Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!

[Thin Lizzy]

It does typically, or rather it did. During risk on/risk off cycles it often moved before stock markets did. Sometimes by a couple of days or even by a week or 2.

The fact that it appears to have decorrelated in such a big way is part of the reason some think it's over for crypto.

**Maybe there is a chance Crypto front ran the stock market by several weeks this time. Crypto currently sits at fair value and the stock market is double digits percentage over value just like crypto was several weeks ago.

It has been more volatile but is almost exactly in line with the S&P for the last year.

[Flexacon]

It has been more volatile but is almost exactly in line with the S&P for the last year.

I don't think the detail in that charting is accurate enough to show the decorrelation.

Other than BTC dumping in November for a few days with FTX blowing up they both lined up until roughly the second week in May. Since then they have decorrelated in a sustained way with the start of June showing significant decorrelation.

Nasdaq which most believe is a better comparison (tech) shows an even more defined decorrelation.

SPX in BLUE
BTC in PINK

[Mayday]

Forget S&P.

The correlation for outcome is gold.

I don’t think anyone has actually looked at gold because they think the timeline is wrong. But It’s not about the timeline.

[gib]

There are a lot of good comments above, but also mixed in with nonsense and a fundamental misunderstanding of the dynamics of Bitcoin.

Are biggest financial players in the world slowing and stealthily making a move on Bitcoin? YES.

Blackrock, China, Soros, Goldman, etc and many super private but powerful HNW's. Yes, of course they are.

Will established players in finance seek to take over the space from startups? Yes, of course.

How can we defend against this (or benefit from it?) That of course if obvious ... BUY BITCOIN AND HODL.

Is the fact that Blackrock and others are moving into this space a bad thing? Does it reduce the power of the de-centralization of Bitcoin? This is where the nonsense comes in. The fact that Blackrock and other established institutions are entering makes no difference to Bitcoin. Bitcoin keeps doing what it does. It does not care who owns it or how much of it you own. Unlike Eth (or other shit coins) Bitcoin cannot be controlled dependent on the stake of it that you have. And game theory, basic economics, and mathematics dictate that no single player can keep infinitely acquiring it, as to do that requires sellers, and because supply is limited, more demand will equate to ever increasing prices.

[Flexacon]

There are a lot of good comments above, but also mixed in with nonsense and a fundamental misunderstanding of the dynamics of Bitcoin.

Are biggest financial players in the world slowing and stealthily making a move on Bitcoin? YES.

Blackrock, China, Soros, Goldman, etc and many super private but powerful HNW's. Yes, of course they are.

Will established players in finance seek to take over the space from startups? Yes, of course.

How can we defend against this (or benefit from it?) That of course if obvious ... BUY BITCOIN AND HODL.

Is the fact that Blackrock and others are moving into this space a bad thing? Does it reduce the power of the de-centralization of Bitcoin? This is where the nonsense comes in. The fact that Blackrock and other established institutions are entering makes no difference to Bitcoin. Bitcoin keeps doing what it does. It does not care who owns it or how much of it you own. Unlike Eth (or other shit coins) Bitcoin cannot be controlled dependent on the stake of it that you have. And game theory, basic economics, and mathematics dictate that no single player can keep infinitely acquiring it, as to do that requires sellers, and because supply is limited, more demand will equate to ever increasing prices.

Your post fails to take into account those institutions going after miners and validators which has already started and will only ramp up.

Institutions don't need to buy up every coin, they just need to achieve a consensus. Owning the majority of coins makes achieving consensus easier, but they might be able to still achieve it with far less. Maybe 20% will be enough, no one really knows until it happens.

By consensus what I really mean is narrative that people are willing to believe. Narrative was used to claim BTC as digital p2p money, digital gold, digital store of value. Narrative/consensus can just as easily lead to BTC ending up as Blackrock coin or even CBDC. You see game theory can just as easily be used to achieve the opposite of what maxis tried to achieve. Turn decentralized into centralized. Reverse uno

There is more discussion that can be had regarding KYC, ESG, miners, security and potential hard forks in the future in case you dont see how these things might be co-opted by institutions and what that could lead to.

How can we defend against this (or benefit from it?) That of course if obvious ... BUY BITCOIN AND HODL.

