Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!

[Flexacon]

What about bitcoins held on major exchanges, are they safe?
And also, wouldn't that then actually drive up the price of bitcoin as some of them become worthless?

Yes, exchanges would migrate to quantum resistant wallets too.

At a minimum the price will stay flat, but yes it probably drives the price up

[Mayday]

Same play as 2022. The masses making fun of "it's over" while still holding because they think if they say it's over, it won't be and they get a pump.

Everyone is sitting in alts, always were.ahead is 3yrs of the worst rug pulls you have ever seen. It'll be non-stop on alts and will flow on to impact ETH.

[obsidian]

Same play as 2022. The masses making fun of "it's over" while still holding because they think if they say it's over, it won't be and they get a pump.

Everyone is sitting in alts, always were.ahead is 3yrs of the worst rug pulls you have ever seen. It'll be non-stop on alts and will flow on to impact ETH.

Most KOLs have called the bull cycle over, and have exited all alts. They mostly hold BTC. BTC could drop 90% to just under $10,000 and millions of people would still be in profit. Gib bought BTC at $5k. he would still be at a 2x if BTC dropped 90% from where it is now. The same is not true for alts. Many people, especially those still holding, have been underwater for years.

Most people holding alts now are believers, not "jeets" like you or Flex-a-Con. They've already been in a bear market for 3 years. There is no point in them selling. BTC is way overvalued based on its scarcity compared with many alts. Go look at the circulating supplies. There's 6 ETH for every 1 BTC, but BTC is trading at around 30 ETH. 7 BNB for every 1 BTC. Less than 1 ZEC for every 1 BTC.

Bitcoin Dominance has been falling steadily since 2016, and what we've seen is a series of lower highs. BTC.D had 3 yearly green candles then a massive dump in 2021. It's had 4 annual green candles since 2022, and this last one in 2025 has matched the 2020 candle. BTC.D may be due for a big dominance downside correction again. What if BTC.D dumps to 30% in 2026-2027?

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/JhkJkbxB/?symbol=CRYPTOCAP%3ABTC.D

[obsidian]

This guy is hilarious!

9:37
No, it just looks like it's been going down forever, because you have Bitcoin maxis coming out saying, “See, utility and all these things are worth nothing.”
And then everyone comes out and they say, “I love using Bitcoin. Ah, Bitcoin, I love using it, it's got so much use case.”

9:44
Yeah? What do you use it for? What do you use it for?

9:51
“Store of value.”

9:57
What do you use it for, bro? What do you actually use your Bitcoin for?

10:02
They go, “By the way, you know, store of value. You know, if Bitcoin drops 90% tomorrow and stays there for 10 years, you know, there's still 150 million people who've made money on it, stored their value.”

10:08 – 10:14
So it'll come. It'll come. It's not going to drop. Of course it's not going to drop 90%. That'll send the industry to zero.

10:20
But everything you've seen from the crowd of non-believers who are holding BTC…

10:26
…they will be tested. Their balls will be squeezed…

10:31
…and they will question what the hell they're holding in the first place.

[obsidian]

Good and interesting point, but what about what the other getbigger mentioned: quantum computing breaking keys? Imagine that happens, can they still manage such an event?

Flex is a short-term “jeet” trader. He’s not a believer, so long-term timelines mean nothing to him. He’ll ride Bitcoin when it’s moving and then exit to fiat because he has zero interest in being a bag-holder. Whether quantum computers break Bitcoin’s algorithm or it suffers a 51% attack a decade from now is irrelevant to someone trading the short cycles.

And yes, he’s right about one thing: the powers that be will do everything possible to keep Bitcoin afloat, even mining at a loss or stepping in with U.S. military-level intervention. But that simply turns BTC into a U.S.-controlled asset rather than a global one.

[Griffith]

BlackRock Files for Staked Ethereum ETF

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/blackrock-files-staked-ethereum-etf-135422967.html

[Mayday]

Most KOLs have called the bull cycle over, and have exited all alts. They mostly hold BTC. BTC could drop 90% to just under $10,000 and millions of people would still be in profit. Gib bought BTC at $5k. he would still be at a 2x if BTC dropped 90% from where it is now. The same is not true for alts. Many people, especially those still holding, have been underwater for years.

Most people holding alts now are believers, not "jeets" like you or Flex-a-Con. They've already been in a bear market for 3 years. There is no point in them selling. BTC is way overvalued based on its scarcity compared with many alts. Go look at the circulating supplies. There's 6 ETH for every 1 BTC, but BTC is trading at around 30 ETH. 7 BNB for every 1 BTC. Less than 1 ZEC for every 1 BTC.

