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Getbig Main Boards => Politics and Political Issues Board => Topic started by: Fury on May 02, 2012, 05:38:21 AM
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ADP Misses Big, Prints Lowest Increase Since September; Manufacturing Jobs Post Shocking Decline
Those hoping Goldman's NFP forecast of 125,000, well below consensus, is wrong, may have to reassess their thesis following the just released ADP number which came as a big disappointment to consensus of 170,000, instead printing at only +119,000, to 110,590. (The previous improvement was also downward revised from +209K to +201). This was the lowest sequential change since September 2011, and confirms once again, the declining trends last seen in... 2011. It was also the biggest miss in 11 months. Luckily, as the scatterplot below shows, ADP is completely meaningless when predicting NFP so our gut reaction would be to expect a beat in NFP based on this print considering the whole Schrodinger economy and what not (see China). However, on an apples to apples basis, one thing is certain: record warm winter payback is a bitch. And finally, that whole Obama export renaissance is not doing all too hot: goods producing sector: -4,000 in April, while manufacturing jobs declined by -5,000. But, but, the soaring ISM..... oh forget it.
(http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2012/04/ADp%20breakdown_0.jpg)
From the press release, where we find Hopium is back:
“According to data shown in the ADP National Employment Report, monthly employment gains averaged just over 200,000 during the first quarter of this year,” said Carlos Rodriguez, President and CEO of ADP. “This month’s modest increase of 119,000 jobs appears consistent with the first-quarter Gross Domestic Product growth of 2.2 percent.
We hope future rates of job creation will be more aggressive and sustained,” Rodriguez added.
According to Joel Prakken, Chairman of Macroeconomic Advisers, LLC, “While April’s increase was the twenty-seventh consecutive monthly advance, it nonetheless reflected a deceleration in the recent pace of hiring. This deceleration seems consistent with other incoming data, including a disappointingly weak report on first-quarter Gross Domestic Product, a recent back-up in initial unemployment claims, and last month’s relatively weak reading on establishment employment reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.”
Prakken added: “There is some evidence that unusually warm weather boosted employment during the winter months, with a “payback” now coming due. The modest rise in private employment suggests that the national unemployment rate probably did not decline in April unless there was a notable decline in the labor force.”
From the report:
Employment in the U.S. nonfarm private business sector increased by 119,000 from March to April on a seasonally adjusted basis. The estimated gain from February to March was revised down modestly, from the initial estimate of 209,000 to a revised estimate of 201,000.
Employment in the private, service-providing sector increased 123,000 in April, after rising 158,000 in March. Employment in the private, goods-producing sector declined 4,000 jobs in April. Manufacturing employment dropped 5,000 jobs, the first loss since September of last year.
Employment on large payrolls—those with 500 or more workers—increased 4,000 and employment on medium payrolls—those with 50 to 499 workers—rose 57,000 in April.
Employment on small payrolls—those with up to 49 workers—rose 58,000 that same period. Of the 57,000 jobs created by medium- sized businesses, 8,000 jobs were created by the goods-producing sector and 49,000 jobs were created by the service-providing sector.
Construction employment also fell by 5,000, the first decline in seven months and following healthy gains during the unusually warm winter months. Employment in the financial services sector increased 13,000 in April, marking nine consecutive monthly gains there.
(http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2012/04/ADP%20April_0.jpg)
(http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2012/04/Adp%20April%20Miss_0.jpg)
(http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2012/04/ADP%20119K_0.png)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/adp-misses-big-prints-lowest-increase-september-manufacturing-jobs-post-shocking-decline
Obama saved America via seasonal retail temp jobs! What a sad joke. Can't wait to see the drones ignore this thread like the plague.
FOUR MORE YEARS!
FOUR MORE YEARS!
FOUR MORE YEARS!
FOUR MORE YEARS!
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This means fridays number is likly to be lower than this since that has been the pattern.
The fact is that the economy is dead. We are not in freefall, but we are going backwards since in the next few months hundreds of thousands of newe college grads will be entering the work force with no jobs at all.
Are they even counted?
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This means fridays number is likly to be lower than this since that has been the pattern.
The fact is that the economy is dead. We are not in freefall, but we are going backwards since in the next few months hundreds of thousands of newe college grads will be entering the work force with no jobs at all.
Are they even counted?
1 out of 2 college grads will be either unemployed or underemployed. Obama saved us all! It brings tears to my eyes knowing that someone so COOL could take time out of his COOL life to act like the COOL guy that he is and nonchalantly save us. He's just so COOL!
