid contact, so that means that our millionaire liberian who had connections to black market human smugglers with some seriously fast transport times managed to get himself into the US and then... what? where are they leaving him? are the smugglers taking him to the hospital?

human trafficking only works because the people are either getting left somewhere where the buyer has control or they're getting left somewhere that's conducive to "sneaking" an ebola patient needs medical attention and they need it FAST. you can't just push an ebola patient out of a van and let him fend for himself. by the time they get to the US this guy is going to be slipping in and out of consciousness and bleeding. where exactly are they putting him?

none of this makes sense. what you're suggesting is that someone in liberia manages to identify that they need US medical care early enough that they are able to travel, they have the means to pay off cartels who are themselves apparently willing to put THEMSELVES in close proximity with the most deadly pathogen known to man and are able to be en route the instant the guy realizes he needs help, and that during this journey he is somehow placed in contact with a dozen or so people to the point of infecting them.

do you understand how batshit bonkers that all is??

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Re: Ebola is running rampant in Nigeria
« Reply #66 on: October 21, 2014, 11:53:45 AM »
except that's all massive extrapolation on a huge pile of "what ifs". what you're missing is how fucking hard it is for any of what you said to happen.

let's take your hypothetical patient zero. the thing with the guy in dallas was that he didn't know he had ebola because the disease was in its early stage and he was asymptomatic. your PZ would be someone who knows he's infected, which would be someone showing symptoms. for that to be the case, that person is not going to make it across the ocean and then into an american hospital without anyone noticing. someone can't just appear one day in a US waiting room and be like "hey I snuck in with ebola" and get easy treatment.

in fact, we can throw out your "lies" hypothetical because that's not even possible now. you fly from liberia to the US and your ass is getting taken to one of five facilities for you to be screened. every single person flying from western africa into the US has to be stopped for screening, and no one showing symptoms is going to be allowed on a plane or even in an airport to begin with. that means the ONLY way for someone to "sneak" in would be in your "underground" scenario.

the fact that the only places equipped to deal with ebola are very specific might be irrelevant because our hypothetical PZ doesn't know that, they think every American hospital is fine. fair enough. that doesn't change the fact that someone coughing up blood isn't going to be able to black market themselves from liberia to the US in anything resembling a timely fashion. the only way it can work now is if they're immediately identified and given a direct and INSTANT transport to quarantine and containment. unless you're suggesting smugglers have someone on hand 24/7 to airlift people to US hospitals they're not even going to finish the journey.

so okay, let's back up a bit. someone has ebola but maybe they're early enough in it that they can in theory make it in time. so they... pay the cartels? to hide an ebola patient??

WHAT?

hold on, you're suggesting that a random dude in the wasteland of liberia is going to be able to pay a Mexican cartel to transport them, a person i should remind you is infected with motherfucking ebola, up THROUGH mexico into texas. how much do you think it would cost to pay someone to be willing to SMUGGLE an EBOLA patient across the atlantic ocean? who is going to be willing to do that? what are they going to do, outfit an entire transport plane with hazmat suits? put the person in a hermetically sealed container box? where is this person getting that much money? do you actually believe there is any underground entity that is cool with trying to Cannonball Run an ebola patient from AFRICA to the US? and for that matter where did they manage to FIND these people quickly enough to get the job done? ebola isn't exactly a "slow" disease.

all right, fine. FINE. so all of that SOMEHOW worked. now there's your "manages to infect" people thing. well we already explained that there's no way for this person to just be stumbling around for a while, and that the only way to infect is via direct fluid contact, so that means that our millionaire liberian who had connections to black market human smugglers with some seriously fast transport times managed to get himself into the US and then... what? where are they leaving him? are the smugglers taking him to the hospital?

human trafficking only works because the people are either getting left somewhere where the buyer has control or they're getting left somewhere that's conducive to "sneaking" an ebola patient needs medical attention and they need it FAST. you can't just push an ebola patient out of a van and let him fend for himself. by the time they get to the US this guy is going to be slipping in and out of consciousness and bleeding. where exactly are they putting him?

none of this makes sense. what you're suggesting is that someone in liberia manages to identify that they need US medical care early enough that they are able to travel, they have the means to pay off cartels who are themselves apparently willing to put THEMSELVES in close proximity with the most deadly pathogen known to man and are able to be en route the instant the guy realizes he needs help, and that during this journey he is somehow placed in contact with a dozen or so people to the point of infecting them.

do you understand how batshit bonkers that all is??
i do understand how unlikely that all is. And it already happened one with duncan and he infected two people. Even with how high the odds against it were, it happened.

Look man, i know everything youre saying and i hope youre correct... maybe its my nature, or the time in the military, i dont know... but i try and look and plan for all scenarios, specifically worst case.

And when they tell us exactly what youre telling me, over and over, and then the opposite happens and all the major agencies suddenly flip the script, it makes looking and planning for all possible contingencies regrdless of probability...

You continue spitting the words of the textbook, and ill continue monitoring whats acually happening and comparing it to the words of the text, and once it starts lining up, ill agree we have it under control.

