Federal Reserve - 0.25% rate rise today 03-22-22 from the Fed

[Flexacon]

Sorry I’m not using my words well.

Global liquidity has increased.

DXY is going to fall as the flow goes outside of the US. It will break to the downside regardless of any short term events that might trigger a sell off.

Like an earlier post, I had no faith when Bitcoin was following the S&P. It is now following liquidity and now I have faith.

I think we disagree on what's going to happen with the US markets and the dollar. DXY imo has hit it or is close to hitting it's low for a while.

Not trying to talk you out of your position though because I think we could still both be right.

I have an interesting post regarding the JPM collar, liquidity and the prices of the markets I'll put up later.

[Flexacon]

The market doesn't always follow the JPM collar. Typically it's not a great indicator as there are significant deviations from it, but it's 6 for 6 in the chart at the bottom. The most likely reason for this is that with liquidity draining from the market, the collar ranges act like magnets for whatever liquidity remains.

Here are the JPM collar SPX levels for the next quarter (30th June)

4320
3885
3280

If the trend continues then it's possible we bounce between 2 of those levels at some point over the next 3 months and end the quarter around   3885.




Obviously I'm biased with this as I've been using it for 6 months to help me time my moves and it hasn't failed me. I'll keep using it until it stops working or maybe until we get a pivot.

[Mayday]

 I always listen to what you say otherwise I’d always believe I am right.

Metals looked like retail FOMO so I exited today with a +3% day move. I’m just in sugar for now.

I looked at my data and then Put together the overlay.

DXY with inflation (orange)  and rates (blue). I dumb this right down for me.

*Rates bottom and DXY bottoms pretty much on or after
*Rates after bottoming move up and DXY begins an uptrend

*1984 DXY peaked when rates peaked
*1989 DXY peaked when rates peaked
*2000 DXY peaked when rates peaked
*2005 DXY peaked 6 months before rates peaked
*2019 DXY peaked and arguably trended sideways 6mths post rates peak

*Sep 2022 DXY peaked and 7 months later we are getting to May which I have as the rates peak (1 more hike).

Going from the above if you think the DXY goes higher then rates would need to continue increasing well past the 5% mark in order to cause the DXY to flip the other way.

Thoughts?

[Flexacon]

I always listen to what you say otherwise I’d always believe I am right.

Metals looked like retail FOMO so I exited today with a +3% day move. I’m just in sugar for now.

I looked at my data and then Put together the overlay.

DXY with inflation (orange)  and rates (blue). I dumb this right down for me.

*Rates bottom and DXY bottoms pretty much on or after
*Rates after bottoming move up and DXY begins an uptrend

*1984 DXY peaked when rates peaked
*1989 DXY peaked when rates peaked
*2000 DXY peaked when rates peaked
*2005 DXY peaked 6 months before rates peaked
*2019 DXY peaked and arguably trended sideways 6mths post rates peak

*Sep 2022 DXY peaked and 7 months later we are getting to May which I have as the rates peak (1 more hike).

Going from the above if you think the DXY goes higher then rates would need to continue increasing well past the 5% mark in order to cause the DXY to flip the other way.

Thoughts?

Remember before SVB hit the shitter a 0.50% rate rise in March was looking likely. Now that banks have that FED backstop would you say banks were weaker or stronger against any possible future market turmoil? Stronger right?

So what's different with the markets from pre SVB March and now? Nothing really other than banks are now actually more secure. The FED are free to keep doing what they need to do. JPowell has been been saying that for more than a year. Yes, they have a history of gaslighting everyone, but this time market participants have done it to themselves.

Also everyone is heading for the exit with Gold right now and typically that has a negative correlation with the DXY. That's also why I thought the bottom was close for it. Gold is approaching a resistance it's failed at twice before and it typically struggles at resistance. Gold back at 1940 would confirm another rejection. CPI tomorrow could be a catalyst.

[Irongrip400]

BBC has an article today about interest rates being likely to drop significantly. Will this be a drop affecting European markets or the world in general? How does this fit the narrative in regards to this thread?