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1 out of 2 college grads will be either unemployed or underemployed. Obama saved us all! It brings tears to my eyes knowing that someone so COOL could take time out of his COOL life to act like the COOL guy that he is and nonchalantly save us. He's just so COOL!
Look, the solution is clear.
In the communist utopia Phd's will stand shoulder to shoulder with doctors, lawyers, carpenters, cooks and farmers-- digging ditches, working at government run factories and pouring cement.
I think that Osama's 2012 campaign slogan should be: "How much fairness, can you handle?"
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Look, the solution is clear.
In the communist utopia Phd's will stand shoulder to shoulder with doctors, lawyers, carpenters, cooks and farmers-- digging ditches, working at government run factories and pouring cement.
I think that Osama's 2012 campaign slogan should be: "How much fairness, can you handle?"
;D ;D ;D
I'll have to slightly disagree with you there, though. The first people the Khmer Rouge took care of were all the PhDs and other "intellectuals" that helped get them into power. They'll be the first to get lined up in the killing fields as they're not usually physically fit enough to dig ditches. They'll make a good soylent green, though.
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Indeed.
In Osama's vision however, such vermin will be relegated to menial positions on the President for life's permanent re-election campaign staff.
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This gives the Fed more reason to put on another QE3, or whatever it will be called, and really push this thing off a cliff.
If it didn't work the first time and it didn't work the 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th time.....well, it has to work this time!
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http://www.zerohedge.com/news/adp-misses-big-prints-lowest-increase-september-manufacturing-jobs-post-shocking-decline
Where is Benny and Andre?
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Obama saved America from the abyss. Another 20-30 years of this phenomenal job growth and all will be well.
Obama is so smart and cool and personable and just all-around AWESOME. He's paying for my gas, too!
FOUR MORE YEARS!
FOUR MORE YEARS!
FOUR MORE YEARS!
FOUR MORE YEARS!
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DATA SNAP: US March Factory Orders Post Biggest Drop In 3 Years
Nasdaq ^
WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)--U.S. factory orders fell at the sharpest pace in three years in March, a sign that demand is slowing amid an uneven economic recovery.
Orders for manufactured goods declined 1.5% to $460.46 billion, the Commerce Department said Wednesday. That matched expectations of economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires.
Factory orders over the previous month were revised down, as well, to a 1.1% increase from an initial estimate for a 1.3% gain.
(Excerpt) Read more at nasdaq.com ...
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Skip to comments.
As Economy Sputters, Obama Tries Distraction
IBD Editorials ^ | May 2, 2012
Posted on May 2, 2012 9:31:45 PM EDT by Kaslin
Economy: It's no wonder President Obama wants to direct everyone's attention to far-off Afghanistan these days. The economic news here at home is looking increasingly grim.
Just 28 days after Time magazine ran an April 2 cover story boasting that "in the past few weeks, signs of economic expansion have been everywhere" it warned that "the economy might be stalling."
The article pointed to "disappointing" news that Q1 GDP had climbed just 2.2% — below expectations — and job growth in March was 120,000, also a miss.
Now, two more troubling signs have emerged. The government reported on Wednesday that new factory orders fell 1.5% in March, the steepest drop since March 2009, when the country was still in recession.
Then ADP reported that private employment climbed just 119,000 in April — the smallest gain in seven months and also far below expectations. The April employment report comes out Friday, which economists think will show an unimpressive 160,000 job gain.
Seems that, once again, all the talk about "green shoots" and "turning the corner" and reaching "escape velocity" are just more false hopes.
(Excerpt) Read more at news.investors.com ...
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1 out of 2 college grads will be either unemployed or underemployed. Obama saved us all! It brings tears to my eyes knowing that someone so COOL could take time out of his COOL life to act like the COOL guy that he is and nonchalantly save us. He's just so COOL!
its amazing how when the job figures are good for Obama you criticize and say they are made up and when they go south you are on here touting them...your hypocrisy is amazing
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its amazing how when the job figures are good for Obama you criticize and say they are made up and when they go south you are on here touting them...your hypocrisy is amazing
When have the jobs data ever been good under this disastrous regime?
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its amazing how when the job figures are good for Obama you criticize and say they are made up and when they go south you are on here touting them...your hypocrisy is amazing
Ironic considering your "Obama is whooping my ass" posts a few months ago. Now you have nothing to say. How does it feel eating crow? You were cumming in your pants over holiday retail temp jobs when the rest of us called this coming. Now you're crying about how we don't praise Obama for creating 2 months worth of minimum wage jobs, haha.
Your hypocrisy is amazing. I'll give you credit, though, as I expected you to avoid this thread.
