Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!

[gib]

Just being faster or running on more powerful hardware doesn’t automatically make a blockchain “better.” Ethereum’s main mission is to be decentralized, permissionless, and neutral — not to chase raw throughput. That’s why Ethereum is designed so validators can run on modest hardware, letting as many people as possible participate in securing the network.

Yes, 32 ETH isn’t pocket change, but compared to corporate giants like Google or major staking services, an individual validator is still “the little guy.”

If Ethereum’s only goal was speed, it could just scale like Solana — which requires enterprise-level servers and a 10G internet connection — but then it would lose decentralization.

BTC Maxis should understand this trade-off well. The block size war that led to the Bitcoin Cash fork was fought over the exact same principle: decentralization over raw speed. Google could build the fastest “blockchain” on Earth — but it would just be a centralized database, subject to censorship and control.

100% Agree. (Just like Eth having "smart contract" capabilities doesn't make it a better store of value than BTC by the way. But, we will, always see "faster, more efficient, better" claims being made from Eth competitors. (Most have given up on the "better for store of value" claims that they tried against BTC. So, that battle has been lost (even by Eth, who shamelessly tried). Will eth succeed as the blockchain for finance? It possible, for some typs of transactions, but I belive we will see many competitors to yet emerge. Its really a constant race to the bottom, in terms of efficiency and cost.

[gib]

One more article on the trickery of staking. This one on an "pro Eth" research website itself.

https://ethresear.ch/t/endgame-staking-economics-a-case-for-targeting/18751

Back at 125...

[Flexacon]

And if markets go parabolic next month or in November, would you still call it a sell-the-news event?

I see it differently — lower interest rates take time to work their magic on risk assets.

0.25 was priced in weeks ago. After the decision you either take some profit and money off the table (I did) or continue holding your long term holds (which I'm also doing) It isn't a time to enter new positions as there is likely a flush soon (for Alts)

If it was a surprise 0.5 rate cut then it would potentially have been a different story.

Q4 was always gonna be bullish crypto. If you're only figuring that out now then you're late to the party

This is just a test pump. Real fireworks are in Q4

[obsidian]

One more article on the trickery of staking. This one on an "pro Eth" research website itself.

https://ethresear.ch/t/endgame-staking-economics-a-case-for-targeting/18751

Back at 125...

Interesting link! Some say ETH is already over-secured, but check this out: staking yields are around 2–3%, and yet ETH inflation is only 0.76% — lower than BTC’s 0.83%. That means ETH burns enough to cancel out about 70% of new supply. And as Ethereum sees more transactions, the burn could scale even higher.

ETH could become deflationary again.

[obsidian]

0.25 was priced in weeks ago. After the decision you either take some profit and money off the table (I did) or continue holding your long term holds (which I'm also doing) It isn't a time to enter new positions as there is likely a flush soon (for Alts)

If it was a surprise 0.5 rate cut then it would potentially have been a different story.

Q4 was always gonna be bullish crypto. If you're only figuring that out now then you're late to the party

I can’t be late to the party because I never sell — lol! I’m always in it, riding the roller coaster up and down — haha.

I did sell some BNB near its ATH recently, but I still think it’s going higher.

I’ve always been bullish on crypto. When have I ever been bearish? It’s you and Mayday who swing all over the place. Most traders end up losing to the casino. It’s better to DCA and HODL — even down to almost zero if necessary. My crypto portfolio is at an all-time high since I started in 2017. It’s gone up and down countless times, but it’s never been this high — even though most alts are still far below their 2021 ATH. Sure, it could drop again — that’s the nature of this beast.

It’s not impossible for Doge to rally to $1–$2+ and beyond, XRP to $10, SOL to $1,000+, ETH to $20–30K, ADA to $5, BNB to $2–3K, and BTC to $200–250K if this bull run has legs. I could be wrong - hell, I've been wrong so many times. I am an optimist when it comes to crypto. Fiat sucks IMO.