[Flexacon]

BBC has an article today about interest rates being likely to drop significantly. Will this be a drop affecting European markets or the world in general? How does this fit the narrative in regards to this thread?

Read the article and it's from an IMF blog and it was for the US and Europe.

With regards to this thread the FEDs goal is to crush inflation and bring it down to 2%. Interest rates typically rise and fall with inflation. I guess the IMF are saying the FED will be successful with their goal.

[Mayday]

Remember before SVB hit the shitter a 0.50% rate rise in March was looking likely. Now that banks have that FED backstop would you say banks were weaker or stronger against any possible future market turmoil? Stronger right?

So what's different with the markets from pre SVB March and now? Nothing really other than banks are now actually more secure. The FED are free to keep doing what they need to do. JPowell has been been saying that for more than a year. Yes, they have a history of gaslighting everyone, but this time market participants have done it to themselves.

Also everyone is heading for the exit with Gold right now and typically that has a negative correlation with the DXY. That's also why I thought the bottom was close for it. Gold is approaching a resistance it's failed at twice before and it typically struggles at resistance. Gold back at 1940 would confirm another rejection. CPI tomorrow could be a catalyst.

Fed has been way more accurate on rates than the market. The market refused to believe May would be a hike and only this past week has gone from a 0% chance to a 60% chance of a 0.25%.

My answer would be ‘some’ banks are stronger. I am sure they will allow certain small banks to fall over as conditions tighten over the coming 6 months.

Metals are inverse to DXY yes which is why when I saw the DXY begin to stabilise I exited my
Original silver miner position.

The DXY has formed a double bottom. When it did this in 2021 it went from 90 to 114. This conflicts with my last post which shows a clear history of DXY and rate peaks.

If I try and be the best retard I can be, I see the DXY doing a historic trend of front running peak rates. History shows a 6mth lead is ok. However by May we will be 8-9 months ahead of peak rates which is a first. Then we have the DXY double bottom at strong support and on a fib band. History shows double bottoms at those positions leads to reversal and an uptrend……

Therefore if the puzzle above isn’t fitting together it makes me believe rates are wrong and by this I mean May can’t be peak rates. It must mean 6%-7% rate peak is more correct which would also mean the DXY has not yet hit its peak and that it must go higher than the previous 114 👀 

This would mean the metal trade is too early and to your point this is an exit on gold. But then you would also need to agree the DXY is going to reverse the downward trend over the next 3-6 months.

The DXY is my only pain point right now because it stopped falling which is why I’m nervous to chasing metals again. I think I was probably annoyed I sold early and am trying to convince myself to chase but now reading your posts and looking at it like a retard I’m kinda saying it’s all going to reverse.

[Flexacon]

Fed has been way more accurate on rates than the market. The market refused to believe May would be a hike and only this past week has gone from a 0% chance to a 60% chance of a 0.25%.

My answer would be ‘some’ banks are stronger. I am sure they will allow certain small banks to fall over as conditions tighten over the coming 6 months.

Metals are inverse to DXY yes which is why when I saw the DXY begin to stabilise I exited my
Original silver miner position.

The DXY has formed a double bottom. When it did this in 2021 it went from 90 to 114. This conflicts with my last post which shows a clear history of DXY and rate peaks.

If I try and be the best retard I can be, I see the DXY doing a historic trend of front running peak rates. History shows a 6mth lead is ok. However by May we will be 8-9 months ahead of peak rates which is a first. Then we have the DXY double bottom at strong support and on a fib band. History shows double bottoms at those positions leads to reversal and an uptrend……

Therefore if the puzzle above isn’t fitting together it makes me believe rates are wrong and by this I mean May can’t be peak rates. It must mean 6%-7% rate peak is more correct which would also mean the DXY has not yet hit its peak and that it must go higher than the previous 114 👀 

This would mean the metal trade is too early and to your point this is an exit on gold. But then you would also need to agree the DXY is going to reverse the downward trend over the next 3-6 months.