The last couple weeks when theyve started to tighten down and get things under control have made me have slightly more faith in those in charge.... but having worked for them and seen the idiocy and political nature 1st hand, i remain skeptical.

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Re: Ebola is running rampant in Nigeria
« Reply #67 on: October 21, 2014, 12:07:29 PM »
i do understand how unlikely that all is. And it already happened one with duncan and he infected two people. Even with how high the odds against it were, it happened.

Look man, i know everything youre saying and i hope youre correct... maybe its my nature, or the time in the military, i dont know... but i try and look and plan for all scenarios, specifically worst case.

And when they tell us exactly what youre telling me, over and over, and then the opposite happens and all the major agencies suddenly flip the script, it makes looking and planning for all possible contingencies regrdless of probability...

You continue spitting the words of the textbook, and ill continue monitoring whats acually happening and comparing it to the words of the text, and once it starts lining up, ill agree we have it under control.

The last couple weeks when theyve started to tighten down and get things under control have made me have slightly more faith in those in charge.... but having worked for them and seen the idiocy and political nature 1st hand, i remain skeptical.

what you gotta remember is that at the time, duncan passed through when he was just going off his word. we can't have any more duncans because literally every single flight that goes from western africa to the US is taken to one of five facilities to be screened. it is, right now, 100% impossible for an ebola infected patient to get from western africa to the US through a commercial airline. it cannot happen. there are massive restrictions and limitations now.

yes yes, we all know the old "hope for the best, plan for the worst", but right now you're talking about the kind of 'worst case scenario' planning that is on par with panicking about a gamma ray burst or that an ISIS agent is going to sneak into the US with a nuclear warhead in his asshole.

who were the two people duncan infected? two nurses. as in, two medical people who were in direct contact with the infected man. no one has been infected via casual contact.

now keep in mind, duncan was DISCHARGED on september 26th, which was 25 days ago. ebola has a 21 day incubation period. if anyone the dude had been in contact with had gotten infected, we would know of it by now. like i said, you can't typhoid mary ebola. Someone can't just dance around the us infecting people with it unexpectedly. to get infected someone has to be EXHIBITING symptoms AND you have to directly contact their bodily fluids. that means if someone on an airplane with you has ebola, unless they cough into your cocktail you won't get it from them.

the reason this pisses me off is it's just another Disease of the Week. we had H1N1, bird flu, SARS, and now this. it's the same as killer bees and al qaeda sleeper cells. story after story after story to get americans panicked and focus on the scary apocalypse rather than any of the dozens of things that really do affect your life.

it is a 100% guarantee that from the moment that ebola first hit US airwaves to now, several thousand americans have died from causes that no one cares about. and while you're in a tizzy about a disease that is only an outbreak in one tiny pocket of the world with an infinitesimally small sprinkling of cases that leaked outside, your life is surrounded by hundreds of maladies that actually do warrant your attention that you are doing nothing about. think about that for a moment.

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Re: Ebola is running rampant in Nigeria
« Reply #68 on: October 21, 2014, 12:22:58 PM »
what you gotta remember is that at the time, duncan passed through when he was just going off his word. we can't have any more duncans because literally every single flight that goes from western africa to the US is taken to one of five facilities to be screened. it is, right now, 100% impossible for an ebola infected patient to get from western africa to the US through a commercial airline. it cannot happen. there are massive restrictions and limitations now.

yes yes, we all know the old "hope for the best, plan for the worst", but right now you're talking about the kind of 'worst case scenario' planning that is on par with panicking about a gamma ray burst or that an ISIS agent is going to sneak into the US with a nuclear warhead in his asshole.

who were the two people duncan infected? two nurses. as in, two medical people who were in direct contact with the infected man. no one has been infected via casual contact.

now keep in mind, duncan was DISCHARGED on september 26th, which was 25 days ago. ebola has a 21 day incubation period. if anyone the dude had been in contact with had gotten infected, we would know of it by now. like i said, you can't typhoid mary ebola. Someone can't just dance around the us infecting people with it unexpectedly. to get infected someone has to be EXHIBITING symptoms AND you have to directly contact their bodily fluids. that means if someone on an airplane with you has ebola, unless they cough into your cocktail you won't get it from them.

the reason this pisses me off is it's just another Disease of the Week. we had H1N1, bird flu, SARS, and now this. it's the same as killer bees and al qaeda sleeper cells. story after story after story to get americans panicked and focus on the scary apocalypse rather than any of the dozens of things that really do affect your life.

it is a 100% guarantee that from the moment that ebola first hit US airwaves to now, several thousand americans have died from causes that no one cares about. and while you're in a tizzy about a disease that is only an outbreak in one tiny pocket of the world with an infinitesimally small sprinkling of cases that leaked outside, your life is surrounded by hundreds of maladies that actually do warrant your attention that you are doing nothing about. think about that for a moment.
you keep reitterating things i already know man. I know all this. I know what the textbook says, i know all the facts, and i know the situation with Duncan.