[Flexacon]

I can’t be late to the party because I never sell—lol! I’m always in it, riding the roller coaster up and down — haha.

I did sell some BNB near its ATH recently, but I still think it’s going higher.

I’ve always been bullish on crypto. When have I ever been bearish? It’s you and Mayday who swing all over the place. Most traders end up losing to the casino. It’s better to DCA and HODL — even down to almost zero if necessary. My crypto portfolio is at an all-time high since I started in 2017. It’s gone up and down countless times, but it’s never been this high — even though most alts are still far below their 2021 ATH. Sure, it could drop again — that’s the nature of this beast.

It’s not impossible for Doge to rally to $1–$2+ and beyond, XRP to $10, SOL to $1,000+, ETH to $20–30K, ADA to $5, BNB to $2–3K, and BTC to $200–250K if this bull run has legs. I could be wrong - hell, I've been wrong so many times. I am an optimist when it comes to crypto. Fiat sucks IMO.

I think you're mistaken there. Mayday has been all over the place, but I've been more bullish about this cycle than anyone. Your confusion is probably because I was bearish ETH PA, but I was 100% right there. Not as bearish as gib though as I said it would still reach new highs and outperform in late 2025.

When even BTC maxis didn't want to believe the ETF would be approved I was bullish it would.

When the SEC had their foot on the neck of ALTS I was bullish ALTS. When everyone said ETH wouldn't get a spot ETF I was bullish it would

I've finessed this cycle ridiculously well. You've bag held one of the worst performer in ETH and really had no choice to be bullish. I actually spent a good amount of time back 2023/24 trying to explain to that ETH L2s and defi protocols were being farmed by ETH foundation members and that they didn't care about the price of ETH, but you wouldn't listen.

Your crypto portfolio only being at an ATH this late in the cycle is something I'd consider a huge failure. You biggest holding was the worst performer by far of the top 5 tokens this cycle. I mean you got outperformed by XRP holders 

At least you're not that guy who went all in pulsechain and claimed it would kill ETH

[obsidian]

I think you're mistaken there. Mayday has been all over the place, but I've been more bullish about this cycle than anyone. Your confusion is probably because I was bearish ETH PA, but I was 100% right there. Not as bearish as gib though as I said it would still reach new highs and outperform in late 2025.

When even BTC maxis didn't want to believe the ETF would be approved I was bullish it would.

When the SEC had their foot on the neck of ALTS I was bullish ALTS. When everyone said ETH wouldn't get a spot ETF I was bullish it would

I've finessed this cycle ridiculously well. You've bag held one of the worst performer in ETH and really had no choice to be bullish. I actually spent a good amount of time back 2023/24 trying to explain to that ETH L2s and defi protocols were being farmed by ETH foundation members and that they didn't care about the price of ETH, but you wouldn't listen.

Your crypto portfolio only being at an ATH this late in the cycle is something I'd consider a huge failure. You biggest holding was the worst performer by far of the top 5 tokens this cycle. I mean you got outperformed by XRP holders 

At least you're not that guy who went all in pulsechain and claimed it would kill ETH

You still don’t get it. ETH’s “horrible” performance doesn’t matter in my scenario because I held straight through it. Losses only exist if you sell — and I don’t.

ETH is up 3.2× since April — that’s more than 221% in just 5 months. Sure, in a perfect world, I could’ve sold all my ETH in March 2024 at $4,000 and bought back in April 2025 at $1,400. But that’s hindsight, and I’m not a trader.

For me, DCA and HODL is the best strategy.

It's all relative. ETH is up more than XRP the past 5 years.

BTC: 1,212.38%
ETH: 1,878.80%
XRP: 1,165.17%
BNB: 5,052.11%
DOGE: 11,350.58%

Doge and BNB have outperformed BTC by 5–10× over the past five years.