The DXY is my only pain point right now because it stopped falling which is why I’m nervous to chasing metals again. I think I was probably annoyed I sold early and am trying to convince myself to chase but now reading your posts and looking at it like a retard I’m kinda saying it’s all going to reverse.

I've been saying with a high degree confidence that they would continue rate raises even after SVB and the banking turmoil when the markets gave it no chance. It's not because I'm some kinda genius, I've just listened to what JPowell has said and haven't tried to second guess the FED.

So it 0.25% in May, they hold, but maybe unemployment, jobs data etc in the summer isn't where they want it so a couple more rate rises, or they just carry on with another 0.25% in June. We'll get a better idea this week.

Regarding my thoughts on DXY from a month back

Recession/high unemployment in early 2024, DXY over 110 and then the money printer eventually fires up to take the markets to new ATH. Just gotta remember the markets will probably bottom several months after a FED pivot.

My angle is only focused on the US though. China and the rest of the world could be buying up gold and metals. I haven't paid much attention to it, that's why I said we could both be right, but as a trading strategy you never want to buy when something is at resistance, buy at support. So even if you miss a move on metals you don't need to beat yourself up over it as you stuck to the more profitable strategy. You still have some time though to see which way the market turns and then make your move. If 10 year goes up after CPI, it's over for gold.

Also more on my take on US markets. Hedefunds are net short in a big way right now. At levels which typically line up with a decent drop in the market. It's looking like a Jackson Hole set up again.

[dunkin donuts]

Some gold maxies predict gold to be above 20k
 

[Mayday]

I've been saying with a high degree confidence that they would continue rate raises even after SVB and the banking turmoil when the markets gave it no chance. It's not because I'm some kinda genius, I've just listened to what JPowell has said and haven't tried to second guess the FED.

So it 0.25% in May, they hold, but maybe unemployment, jobs data etc in the summer isn't where they want it so a couple more rate rises, or they just carry on with another 0.25% in June. We'll get a better idea this week.

Regarding my thoughts on DXY from a month back

My angle is only focused on the US though. China and the rest of the world could be buying up gold and metals. I haven't paid much attention to it, that's why I said we could both be right, but as a trading strategy you never want to buy when something is at resistance, buy at support. So even if you miss a move on metals you don't need to beat yourself up over it as you stuck to a winning strategy. You still have some time though to see which way the market turns and then jump in.

Also more on my take on US markets. Hedefunds are net short in a big way right now. At levels which typically line up with a decent drop in the market. It's looking like a Jackson Hole set up again.

Thanks for the responses.

Makes sense and now I see why the DXY has suddenly held support. when the Fed pivots it will be a pivot higher. Might need a 6% rate afterall.

I took my miners position about 6 weeks ago and chart looked much cooler then. It is overheating now on daily and weekly. I’ll keep safe and avoid going in.

My sugar position gained +3% today and looks clean to continue moving north for a bit.

I saw the JH setup in a post on my feed. Apparently highly reliable just before a massive dump as you suggest. Oil should plummet if this plays out, you thinking of taking energy futures later on?


I’ll be keeping an eye on the DXY. If we see a break out Below 101 it could fall towards the 96 range.

[Flexacon]

Core CPI still elevated so 0.25% in May looks even more certain, although stagflation looks to have entered the chat now.

With regards to DXY and gold I forgot to mention the  US10 year. It needs to go down then gold can go up. Dropping below 3.3% sends gold up. It made a move for it after CPI numbers, but bounced straight back up. So basically more resistance against gold moving higher.

I do have some views on oil I'll post later. I'm already in on Nat gas, but that was purely based on technicals and a double bottom.

I know nothing about Sugar futures, but that move has been crazy. Hope it keeps printing for you.

*Oil initially went up with CPI and hit resistance. If it drops down to 80 from here in the next week or so then it's a potential short. Breaks resistance then it's a long. My bias is towards shorting, but I'll wait and okay with missing any move here.