Bitcoin Dominance has been falling steadily since 2016, and what we've seen is a series of lower highs. BTC.D had 3 yearly green candles then a massive dump in 2021. It's had 4 annual green candles since 2022, and this last one in 2025 has matched the 2020 candle. BTC.D may be due for a big dominance downside correction again. What if BTC.D dumps to 30% in 2026-2027?

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/JhkJkbxB/?symbol=CRYPTOCAP%3ABTC.D

Exactly the same thing people said in 2022. Each leg down, they'd repeat - "that's the last flush out" *no point in selling, they'll hold from now on" then we'd leg down again. Why? Because there are no buyers,, only sellers for years and years.....

KOLs are grifters with paid groups who dump new tokens on their followers. Don't believe anything they say.

I did say it would be timing the rotation that would fuck everyone. There is a high probability ETH won't substantially beat the ATH from 2021 until after 2033.  Meanwhile BTC already has 156k target iron clad guarantee.

[obsidian]

Exactly the same thing people said in 2022. Each leg down, they'd repeat - "that's the last flush out" *no point in selling, they'll hold from now on" then we'd leg down again. Why? Because there are no buyers,, only sellers for years and years.....

KOLs are grifters with paid groups who dump new tokens on their followers. Don't believe anything they say.

I did say it would be timing the rotation that would fuck everyone. There is a high probability ETH won't substantially beat the ATH from 2021 until after 2033.  Meanwhile BTC already has 156k target iron clad guarantee.

Ok, lol, if you say so!

You’re mixing cycles. Most alts already had their 80–95% bear market from 2021–2024. The “more legs down” argument doesn’t apply when the flush already happened.

BTC dominance has made lower highs since 2016 — that’s a 9-year structure, not an opinion.
2025 didn’t break the pattern.

BTC holders can tank an 80–90% drop and still be in profit. Alt holders can’t — they already ate their losses years ago.

Nothing in markets is “iron-clad guaranteed,” including 156k BTC. That’s cult language, not analysis.

Saying ETH won’t break ATH until 2033 is just a random date — nobody can forecast a decade out in crypto.

Asking whether BTC.D could retrace toward 30–40% is valid because it fits the long-term dominance chart and every previous rotation cycle.

[obsidian]

Mayday thinks ETH is not going much above $5k until 2033. 

I guess all the DATs and BlackRock investors will be fine with that given that the M2 money supply expands by about 8% annually.

What a "jeet"!

https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/12/08/blackrock-files-for-staked-ethereum-etf-aiming-to-bring-yield-to-the-masses

BlackRock Files for Staked Ethereum ETF

The iShares Ethereum Staking Trust marks a bold push into on-chain yield exposure, as the SEC's tone has shifted under new leadership.

BlackRock has officially filed for a staked Ethereum ETF, marking its first formal move toward SEC approval.
The filing reflects a shift in SEC policy under new Chair Paul Atkins after earlier pushback on staking features.
BlackRock’s existing Ethereum fund holds $11B in ETH, but the new ETF would offer separate staking exposure.

[MuscleBuff]

Ok, lol, if you say so!

You’re mixing cycles. Most alts already had their 80–95% bear market from 2021–2024. The “more legs down” argument doesn’t apply when the flush already happened.

BTC dominance has made lower highs since 2016 — that’s a 9-year structure, not an opinion.
2025 didn’t break the pattern.

BTC holders can tank an 80–90% drop and still be in profit. Alt holders can’t — they already ate their losses years ago.

Nothing in markets is “iron-clad guaranteed,” including 156k BTC. That’s cult language, not analysis.

Saying ETH won’t break ATH until 2033 is just a random date — nobody can forecast a decade out in crypto.

Asking whether BTC.D could retrace toward 30–40% is valid because it fits the long-term dominance chart and every previous rotation cycle.

Some alts like polkadot appear to have no bottom though

[Mayday]

lol we can chuckle yes.

I have posted plenty of accurate targets for BTC in advance. Next top is 156k. Even my S&P call which copped flack nailed it.

I also posted if you can't read the DXY you are toast.

It's all irrelevant banter in the end as the wrecked forget. 1M new tokens per week yet nobody holds alts and everyone already sold.

j posted this ages ago. If we do not cleanse this cycle, we will go another 4yrs of nothing. You either pray for Hell, or you pray for patience, then hell.

[obsidian]

lol we can chuckle yes.

I have posted plenty of accurate targets for BTC in advance. Next top is 156k. Even my S&P call which copped flack nailed it.

I also posted if you can't read the DXY you are toast.

It's all irrelevant banter in the end as the wrecked forget. 1M new tokens per week yet nobody holds alts and everyone already sold.

j posted this ages ago. If we do not cleanse this cycle, we will go another 4yrs of nothing. You either pray for Hell, or you pray for patience, then hell.

