Author Topic: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!  (Read 1654681 times)

Thin Lizzy

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #9125 on: January 21, 2023, 07:50:32 AM »
Pretty much all the major asset classes have been flat the past 6 months or longer. Under these conditions, traders have a tendency to front run breaks. This leads to them getting worked by the market makers.

Mayday

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #9126 on: January 21, 2023, 02:55:03 PM »
The range before the FTX crash was 20-25k. Personally, I’d fade the breakout at 25k.


23,100  :D

It’s sitting smack bang on dominance resistance right now. If this rally has legs it will break above and run towards the next 2 higher levels. 29.1k top level perhaps? Market is shorting crypto like a MOFO.

On a structure front, 2023 has no wick below the opening. Only other year that had no wick below was 2011. if price has moved lower already I’d be more comfortable in this rally being a good one but high odds we create new lows this year.

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #9127 on: January 21, 2023, 03:13:16 PM »
Let me explain myself on the ETH, and the possible criticism that this is a betrayal of my BTC maxi beliefs.

 Whilst I believe eventually almost all alts will collapse (and in any case will be restricted from most regulated exchanges due to being unregistered securities thus heavily impacting their value, legitimacy and liquidity), I did buy ETH purely for speculative reasons as I believe it will move upwards along with BTC for a period of time. (Of course the same "logic" could be applied to all "alts", I know). There is a huge risk that ETH will be enforced as a security by the SEC this year (and the same decision followed by many other countries) and that of course is very bullish for BTC as money moves into the only real "crypto commodity". Also, ETH is becoming increasingly centralized (as opposed to BTC which is totally decentralized and where all the safe money is thus moving - and this is big money, from conservative family offices, HNWs, hedge funds, pension funds, etc), and over time the pitch that ETH's "proof of stake" is "better for power consumption" will also be its downfall due to the resulting centralization - after all the whole reason we moved away from fiat was due its centralized control and the risks that brings. ETH is constantly changing at a whim of a few people in control, whereas BTC is consistently constant due to is decentralized nature.

Not sure if that fully makes sense, but I really remain a BTC maxi. I have not even recently looked at how much ETH I have accumulated, but I am guessing i hold around 3% ETH vs all the rest BTC other than a tiny bit of alt shrapnel I bought for fun to support friends etc who were "launching projects".
There is no such thing as true decentralization. The BTC blockchain is under the control of two mining entities.

https://coingeek.com/smoke-miners-myth-of-btc-network-decentralization-exposed/

Bitcoin also changes. There were a few updates, most recently in 2021 with Taproot. And more updates will be in Bitcoin's future.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/12/bitcoin-taproot-upgrade-what-it-means.html#:~:text=Dado%20Ruvic%20%7C%20Reuters-,The%20first%20bitcoin%20upgrade%20in%20four%20years%20has%20just%20been,to%20take%20effect%20in%20November.

POS still required work. Anyone is free to set up a validator, so long as they have 32 ETH in a wallet. As a validator, you have to provide hardware, electricity, and Internet, and the node has to be updated as required. Therefore the validator is doing work to secure the network. That flies in the face of the Howey test.

What work is Michael Saylor doing to secure the Bitcoin network? All he did was buy BTC. Why did he do that? Because he expects the value to go up and therefore he can profit off the work of "others" - the miners and other investors driving up the price. See you can make an argument from many sides. One could argue that Bitcoin satisfies the Howey test for those that are not putting any work in to secure the BTC network. And the same goes for Ethereum, Cardano etc. ETH was also deemed to not be a security by Hinman.

Now we all know governments are corrupt. First of all, one should realize the SEC is not there to really protect investors. Their job is to maintain the status of the powers that be. So it would not surprise me if they try to claim in the future that Ethereum is a security. But they would have to prove it. Perhaps Ethereum should lower the threshold for solo staking and get many more validators on board to completely demolish any arguments of centralization.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-cryptocurrencies-ether/u-s-sec-official-says-ether-not-a-security-price-surges-idUSKBN1JA30Q

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #9128 on: January 21, 2023, 11:20:31 PM »
There is no such thing as true decentralization. The BTC blockchain is under the control of two mining entities.

https://coingeek.com/smoke-miners-myth-of-btc-network-decentralization-exposed/

Bitcoin also changes. There were a few updates, most recently in 2021 with Taproot. And more updates will be in Bitcoin's future.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/12/bitcoin-taproot-upgrade-what-it-means.html#:~:text=Dado%20Ruvic%20%7C%20Reuters-,The%20first%20bitcoin%20upgrade%20in%20four%20years%20has%20just%20been,to%20take%20effect%20in%20November.