[Mayday]

Core CPI still elevated so 0.25% in May looks even more certain, although stagflation looks to have entered the chat now.

With regards to DXY and gold I forgot to mention the  US10 year. It needs to go down then gold can go up. Dropping below 3.3% sends gold up. It made a move for it after CPI numbers, but bounced straight back up. So basically more resistance against gold moving higher.

I do have some views on oil I'll post later. I'm already in on Nat gas, but that was purely based on technicals and a double bottom.

I know nothing about Sugar futures, but that move has been crazy. Hope it keeps printing for you.

*Oil initially went up with CPI and hit resistance. If it drops down to 80 from here in the next week or so then it's a potential short. Breaks resistance then it's a long. My bias is towards shorting, but I'll wait and okay with missing any move here.

Interesting re the 10Y. in inflationary cycles I did see the 10Y make multiple peaks before it would peak. So it’s fair to suggest just because we see a pullback now doesn’t mean we have hit the peak peak of the first wave.

I have been watching Nat Gas for a while. Looks like a solid entry but I can’t get futures otherwise I’d already be in position. we have nat gas companies here but it’s all moved up Already so it’s not really worth me jumping into.

Silver miners down here have gone FOMO spastic. Daily is full blown RSI blow off territory now and the price chart is gapping up overnight. It’s to risky to enter most stuff now. It looks like a crypto shitcoin down here lol. It’ll revert for sure over the coming weeks so I’ll wait and see how it looks then.

Sugar is not a huge position for me whereas silver was. it’s in a company rather than futures so it has some space to run for a while.

Oil is interesting. Short term who the fuck knows but ultimately demand has to get crushed and oil will go with it. For oil look at the 60-70-80 energy shock period as it’s what lies ahead. My model has us in the 60s which is before the first recession of 1970-71. You can see the second inflation leg from 1973 and what happens next. It’s fucked up lol.

Coal futures daily and weekly looks solid like nat gas. Weekly suggests it could be the start of a long term run up.

[Mayday]

I think seeing the silver miner trade here locally shows just how much money is sitting on the sidelines.

Then you consider oil everyone went long, lumber looks primed for a long, Nat Gas looks prime for a long and these would trigger inflation to go up.

It’s Really suggests rates have to keep going up in order to prevent commodities ripping skyward and causing inflation to Run upwards again.

When you look at the 10Y in the late 60s there was multiple peaks before the actual true peak.

[Flexacon]

Interesting re the 10Y. in inflationary cycles I did see the 10Y make multiple peaks before it would peak. So it’s fair to suggest just because we see a pullback now doesn’t mean we have hit the peak peak of the first wave.

I have been watching Nat Gas for a while. Looks like a solid entry but I can’t get futures otherwise I’d already be in position. we have nat gas companies here but it’s all moved up Already so it’s not really worth me jumping into.

Silver miners down here have gone FOMO spastic. Daily is full blown RSI blow off territory now and the price chart is gapping up overnight. It’s to risky to enter most stuff now. It looks like a crypto shitcoin down here lol. It’ll revert for sure over the coming weeks so I’ll wait and see how it looks then.

Sugar is not a huge position for me whereas silver was. it’s in a company rather than futures so it has some space to run for a while.

Oil is interesting. Short term who the fuck knows but ultimately demand has to get crushed and oil will go with it. For oil look at the 60-70-80 energy shock period as it’s what lies ahead. My model has us in the 60s which is before the first recession of 1970-71. You can see the second inflation leg from 1973 and what happens next. It’s fucked up lol.

Coal futures daily and weekly looks solid like nat gas. Weekly suggests it could be the start of a long term run up.

I'm sure you can get etoro and similar trading apps. They have horrible spread/fees system but that also has a way of stopping you from over trading. Once you're in long on something you really like you just hold until you get decent returns, otherwise you're throwing away money on fees.