Sure Buy and Hodl is the best line of defence (maybe the only of defence) Either way regardless of how this plays out Buy and Hodl (and sell) is pretty close to becoming a win-win play.

[Flexacon]

Forget S&P.

The correlation for outcome is gold.

I don’t think anyone has actually looked at gold because they think the timeline is wrong. But It’s not about the timeline.

Do you are mean current gold prices or historical factorials?

BTC has moved inverse DXY at times which is similar to gold, but that's kinda decorrelated too. If it's gold factorials from the 70s 80s to its ATH then I'd say the spot ETF approval will blow that trend apart.

[Theoak*]

I wouldn't be so sure about Blackrock not going down the FTX 2.0 route, just maybe not directly. As I said Blackrock is more than just a financial institution, it's considered the fourth branch of US government. Basically what Blackrock says, goes and then other financial institutions follow. (Fidility might be following with another ETF submission)

Also as mentioned Blackrock chose Coinbase as custodian. The same Coinbase going at it with the SEC. The same coinbase launching an overseas exchange for derivatives. Coinbase will either be brought to its knees and acquired by one of the big institutions or the SEC stuff is for show and they are already on board with Blackrock.

The bald Coinbase CEO co-founder will probably be gone soon as he has been dumping his shares, but the other co-founder who has been busy setting up another firm with an ex Sequoia capital guy has been buying up the stock (over $50m) Speaks volumes about the future direction.

The attempted takeover of bitcoin is possibly a lot closer than people realise as it appears to have been in the works for a while. Not even saying that to troll, I'm genuinely saying I've seen a lot of convincing evidence of that.

I have more to add with regards to ESG and mining and how everything is falling into place. There was a post onemorerep made months ago regarding ESG and Blackrock. @onemorerep if you're reading this any chance you can dig up that post? Search results gave me nothing.

The ETF has to be backed 1:1 by btc and pretty sure these ETFs are audited on a regular. Since btc ledger is the most transparent I'm sure it will be followed closely. If they do pull an FTX and they are indeed 4th branch  of thengovernment, then an Implosion would mean government would offer them a bailout. If no bailout, blackrock will effectively shoot themselves in the foot and eventually mass(gradual) self storage will be accelerated.

1.9million coins on exchanges, 3-5 million lost. The rest are majority holders, the number will grow exponentially over the coming decades. They can play their short positions, but at the end of every trade will be an eventual btc holder for the future. That's why I say this process will play out over a number of decades.

There's no where to hide when you have true scarcity and an immutable ledger.

In terms of mining, yes I've always said their is a risk. Beauty being when you attack them they can just pack up and move shop elsewhere. Last thing USA wants are other countries at the forefront of this industry.

In every financial system there's always going to be a wealth disparity, Btc is  no different. The difference is the top holders of btc, no matter how much they hold have no rights of the consensus protocol. No amount of  btc they have can change the code. Sure they can dump the market and they have over and over, only to buy up cheap coins off people who know no better. Have a look at the last week, top 100 wallets have accumulated 80k in btc.

Elon musk has a large following, richest* man in the world, multiple companies which he resides over and makes policies and structural changes foreign and domestic in his companies favour with power and money he has.  Elon purchased 1.7billion in btc making him one of the largest holders, he has no say in how btc operates. Btc doesn't give a fuck about his stack and keeps pumping blocks every 10min.

Decentralisation is not a spectrum. Centralisation means it has a centre, you can go in and shut it down. Two very good examples, opensea and metamask blocking Russia  users, completely banned.  These 1000s of shitcoins are masking themselves as decentralised but really they are unregistered securities. SEC will come for them.

As for mining  pools, I touched on that. They would bleed their money dry before it ever eventuated. Look at china, at one point they were burning 100TW hrs per year, half the network. China shut down the network due to environmental bs issues. Mind you they burn 25000TW hrs per year. China is a major authoritarian  country, they hate  btc. If they could of hacked it, they would've, if they could've turned it off they would've. They're not a fan of people having private property outside of their ability to control/disrupt.