POS still required work. Anyone is free to set up a validator, so long as they have 32 ETH in a wallet. As a validator, you have to provide hardware, electricity, and Internet, and the node has to be updated as required. Therefore the validator is doing work to secure the network. That flies in the face of the Howey test.

What work is Michael Saylor doing to secure the Bitcoin network? All he did was buy BTC. Why did he do that? Because he expects the value to go up and therefore he can profit off the work of "others" - the miners and other investors driving up the price. See you can make an argument from many sides. One could argue that Bitcoin satisfies the Howey test for those that are not putting any work in to secure the BTC network. And the same goes for Ethereum, Cardano etc. ETH was also deemed to not be a security by Hinman.

Now we all know governments are corrupt. First of all, one should realize the SEC is not there to really protect investors. Their job is to maintain the status of the powers that be. So it would not surprise me if they try to claim in the future that Ethereum is a security. But they would have to prove it. Perhaps Ethereum should lower the threshold for solo staking and get many more validators on board to completely demolish any arguments of centralization.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-cryptocurrencies-ether/u-s-sec-official-says-ether-not-a-security-price-surges-idUSKBN1JA30Q

Gib gave up his btc maxi status when he bought into ETH.

Eth is a long con and theoretically broken from the  beginning trying to pack way to much functionality into a layer one protocol.
BTC is the internet of money. So if you think about that being layer one the lightning network layer two then you'll see other layers develop ontop of it and that's how protocols and distributed network architecture  actually work. The whole btc is old tech is garbage touted by conmen  looking to cash in on the supposed next btc2.0. The chance to kill btc was 2011-2012 maybe those early days with something  new. Now I would assign less than 2% chance of anything ever dethroning the king.

Btc will and is going after everything, it will not be a light switch moment where flick off to on and everything is based  off btc settlement layer. As much as I'd like that, it's a process which takes time and btc isn't ready....yet. I'd say next 10-20 years.

All POS networks are doomed from the start, it's subject to politics its subject to controls and just centralises over  time (long con). Its basically just replicating fiat  the existing system.

Obsidian you know how difficult staking without a centralised entity can be, hence  you using coinbase.  99% are full retard and or lazy when it comes to money.

That's not to say Eth isn't going to outperform btc for near term future and be around for awhile. I'm not for an extra 60% on my money in a centralised coin when it's already up 300x in something that's truly decentralized.



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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #9129 on: January 22, 2023, 06:23:09 AM »

Eth is a long con and theoretically broken from the  beginning trying to pack way to much functionality into a layer one protocol.
BTC is the internet of money. So if you think about that being layer one the lightning network layer two then you'll see other layers develop ontop of it and that's how protocols and distributed network architecture  actually work.

It must have been a long time since you've looked at Eth. It had working layer 2 rollups long before lighting network came along on Bitcoin. Once EVM compatible (Ethereum-equivalent allowing smart contracts) layer 2s make it to market then current rollups can work as layer 3 and the doors open for everyone.

As far as "protocols and distributed network architecture" goes ethereum is ahead of everyone in the space, both in terms of progress and people/projects involved.


gib

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #9130 on: January 22, 2023, 06:15:41 PM »
Gib gave up his btc maxi status when he bought into ETH.

Eth is a long con and theoretically broken from the  beginning trying to pack way to much functionality into a layer one protocol.
BTC is the internet of money. So if you think about that being layer one the lightning network layer two then you'll see other layers develop ontop of it and that's how protocols and distributed network architecture  actually work. The whole btc is old tech is garbage touted by conmen  looking to cash in on the supposed next btc2.0. The chance to kill btc was 2011-2012 maybe those early days with something  new. Now I would assign less than 2% chance of anything ever dethroning the king.

Btc will and is going after everything, it will not be a light switch moment where flick off to on and everything is based  off btc settlement layer. As much as I'd like that, it's a process which takes time and btc isn't ready....yet. I'd say next 10-20 years.