The FED minutes is already talking about a recession, meanwhile Biden is saying no recession and everything is great. I'm not second guessing the FED so my moves are pretty predictable. I will wait for the SPX to hit one of the JPM colour targets (ideally 4300ish) and start shorting. Took a small long on DXY today at support though.

[Flexacon]

I've been saying with a high degree confidence that they would continue rate raises even after SVB and the banking turmoil when the markets gave it no chance. It's not because I'm some kinda genius, I've just listened to what JPowell has said and haven't tried to second guess the FED.

So it 0.25% in May, they hold, but maybe unemployment, jobs data etc in the summer isn't where they want it so a couple more rate rises, or they just carry on with another 0.25% in June. We'll get a better idea this week.

Market is pretty much setting things up as I said

FED'S WALLER: RECENT NUMBERS INDICATE THE FED HASN'T MADE MUCH PROGRESS TOWARDS ITS INFLATION GOAL, AND RATES NEED TO INCREASE EVEN HIGHER.

FED'S WALLER: LONGER THAN EXPECTED BY THE MARKETS, MONETARY POLICY WILL NEED TO REMAIN STRICT FOR A "SUBSTANTIAL" AMOUNT OF TIME.

JPMORGAN CEO SAYS PEOPLE NEED TO BE PREPARED FOR HIGHER RATES FOR LONGER

BLACKROCK CEO FINK: I SEE TWO TO THREE MORE FED RATE INCREASES.

Price action since the markets topped at the end of 2021 has been all about liquidity. Everything else is just narrative and noise.
QQQ (orange) vs net liquidity (blue)

[Mayday]

Market is pretty much setting things up as I said

Price action since the markets topped at the end of 2021 has been all about liquidity. Everything else is just narrative and noise.
QQQ (orange) vs net liquidity (blue)

If the answer is actually 7% rate target then bond market is going to have a come to Jesus moment as they are all positioned for a recession with a crushed inflation rate.

If 7% is the target then it’s long DXY, long Energy, short silver/gold. This would also mean whatever highs we had in DXY and oil won’t be the actual high so oil target is >130.

Oil production just got cut by Saudis after US said they would buy to refill SPR which they didn’t do. So Saudis cut production based on No US bid and recession estimate, US then turns around and restarts inflationary policy which causes an energy and supply crunch mkii 🤔

[Flexacon]

If the answer is actually 7% rate target then bond market is going to have a come to Jesus moment as they are all positioned for a recession with a crushed inflation rate.

I was warning about this happening a month ago

If there isn't a 50 bps rate hike and nothing breaks then markets could have a brief rally, but it's just delaying the inevitable.

I'm not saying anything new here. I'm basically just repeating myself now

If 7% is the target then it’s long DXY, long Energy, short silver/gold. This would also mean whatever highs we had in DXY and oil won’t be the actual high so oil target is >130.

The market is tightly controlled right now so it's unlikely we'll get higher highs or lower lows in anything for 2023 (assuming no black swan like China/Taiwan) I see DXY going higher than 110 eventually, but not by much.

10yr appears to have bottomed, so gold is a fade for me (no need to touch it with a DXY long) I expect crypto to top out in May thanks to China money. Gold could do the same for the same reason, but I haven't really looked too much into that.

Don't have a price forecast, but I got DXY lows for the year in mid/late April, stocks markets peaking in May and tech earnings then crashing everything. I would expect for the most part that BTC will follow. So bitcoin mini cycle top in May followed by a June low

More of me saying the same thing weeks ago

The sideways equity chop is where I'm pretty much at right now and for the foreseeable future. Maybe when something breaks they start stimmy

Oil production just got cut by Saudis after US said they would buy to refill SPR which they didn’t do. So Saudis cut production based on No US bid and recession estimate, US then turns around and restarts inflationary policy which causes an energy and supply crunch mkii 🤔

The whole news cycle was Saudi and other OPEC countries giving the US a big Fuck U. Inflation was going up anyway, now they'll have someone to blame. Oil eventually heads down, hard to say when though so I'm not rushing to get involved there.

