I get the impression polls mean nothing to some people when they don't agree with the results and everything when they do. Polls are loosely calculated and sometimes manipulated predictions which may be way off. What counts most is how the public votes come next November not how they say they will vote ahead of that time,
I completely agree with you that it is way too soon to know how VP Harris and Donald Trump's campaigns will shape up in terms of either of them winning the 2024 election. The public is fickle and when you least think it can happen, they will turn on someone, either in favor of them or against them.
The quality of polls definitely varies, but good pollsters are actually decent at predicting the outcome of elections. It's much harder to predict anything since Trump, but the polls do generally give us a reasonable prediction of what will actually happen.
Regarding presidential polls, it's true that polls in battle ground states are much better indicators of what will happen, but national polls tend to track what is happening in the states, so national polls are not completely useless. So I somewhat disagree with Frank Luntz in that regard.