But snapshots can be misleading. XRP recently “outperformed” because its price was buried in the gutter for years — it just repriced. The same thing is happening with ETH. It hit the gutter in April and is already starting to recover.

ETH’s supply is only 6× BTC’s, and it has a lot of advantages over Bitcoin. The current ETH:BTC ratio is a joke, and I expect it to recover much higher.

ETH staking yields 2–3%, while token inflation is only 0.75% — lower than BTC’s current inflation and far below SOL’s 6–7%. And if transaction volume scales across L1 and L2s, it might even go inflationary again.

Ethereum isn’t perfect, but honestly — show me a blockchain that is.

[Flexacon]

You still don’t get it. ETH’s “horrible” performance doesn’t matter in my scenario because I held straight through it. Losses only exist if you sell — and I don’t.
......
Ethereum isn’t perfect, but honestly — show me a blockchain that is.

And you still don't get that you got bag holder mentality.

[Griffith]

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says the stablecoin market will exceed $2 TRILLION in the next few years

https://www.theblock.co/post/357872/us-stablecoin-market-could-exceed-2-trillion-projection-by-end-of-2028-thinks-treasury-secretary-bessent

ETH stablecoins are now at almost $180 billion out of a total market cap of $251 billion.

65.4% of stablecoins are on Ethereum.

More than 80% of stablecoin activity occurs on Ethereum and Binance Smart Chain networks.

Stablecoins account for 40% of total crypto exchange trading volume.

DeFi and Trading dominate stablecoin activity, making up 67% of total usage.

Merchant payments account for 5%, reflecting gradual adoption in retail and commerce.


https://coinlaw.io/stablecoin-statistics/

[Flexacon]

Time to bump these posts from 3 months ago as the rest of the industry is finally catching up with my prediction. Cards from the major players are finally on the table

Now seems highly probable that a new payment alternative emerges in the US (replacing credit/debit cards) on top of stablecoin rails. Just too damn efficient & cheap. Good riddance as they say! Who do you think is most likely to emerge as the new consumer payment app leader?

Apple/Amazon/Google/Meta
Coinbase/Square/RH/SoFi
Circle/Tether/Dai
New startup

https://x.com/bgurley/status/1968357601563001184

The aim of Ethereum is to digitize global wealth, with mass-adoption of stablecoins for payments and savings and tokenization of assets and stocks, this would push the market cap into trillions.

Doesn't look like it will be done on Eth (not even with L2s and L3s) but Eth will play a role as a security layer.

The biggest hurdle for institutional adoption is KYC, cross boarder payments, transactions per second and making all that frictionless.

Whichever L1 or L2 solves that stands to win. Eth and it L2s can't do the required transactions per second, Solana is a meme chain and XRP is just a hustle

[Griffith]

Time to bump these posts from 3 months ago as the rest of the industry is finally catching up with my prediction. Cards from the major players are finally on the table

Now seems highly probable that a new payment alternative emerges in the US (replacing credit/debit cards) on top of stablecoin rails. Just too damn efficient & cheap. Good riddance as they say! Who do you think is most likely to emerge as the new consumer payment app leader?

Apple/Amazon/Google/Meta
Coinbase/Square/RH/SoFi
Circle/Tether/Dai
New startup

https://x.com/bgurley/status/1968357601563001184

The aim of Ethereum is to digitize global wealth, with mass-adoption of stablecoins for payments and savings and tokenization of assets and stocks, this would push the market cap into trillions.

65.4% of stablecoins are on Ethereum, up from closer to 40% last year and higher than in June this year.

The Fusaka upgrade in December will enable the Ethereum ecosystem do 100 000 transactions per second (TPS).

The Ethereum Foundation is working on interoperability between L1 and L2's to make them 'like one chain.'

Ondo, eToro and Robinhood are already tokenizing stocks using Ethereum. BlackRock’s BUIDL tokenized fund is on Ethereum.