Again I'm not saying anything new

The OPEC cuts to oil production is potentially another recession indicator, but naturally the cuts are getting politicized in an attempt to divert attention.

Larry Fink has the same thesis as me only 6 weeks later. Again it's not cos I'm some stock market guru, I just eventually figured out what news to listen and what to fade.

BlackRock CEO Larry Fink said the U.S. could skirt a recession this year,  "I'm not sure we're going to have a recession in 2023, we may have it in early 24... inflation is going to be stickier for longer."

Recession/high unemployment in early 2024, DXY over 110 and then the money printer eventually fires up to take the markets to new ATH. Just gotta remember the markets will probably bottom several months after a FED pivot.

[Flexacon]

FED'S BULLARD: BECAUSE THERE HASN'T BEEN MUCH DISCERNIBLE PROGRESS ON INFLATION, INTEREST RATES MUST CONTINUE TO RISE

FED'S BULLARD: I STILL SEE ADEQUATELY RESTRICTIVE POLICY RATE AT 5.50%-5.75% RANGE. BIAS TO HOLD FOR LONGER UNTIL INFLATION CONTAINED.

Shorts on the main indices today. Liquidity drying up. Downwards for the rest of April and possibly early May.

[Mayday]

FED'S BULLARD: BECAUSE THERE HASN'T BEEN MUCH DISCERNIBLE PROGRESS ON INFLATION, INTEREST RATES MUST CONTINUE TO RISE

FED'S BULLARD: I STILL SEE ADEQUATELY RESTRICTIVE POLICY RATE AT 5.50%-5.75% RANGE. BIAS TO HOLD FOR LONGER UNTIL INFLATION CONTAINED.

Shorts on the main indices today. Liquidity drying up. Downwards for the rest of April and possibly early May.

Market has priced in rate cuts. They don’t believe the Fed or ECB. Maybe you get your range low 3,800?

Are ECB in a ‘soft war’ with the US via rates? If ECB signal 5.75% the US surely wants to be higher to reduce risk of capital outflow?

[Flexacon]

Market has priced in rate cuts. They don’t believe the Fed or ECB. Maybe you get your range low 3,800?

Are ECB in a ‘soft war’ with the US via rates? If ECB signal 5.75% the US surely wants to be higher to reduce risk of capital outflow?

May could still be bullish for the markets. Let's see  what they do at the FED meeting. I'm still open to either eventually tapping either 4300/4350 or 3850/90 by end of June, maybe even both. I'll SHORT at 4300ish, LONG 3900ish (obviously hoping we tap 3900 in the next few weeks)

My 3800 low would be for very late 2023 or early 2024 as part of a successful soft landing.

I think the ECB and the FED are basically working together with the FED acting as the senior partner. That was pretty clear at least with the Credit Suisse and BNP aftermath. 

UK inflation print today over 10% (expected in the single digits) should be a wake up call for everyone else

[Flexacon]

Prediction for the markets for the next couple of weeks and May. Bulls get trapped or maybe even flip bear. Fed meeting in May might even be hawkish adding to the bear sentiment. Peak bear mode is engaged by the markets.

0DTE options pile in at the bottom in early/mid May and launch everything skywards like one of Elons rocket, and just like his rocket it blows up and crashes back down to Earth in June.

[Mayday]

Prediction for the markets for the next couple of weeks and May. Bulls get trapped or maybe even flip bear. Fed meeting in May might even be hawkish adding to the bear sentiment. Peak bear mode is engaged by the markets.

0DTE options pile in at the bottom in early/mid May and launch everything skywards like one of Elons rocket, and just like his rocket it blows up and crashes back down to Earth in June.

Sold my sugar position, just over 10% so I’m pretty happy to take it and run.

It isn’t that things can’t go higher but it’s that the daily ramped so hard on metals and other things for the past 4 weeks it’s pure parabola. I look at the weekly and the pullback point on a bunch of these things is still another 15% lower than today.

DXY looks double bottomed on the weekly. This was always my biggest worry for this recent rallly move.