All POS networks are doomed from the start, it's subject to politics its subject to controls and just centralises over  time (long con). Its basically just replicating fiat  the existing system.

Obsidian you know how difficult staking without a centralised entity can be, hence  you using coinbase.  99% are full retard and or lazy when it comes to money.

That's not to say Eth isn't going to outperform btc for near term future and be around for awhile. I'm not for an extra 60% on my money in a centralized coin when it's already up 300x in something that's truly decentralized.

Dude, I fully agree with everything you have said here. ETH will inevitably fail, for various fundamental reasons, including those you have mentioned - how long that will take, who knows. Further there is real regulatory risk on the horizon with ETH, due to its history of its founders issuing tokens to themselves, which can never be undone or reversed. We are seeing this with Ripple also. Eth may very well be enforced as a security this year (and as such would be an illegal unregistered security), and that in turn will require all regulated exchanges to cease allowing it to be traded, of course leading even more inflow into BTC as "crypto investors" realize the implications.

Eth was really, in many wats, essentially an affinity scam on Bitcoin - maybe even well intentioned. What needs to happen, and I believe will happen, is that we all come to collectively agree and undersand that BTC is the global base layer of value. And we then build on top of that for more efficient transfers, smart contracts, defi etc, all of which was as envisaged by Satoshi. Creating a whole separate, centralized, system, where the technology itself is traded as a store of value as a competing base layer, is really is a perversion of all that Bitcoin stands for.

I really only bought a little ETH as I think its possible that in the short term it will rise in value with BTC, maybe even at a sharper % gain due to lower market cap and due to misunderstanding that it is a "better technology". On numerous occasions I have met relatively intelligent people, new to this space, who in a well meaning manner ask you "Oh, but what about Eth? It can do smart contracts and all that. Now Eth really is quite interesting technology. And its more energy efficient". It really takes time for people to fully understand, and comprehend, at a fundamental principles level, and at a philosophical and economic level, the importance of the distinction between Bitcoin and all other alts. But please be assured, I am a very much a BTC maximalist (at least in so far as knowing that BTC is the ultimate, original, and most perfect form of global digital store of value). I have not betrayed the cause!

Mayday

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #9131 on: January 24, 2023, 01:54:29 AM »
Mining related, I have taken positions in metals and miners.

we are in a tightening phase however…… it appears to me too many people are now ‘pro’ level CPI analysts.

gib

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #9132 on: January 24, 2023, 04:25:46 AM »
Mining related, I have taken positions in metals and miners.

we are in a tightening phase however…… it appears to me too many people are now ‘pro’ level CPI analysts.

Regarding metals, I am of the view that a significant chunk of Bitcoiners will form part of a new generation who appreciate and desire gold (and vice versa). For my, it was my interest in Bitcoin which actually turned me on to gold. Now I own both, although substantially more Bitcoin than gold.

Flexacon

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #9133 on: January 24, 2023, 03:22:29 PM »
Mining related, I have taken positions in metals and miners.

we are in a tightening phase however…… it appears to me too many people are now ‘pro’ level CPI analysts.

Anything with Lithium exposure? Been looking to get involved, but don't know if it's too late now.

I hold some physical gold and used to be involved in spot silver. Price is heavily manipulated though, but it does benefit occasionally from a short squeeze.

Did you pick up any bitcoin mining stocks?  :D I'm gonna pick up £10k of $Mara in the morning just for bants

gib

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #9134 on: January 24, 2023, 09:40:56 PM »
Anything with Lithium exposure? Been looking to get involved, but don't know if it's too late now.

I hold some physical gold and used to be involved in spot silver. Price is heavily manipulated though, but it does benefit occasionally from a short squeeze.

Did you pick up any bitcoin mining stocks?  :D I'm gonna pick up £10k of $Mara in the morning just for bants

Lithium is interesting. I have a friend who runs a metals fund. He is very bullish on Lithium. The obvious question of course is how much future demand is already priced in.

I think a some point we may see a surge in demand for real, physical gold. Not paper gold. And when that happens, if all fake paper gold gets squeezed out (like with fake BTC FTX) it could lead to huge demand for the real thing.

For BTC miners, be careful, but yes right now they could be a good buy. They usually trade at a multiple to BTC (both on the upside and the downside) kind of like a leveraged bet on BTC (much like gold with gold miners).