In August, Ethereum’s stablecoin supply increased 13% by more than $17 billion, more than all other blockchains combined, according to data from Artemis. Ethereum is outpacing its rivals in the stablecoin market.

Coinbase analysts forecast that stablecoin supply will surpass $1 trillion by 2028.

https://www.dlnews.com/articles/defi/ethereum-stablecoin-adds-17bn-whats-driving-the-growth/

[obsidian]

Another new ATH for BNB!

$ 1,028.01 (Today)

[obsidian]

And you still don't get that you got bag holder mentality.

Haha that's me. But it's better than buying high and selling low! 

Are you someone that actively trades crypto? Would you say it's been profitable? What do you have to show for it? You live in Australia - correct? What are your tax rates for long and short-term capital gains?

Here in the US:

For 2025 tax year (current law), the federal long-term capital gains tax brackets are:

• 0% for taxable income up to about $47,025 (single) / $94,050 (married filing jointly)
• 15% for taxable income between that and about $518,900 (single) / $583,750 (married filing jointly)
• 20% for income above those levels

In contrast, short-term capital gains (assets held ≤ 1 year) are taxed at your ordinary income tax rates, which can be as high as 37%.
So for example:

• If you’re in the 24% tax bracket, your short-term gains are taxed at 24%.
• If you’re in the 37% bracket, they’re taxed at 37%.

⚖️ In other words:

• Short-term = ordinary income tax rates (10%–37%)
• Long-term = special reduced rates (0%, 15%, 20%, or special cases like 25%/28%)

[obsidian]

Interesting link! Some say ETH is already over-secured, but check this out: staking yields are around 2–3%, and yet ETH inflation is only 0.76% — lower than BTC’s 0.83%. That means ETH burns enough to cancel out about 70% of new supply. And as Ethereum sees more transactions, the burn could scale even higher.

ETH could become deflationary again.

I have to correct myself - my calcs were off: 70% of the new supply is not burned. It's a lot less.

Ethereum’s net inflation is ~0.76% per year because the newly issued ETH (~958,620 ETH/year) is distributed only to the ~29% of ETH that is staked, not to the entire supply. Stakers therefore earn 2–3% APR, while the global supply grows slowly, since most ETH holders receive no new issuance and only a small amount is burned (~44,200 ETH/year).

But the amount of ETH burned could increase if transaction volume scales a lot across the L1 and L2s

Current ETH 30 Day Stats:

ETH L1: 21 TPS (Average)
ETH Rollups (23): 231 TPS (Average)
ETH Others (98): 221 TPS (Average)
ETH Validiums (3): 1 TPS (Average)
ETH Not Reviewed (21): 4 TPS (Average)

https://l2beat.com/scaling/activity

Rollups are L2s that periodically post state commitments to Ethereum. These commitments are validated by either Validity Proofs or are accepted optimistically and can be challenged via Fraud Proof mechanism within a certain fraud proof window. Additionally L2 data is also posted to Ethereum, hence there are no additional trust assumptions introduced.

Validiums and Optimiums are L2s that, similarly to Rollups, periodically post state commitments to Ethereum that are validated by it, however data is not posted to Ethereum. This means that additional trust assumptions, external to Ethereum, are introduced to prevent data withholding attacks.

Others are L2s that either lack a working proof system or don't provide sufficient external DA guarantees (i.e. at least 5 independent attesters, a high enough threshold, or a proper DA bridge). To be listed in this category, the L2 must enshrine deposits from L1.

Not reviewed are projects that have not yet undergone an initial research review, meaning L2BEAT has not confirmed their type or risk properties.

Note that Sony's Soneium is number four on the Others L2 list and operating around 20 TPS

Base is the number one L2 Rollup, with a max TPS of around 162.

[Flexacon]

Haha that's me. But it's better than buying high and selling low! 

Are you someone that actively trades crypto? Would you say it's been profitable? What do you have to show for it? You live in Australia - correct? What are your tax rates for long and short-term capital gains?

