https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/apr/18/iran-war-bets-ethics-concernsTraders placed over $1bn in perfectly timed bets on the Iran war. What is going on?
Suspicious wagers on the US-Israel war in Iran are creating huge windfalls and raising concerns among lawmakers
Sixteen bets made $100,000 accurately predicting the timing of the US airstrikes against Iran on 27 February. Later, a single user would make over $550,000 after betting that Ayatollah Ali Khamenei would topple, just moments before his assassination by Israeli forces. On 7 April, right before Donald Trump announced a temporary ceasefire with Iran, traders bet $950m that oil prices would come down. They did.