Inflation now at 9.1% in the USA

[Megalodon]

Reminiscent of this:

[Primemuscle]

Biden/Harris

You got it!

[Dave D]

If your investments were properly diversified you have only given back at most the previous 12 months market gains.

I posted numerous times to use proper asset allocation.  If you did not you made a mistake.

The stockmarket has outperformed inflation consistently over time.

Iron where did you post this info?

And how does that help with food and gas prices?

[Princess L]

I agree.

I am an idiot.

FIXED

[Coach is Back!]

I wasn't apologizing.

When did I say either Socialism or Marxism works? Hmm, don't remember that.

(This is my being civil reply, the other one was two words and vulgar).

You defend Biden at every turn just like now. If you defend it you support it.

[OAK]

FIXED

Gotta LOVE the Mods on this forum.

 

[Primemuscle]

You defend Biden at every turn just like now. If you defend it you support it.

So let me see if I have this right. You think my posting a list of years when inflation has been as high or higher in the U.S. than it is currently defends Biden? How's that?

[Coach is Back!]

So let me see if I have this right. You think my posting a list of years when inflation has been as high or higher in the U.S. than it is currently defends Biden? How's that?

No…this goes back as far when Biden was campaigning right up to now.

[Mayday]

Consumer Price Index (CPI) clocked in at 9.1%.

Let's see the carnage this will bring to the stock and crypto markets. Also, get ready folks as this means the Federal Reserve will have to continue to increase their Federal Reserve Rates and Moody's will likely soon have to announce that we are officially in a recession given that Q1/Q2 GDP were negative.

"1"

I wonder if Biden’s tweet is a signal for a CPI weight change?

I had Q2 recession then Q4 fiscal stimmy and 2023-24 balls to the wall stimmy. I thought CPI would have come down in Q3 and a sell off would be done already. Arguably the markets are already at a 25%-30% draw down which is pandemic level.

yet we have CPI still going up, rates going up but nothing is breaking. I’m starting to think time is running out and maybe they revise the CPI formula and just say ‘fuck it’ and start fiscal over the top while leaving rates high. That at least saves the property market while keeping it less hot.

Given the Fed should be pivoting rather than hiking it’s like a full YOLO into the Death Star at this point. . 

[Primemuscle]

If your investments were properly diversified you have only given back at most the previous 12 months market gains.

I posted numerous times to use proper asset allocation.  If you did not you made a mistake.

The stockmarket has outperformed inflation consistently over time.

Your advisement regarding diversified investments is great for someone who has the funds and ability gamble on the stock market.  Unfortunately, not everyone has the assets it takes to make a noticeable difference. Those of us whose income is from a PERS annuity have no say over how our money is invested, even those of us who left money in a variable account when they retired.

My major investment is in real estate, and I live in it. Otherwise, I have a couple of TSAs, which I am required by the Feds to drawdown each year.

Last time I checked this pile was worth $780,000 which may seem like a lot to some folks... well, not Getbiggers, all of whom live in multimillion dollar McMansions. LOL! Anyway, I need to live somewhere, so it might as well be here where my expenses are nothing as compared to rents in this neck of the woods. Plus I am comfortable here and life’s short, specially for folks my age.

[OneMoreRep]

I wonder if Biden’s tweet is a signal for a CPI weight change?

I had Q2 recession then Q4 fiscal stimmy and 2023-24 balls to the wall stimmy. I thought CPI would have come down in Q3 and a sell off would be done already. Arguably the markets are already at a 25%-30% draw down which is pandemic level.

yet we have CPI still going up, rates going up but nothing is breaking. I’m starting to think time is running out and maybe they revise the CPI formula and just say ‘fuck it’ and start fiscal over the top while leaving rates high. That at least saves the property market while keeping it less hot.

Given the Fed should be pivoting rather than hiking it’s like a full YOLO into the Death Star at this point. .

It doesn't make sense.

We have CPI continuously increasing (inflation), we have the FED increasing rates and we have clear technical signs of recession (-Q1/Q2), yet nothing is taking a severe hit. Yes, the market has been floating in red, but nothing truly crazy enough to represent what's obviously right in front of us.

Part of me wonders whether it has to do with the false unemployment rates or whether institutional traders are betting that somehow a miracle will happen at the 11th hour. I just don't see it.