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #9135 on: January 25, 2023, 04:02:36 AM »
Anything with Lithium exposure? Been looking to get involved, but don't know if it's too late now.

I hold some physical gold and used to be involved in spot silver. Price is heavily manipulated though, but it does benefit occasionally from a short squeeze.

Did you pick up any bitcoin mining stocks?  :D I'm gonna pick up £10k of $Mara in the morning just for bants

Positioning more for silver right now as Silver hasn’t squeezed yet. When it goes, it’ll tap $60 without much drama. Right now feels similar to 2010-11 when I did a play in silver.

For lithium and energy i Think the market goes up short term. I think the market interprets CPI and Fed actions incorrectly and they end up ‘front running’ by mistake which triggers FOMO this year.

Notice how everyone is now a Pro on CPI, Fed rates and ‘pivoting’?. Seriously I have had some people in my estate with the IQ of a shovel tell me about rates right now and CPI. Fkn 😂 so one one hand we have Uber bearish collapse people shorting the market and on the other we have sidelined cashed up people looking to 100x front run the Fed pivot.

We know we need a deflationary event to trigger inflationary policy. It could very well be this rally/FOMO ramps shit to spastic levels which then blow up and crash, ironically creating the deflationary event to allow the true inflationary response to occur.  99% are calling for a recession worse than the GFC….. this suggests something really fucked up is going to happen this year so I reckon a spastic rally followed by a crash nukes 99% lol

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #9136 on: January 25, 2023, 02:51:44 PM »
DXY parabolic moves all go back to baseline before changing directions.

This would mean next stop for the DXY is the 80s.

Fed rates next week, a move of 0.25% will likely be perceived by the market as the start of a pivot.

Depending how you draw your trend lines on the S&P this week is a breakout, if the above is true then next week should confirm the breakout for S&P.


Money supply went -1.3% 22 vs 21. Money supply going backwards generally means fucking horrific things ahead. If by some chance the market rallies it will be short lived as the money supply can only go negative for a very short period before it hits everything. It’s like getting a massage and then being stabbed.

Flexacon

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #9137 on: January 25, 2023, 09:26:39 PM »

For BTC miners, be careful, but yes right now they could be a good buy. They usually trade at a multiple to BTC (both on the upside and the downside) kind of like a leveraged bet on BTC (much like gold with gold miners).

Miners, even the least efficient ones are all in profit at around $22.5k. If contagion has unwound to the point of no more forced selling then this price can hopefully be defended. Miners finally get some much needed breathing room. Feels like a good time to take a small amount of risk there. Will keep adding to my position.

Positioning more for silver right now as Silver hasn’t squeezed yet. When it goes, it’ll tap $60 without much drama. Right now feels similar to 2010-11 when I did a play in silver.

For lithium and energy i Think the market goes up short term. I think the market interprets CPI and Fed actions incorrectly and they end up ‘front running’ by mistake which triggers FOMO this year.

Notice how everyone is now a Pro on CPI, Fed rates and ‘pivoting’?. Seriously I have had some people in my estate with the IQ of a shovel tell me about rates right now and CPI. Fkn 😂 so one one hand we have Uber bearish collapse people shorting the market and on the other we have sidelined cashed up people looking to 100x front run the Fed pivot.

We know we need a deflationary event to trigger inflationary policy. It could very well be this rally/FOMO ramps shit to spastic levels which then blow up and crash, ironically creating the deflationary event to allow the true inflationary response to occur.  99% are calling for a recession worse than the GFC….. this suggests something really fucked up is going to happen this year so I reckon a spastic rally followed by a crash nukes 99% lol

I think Bulls and Bears will both end up getting flattened.

Bears get wiped out by fatigue, mini rallies and a side ways market that does nothing. A pivot is eventually announced, bulls jump in and go long with everything they've got and that's when the market crashes. Everyone feels the pain. Bears miss the crash as they have already tapped out and bulls went in too early.

