So has this turned into another “it’s all over guys” immediately followed by a “buy now! It’s going to the moon”?
There is generally months in between changes. A bottom from a large down movement generally takes weeks/months. We have not yet hit the bottom, all we got was an initial down and a top for a range.
The end of year was the big opportunity. It didn’t happen and then it was a question whether Jan would provide any bump given it’s a very positive money inflow month. It didn’t happen.
So what is there now?
7% CPI which equates to the 70s 15% all time record
QE which was flowing directly into banks finishes in March
QT starting after that which draws money out
3 x interest rate hikes starting from March
Sending people back to work which combined with the above sucks the life out of consumers
So it’s not primed to do any huge numbers this year.
I’m waiting for March. When rates actually do rise, I think it’ll be a very nervous run to the exits.