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its amazing how when the job figures are good for Obama you criticize and say they are made up and when they go south you are on here touting them...your hypocrisy is amazing
Hey, chump. The numbers were never good. You have 8230928402384 degrees, according to you, and you are still too stupid to understand that any "good" numbers in the winter were based on seasonal jobs. There are now more people on welfare THAN EVER BEFORE and A LOT LESS PEOPLE IN THE WORKFORCE.
Go back to basket weaving you liberal schmuck.
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Funny how everybody thinks the pres has a major impact on the job situation
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Funny how everybody thinks the pres has a major impact on the job situation
LOL - yes he does. most businesses will not hire anyone until this communist ghetto looter is tossed from office.
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LOL - yes he does. most businesses will not hire anyone until this communist ghetto looter is tossed from office.
Sure ::)
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Sure ::)
Yes sure blackass - why do you think this has been THE WORST RECOVERY IN THE HISTORY OF THIS NATION?
Businesses have been on strike since the day pelosi and reid took over in the congress and this ghetto marxist piece of trash was nominated.
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Funny how everybody thinks the pres has a major impact on the job situation
The ENTIRE Democratic Party and all the Liberal buffoons thought so after the Bush presidency.
Are you really this stupid? You try to defend Obama, but by your own "logic", Obama is a pretty "funny" guy since he spent his entire presidency blaming Bush.
How come your mind doesn't compute that Obama should be judged in the exact manner that he judged Bush?
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Yes sure blackass - why do you think this has been THE WORST RECOVERY IN THE HISTORY OF THIS NATION?
Businesses have been on strike since the day pelosi and reid took over in the congress and this ghetto marxist piece of trash was nominated.
Im not black ???
Alright then i guess the day Romney is elected our un-employment drops and our economy is fine again.
Obama is shit ( Larry Summers anyone) but take your colored glasses of Romney cant do a damn thing either
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Another Hint Of Bad Jobs News...
Joe Weisenthal|May 3, 2012, 8:08 AM|833|4
From this months Challenger Layoffs Report:
The pace of downsizing remained virtually unchanged in April, as U.S.-based employers announced planned job cuts totaling 40,559 during the month. That is a 7.1 percent increase from 37,880 job cuts announced in March, according to the latest job-cut report released Thursday by global outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc.
April job cuts were up 11.2 percent from the same month a year ago, when employers announced 36,490 planned cuts, the lowest monthly total recorded in 2011.
That 11.2% jump is a turnaround from last month's fall of 8%.
What's weird is how different this number is than initial jobless claims, which have been steadily 5-10% below a year ago levels.
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/challenger-job-cuts-2012-5#ixzz1tpAlM7qA
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Funny how Obama told the GOP and everyone else to get in the back seat because he was driving this rig. Flash forward 2 years and now we get token Andre on here trying to push blame off of him. Color me surprised. ::)
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Funny how Obama told the GOP and everyone else to get in the back seat because he was driving this rig. Flash forward 2 years and now we get token Andre on here trying to push blame off of him. Color me surprised. ::)
Other than petty personal insults, they have nothing at all.
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Bump. I don't see a single Obama drone posting in this thread.
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Bump. I don't see a single Obama drone posting in this thread.
we're too upset about trayvon. i can't believe zimm didn't get bail revoked for that that myspace page.
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we're too upset about trayvon. i can't believe zimm didn't get bail revoked for that that myspace page.
Fuck off, you thread derailing c*nt.
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Dismal Job Growth and Stagnation Will Unseat Obama
By EDWARD MORRISSEY, The Fiscal Times
May 3, 2012
For months, the Obama administration has told American voters that the nation had turned the corner on a stagnant recovery. Job creation picked up in December, January, and February, averaging a decent if unspectacular 217,000 jobs added monthly during that period.
The Fiscal Times FREE Newsletter
It seemed as though the economy would provide the White House with momentum heading into a tough election fight -- not just for the White House but also for the Senate where Democrats have to defend 23 of the 33 seats up for election this year. Evidence of success from Barack Obama’s economic policies might keep both in Democratic hands, especially as voters start taking the election seriously this summer.
A month ago, the March numbers dashed those hopes. Job creation slowed significantly to 120,000, and a few weeks later, the GDP report for the first quarter provided some explanation. Growth slowed from a pedestrian 3.0 percent in the fourth quarter of 2011 to a stagnation-level 2.2 percent. Still, the White House suggested that this was merely a hiccup in an overall improvement for job creation and economic growth. One month does not a trend make, after all.
Yesterday, though, the monthly report from ADP, the nation’s largest private-sector payroll management firm, indicated that April might actually be worse than March. ADP produces a projection based on a sample of a half-million of its anonymous customers, comprising 21 million payroll jobs.