Hopefully crypto FOMO doesn't get me and I'll be there waiting in cash to take advantage.

obsidian

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #9138 on: January 26, 2023, 03:49:56 AM »
Dude, I fully agree with everything you have said here. ETH will inevitably fail, for various fundamental reasons, including those you have mentioned - how long that will take, who knows. Further there is real regulatory risk on the horizon with ETH, due to its history of its founders issuing tokens to themselves, which can never be undone or reversed. We are seeing this with Ripple also. Eth may very well be enforced as a security this year (and as such would be an illegal unregistered security), and that in turn will require all regulated exchanges to cease allowing it to be traded, of course leading even more inflow into BTC as "crypto investors" realize the implications.

Eth was really, in many wats, essentially an affinity scam on Bitcoin - maybe even well intentioned. What needs to happen, and I believe will happen, is that we all come to collectively agree and undersand that BTC is the global base layer of value. And we then build on top of that for more efficient transfers, smart contracts, defi etc, all of which was as envisaged by Satoshi. Creating a whole separate, centralized, system, where the technology itself is traded as a store of value as a competing base layer, is really is a perversion of all that Bitcoin stands for.

I really only bought a little ETH as I think its possible that in the short term it will rise in value with BTC, maybe even at a sharper % gain due to lower market cap and due to misunderstanding that it is a "better technology". On numerous occasions I have met relatively intelligent people, new to this space, who in a well meaning manner ask you "Oh, but what about Eth? It can do smart contracts and all that. Now Eth really is quite interesting technology. And its more energy efficient". It really takes time for people to fully understand, and comprehend, at a fundamental principles level, and at a philosophical and economic level, the importance of the distinction between Bitcoin and all other alts. But please be assured, I am a very much a BTC maximalist (at least in so far as knowing that BTC is the ultimate, original, and most perfect form of global digital store of value). I have not betrayed the cause!
So now BTC wants to copy ETH with smart contracts - lmao! The Ethereum developers are way ahead of Bitcoin developers. They are the ones that invented smart contracts. Bitcoin is trying to catch up. And if Bitcoin is a store of value why on earth would anyone want to use it for any transactions? Just buy, hold and sell when the price is sky high!?

There are many many more developers working on Ethereum compared to Bitcoin. It's not even close.

Bitcoin’s popularity with developers shrunk last year while Ethereum’s flourished. Here’s what that means for investors
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/18/developers-soured-on-bitcoin-over-the-last-year-heres-why-that-matters.html

There's too much utility for blockchains in the future in the world for one blockchain to satisfy all demands. That's just delusional thinking. I don't see only BTC thriving. And I do see ETH providing more yields in the long run.

ETH staking allows your ETH supply to grow and yet the inflation rate now is a lot lower than Bitcoin's inflation rate. Any entity that provides interest on Bitcoin holdings is speculating with the funds to deliver the interest. And that's a recipe for disaster. But the Ethereum interest is built into the Proof of Stake mechanism. I can stake ETH and expect the ETH balance to grow over time, but not at a crazy inflation rate.

I also see a problem with Bitcoin once most BTC has been mined. Why would anyone secure the network without getting much BTC in return? Who's going to pay the fees of the miners that are supposed to secure the network and prevent a 51% attack? How high would the fees have to be to keep these miners interested? I would not be surprised if Bitcoin switches to a POS system at some point in the future.


obsidian

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #9139 on: January 26, 2023, 03:57:47 AM »
Gib gave up his btc maxi status when he bought into ETH.

Eth is a long con and theoretically broken from the  beginning trying to pack way to much functionality into a layer one protocol.
BTC is the internet of money. So if you think about that being layer one the lightning network layer two then you'll see other layers develop ontop of it and that's how protocols and distributed network architecture  actually work.
You claim Ethereum developers tried to build too much functionality in the layer 1 network which resulted in layer 2 solutions and at the same time you tout the layer 2 lightning network of Bitcoin - lmao! That's the same thing then. How is it any different?

And exactly how is Ethereum a long con? Why don't you go into more detail?

I see a major structural problem in Bitcoin's future. Why would miners stay to secure the Bitcoin network after most BTC has been mined? Yeah, I know that could be decades from now. Some say 2050 and others past 2100. However, the amount of BTC left to miners will steadily decrease. At some point, it will impact how many miners stick around to secure the network.

gib

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #9140 on: January 27, 2023, 06:19:33 PM »
You claim Ethereum developers tried to build too much functionality in the layer 1 network which resulted in layer 2 solutions and at the same time you tout the layer 2 lightning network of Bitcoin - lmao! That's the same thing then. How is it any different?