What im trying to tell you is that i worry about the human factor, people being unpredictable, politcal, making stupid decisions.. if you go back to the 1st thread, i stated right then and there that they simoly need to follow quarantine protocol and 'poof', its handled.

But they didnt. And it spread. And it spread some more, when it shouldnt have. And then it spread more, while everyone was stating 'this wont happen, it cant happen, itll never happen'. And then it kept happening, and the excuses started. Legit excuses, yes.

The whole point, its that until recently, its been fumble fucked all over hell and back with what should have been no big deal. Isolate, quarantine, let it burn itself out. But now its in multipl countris and even reached the 1st world because of idiots and people not taking it seriously.

Now, suddenly, weve taken it seriously, but weve swung the other way and now people are in panic mode, which pisses me off and is worrisome in its own way

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Re: Ebola is running rampant in Nigeria
« Reply #69 on: February 01, 2015, 08:25:49 PM »
Are you fucking stupid, with your imbred stupid fucking logic, its better to make money returning old liquor bottles than to have a job. Because in theory you have to wait three weeks to get a paycheck.

Ebola will kill millions in the next twelve months,

DO YOURSELF A FUCKING FAVOR AND LEARN SOME BASIC FUCKING MATH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


Jan- Febuary- March- April June JULY AUGUST SEPTEMBER OCTOBER NOVEMBER DECEMBer
1        2           4        8     16   32     64         128            256         512          1024


Jan- Febuary- March- April June JULY AUGUST SEPTEMBER OCTOBER NOVEMBER DECEMBer
1000    2000    4000   8000 16000 3200  6400   128000      256000     512000     1024000

This is what happens when somethine doubles every month.

Remember on my chart were in month april. year 2



In 12 months ebola won't be an issue anymore, and I'm going to quote this post and make a thread about it. Just to make you feel stupid.


Alright be sure to quote the one I made three months ago, and how the figures match exactly what I predicted, almosts to the point it looks like the WHO is doctoring their numbers.

Cause quite fucking honestly I want to be wrong on this.

Note the date, note how 50 k is almost exactly what we expect by  christmas.

 FAIL

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Re: Ebola is running rampant in Nigeria
« Reply #70 on: February 02, 2015, 11:19:28 AM »
Are you fucking stupid, with your imbred stupid fucking logic, its better to make money returning old liquor bottles than to have a job. Because in theory you have to wait three weeks to get a paycheck.

Ebola will kill millions in the next twelve months,

DO YOURSELF A FUCKING FAVOR AND LEARN SOME BASIC FUCKING MATH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


Jan- Febuary- March- April June JULY AUGUST SEPTEMBER OCTOBER NOVEMBER DECEMBer
1        2           4        8     16   32     64         128            256         512          1024


Jan- Febuary- March- April June JULY AUGUST SEPTEMBER OCTOBER NOVEMBER DECEMBer
1000    2000    4000   8000 16000 3200  6400   128000      256000     512000     1024000

This is what happens when somethine doubles every month.

Remember on my chart were in month april. year 2



MAXX

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Re: Ebola is running rampant in Nigeria
« Reply #71 on: February 02, 2015, 11:34:37 AM »
There's all kinds of shitty diseases in Africa. Really why care?

many white people seems to care though like this guy


Bill Gates is a famous example...

I really don't understand why though. Guess it makes them feel like they have a purpose or that they have some sort of Jesus complex.  :-\

2Thick

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Re: Ebola is running rampant in Nigeria
« Reply #72 on: February 02, 2015, 02:20:33 PM »
All we can do is do our best to profit from these things. Buy put and call options on the makers of experimental treatments and vaccines for these diseases - and sit back and wait for either good news or bad news on the drugs and hopefully profit accordingly.
A

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Re: Ebola is running rampant in Nigeria
« Reply #73 on: February 02, 2015, 02:53:30 PM »
Jesus christ you realize most of us, with descent education systems, were educated on this shit when we were like 10?



Hahaha yeah didn't you watch the movie in gym class?

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Re: Ebola is running rampant in Nigeria
« Reply #74 on: February 03, 2015, 05:25:50 AM »
i do understand how unlikely that all is. And it already happened one with duncan and he infected two people. Even with how high the odds against it were, it happened.

Look man, i know everything youre saying and i hope youre correct... maybe its my nature, or the time in the military, i dont know... but i try and look and plan for all scenarios, specifically worst case.

And when they tell us exactly what youre telling me, over and over, and then the opposite happens and all the major agencies suddenly flip the script, it makes looking and planning for all possible contingencies regrdless of probability...

You continue spitting the words of the textbook, and ill continue monitoring whats acually happening and comparing it to the words of the text, and once it starts lining up, ill agree we have it under control.

The last couple weeks when theyve started to tighten down and get things under control have made me have slightly more faith in those in charge.... but having worked for them and seen the idiocy and political nature 1st hand, i remain skeptical.

is this guy a troll or actually a moron? i dont get it