Instead what you saw was 50-60% network turned off and relocated. Because the network was so robust it had no downtime, no lawsuits, no protests. It just kept hitting ever 10minutes.  Never before have you seen a network lose 50-60% of its infrastructure and have no downtime or hiccups. The hash rate fell to 60s and then grew to up over 240s. So it grew 4times larger and stronger from  when it turned off. It was a trillion $$ mistake by China

[Flexacon]

In terms of mining, yes I've always said their is a risk. Beauty being when you attack them they can just pack up and move shop elsewhere. Last thing USA wants are other countries at the forefront of this industry.

Why attack miners if you are an institution like Blackrock when you can promise them better rewards/less hassle if they are compliant with your wishes. They can use  both the carrot and stick method to do this with miners. ESG, Taxes, IPOs, stock price manipulation etc.

Surely I can't be the only one seeing what could happen if miners are co-opted and if the institutions get to decide the next bitcoin narrative?

[gib]

There's no where to hide when you have true scarcity and an immutable ledger.

Well said!

[Mayday]

Do you are mean current gold prices or historical factorials?

BTC has moved inverse DXY at times which is similar to gold, but that's kinda decorrelated too. If it's gold factorials from the 70s 80s to its ATH then I'd say the spot ETF approval will blow that trend apart.

The size of move. Not the timeframe or the how or the why.

Rates and DXY are important for direction.

The same as my posts about rates, USD and S&P to new highs until we hit peak rates. 99% say we will crash yet here we are at 4,400+ and it’s rising. A call I made a while ago with supporting historic data.

My expectation range is 5,367-5,544 by year end. It will tag 5,000. Just a question of how much higher.

99% are wrong about a US recession and have given zero thought to recession impact outside of the US.


ETF won’t moon Bitcoin although this will be the narrative.

[Flexacon]

The size of move. Not the timeframe or the how or the why.

Rates and DXY are important for direction.

The same as my posts about rates, USD and S&P to new highs until we hit peak rates. 99% say we will crash yet here we are at 4,400+ and it’s rising. A call I made a while ago with supporting historic data.

My expectation range is 5,367-5,544 by year end. It will tag 5,000. Just a question of how much higher.

99% are wrong about a US recession and have given zero thought to recession impact outside of the US.

Bulls got chopped, bears got chopped, I'm favouring another round chopping before a new all time high on the SPX.

ETF won’t moon Bitcin although this will be the narrative.

In a bull market (stocks) Hedgefunds will dump obscene amount of capital into BTC ETFs. They are mostly gamblers who won't be able to help themselves once they start seeing bullish price action.

The spot ETF stuff is starting to remind me of 2017/18 when it was a bunch of Bitcoin futures ETFs trying to get approved. The SEC refusing them nuked the market. If some entities were looking for exit liquidity and/or to nuke the market then they are doing a great job of setting up for that. Run the price up and then refuse the Blackrock spot ETF (the rest would also pretty much be an insta refuse) and that's a sub 20k Btc.

[Mayday]

Bulls got chopped, bears got chopped, I'm favouring another round chopping before a new all time high on the SPX.

In a bull market (stocks) Hedgefunds will dump obscene amount of capital into BTC ETFs. They are mostly gamblers who won't be able to help themselves once they start seeing bullish price action.

The spot ETF stuff is starting to remind me of 2017/18 when it was a bunch of Bitcoin futures ETFs trying to get approved. The SEC refusing them nuked the market. If some entities were looking for exit liquidity and/or to nuke the market then they are doing a great job of setting up for that. Run the price up and then refuse the Blackrock spot ETF (the rest would also pretty much be an insta refuse) and that's a sub 20k Btc.

+25% up from lows is a clear trend over time.Where it’s at currently supports my view for a bullish ATH more than anyone bearish or chopish. perhaps we chop for a month, who knows, but I’d say we might be closer to 4,800 in August than people think.

BTC dominance has broken upwards. I’m assuming a second alt coin rug pull is imminent.

[gib]

We may now be starting to see what happens when all the shitcoinery stops, and money flows back into Bitcoin, being chased by both institutions, HNWs, nation states, and of course retail investors...

At some point in the future there becomes a massive imbalance between supply and demand, leading to a massive price squeeze.