And exactly how is Ethereum a long con? Why don't you go into more detail?

I see a major structural problem in Bitcoin's future. Why would miners stay to secure the Bitcoin network after most BTC has been mined? Yeah, I know that could be decades from now. Some say 2050 and others past 2100. However, the amount of BTC left to miners will steadily decrease. At some point, it will impact how many miners stick around to secure the network.

Satoshi and the early contributors always envisaged Bitcoin as a rock solid layer 1 foundation of money, with 2nd (and 3rd)  layers of functionality built on top. A great example of this will be the Lightening Network, but of course we will also will see layers which support smart contracts, defi, and other uses carefully and thoughtfully built on BTC. The key is that Bitcoin is the rock solid core at all of this representing perfect global money.

Now if you compare that to ETH, you wiil see that ETH has become a centralized, kind of Frankenstein project, continuously modified, centralized and distorted, and then mixing up and bolting on a whole bunch of "technology features" into a coin which itself is used by some as a tradable store of value. Its an absolute mess, and all this history with Eth cannot be undone. Indeed, it will only get worse.

As for what happens "when all the Bitcoin run out", this has been asked (and answered) so many times (as has a the question of "but there are only 21 million coins, so how can they be subdivided so that it can be a global currency). A simple google search answers both (to the extent it is not already obvious).

Basically, by the time we reach the mythical "last coin", the total global use and volume will be such that transaction fees are more than sufficient to incent miners to switch over. The transaction fees which now make up less than 10% of the existing revenue for miners will increase over time. And that will more than compensate for the loss of block rewards on the mining side. Its a beautiful thing, as again the economic incentive (or put more simply, self motivated greed) supports and secures the entire network, with there being a continued and sustainable push to arbitrage and squeeze out every remaining micro-Satoshi from the supporting BTC transactions, which in turn continues to support the network. We will of course also see Bitcoin holders, Governments, Institutions, Individuals, also help protect the next work out of self motivation to preserve the security of their Sats.

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #9141 on: January 27, 2023, 09:08:11 PM »
Satoshi and the early contributors always envisaged Bitcoin as a rock solid layer 1 foundation of money, with 2nd (and 3rd)  layers of functionality built on top. A great example of this will be the Lightening Network, but of course we will also will see layers which support smart contracts, defi, and other uses carefully and thoughtfully built on BTC. The key is that Bitcoin is the rock solid core at all of this representing perfect global money.

Now if you compare that to ETH, you wiil see that ETH has become a centralized, kind of Frankenstein project, continuously modified, centralized and distorted, and then mixing up and bolting on a whole bunch of "technology features" into a coin which itself is used by some as a tradable store of value. Its an absolute mess, and all this history with Eth cannot be undone. Indeed, it will only get worse.

As for what happens "when all the Bitcoin run out", this has been asked (and answered) so many times (as has a the question of "but there are only 21 million coins, so how can they be subdivided so that it can be a global currency). A simple google search answers both (to the extent it is not already obvious).

Basically, by the time we reach the mythical "last coin", the total global use and volume will be such that transaction fees are more than sufficient to incent miners to switch over. The transaction fees which now make up less than 10% of the existing revenue for miners will increase over time. And that will more than compensate for the loss of block rewards on the mining side. Its a beautiful thing, as again the economic incentive (or put more simply, self motivated greed) supports and secures the entire network, with there being a continued and sustainable push to arbitrage and squeeze out every remaining micro-Satoshi from the supporting BTC transactions, which in turn continues to support the network. We will of course also see Bitcoin holders, Governments, Institutions, Individuals, also help protect the next work out of self motivation to preserve the security of their Sats.
All these functionalities built on top of Bitcoin that you describe mean development and change. Bitcoin is software and a human creation like everything else. Yes, Ethereum is continuously modified and the fact that the developers have been able to keep it all together without major issues is amazing. But Bitcoin will also have to change to compete with Ethereum. The tap root Bitcoin update introduced smart contracts. Bitcoin also changes and will continue to change. It's a lie saying it never changes. And since when is change a bad thing?!

However, Bitcoin can't do smart contracts as effectively as Ethereum can even with all these changes. And Ethereum has a lot more developers working on it. You need developers to make it happen - even Bitcoin needs developers.