Here in the US:

For 2025 tax year (current law), the federal long-term capital gains tax brackets are:

• 0% for taxable income up to about $47,025 (single) / $94,050 (married filing jointly)
• 15% for taxable income between that and about $518,900 (single) / $583,750 (married filing jointly)
• 20% for income above those levels

In contrast, short-term capital gains (assets held ≤ 1 year) are taxed at your ordinary income tax rates, which can be as high as 37%.
So for example:

• If you’re in the 24% tax bracket, your short-term gains are taxed at 24%.
• If you’re in the 37% bracket, they’re taxed at 37%.

⚖️ In other words:

• Short-term = ordinary income tax rates (10%–37%)
• Long-term = special reduced rates (0%, 15%, 20%, or special cases like 25%/28%)

No I'm in UK. No I don't pay crypto taxes as I went to Dubai during the bear market and set up a business there to avoid paying crypto taxes for the next bull market. That's how bullish I was about this cycle.

I retired from crypto profits in 2021. That's what I have to show from my crypto activities.

As for using your tax situation contributing to your bag holding, I already told you several years back to set yourself up in Puerto Rico if you wanted to avoid crypto taxes.

[obsidian]

Here's a scenario:

https://ethereum-blob-simulator.netlify.app/

ETH L2 Rollups: 56
TPS per Rollup: 40
TPS Demand: 56 x 40 = 2,240 TPS
Target Blobs per Block: 6
Max Blobs per Block: 9
ETH Price: $10,000
Transaction Bytes: 180
Default Price Sensitivity
Fee Jitter Disabled
Ludicrous Mode Disabled

Total ETH Burnt Per Day: 5,901.91
Total ETH Burnt per Year: 5,901.91 x 356 = 2,154,197.15 ETH (-1.795% / year)

Total ETH Issued per Year @ 0.77% growth: 973,000 ETH

Total Supply Growth:  973,000 - 2,154,197.15 = -1,181,197.15 ETH

Total Deflation: 1,181,197.15 / 121,000,000 x 100 = 0.9759%

That would result in a supply deflation of 0.9759% if the total supply of ETH was 121 million.

[obsidian]

No I'm in UK. No I don't pay crypto taxes as I went to Dubai during the bear market and set up a business there to avoid paying crypto taxes for the next bull market. That's how bullish I was about this cycle.

I retired from crypto profits in 2021. That's what I have to show from my crypto activities.

As for using your tax situation contributing to your bag holding, I already told you several years back to set yourself up in Puerto Rico if you wanted to avoid crypto taxes.

And that's unworkable. My wife would not make that move, I need to visit my mom weekly. So your Puerto Rico suggestion is not a solution for me.

Puerto Rico tax benefits require bona fide residency

You must actually live in Puerto Rico and meet the IRS tests (physical presence, closer connections, etc.).

Simply “declaring” Puerto Rico as your tax home while physically living in, say, New York or California, does not work. The IRS will consider you a US resident for tax purposes and tax your crypto gains as usual.

US federal taxation still applies

As a US citizen, you are taxed on worldwide income regardless of where you live, unless you genuinely qualify for an exclusion (like Puerto Rico residency).

So if you live in your current US state, you owe normal federal and state taxes on crypto gains.

State taxes

Even if somehow Puerto Rico law applied (it wouldn’t without actual residency), your state would still likely tax your crypto unless you moved there too.

Bottom line: You cannot avoid US crypto taxes while continuing to live in your current state. The only legitimate way to use the Puerto Rico tax advantage is to actually move and establish bona fide residency there.

[obsidian]

No I'm in UK. No I don't pay crypto taxes as I went to Dubai during the bear market and set up a business there to avoid paying crypto taxes for the next bull market.