[Flexacon]

+25% up from lows is a clear trend over time.Where it’s at currently supports my view for a bullish ATH more than anyone bearish or chopish. perhaps we chop for a month, who knows, but I’d say we might be closer to 4,800 in August than people think.

BTC dominance has broken upwards. I’m assuming a second alt coin rug pull is imminent.

If you're looking for a long position you should get a nice entry within the next few trading days, but yeah the run up looks like it still has some legs for July/Aug

BTC dominance has broken upwards. I’m assuming a second alt coin rug pull is imminent.

We may now be starting to see what happens when all the shitcoinery stops, and money flows back into Bitcoin, being chased by both institutions, HNWs, nation states, and of course retail investors...

At some point in the future there becomes a massive imbalance between supply and demand, leading to a massive price squeeze.

Come on Gib. You've been here longer than anyone. Shitcoins were far more dead in 2019 than they right now. They would need to drop maybe another 80% to reach 2019 "dead" levels".

That can happen if btc hits 40k plus and shitcoin prices dont move, but more likely 2 more Alt washouts/rug pulls are needed.

The SEC also needs to come out with another list of 50 to 100 coins they deem securities. Coinbase, Binance, Kraken and all the other exchanges need to delist them or the exchanges need to go extinct and then maybe shitcoinery stops.

Anything else is just wishful thinking. Just like the wishful thinking that ETH would be deemed a security.

[gib]

If you look at any shit coin, it basically a bubble and spike followed by a decline to a low which will taper off into basically a dead zombie mode with a few twitches of life before basically dying.

We don't need the SEC to shit coins as shit coins (as the number of shitcoins are infinite). But the message is very clear - deal in unregistered securities and we will come after you. Which is one all the exchanges, are starting to drop all coins expect for BTC and BTC derivatives such as Bitcoin Cash. Eth is in an interesting no-mans land. It is a security, but has such traction that it may survive - let see. But all of this is hugely positive for Bitcoin.

It is certainly possible we could be over 100K per BTC coin by March 2024. Once the demand squeeze happens, the spike will be insane, and self-fulfilling, and very fast. Whether that squeeze happens this year, or next is not certain, but its very likely we will see such a squeeze at some point during this cycle.

[SOMEPARTS]

eature=share


 What do "shitcoins" have in common with Bitcoin? Nearly everything.

[ROBOAK]

eature=share


 What do "shitcoins" have in common with Bitcoin? Nearly everything.

Warren buffet is trying to do a "reverse jim cramer"

[affeman]

I would think we will be well over 100K per BTC coin by March 2024. Once the demand squeeze happens, the spike will be insane, and self-fulfilling, and very fast.

Every time this crap goes up 2-3% immediately some turd pops up and claims BTC will be well over 100K one year from now hahahahaaha

[Slapper]

Solid copium thinking everyone would bitch and moan for missing out on a 43% gain in crypto.

Also there is no ETF being approved in the next 24 hours. There will be no 43% move up in the next 24 hour. I'll continuing waiting in my "trapped" position of doing nothing and miss out on position that at best will do nothing.

On 11/20/22, when you and Mayday were selling everyone on this forum the doom and gloom BS, GBTC was selling at $ 8.27.

It is now $19.19 and looking like it is headed to $40.

Last chance to get on the train... Folks, don't listen to these charlatans because they will scare you out of making money.

[Flexacon]

On 11/20/22, when you and Mayday were selling everyone on this forum the doom and gloom BS, GBTC was selling at $ 8.27.

It is now $19.19 and looking like it is headed to $40.

Last chance to get on the train... Folks, don't listen to these charlatans because they will scare you out of making money.

I know, I know, no VC want to touch it. YET.

When all news are bad and there seems to be no hope, they will announce the flip to an ETF, the stock will go up 43% in one day and everyone will start bitching and moaning about what happened. And we all know what is going to happen to the price of BTC once Grayscale starts being a net buyer again...

Your copium is still going strong I see. You claimed the stock would go up 43% in one day and I'm yet to see it do that.

If you're excited by x2 or x3 gains in crypto over the space of several months after a 90% drop from an ATH, then I'm gonna assume you missed the big moves during previous cycle tops.

Crypto is doing pretty much what I said it would do back when you made that post and  that's very little.