Bitcoin is centralized because two pool miners dominate the hash rate.

The centralization of Bitcoin: Behind the two mining pools controlling 51% of the global hash rate

Only two pools were responsible for mining more than half of Bitcoin's blocks in the second half of December. We looked at Foundry and Antpool to see what's behind the mining behemoths and is Bitcoin really as centralized as it looks.

While most of the market focuses on Bitcoin’s price volatility, a much bigger problem seems to go unnoticed.

The centralization of Ethereum has been one of the hottest topics in the crypto industry since the network’s switch to Proof-of-Stake, with many critics warning about the dangers of such a high market cap cryptocurrency relying on only a handful of centralized validators.

Since the coveted mining ban in China, the centralization of the Bitcoin network mostly disappeared from mainstream discussions and became the focus of a niche group in the mining sphere.

However, Bitcoin’s centralization is a problem that concerns the entire market, especially now when only two mining pools produce the majority of its blocks.

CryptoSlate looked at Bitcoin’s global hash rate distribution and found that more than half of it came from Foundry USA and Antpool.

The two pools mined over a quarter of Bitcoin blocks in the past ten days each. Since mid-December, Foundry USA mined 357 blocks, while Antpool mined 325. Foundry’s block production accounted for 26.98% of the network, while Antpool was responsible for just under 24.5% of the total block production.

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #9142 on: January 27, 2023, 11:39:58 PM »
That article mis-describes what a mining pool actually is. You need to be careful not to confuse or obfuscate concepts without thinking it though a little deeper.

A mining pool consists of a large number of individual miners, who mine independently, but combine to share blocks when discovered (giving more consistent and predicable flow of income). This does not mean an entire pool could be coerced into a 51% attack. Indeed it would be virtually impossible given how many miners are in a typical pool of miners, and secondly because there would be no financial incentive to do so (indeed quite contrary to any financial incentive) to do so any individual miner. This is part of the beauty of the proof of work model. Every aspect of the ecosystem is incentivized through self interest, to benefit the strength of the network. So yes, a pool itself is "centralized" to the extent the share block rewards, but they consist of thousands of decentralized miners who act independently and in self interest. So, what you need to do is look at the power of each individual miner, and then bare in mind that new minders as constantly coming along, either to mine alone, or joining a pool. Think of a pool really simply as shared payments.

I'll give you a simple example. Lets say we have 9000 orange growers in the US. 4000 of those decide to join an producers collective - ie they all sell to a single aggregator who in turn gives a guaranteed price and is a consistent buyer. Does that mean that if the aggregator tried to order all 4000 producers to destroy their crops, that each independent grower would do that? Of course not. Why? Well because even though the "pool" is a centralized entity, it consists of many decentralized players. Indeed any smart individual grower would immediately would know that their oranges immediately become more valuable if others were to disappear. Classic economic game theory.

Mining pools actually incentivize more miners to enter the mining business, as they can get a consistent and immediate return on capital, and then grow without large outlay, due to the predicable and immediate shared income. As a result, they are a positive force to the strength on the network.

The second (and 3rd layer) technologies are built on top of Bitcoin, not into Bitcoin itself (but yes, it is correct that Bitcoin can be modified to be optimized for such 2nd layer solutions). This is core to the ethos and tenants of BTC. BTC, as open source code can be modified (and indeed is regularly tweaked). This is indeed because bitcoin is decentralized - it has no centralized leadership (unlike ETH, which can essentially be "selfishly" be changed to the benefit of those with larger stakes - which of course was the whole problem with fiat currencies BTC was designed to defend against, where some small minority in the financial system are advantaged over many others). Proof of stake on the other hand, is a perversion of the fundamental concept of a decentralized currency. All are not equal under ETH, On the other hand, all stakeholders in the BTC ecosystem are incentivized to ensure that any upgrades to the network are backward-compatible and its ultimately up to the community as a whole to approve of any so called "consensus changes" (the taproot upgrade being one such example). And any change to the BTC code inures the benefit of all Bitcoin holders in a proportionate and equal manner.

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #9143 on: January 28, 2023, 03:29:12 AM »
Miners, even the least efficient ones are all in profit at around $22.5k. If contagion has unwound to the point of no more forced selling then this price can hopefully be defended. Miners finally get some much needed breathing room. Feels like a good time to take a small amount of risk there. Will keep adding to my position.

