According to my research, it is correct that earners at or below the median saw weekly wage gains of 4.6% over the past year. Earners at or below the 25% percentile - meaning the poorest quarter of workers – had a weekly pay increase of 5.5% according to Bureau of Labor Statistics records.
These earners primarily work in the service sector with weekly earnings of ($920 for men and $730 for women) which is well above the poverty level, which is $15,960 for an individual and $33,000 for a family of four in 2026.
U.S. inflation in 2026 peaked at 4.2% in May before cooling down to 3.5% in June. So it appears they are somewhat “keeping their heads above water,” which is good news.