I think the next few months, maybe even all of 2023 will be pretty boring for bitcoin. Sideways price action with the occasional dumps as more leverage unwinds followed by mini pumps from limited buying pressure. Broader market conditions probably won't be in bitcoins favour either.

2024 will be when bitcoin likely starts taking off again. Broader market will hopefully be back in an uptrend and the bitcoin halving narrative will help price action.

[Slapper]

Your copium is still going strong I see. You claimed the stock would go up 43% in one day and I'm yet to see it do that.

When the ETF is approved, yes.

If you're excited by x2 or x3 gains in crypto over the space of several months after a 90% drop from an ATH, then I'm gonna assume you missed the big moves during previous cycle tops.

Wanna know what? I'll put my cock on the chopping block: GBTC will be around $60 in 12 months or less.

Crypto is doing pretty much what I said it would do back when you made that post and  that's very little.

I will post the before and after once my goal is reached. Daily. And I will contrast it with the bull shit doom-and-gloom you and your trannie lover have been posting for the past 7 months.

[Flexacon]

When the ETF is approved, yes.
 

Wanna know what? I'll put my cock on the chopping block: GBTC will be around $60 in 12 months or less.

I will post the before and after once my goal is reached. Daily. And I will contrast it with the bull shit doom-and-gloom you and your trannie lover have been posting for the past 7 months.

My "doom-and-gloom" hasn't been about future upside price targets or bull markets ending. It's been about exchanges, crypto banks and regulations and guess what I've been absolutely right.

The 43% in one day hasn't happened, so now you decide to throw up a random GBTC price target. Do you really need a "win" that badly? Is life really going that bad for you right now?

Solid meltdown though.

[Slapper]

My "doom-and-gloom" hasn't been about future upside price targets or bull markets ending. It's been about exchanges, crypto banks and regulations and guess what I've been absolutely right.

The 43% in one day hasn't happened, so now you decide to throw up a random GBTC price target. Do you really need a "win" that badly? Is life really going that bad for you right now?

Solid meltdown though.

THIRD TIME I HAVE TO TELL YOU THIS: I never said the discount was going to be reduced to zero the next day, I said WHEN IT DOES, you and everyone else will make a 43% gain because at that time the discount was 43%. Now it’s around 32%, so the gain would be 32%.

I’m not saying it is going to happen soon or that you will get a 32% increase in a day. I am saying that once the GBTC trust is turned into an ETF, the news will come out and the stock price will be adjusted the very next trading day. Whatever the discount % is at that moment, you will get.

Would u like me to say in Chinese?

[Flexacon]

THIRD TIME I HAVE TO TELL YOU THIS: I never said the discount was going to be reduced to zero the next day, I said WHEN IT DOES, you and everyone else will make a 43% gain because at that time the discount was 43%. Now it’s around 32%, so the gain would be 32%.

I’m not saying it is going to happen soon or that you will get a 32% increase in a day. I am saying that once the GBTC trust is turned into an ETF, the news will come out and the stock price will be adjusted the very next trading day. Whatever the discount % is at that moment, you will get.

Would u like me to say in Chinese?

Maybe try read your own post. The one I responded to in the post you quoted me on today. For context.

I know, I know, no VC want to touch it. YET.

When all news are bad and there seems to be no hope, they will announce the flip to an ETF, the stock will go up 43% in one day and everyone will start bitching and moaning about what happened. And we all know what is going to happen to the price of BTC once Grayscale starts being a net buyer again...

Okay so now the gain is gonna be 32%, but not in one day. Good climb down after being told months ago a move like that wouldn't happen in one day.

You are bull posting about the discount narrowing a few percentages, but nothing about GBTC has changed. It's still a garbage product and a poor way to get exposure to BTC. You take plenty of exposure to DCG risk, pay through your nose in fees and the potential upside is a few measly percentages. At least wait until a Silbert GBTC spot ETF gets approved before you try claim a "win". I say it won't happen and you can quote me on it.

[Mayday]

I would think we will be well over 100K per BTC coin by March 2024. Once the demand squeeze happens, the spike will be insane, and self-fulfilling, and very fast.

Forever the eternal optimist

You watch when Microstrategy sell some of their holdings……..

This is good news to hear you bullposting again. I like it when you are like this.