I think Bulls and Bears will both end up getting flattened.

Bears get wiped out by fatigue, mini rallies and a side ways market that does nothing. A pivot is eventually announced, bulls jump in and go long with everything they've got and that's when the market crashes. Everyone feels the pain. Bears miss the crash as they have already tapped out and bulls went in too early.

Hopefully crypto FOMO doesn't get me and I'll be there waiting in cash to take advantage.

When the squeezes come, they come hard (no homo)

That first jump was on the earnings report. The next day it went up another 11%. You don’t see that often. Typically, the stock goes flat after a big earnings jump.


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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #9144 on: January 28, 2023, 04:55:26 AM »
The Tesla stock special. Heavily traded and considered cult like by some.

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #9145 on: January 28, 2023, 05:02:37 AM »
The Tesla stock special. Heavily traded and considered cult like by some.

Here’s what happens when you pan out. Down 50% from the 1 year high:

From a dollars traded standpoint, IMO, the most manipulated stock of all time.

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #9146 on: January 28, 2023, 11:08:57 PM »
You claim Ethereum developers tried to build too much functionality in the layer 1 network which resulted in layer 2 solutions and at the same time you tout the layer 2 lightning network of Bitcoin - lmao! That's the same thing then. How is it any different?

And exactly how is Ethereum a long con? Why don't you go into more detail?

I see a major structural problem in Bitcoin's future. Why would miners stay to secure the Bitcoin network after most BTC has been mined? Yeah, I know that could be decades from now. Some say 2050 and others past 2100. However, the amount of BTC left to miners will steadily decrease. At some point, it will impact how many miners stick around to secure the network.

Ethereum has proven completely centrlalized now. By building smart contracts into the base layer you  have to expand the amount of space and the amount of space that you have. To expand means as the network expands the only nodes that can verify the network have to run so high super compute and that you couldn't actually have small nodes around the network, so you have to centralize what the most important nodes. So you can have as many horse shit rollups as you want, doesnt change the fact ethereum sacraficed decentrilization at the base layer.
Why would you use a high cost blockchain, what economic rationale? Because you think it's going to make you more money . It's the same model as as we have in the fiat system it's exactly the same model that the rich get richer. The richer inside that system and they have to centralize more and more and as they centralize more and more they have to cut off certain things from other people you have to protect the core.
That centralization always produces inferior results over the long term (long con). In the short term people think oh wow this is growing and they don't actually understand a network effect that get co-opted by money.
Money dies when centralized and because we never had a system that was decentralized and secure at the base we always relied on system that we trusted who was in power.

Perfect example base layer or TCP was invented in the late 60s by DARPA and if the base layer failed everything fails we still use that that system today at the base.
The base layer has to be hardened it has to be attacked it has to be all of these things. The base layer of Bitcoin is hardening over time and all of these attacks crystallized it's uncompromising ability on bitcoin.
People talk about Bitcoin Maxis, its is their conviction being uncompromised on five to seven transactions we will not let block size expand because it ruins the decentralization security and to try to change that it's impossible because there's a swarm of all these nodes that would never accept a change . There was the the whole 'block wars' over this few years back.
For a long time that creates an attack vector for all of these other shitcoins to say it's old tech .

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #9147 on: January 29, 2023, 02:33:49 AM »
When the squeezes come, they come hard (no homo)

That first jump was on the earnings report. The next day it went up another 11%. You don’t see that often. Typically, the stock goes flat after a big earnings jump.

Probably shorts closing out.

The Tesla stock special. Heavily traded and considered cult like by some.

Yeah it's not that unusual for Tesla in this bear market. This is the 3rd 50% plus bounce.

Surely everything is setting up for a monster bull trap  ???

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #9148 on: January 29, 2023, 06:26:02 AM »
I haven't read this thread in ages and won't be going back to read dozens of pages that are irrelevant to the market now.

So can someone post the TL;DR info.

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #9149 on: January 29, 2023, 06:46:41 AM »
I haven't read this thread in ages and won't be going back to read dozens of pages that are irrelevant to the market now.

So can someone post the TL;DR info.

Allow me, waif. 

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