I don't actively trade in any stocks in the market (assets, commodities or even these more modern hedges against inflation via crypto). I solely invest in the market via index funds and ETFs.
That said, as a student of economics and accounting, I'm trying to find the value and reason behind this recent move towards BTC, as it appears to be a speculative bubble.
So to answer your question, I'm not trying to be convinced to buy BTC. Nor am I trying to dissuade any of you from using your money as you see fit.
Even institutional traders on Wall Street aren't very convinced by this, but they'll gladly have their retail traders have the common folk buy the fuck out of BTC to inflate the price of it.
"1"
I’ll go with your points being in regards to the life of BtC and not what happens in this current cycle (I have said i believe BTC is going to low 30s, brief dip into the 20s followed by a rally to 55k in this cycle).
I just see it very differently to you and the majority.
The key is forming a timeframe with one’s prediction or forecast. That is a feasibility test in itself. If you say BTC goes to zero tomorrow, is it feasible?
The points you list as negatives in your opinion you equate to risk and a downfall in price. Whereas I see it as moves towards acceptance and adoption with a resulting increase in price. The real world outcome of regulation so far has been correlated to an increase in price. Therefore the position of regulation = downward price pressure has been historically proven incorrect.
To continue to use regulation = downward price pressure as an argument for collapse requires a 180 on the historic results for future results. Sure it can happen but you need a catalyst for that to occur and change the trend.
Did BTC stop at 300?
Did BtC stop at 1,000?
Did BtC stop at 10,000?
Did BtC stop at 20,000?
Did BtC stop at 30,000?
Now let’s go with a catalyst and what it could be. My opinion is that the success of BTC would be the most likely catalyst for it’s failure. My biggest red flag for BTC is the old money isn’t the largest holders, therefore the threat is the largest holders being able to either cash out into fiat or acquire leverage against their holdings and buy those people out.
If we roll with that it means we need to see BTC succeed to a certain level. That level we could identify as nearing a point where large holders can cash out and/or acquire huge leverage against their coins to purchase other assets.
For 2021 we see a base level price of 20k and a volatility spike to 100k. For 2022 we see a base level to 40k stock to flow. We probably need a 100k base price and a 500k volatility spike to really ruffle feathers. Put my finger in the air and I’d suggest 2025 being the catalyst year.
I don’t believe BTC will go to zero but I believe it will be overtaken.