I've been bracing for a massive hit, but no clear sign of that massive iceberg that will sink the titanic. Maybe now once the FED is forced to go up in rates once more, maybe then the market will start to show true signs of tear, but for now, the markets are acting strange. It's almost as if they are being artificially kept on life support.

"1"

[Walter Sobchak]

It doesn't make sense.

We have CPI continuously increasing (inflation), we have the FED increasing rates and we have clear technical signs of recession (-Q1/Q2), yet nothing is taking a severe hit. Yes, the market has been floating in red, but nothing truly crazy enough to represent what's obviously right in front of us.

Part of me wonders whether it has to do with the false unemployment rates or whether institutional traders are betting that somehow a miracle will happen at the 11th hour. I just don't see it.

I've been bracing for a massive hit, but no clear sign of that massive iceberg that will sink the titanic. Maybe now once the FED is forced to go up in rates once more, maybe then the market will start to show true signs of tear, but for now, the markets are acting strange. It's almost as if they are being artificially kept on life support.

"1"

Look at the tsunami approaching the housing market.

Month to month permits/starts versus home sales. The large home builders typically continue to build at least 6-8 months into the beginning of a housing crash as they wind down their crews. This causes an inventory glut, then the cost cutting begins. Look at the number of sale cancellations this past month, going by memory it might have been 60,000 nationwide.

It’s there, it’s coming, but it is also a tremendous opportunity to make money if you play it right.

[OneMoreRep]

Look at the tsunami approaching the housing market.

Month to month permits/starts versus home sales. The large home builders typically continue to build at least 6-8 months into the beginning of a housing crash as they wind down their crews. This causes an inventory glut, then the cost cutting begins. Look at the number of sale cancellations this past month, going by memory it might have been 600,000 nationwide.

It’s there, it’s coming, but it is also a tremendous opportunity to make money if you play it right.

I mean, it makes sense that the real estate market is bound to go bust. With just the FED increasing rates (as they must) to reel in inflation, things are bound to get worse. Below is a sample of present day mortgage rates and today's CPI will definitely push the FED to increase rates. Some are betting that the FED will increases FED rates by 1%. That's steep, as it would be hard as fuck for many people to afford a mortgage, standard loan or even margin for stocks. It's going to get hard from a simple home loan perspective, let alone the effects of inflation on supply costs for builders.



"1"

[Mayday]

It doesn't make sense.

We have CPI continuously increasing (inflation), we have the FED increasing rates and we have clear technical signs of recession (-Q1/Q2), yet nothing is taking a severe hit. Yes, the market has been floating in red, but nothing truly crazy enough to represent what's obviously right in front of us.

Part of me wonders whether it has to do with the false unemployment rates or whether institutional traders are betting that somehow a miracle will happen at the 11th hour. I just don't see it.

I've been bracing for a massive hit, but no clear sign of that massive iceberg that will sink the titanic. Maybe now once the FED is forced to go up in rates once more, maybe then the market will start to show true signs of tear, but for now, the markets are acting strange. It's almost as if they are being artificially kept on life support.

"1"

Well actually does make sense but it’s more that it wasn’t supposed to look like this.


There are 2 major drivers for this. The first is the largest monetary printing in our lifetime. The second is the huge reduction of labour participation rate as boomers retire and continue to retire.

The money printing was essentially shoving 6yrs of cash into the economy in 6 months. It’s now 2yrs later and we are still seeing price spikes as the money works it’s way through. That makes sense.

The unemployment rate is full employment. It’s real. Wages are ripping up and people are still walking from job to job when they feel like it. We are 99% in recession (official figure to be posted by the Fed) and Even with all the rate rises and recession jobs grew in June lol. Now THAT we definitely wouldn’t expect to see yet we did.

Perhaps it’s simply nothing cracks and we just go again? Or maybe it’s a re-test of the bottom and we go again, we don’t set lower lows. I just look at the inbound food issues in Q4 and along with elections the stimmy is highly probably to begin in the coming months. This doesn’t leave much time for a major market sell off.

I am acting on a 5yr inflationary cycle therefore I assume we must go again and keep the gas on. I don’t think property has any sort of collapse, I think it has a mild cool off and then goes again catching the ‘crash’ people out.