Claim: “I don’t pay crypto taxes as I went to Dubai during the bear market and set up a business there”

Reality: Dubai (UAE) does not have personal income tax, and crypto gains by individuals are generally not taxed. Setting up a business there can shield business income from taxes, but residency rules matter. Simply registering a business doesn’t automatically exempt you from taxes in your home country.

UK context: The UK taxes worldwide income and capital gains for tax residents. To fully avoid UK crypto taxes, you must cease UK tax residency (which is non-trivial, involves the Statutory Residence Test, days in/out, ties to UK, etc.). Simply “going to Dubai” for a few months or even years without severing UK residency doesn’t guarantee you avoid taxes.

Verdict: Plausible in Dubai if they truly changed residency, but UK authorities are strict. Could be exaggerating.

[obsidian]

I retired from crypto profits in 2021. That's what I have to show from my crypto activities.

So you retired in 2021, and since then you’ve been trading crypto, right? How’s that been going? Is your portfolio actually growing, or are you burning through profits on things that lose value? For example, some people cash out to buy a fancy car — but five years later, that car is worth a fraction of what they paid, and newer models have made it outdated. If you’d kept that value in crypto instead, it might have grown significantly rather than sitting in a depreciating asset.

[Flexacon]

So you retired in 2021, and since then you’ve been trading crypto, right? How’s that been going? Is your portfolio actually growing, or are you burning through profits on things that lose value? For example, some people cash out to buy a fancy car — but five years later, that car is worth a fraction of what they paid, and newer models have made it outdated. If you’d kept that value in crypto instead, it might have grown significantly rather than sitting in a depreciating asset.

I didn't trade crypto post merge until the end of 2023. And my first buy back in x5ed in a month.

I'm not an ETH holder, so no I'm not burning through profits or losing value on anything 

[Flexacon]

Claim: “I don’t pay crypto taxes as I went to Dubai during the bear market and set up a business there”

Reality: Dubai (UAE) does not have personal income tax, and crypto gains by individuals are generally not taxed. Setting up a business there can shield business income from taxes, but residency rules matter. Simply registering a business doesn’t automatically exempt you from taxes in your home country.

UK context: The UK taxes worldwide income and capital gains for tax residents. To fully avoid UK crypto taxes, you must cease UK tax residency (which is non-trivial, involves the Statutory Residence Test, days in/out, ties to UK, etc.). Simply “going to Dubai” for a few months or even years without severing UK residency doesn’t guarantee you avoid taxes.

Verdict: Plausible in Dubai if they truly changed residency, but UK authorities are strict. Could be exaggerating.

Sounds like quite a butthurt post. Keep up the saltiness

"Could be exaggerating" Yeah maybe if there wasn't several thousands who have done the same thing and their are even offices and handlers out there who do all the leg work to set people up.

[obsidian]

Sounds like quite a butthurt post. Keep up the saltiness

"Could be exaggerating" Yeah maybe if there wasn't several thousands who have done the same thing and their are even offices and handlers out there who do all the leg work to set people up.

Spill the details. Did you leave the UK permanently? Do you live in Dubai most of your time? Are you still a British Citizen? I like details.

[obsidian]

I didn't trade crypto post merge until the end of 2023. And my first buy back in x5ed in a month.

I'm not an ETH holder, so no I'm not burning through profits or losing value on anything 

ETH at its current price has held better value than depreciating assets that were bought in 2021. Yes, it still needs to increase by 1.86x to match BTC's current move above its 2021 ATH.

But this is a marathon. Let's revisit in a few months. I am saving this url.

[Flexacon]

ETH at its current price has held better value than depreciating assets that were bought in 2021. Yes, it still needs to increase by 1.86x to match BTC's current move above its 2021 ATH.

But this is a marathon. Let's revisit in a few months. I am saving this url.

And what exactly are you saving it for?

[obsidian]

And what exactly are you saving it for?

So we can see if ETH is a loser as you claim. I don't want to dig through many pages to find our posts.