That’s not unlike the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which derives its job-related data from two surveys, one of households and the other of businesses. Gallup has a semi-monthly report that uses a sample roughly half that of the BLS’ 60,000 households, but samples continuously throughout the month rather than at one fixed time. Between the three, analysts can get a pretty good idea of how well the economy is creating jobs.
In its April report, ADP estimated that the private sector added only 119,000 jobs, just a little over half of their estimate in March (201,000). For the first time since September, ADP estimated a net job loss in manufacturing, down 5,000 jobs. Construction also lost 5,000 jobs, the first losses in seven months, at a time of year when one would expect construction firms to need more employees. Large companies practically stopped hiring altogether, adding only 4,000 jobs -- the slowest performance in six months.
Gallup’s last report is a little more dated, but no more optimistic. The mid-month numbers show seasonally-adjusted unemployment sharply increasing from March’s 8.1 percent to 8.5 percent in April, while the percentage of Americans working part-time while wanting full-time work rose from 9.6 percent to 9.9 percent. Gallup warns that the numbers could “indicate a significant reversal in the recent downward trend of the government's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate.”
The actual jobless rate will rely on a quirk in the BLS measurement, as CNN pointed out in its coverage of the ADP report: “The unemployment rate is not expected to fall beyond its current 8.2 percent, unless more workers leave the labor force.” When people leave the work force, it improves the topline unemployment rate, a statistical point that hadn’t been an issue until the aftermath of the past recession. In order to understand that well-publicized rate, one has to keep in mind that it describes an increasingly smaller work force, as this BLS chart of civilian participation in the workforce over the last ten years demonstrates:
This hides the effects of poor job creation. Had the participation rate remained constant from pre-recession levels, the jobless rate would be around 12 percent at the moment. The BLS uses the same measures as it always has, but this particular calculation only works for comparative purposes in a stable working population. Even from the point of the recovery’s beginning in June 2009, we clearly have continued erosion.
In their book Debacle, John Lott and Grover Norquist compare the Obama recovery to that of the 1982 recovery under Ronald Reagan. The double-dip 1980-81 recession was longer and produced higher unemployment than that of the so-called Great Recession, and it followed a decade of stagnation, “stagflation,” high interest rates, ill-considered wage and price controls, and energy shocks. Yet in the 29 months that followed the 1982 recovery, the American economy expanded jobs by 8 percent. In contrast, the Obama recovery in the same period only grew jobs in the US by 0.25 percent:
The engine of job creation has been derailed. We are now years behind the curve, and as the economic indicators keep showing, we continue to do no more than tread water. Factory orders and durable goods hit three-year lows in March, and so it will come as no shock if jobs match that pattern. We will see whether the pessimistic indicators accurately predict the BLS employment report tomorrow. Given the rise of weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits and the recent history, the betting will be toward another month of slow job creation rather than a return to the relatively more robust winter growth figures.
What happens when job creation fails to maintain any momentum? The closer the election comes, the worse it is for President Obama. His campaign has lately occupied itself with just about every topic except the economy and job creation, including a silly attack on Mitt Romney as insufficiently ruthless to kill Osama bin Laden after months of painting him as a ruthless killer of jobs as a Bain executive. Whether it’s contraception or Swiss bank accounts, the Obama campaign seizes on any momentary distraction it can find to avert attention from jobs and the economy.
A poor report tomorrow will make that impossible, at least for a few days. The mild momentum of the winter would have given way to another stagnant spring, the third in a row, as David Gregory pointed out to Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner on Meet the Press in April. Even a mildly positive report – say, growth in the 165,000 range, as Wall Street Journal’s Marketwatch consensus expects, will raise questions about whether the current economic and regulatory climate will ever allow for the kind of recovery we saw in the 1980s, or for that matter, under George W. Bush after the 2003 recession.
If the White House doesn’t have any answers other than to point to Romney’s wealth and the Buffett Rule, Romney will be happy to discuss job creation and economic growth with voters instead.
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Even After Jobless Claims, Jobs Picture Isn’t Pretty
www.wsj.com
By Paul Vigna
We got two more pieces of the jobs picture this morning. Let’s look at them:
First, initial claims took a big dive last week, dropping 27,000 to 365,000. You can all breathe now. It’s not all sun and roses, of course. Last week’s initial claims were revised higher, as they are seemingly every week, to 392,000, a distressing number. The four-week average nudged up by 750 to 383,000, still too high.
Also, announced jobs cuts rose 7.1% in April, according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas, to 40,599 — and up 11.2% from last April — another bit of evidence that the jobs market isn’t doing well.