FOMC 3rd May. It’ll be +0.25%
3rd May / 5th May / 10th May apparently the key dates for volatility which is what you said above about early May taking lows and then rally upwards.

It feels a tad dangerous at the moment. I know I’m likely looking for a short term pullback and a bounce that fails like you suggest. Rising DXY kills so many things I was looking at.

What are you eyeing if you were to buy a pullback mid May?

[Flexacon]

Sold my sugar position, just over 10% so I’m pretty happy to take it and run.

It isn’t that things can’t go higher but it’s that the daily ramped so hard on metals and other things for the past 4 weeks it’s pure parabola. I look at the weekly and the pullback point on a bunch of these things is still another 15% lower than today.

DXY looks double bottomed on the weekly. This was always my biggest worry for this recent rallly move.

FOMC 3rd May. It’ll be +0.25%
3rd May / 5th May / 10th May apparently the key dates for volatility which is what you said above about early May taking lows and then rally upwards.

It feels a tad dangerous at the moment. I know I’m likely looking for a short term pullback and a bounce that fails like you suggest. Rising DXY kills so many things I was looking at.

What are you eyeing if you were to buy a pullback mid May?

I'm following a liquidity model which has been incredibly accurate for several months now. My post from today is just a rehash of a post from 3 weeks ago and it's setting up for this really nicely.

Don't have a price forecast, but I got DXY lows for the year in mid/late April, stocks markets peaking in May and tech earnings then crashing everything. I would expect for the most part that BTC will follow. So bitcoin mini cycle top in May followed by a June low

As long as you don't allow yourself to get super bullish or super bearish, buy at support then you should be okay with most picks.

I'm just gonna stick with the indices though as 0DTE flow and the JPM collar are my signals for when to buy and sell. Takes all the stress out of it. Probably pick up some crypto and some point too. If I find something I really like I'll post it. (Maybe Tesla if we get to 130 or a double bottom)

[Flexacon]

The SPX liquidity models have a possible target of around 4075 in a few days, I'll take 4090. May is a big move up for risk on assets thanks in part to China money. Crypto will probably benefit the most from it and peak in May. A dip before the rip scenario looks in play.

June is bear month for the SPX. The debt ceiling outcome would be a good reason to send the markets the lower. Doesn't actually matter which way the decision goes as both outcomes send it lower.

On the crypto side I'm keeping an eye on a possible Lido and stETH de-peg sending ETH sub 1K. This could be caused either by hackers or by large scale selling. Lido is due a big unstaking which they keep delaying. Insiders are looking to exit (possibly May or more likely June) and it's all getting very sketchy there.

* 4080 locked. Time to scalp the bounce



*Scalp returned nothing and missed the drop on SPX. 10 year will have to do, expecting it to drop from 3.45% to sub 3.3%end of month.

[Mayday]

The SPX liquidity models have a possible target of around 4075 in a few days, I'll take 4090. May is a big move up for risk on assets thanks in part to China money. Crypto will probably benefit the most from it and peak in May. A dip before the rip scenario looks in play.

June is bear month for the SPX. The debt ceiling outcome would be a good reason to send the markets the lower. Doesn't actually matter which way the decision goes as both outcomes send it lower.

On the crypto side I'm keeping an eye on a possible Lido and stETH de-peg sending ETH sub 1K. This could be caused either by hackers or by large scale selling. Lido is due a big unstaking which they keep delaying. Insiders are looking to exit (possibly May or more likely June) and it's all getting very sketchy there.

* 4080 locked. Time to scalp the bounce



*Scalp returned nothing and missed the drop on SPX. 10 year will have to do, expecting it to drop from 3.45% to sub 3.3%end of month.

I’m still sidelined, lithoum recyclers and rural on a large leg down and Im waitiing to see an entry.

DXY at a turning point. If we go down it’s metals and rate cut, if we go up DXY to new highs, equities to new highs, oil to new highs. Metals and crypto to nuke.