[GigantorX]

One thing to consider, CPI is highly massaged it's meant to keep the printed inflation number lower than it actually is. Remember that their traditional definition of inflation is the increase in money supply.

Another thing to consider is that the cap on how high rates can be raised is quickly getting reached. Once you get to about 7 or 8%, the government itself will face a borrowing crisis. Interest payments on debt will balloon even further and soon we will be borrowing to cover paying interest

That's one it ends

[IroNat]

Q: Iron where did you post this info?

Several posts in this thread: http://www.getbig.com/boards/index.php?topic=612594.350

July 13, 2021 post #369:

"What goes up must come down.

Intelligently allocate your investment portfolio NOW!"


Q: And how does that help with food and gas prices?

If you have built wealth through intelligent and very simple investment basics then you can comfortably survive bad times.

>

''The Ant and the Grasshopper'' fable, or the ant vs. grasshopper fable, is attributed to the ancient Greek fabulist Aesop.

''The Ant and the Grasshopper'' takes place on a winter day when a group of ants is drying out some corn, which had gotten damp during the recent rain. A grasshopper comes up to the ants and asks them to spare her a few grains because she is starving. Although it was against the ants' principles to stop working, they pause for a moment to talk to the grasshopper. They ask her what she was doing all last summer, and why she did not take the time to collect a store of food to last through the winter. The grasshopper replies that she was too busy singing all summer to store food. The ants reply to her that if she spent the summer singing, she can't do better than to spend the winter dancing. The ants laugh, then return to work, giving the grasshopper nothing.

[Marvin Martian]

FIXED

Yes - he is!

[Mayday]

One thing to consider, CPI is highly massaged it's meant to keep the printed inflation number lower than it actually is. Remember that their traditional definition of inflation is the increase in money supply.

Another thing to consider is that the cap on how high rates can be raised is quickly getting reached. Once you get to about 7 or 8%, the government itself will face a borrowing crisis. Interest payments on debt will balloon even further and soon we will be borrowing to cover paying interest

That's one it ends

People argue over CPI all the time yet it’s a genuine metric of measurement. Case in point, back at 2% people argued it was shit and now in 2022 every person is watching for the monthly number…… people recognise the fact it keeps going up means shit gets worse, not that prices went up it’s 9.1%.

Forget whether the number is right, it’s an indication of inflation trend. We were at 2% and now at 9.1%. It’s fucking bad.

The guide for rate ceiling is if CPI doesn’t decline and unemployment doesn’t increase, rates can go up.  It’s pretty amazing the US can cope with the rate rises you have had. Here on prison island we are at 1.35% and people are miserable. But us Ozzie’s load up on huge home loans so any rate rise feels like a sledgehammer.


The other part to this is the Fed plans to hold rates high through 2023-24. People assume like in history the Fed will reduce rates and pivot Jan 2023 but what if they don’t? What if rates go up now, nothing breaks and the govt fire up fiscal stimmy over the top and have inflation run hot 2023-2024? Maybe we get a 1% rate rise, a small sell off to S&P 3,550 or so and that’s it?

[loco]

Your advisement regarding diversified investments is great for someone who has the funds and ability gamble on the stock market.  Unfortunately, not everyone has the assets it takes to make a noticeable difference. Those of us whose income is from a PERS annuity have no say over how our money is invested, even those of us who left money in a variable account when they retired.

My major investment is in real estate, and I live in it. Otherwise, I have a couple of TSAs, which I am required by the Feds to drawdown each year.

Last time I checked this pile was worth $780,000 which may seem like a lot to some folks... well, not Getbiggers, all of whom live in multimillion dollar McMansions. LOL! Anyway, I need to live somewhere, so it might as well be here where my expenses are nothing as compared to rents in this neck of the woods. Plus I am comfortable here and life’s short, specially for folks my age.

Investing long term in low cost, broad index funds is far from gambling.  It's a very intelligent way to invest.

Anyone with any type and size income can do it.  It's not about assets and income.  It's about how much time you are in the market, how much you spend, how much you save, how much you invest and how you invest it.

That is what IroNat advised, and now you are twisting it and calling it something that it's not because you don't understand it and don't care to educate yourself in very simple investing basics.

You have zero investment in real estate.  Your home that you live in is not a financial investment.  It's an expense, unless you are renting out parts of it and getting some cash flow out of it.  Like you said, you need to live somewhere.  So it's not like you can sell your home to spend on food and health care.

