I believe this is the reality. I sincerely hope I am wrong. I do not want any of the aforementioned details that I wrote or even what your friend is forecasting to be true. Sadly, all fingers are pointing to that end.
What is your feeling on where we are headed? I say we, but I take it you are not from the USA. Where do you see the world headed in the next 2-3 years? 5-7 years?
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I’m in Oz which IMO is in the ‘us’ ‘we’ category as we are very close to the US.
My strategy has not changed since 2020. I based it around 5-6yrs.
I had 2022 as year of the shortage which I reckon I did pretty damn well at forecasting. I said early on the Fed target year end was 3.9% so let’s see.
I have 2023 as year of the re-price —> i believe Core inflation remains, volumes drop triggering tightening of margins causing business to re-price or risk going under. I am having these discussions at global level at the moment.
2023 rates stay up and stimmy/fiscal goes in over the top. The over tighten is on purpose to allow for a larger 2nd inflationary wave.
I have 2024-25-26 as the second inflationary wave. I think it goes for longer than the first wave because so much more money will be injected. Industry and infrastructure to be built to onshore production/jobs. Rates up at 8% or slightly higher.
It will go on after that but this is what I forecasted in March 2020.
I assume 2020-2030 incomes up 50%, cars up 300%+, property up 100%. These numbers might be on the low side, it all depends on where we bottom in 2023.
Unlike 99% I don’t foresee a property crash (cooling does not count), not even at 8%+ rates.