I'm referring specifically to the top altcoins that have been around for 8–10 years or longer — not the million-plus junk tokens floating around.

BTC.D is now dropping in line with previous cycles. I think Tom Lee is right: the traditional 4-year cycle is either stretching into a 5-year cycle or it’s dead altogether. Meanwhile, the U.S. manufacturing PMI has been declining for 37 straight months. For perspective, during the Great Depression the downturn lasted 30 months. So the macro backdrop is far from normal.

Look at the candles again below. The massive BTC.D drops in 2017 and 2021 are obvious. And if you compare the structure, the green candles from 2022–2025 fade in almost the exact same way as the 2018–2020 period. Yes, we’re seeing one extra year here — 2025 — but that doesn’t break the pattern. So what could trigger a major BTC.D collapse in 2026?

ETH repricing.

Ethereum is completely undervalued right now. It should be trading in the $15k–$20k range. But the market has been irrational for several reasons: Gensler refusing to call ETH a commodity, the nonstop “number-go-up” branding of BTC, the Soylana meme-coin casino siphoning liquidity, the Bybit hack that force-sold ETH into BTC, and more. ETH has basically been mispriced for years.

Once ETH is finally marketed as a numbers-go-up asset — as it should have been since 2018 — BTC dominance will drop hard again, just like prior cycles.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=CRYPTOCAP%3ABTC.D

[obsidian]

BlackRock Files for Staked Ethereum ETF

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/blackrock-files-staked-ethereum-etf-135422967.html

I just noticed you posted that news before my post.

You made a great call selling some ETH at the recent ATH. Did you buy back what you sold? 2024 and 2025 were absolute gift years for accumulating more ETH. I don’t trade, but in hindsight I probably should have — though realistically, I wouldn’t have known where the tops and bottoms were anyway.

[Flexacon]

Exactly the same thing people said in 2022. Each leg down, they'd repeat - "that's the last flush out" *no point in selling, they'll hold from now on" then we'd leg down again. Why? Because there are no buyers,, only sellers for years and years.....

KOLs are grifters with paid groups who dump new tokens on their followers. Don't believe anything they say.

I did say it would be timing the rotation that would fuck everyone. There is a high probability ETH won't substantially beat the ATH from 2021 until after 2033.  Meanwhile BTC already has 156k target iron clad guarantee.

Eth will probably put in a parapolic move on the next BTC run to ATH/local top.

Altseason has been staggered with a single large alt moving with each new BTC all time high

First BTC hits a ATH and then finds a local top. Alongside this a selected Alt and its ecosystem puts in a parabolic move and tops out.

Q4 2024 TRON topped

Jan 2025 was SOL

Summer 2025  XRP

Oct 2025 BNB

Only ETH left now, but it needs BTC to run first

[obsidian]

Interesting Tom Lee interview.

[Mayday]

Eth will probably put in a parapolic move on the next BTC run to ATH/local top.

Altseason has been staggered with a single large alt moving with each new BTC all time high

First BTC hits a ATH and then finds a local top. Alongside this a selected Alt and its ecosystem puts in a parabolic move and tops out.

Q4 2024 TRON topped

Jan 2025 was SOL

Summer 2025  XRP

Oct 2025 BNB

Only ETH left now, but it needs BTC to run first

There is always the possibility.

Although BTC has been losing steam the past year. First move up we pulled back 1 level, next move up we dropped 2 levels, last move up we dropped 3 levels. Each high was lower % gain. This last pullback is the first time we have gone below a prior top.

156k is in the bag for next top target so that's what matters. It's a nice sizeable move above the last ATH but it needs oomph, not an asthmatic push.

DXY will fuck people. a little tick down, BTC tags 99k then Jan to Apr bloodbath is likely. Target is 1.05 Sep next year.  Run out to 2028 could be super rocky which makes me talk 2033, hence once Trump won i lengthened my timeframe because it's basically lost until it isn't.

I had ETH at 5.1k top. We got 4,950 so pretty bloody close. Like last time, the strategy is to keep people in, hoping for one last pump. I don't lwatch crypto because it's just a huge waste of time. If the too is in, it's like 3yrs of pretending it isn't lol.

[obsidian]

I had ETH at 5.1k top. We got 4,950 so pretty bloody close. Like last time, the strategy is to keep people in, hoping for one last pump. I don't lwatch crypto because it's just a huge waste of time. If the too is in, it's like 3yrs of pretending it isn't lol.

We don't know yet if 4.95k was the local top for ETH. Tom Lee thinks BTC and ETH will reach new ATHs in 6-weeks. I suck at price prediction and am way too bullish which I agree has limited my potential to grow my bags. I guess we'll find out in 6-8 weeks, lol!