The research firm noted that a little less than 25% of the cuts came from the education sector, as the public sector deals with its own crippling debt load. Still, Challenger put a hedging spin on it.
“While job gains may indeed hit a lull in the coming months, we do not foresee a sudden upsurge in downsizing activity,” the firm wrote.
To help you sift through the morass, we’d like to create another in a string of anecdotal indicators that don’t really mean anything but are fun to play around with anyway, like the Super Bowl indicator, the hemline index, and the underwear index. We’ve come up this: the my-doctor-says-people-can’t-find-jobs index.
This one is based on a complex mathematical formula developed by a team of MIT grad students working in remote locations around the country and it goes something like this: MarketBeat’s doctor said yesterday that the people coming into his office that don’t have jobs still can’t find jobs. So, there. Try and deconstruct that one, you raging bulls.
Now then, all that considered, where exactly do we stand on the jobs front? Here’s a scorecard:
-Weekly jobless claims are sitting around 383,000, the four-week average.
-ADP pegs April private-sector job growth at 119,000.
-TrimTabs pegged April jobs growth at 116,000.
-Announced layoffs are rising, as per Challenger, Gray.
-Last month, the BLS reported 120,000 jobs were created in March. The Street expects that tomorrow, the BLS will report 168,000 jobs were created.
-The official unemployment rate is 8.2% — the so-called U-3 — but everybody understands by now that numbers excludes millions who have either dropped out of the labor force, or can’t find full-time work. A broader measure, the U-6, is at 14.5%.
Where’s that leave us? Well, it leaves us where our doctor said it does. People without jobs are still having a hard time finding jobs.
And take two of these and call him in the morning.
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Ironic considering your "Obama is whooping my ass" posts a few months ago. Now you have nothing to say. How does it feel eating crow? You were cumming in your pants over holiday retail temp jobs when the rest of us called this coming. Now you're crying about how we don't praise Obama for creating 2 months worth of minimum wage jobs, haha.
Your hypocrisy is amazing. I'll give you credit, though, as I expected you to avoid this thread.
why would I avoid a hypocrite like you?..why are your figures better than anyone elses'?.....again..the figures are great when you tout them..when I tout them they are wrong and made up
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why would I avoid a hypocrite like you?..why are your figures better than anyone elses'?.....again..the figures are great when you tout them..when I tout them they are wrong and made up
Why on earth would anyone tout Osama's utterly pathetic economic record in the first place?
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Why on earth would anyone tout Osama's utterly pathetic economic record in the first place?
I never touted his overall record I did simply crow somewhat when the figures looked good for him month to month....why are you so biased?
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I never touted his overall record I did simply crow somewhat when the figures looked good for him month to month....why are you so biased?
I'm not biased in the least. The figures are absolutely atrocious. Only the willfully ignorant, stupid or dishonest consider Osama's fraudulent numbers to be anything but disastrous.
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I'm not biased in the least. The figures are absolutely atrocious. Only the willfully ignorant, stupid or dishonest consider Osama's fraudulent numbers to be anything but disastrous.
yet you never consider the numbers fraudulent when they re-inforce what you believe.....wow...thats my point exactly...hence why I say you are biased
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It's a bad report.
What else is there to say.
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yet you never consider the numbers fraudulent when they re-inforce what you believe.....wow...thats my point exactly...hence why I say you are biased
andre, you never look at what is behind the numbers...
the main reason the unemployment numbers have gone down at all is b/c ppl simply have stopped looking for work.
If you think that b/c the numbers going down b/c of that is good and something that should be celebrated, I really dont know what to say to you.
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Regardless of party, these are bad #s. The real unemployment # is higher. The number of people dropping from the workforce is particularly bad, wonder what % of those people have given up looking. Few would have imagined there would have been such a lackluster recovery. Nearly always more robust recoveries after recessions.
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andre, you never look at what is behind the numbers...
the main reason the unemployment numbers have gone down at all is b/c ppl simply have stopped looking for work.
If you think that b/c the numbers going down b/c of that is good and something that should be celebrated, I really dont know what to say to you.
not with an admin that is bent on causing the recovery to stumble by placing their social agenda ahead of the economic needs of the ppl.
I saw this coming from a ways back as did many other ppl.
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:). Business and the economy is on strike until reid and peolis and obama are gone. These three communist thugs have done incalculable damage to the nation.
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the main reason the unemployment numbers have gone down at all is b/c ppl simply have stopped looking for work.
Even the mainstream media pansies are finally starting to realize this, and arent trying to spin that anymore.
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Even the mainstream media pansies are finally starting to realize this, and arent trying to spin that anymore.
Te msm is in the business of shilling for Obama, not telling TJE truth.