IS ISRAEL WINNING?
In war, the headlines often focus on fear, destruction, and uncertainty. But step back from the noise and look at the strategic picture. What is actually happening on the battlefield — and in the skies above it — tells a very different story.
Israel is winning this war. Not through slogans or wishful thinking, but through clear, measurable results.
Operational Superiority
First, consider the most basic fact: despite repeated attempts, Iran has had zero success in targeting Israeli aircraft, Air Force personnel, or strategic assets. Israeli fighter jets are flying deep inside Iranian airspace, conducting operations thousands of miles from home. Every sortie requires enormous logistical precision: intelligence, aerial refueling, and coordination across multiple domains. Yet the pilots return safely, mission after mission. Knock on wood.
That reality alone is extraordinary.
Israel is a country roughly 75 times smaller than Iran, yet Israeli aircraft are operating freely in Iranian skies nearly 1,500 miles away. Geography should make this impossible. Instead, it demonstrates the gap between the two militaries. Iran may possess size and rhetoric; Israel possesses operational superiority. The IDF and US Armed Forces have neutralized 70% of Iran’s missile launchers since the beginning of the operation, over 85% of Iran’s aerial defenses, and have eliminated thousands of terrorist personnel. Those numbers are not just impressive; they are crucial to understand why engaging in this mission is necessary for Israel’s survival.
Degrading Capabilities
Second, the trend line of Iran’s offensive capabilities tells the real story.
On April 13th, 2024, Iran launched over 300 drones, cruise missiles, and ballistic missiles directly at Israel on a single day.
On October 1st, 2024, Iran launched around 200 ballistic missiles at Israel in at least two waves.
In June 2025, Iran launched 500-600 ballistic missiles in just a few days.
Those barrages were designed to overwhelm Israeli defenses and demonstrate strategic strength. But today the numbers tell a different story. Instead of massive waves, Iran is now firing single-digit or low double-digit launches each day.
That shift is not accidental. It reflects the progress being made on the ground by the Israeli Air Force — by targeting the infrastructure behind those attacks: missile launchers, storage facilities, command centers, and production capabilities.
The ability to launch hundreds of missiles does not disappear overnight unless the systems enabling it are being dismantled piece by piece.
Teamwork
Third, this campaign is not happening in isolation.
Israel is operating together with the United States, whose military capabilities — from naval power to aerial defense systems — are helping degrade Iran’s ability to threaten the entire region. Iranian air defenses, radar systems, and strategic assets are under constant pressure from our strong and powerful alliance.
Every destroyed launcher, every neutralized radar installation, every disrupted command structure weakens Iran’s military machine and benefits the entire region.
Strategy
Finally, Israel’s approach is structured and strategic.
This is not a single battlefield. Israel and the US are simultaneously targeting multiple layers of Iranian power: nuclear infrastructure, ballistic missile capabilities, aerial defense systems, space and surveillance assets, military operatives, and senior leadership networks. Each domain reinforces the others. When command structures weaken, missile forces become less effective. When air defenses collapse, deeper targets become reachable.
It is a systematic dismantling of capability.
Leadership
In a fast-moving news cycle, even the most significant moments can quickly feel like yesterday’s story. The elimination of much of Iran’s senior military leadership within 40 seconds is one of those moments — but it is indeed one of the greatest historic and operational achievements both the IDF and the US Armed Forces have ever conducted.
A striking demonstration of intelligence precision and operational capability.
Still, wars are rarely decided by a single dramatic moment.
They are decided by trends — the ability to sustain operational momentum, degrade the adversary’s capabilities over time, and maintain strategic initiative with minimal losses.
Right now, the trend is clear. Israel is winning.
https://open.substack.com/pub/idfspokesperson/p/is-israel-winning?selection=da0b913b-522c-46b3-8c96-3c491507e0f5&r=4rqxmv&utm_medium=ios
