Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!

[obsidian]

Eth valued against BTC, over time...

Zoom out more. The trend is UP!!



https://www.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=BINANCE%3AETHBTC

[obsidian]

I of course take no delight in the continued decline and pain in "alts", but I do have to say both "I told you so" and "its not too late".

If we could all live in a magical world, where all assets, copies, and scams etc rose infinitely, that would be amazing. But it's not reality. Economic energy is scarce and finite. And it is best stored in scarce and finite assets. We have gold in the physical world. BTC in the digital world which functions even better. And it is vital that we stay away from any BTC affinity scam, any "alt", any pretend "we are the next BTC coin", any false narrative, any "this other one is cheaper than BTC", etc.

Reality is that if we all converge on a single digital store of value, we all win. And the other way, if we are divided we fall. Tom Lee took some quick money, tricked a few"speculators, compromised himself, and made a fool out of himself with his "Eth Treasury company". I pointed out how this would end up only a few months ago...

Will Eth actually hit the $500-$600 range that it I value it on a discounted cashflow analysis? Possibly - what we do know is that it will at least trend in that direction over time. But how quickly, and how lumpy, no one can be sure.

BTC is down -4.38% today. ETH is doing better. ZEC is up + 14.02%. Go ZEC!

Gib, you tend to prematurely call things. ETH would be declared a security. ETH would never get an ETF, etc. This is a marathon race. Ethereum is being built out and scaled up. The financial system is being built on it. JP Morgan's stablecoin has been announced on an ETH L2. There are many other recent positive developments.

Bitcoin has ossified. Its long-term security budget is uncertain. You've backed a special snowflake with worse fundamentals than Ethereum. For now you've gotten lucky. Let's see 10-20 years from now.

[obsidian]

Do you think the bull is over?

Only BTC and BNB have actually had a real bull run so far. ETH has been basically in a bear market for nearly two years, not rallying. XRP only just clawed its way back to its 2018 ATH. SOL had a brief hype spike but, like XRP, mostly just recovered after its massive crash. DOGE hasn’t even come close to touching its 2021 all-time high.

For most major alts, the real bull hasn’t even started. Honestly, it would be hilarious (and entertaining) if BTC cools off in 2026 and we get an alt-supercycle instead. At this point, it almost deserves to happen just to take the wind out of the nonstop gloating and obnoxious behavior from BTC maxis.

[MuscleBuff]

Only BTC and BNB have actually had a real bull run so far. ETH has been basically in a bear market for nearly two years, not rallying. XRP only just clawed its way back to its 2018 ATH. SOL had a brief hype spike but, like XRP, mostly just recovered after its massive crash. DOGE hasn’t even come close to touching its 2021 all-time high.

For most major alts, the real bull hasn’t even started. Honestly, it would be hilarious (and entertaining) if BTC cools off in 2026 and we get an alt-supercycle instead. At this point, it almost deserves to happen just to take the wind out of the nonstop gloating and obnoxious behavior from BTC maxis.

Are you saying there is still hope for an alt season?

[obsidian]

Are you saying there is still hope for an alt season?

I have no idea. Most alts never had a real bull run since 2021, and Gib thinks alts are dead. But if that’s true, then exchanges like Coinbase and Binance might as well close shop—because Bitcoin alone doesn’t create a sustainable business for them.

It’s fair to say that these exchanges have a vested interest in altcoins doing well. Their revenue depends on trading activity, and altcoins generate far more volume, volatility, and fees than Bitcoin alone. If only BTC and BNB are pumping (not counting ZEC's current move), as we’ve seen recently, retail interest dries up, trading slows down, and the entire ecosystem feels dead.

Exchanges can’t build around just Bitcoin. It only does ~7 TPS, and it can’t support all the activity that keeps users engaged. They rely heavily on the long tail of altcoins for listing fees, staking, futures, liquidity pools, and general speculation. If altcoins stay in a multi-year slump while Bitcoin dominates, there’s a real risk that people check out of crypto entirely.

A Bitcoin-only market may be fine for maximalists, but it’s not healthy for exchanges or the broader industry.

[MuscleBuff]

I don't see it as out of the question that the entire crypto industry will die off over the next decade as all alts slow rug into nothingness.

[obsidian]

I don't see it as out of the question that the entire crypto industry will die off over the next decade as all alts slow rug into nothingness.

The new financial system will almost certainly be built on crypto infrastructure. Sending stablecoins across the world in seconds or minutes is already possible today - it just isn’t mainstream yet. But it’s only a matter of time before it is. I don’t see the crypto industry dying off, but the idea of millions of tokens surviving long-term is unrealistic. Most of them will eventually fade away, leaving only the projects with real utility and adoption.

[Flexacon]

I don't see it as out of the question that the entire crypto industry will die off over the next decade as all alts slow rug into nothingness.

Crypto (alts) are having/will have their dot.com moment to cleanse out all the trash. The ones that will be successful in the future will be revenue generating and they will support token prices with buybacks just like you see with stocks. The shift has already started.

[affeman]

All the hot air from the Trump administration has squibbed by now. Once BTC falls below 90k the dam has broken.

The lucky one's who are still able to take a profit should do so right now.

[Grape Ape]

Only BTC and BNB have actually had a real bull run so far. ETH has been basically in a bear market for nearly two years, not rallying. XRP only just clawed its way back to its 2018 ATH. SOL had a brief hype spike but, like XRP, mostly just recovered after its massive crash. DOGE hasn’t even come close to touching its 2021 all-time high.

For most major alts, the real bull hasn’t even started. Honestly, it would be hilarious (and entertaining) if BTC cools off in 2026 and we get an alt-supercycle instead. At this point, it almost deserves to happen just to take the wind out of the nonstop gloating and obnoxious behavior from BTC maxis.

For some reason, my feeds have been getting a lot of XRP stuff.  I don't usually even get crypto videos.

[gib]

For some reason, my feeds have been getting a lot of XRP stuff.  I don't usually even get crypto videos.

XRP are masters of scam-bots and use of AI to pump. It will be all revealed one day, and some of the most senior leaders who are aware of and encouraging this will be convicted. Likely after Trump if they don't pay enough money to the next guy.

[gib]

Crypto (alts) are having/will have their dot.com moment to cleanse out all the trash. The ones that will be successful in the future will be revenue generating and they will support token prices with buybacks just like you see with stocks. The shift has already started.

Fully agree - that is what I have always been saying all along. I would add further, that they will be, over time, be valued based on the revenue they bring in (and expected future revenue) - eg a standard DCF analysis just as you apply to any stock to value it. Based on this, I calculated a fair value of Eth to ve currently in the 500-600 USD range, and concluded that whilst almost all even "such" revenue earning projects are vastly overvalued, ChainLink and Uniswap look interesting at a certain price point, and Filecoin already is.

As opposed to BTC, whose entire use case itself, is the hedge for debasement of money, and which should start to pump as soon as liquidity is put back into the system.

Every cycle a lesson is learned. But every new cycle, people come along who think they know better...