Your PERVS annuity/pension and social security should provide enough income for the rest of your life as long as your spending stays under control.

It is possible for your pension to go bankrupt, and for social security and Medicare benefits to be cut, while inflation continues to increase out of control.  However, because of your age and how little time you have left to live, you should be fine.

[OneMoreRep]

Well actually does make sense but it’s more that it wasn’t supposed to look like this.


There are 2 major drivers for this. The first is the largest monetary printing in our lifetime. The second is the huge reduction of labour participation rate as boomers retire and continue to retire.

The money printing was essentially shoving 6yrs of cash into the economy in 6 months. It’s now 2yrs later and we are still seeing price spikes as the money works it’s way through. That makes sense.

The money printing/debt monetization is just disgusting. Over the last two years, the US Federal Reserve has printed 80% of all US dollars in existence. That's just unheard of and truly a very sophisticated parlor trick meant to keep us from falling from recession, to stagflation and/or possibly a harsh depression. Granted, they will lean on the money printing coupled with lowering rates to 0% as the only 2 mechanisms the FED truly had to save a flailing economy during the inception of COVID that was followed by a 1-1.5yr economic winter. That theory seems more likely by design at this point (at least in my mind).

The unemployment rate is full employment. It’s real. Wages are ripping up and people are still walking from job to job when they feel like it. We are 99% in recession (official figure to be posted by the Fed) and Even with all the rate rises and recession jobs grew in June lol. Now THAT we definitely wouldn’t expect to see yet we did.

I read the most recent jobs report and, I have to say, I'm not buying it. It looks more as if the average American is now holding up 2 jobs at a time in order to stay above water, which is artificially making it seem as if our unemployment rate is going down. When in reality, the percentage of Americans entering the labor force hasn't really gone up, that percentage has remained stagnant. I think that sooner or later, we will see the real unemployment numbers rear their ugly heads and that's when stagflation will hit with a vengeance.

Perhaps it’s simply nothing cracks and we just go again? Or maybe it’s a re-test of the bottom and we go again, we don’t set lower lows. I just look at the inbound food issues in Q4 and along with elections the stimmy is highly probably to begin in the coming months. This doesn’t leave much time for a major market sell off.

I am acting on a 5yr inflationary cycle therefore I assume we must go again and keep the gas on. I don’t think property has any sort of collapse, I think it has a mild cool off and then goes again catching the ‘crash’ people out.

I think Q4 will be very interesting to see unfold. If I had to bet, I'd say it will be disastrous.

"1"

[loco]

Just when Democrats seemed closer to reviving parts of President Joe Biden's stalled domestic agenda, Sen. Joe Manchin pumped the brakes Wednesday.

The West Virginia Democrat – whose vote is critical for a bill the White House is waiting on – issued a blistering statement on soaring inflation, casting doubt about how far he's willing to go in a spending package. Without Manchin, the Biden administration's plans to address climate change, overhaul taxes and lower prescription drug prices hang in the balance.

What Manchin said
Manchin said it's time to get "unnecessary spending under control," calling inflation a "clear and present danger to our economy."

"No matter what spending aspirations some in Congress may have, it is clear to anyone who visits a grocery store or a gas station that we cannot add any more fuel to this inflation fire," Manchin said.

Manchin said he’s going to make sure he scrubs any item that could be considered inflationary: “We can't afford mistakes in the highest inflation we've seen in 40 years."

https://www.yahoo.com/news/sen-joe-manchin-cools-spending-193733976.html

[Gym-Rat]

Pant-Shitters got this just fine, he tells us we are doing great and how dare us question him!! 

[OneMoreRep]

Pant-Shitters got this just fine, he tells us we are doing great and how dare us question him!! 

That's a great shirt.

Would totally wear a short sleeve version of that.

"1"

[Thin Lizzy]

That's a great shirt.

Would totally wear a short sleeve version of that.

"1"

That shirt would cause many meltdowns on the upper Westside of Manhattan and Williamsburg Brooklyn.😂😂😂

[Soul Crusher]

That shirt would cause many meltdowns on the upper Westside of Manhattan and Williamsburg Brooklyn.😂😂😂

I think I am surrounded by the 30% in NYC who still approve of this idiot  and his cabal of freaks.